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Revealed: The secret of victory votes to Ikulu
By Guardian on sunday team
19th September 2010
About ten regions holds crucial key to decide who will win or lose the election on October 31 this year, The Guardian on Sunday can reveal today.
Though traditionally the ruling party has enjoyed massive support in most of these regions, this time around newly registered young voters, slow economic growth and sharp divisions within CCM may change the way voters cast their ballots.
The results of a comprehensive analysis conducted by The Guardian on Sunday over the past four weeks show that these regions, apart from accounting for about 60 percent of all voters, are also in the thick of a tense debate over a few key issues that might swing the way they will vote in the October 31 general election.
The latest data from the National Electoral Commission shows that these 10 regions have the highest levels of voter registration, with 11,307,493 registered voters out of the total 19,000,000 throughout the 26 regions.
Our analysis, which among other things focused on voter demographics, found that the level of political awareness in these regions has risen dramatically, shifting public opinion away from the ruling party and toward the opposition, mainly Chadema.
The Guardian on Sunday analysis has also established that about 45 percent of voters in these regions are between the ages of 19 and 35, and are likely to have weaker ties to the ruling party.
The top ten regions which may decide this years election are Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Kagera, Shinyanga and Mbeya regions with a total of 6, 984, 957 registered eligible voters, which is 36 percent of the total registered voters.
The other remaining five regions are Morogoro, Dodoma, Tabora, Tanga and Mara regions with a total of 4,322,536 registered eligible voters, or 24 percent of total voters, according to our comprehensive analysis.
According to various independent campaign reports, the battle for State House has been dominated by competition between Chadema and CCM, with Civic United Front trailing in third.
Although in 2005 CCM commanded a landslide victory in the top five regions, averaging at 79 percent of the vote in each region, with Mbeya taking the lead in giving CCM 88 percent of its votes, this time around, the battle has shifted dramatically.
With the latest unconfirmed opinion polls showing a difference of only about 3 percent between CCM and Chadema, which together earned the support of 85 percent of those polled in the beginning of September by the Synovate Group, the battle in these crucial regions will surely be close.
However, according to our analysis, Dodoma, Tanga and Morogoro remain the ruling partys strongholds ahead of this years general election.
Though economically, these regions are still underdeveloped, their support to the ruling party remains solid despite pockets of opposition mainly in urban areas.
Mbeya and Kagera are no longer a safe bet for CCM, as sharp divisions continue to cost the ruling party, which might give Chadema and CUF a boost there.
While in 2005 the ruling party enjoyed massive support in Mbeya region fetching about 88 percent of the total votes, this time around, divisions within the ruling party are expected to cost its support in the area. Already Chadema is gaining ground in the southern region of Mbeya, with the latest campaign reports predicting a tough battle ahead.
Though during his campaign rally recently in Mbeya, President Kikwete enjoyed overwhelming crowds, inside reports indicate clearly that the polling trend will this time around dent CCMs votes there heavily.
The other five regions remain the most challenging areas for the ruling party, as Chadema continues to capitalise on CCMs failures to deliver on past campaign promises.
Though the CCMs administration invested heavily in piped water from Lake Victoria to Shinyanga region a few years ago at a cost of over $200 million, the region remains a contentious area for the ruling party according to the latest campaign reports.
Like Mwanza, the collapse of the cotton sector and a prolonged drought that has adversely affected livestock keeping in the region has left millions in abject poverty and turned voters hostile to the ruling party.
Shinyanga had been among the top regions in livestock keeping during the past three decades, making its people the richest among Sukumaland communities, but due to the lack of a comprehensive economic plan for the region, its once rich people are now struggling.
Even in the commercial capital Dar es Salaam, which in 2005 gave CCM 75 percent of its votes, the competition this time around has become tougher than in the last election.
As the most populated and most developed part of the country, the level of civic education and political awareness has been growing in the region over the past few years, making it a tougher battlefield for the ruling party.
It will be remembered that during the first multiparty election in 1995, some dubious tricks were applied to rescue the ruling party, after both election pundits and intelligence analysts sensed that the opposition was set to win about 75 percent of the vote.
This time around, with unemployment rates surging especially among youths and with poor infrastructure creating traffic jams and a lack of clean piped water, there may be even more for Dar es Salaam residents to hold against CCM.
In general, these 10 regions are facing a number of issues ranging from multinational land grabs and mining schemes to border insecurity and rising unemployment.
For instance while Morogoro is making land grabbing a crucial issue, in Mwanza and Shinyanga, mining related issues plus dwindling cotton farming will shape the way voters cast their ballots in the October 31 poll.
Cotton has been the backbone of the regions' economy for decades before the sector collapsed in the 1990s due to massive corruption within the cooperative unions as well as global market factors.
Just two weeks ago, CCM presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete was forced to calm the situation in Mwanza region by announcing that the government would cover the Sh9billion pending debt for Nyanza Cooperative Union, an umbrella organization representing a million cotton farmers in the region.
The pathetic situation of Nyanza Cooperative Union has been used as a stepping stone by various political parties mainly CCM for more than a decade now, but the once prosperous union in Africa has failed to recover.
Apart from a decade-long debate over mining policies in these regions, insecurity in Lake Victoria caused by rampant piracy in addition to the foundering Nile Perch sector which directly employs 300,000 people as well as another 3 million indirectly will also surely be on the minds of voters as they head to polls.
In Mara region, mining, fishing, insecurity and massive poverty are all key issues that will shape how voters cast their ballots in the region, according to analysis by the Guardian on Sunday.
The controversial Meremeta mining deal that cost the nation $200 million and forced the eviction of thousands of villagers around Buhemba and Nyamongo mines is at the top of the agenda there and is already being capitalised upon by Chademas Dr. Wilibrod Slaa.
SOURCE: GUARDIAN ON SUNDAY
By Guardian on sunday team
19th September 2010
About ten regions holds crucial key to decide who will win or lose the election on October 31 this year, The Guardian on Sunday can reveal today.
Though traditionally the ruling party has enjoyed massive support in most of these regions, this time around newly registered young voters, slow economic growth and sharp divisions within CCM may change the way voters cast their ballots.
The results of a comprehensive analysis conducted by The Guardian on Sunday over the past four weeks show that these regions, apart from accounting for about 60 percent of all voters, are also in the thick of a tense debate over a few key issues that might swing the way they will vote in the October 31 general election.
The latest data from the National Electoral Commission shows that these 10 regions have the highest levels of voter registration, with 11,307,493 registered voters out of the total 19,000,000 throughout the 26 regions.
Our analysis, which among other things focused on voter demographics, found that the level of political awareness in these regions has risen dramatically, shifting public opinion away from the ruling party and toward the opposition, mainly Chadema.
The Guardian on Sunday analysis has also established that about 45 percent of voters in these regions are between the ages of 19 and 35, and are likely to have weaker ties to the ruling party.
The top ten regions which may decide this years election are Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Kagera, Shinyanga and Mbeya regions with a total of 6, 984, 957 registered eligible voters, which is 36 percent of the total registered voters.
The other remaining five regions are Morogoro, Dodoma, Tabora, Tanga and Mara regions with a total of 4,322,536 registered eligible voters, or 24 percent of total voters, according to our comprehensive analysis.
According to various independent campaign reports, the battle for State House has been dominated by competition between Chadema and CCM, with Civic United Front trailing in third.
Although in 2005 CCM commanded a landslide victory in the top five regions, averaging at 79 percent of the vote in each region, with Mbeya taking the lead in giving CCM 88 percent of its votes, this time around, the battle has shifted dramatically.
With the latest unconfirmed opinion polls showing a difference of only about 3 percent between CCM and Chadema, which together earned the support of 85 percent of those polled in the beginning of September by the Synovate Group, the battle in these crucial regions will surely be close.
However, according to our analysis, Dodoma, Tanga and Morogoro remain the ruling partys strongholds ahead of this years general election.
Though economically, these regions are still underdeveloped, their support to the ruling party remains solid despite pockets of opposition mainly in urban areas.
Mbeya and Kagera are no longer a safe bet for CCM, as sharp divisions continue to cost the ruling party, which might give Chadema and CUF a boost there.
While in 2005 the ruling party enjoyed massive support in Mbeya region fetching about 88 percent of the total votes, this time around, divisions within the ruling party are expected to cost its support in the area. Already Chadema is gaining ground in the southern region of Mbeya, with the latest campaign reports predicting a tough battle ahead.
Though during his campaign rally recently in Mbeya, President Kikwete enjoyed overwhelming crowds, inside reports indicate clearly that the polling trend will this time around dent CCMs votes there heavily.
The other five regions remain the most challenging areas for the ruling party, as Chadema continues to capitalise on CCMs failures to deliver on past campaign promises.
Though the CCMs administration invested heavily in piped water from Lake Victoria to Shinyanga region a few years ago at a cost of over $200 million, the region remains a contentious area for the ruling party according to the latest campaign reports.
Like Mwanza, the collapse of the cotton sector and a prolonged drought that has adversely affected livestock keeping in the region has left millions in abject poverty and turned voters hostile to the ruling party.
Shinyanga had been among the top regions in livestock keeping during the past three decades, making its people the richest among Sukumaland communities, but due to the lack of a comprehensive economic plan for the region, its once rich people are now struggling.
Even in the commercial capital Dar es Salaam, which in 2005 gave CCM 75 percent of its votes, the competition this time around has become tougher than in the last election.
As the most populated and most developed part of the country, the level of civic education and political awareness has been growing in the region over the past few years, making it a tougher battlefield for the ruling party.
It will be remembered that during the first multiparty election in 1995, some dubious tricks were applied to rescue the ruling party, after both election pundits and intelligence analysts sensed that the opposition was set to win about 75 percent of the vote.
This time around, with unemployment rates surging especially among youths and with poor infrastructure creating traffic jams and a lack of clean piped water, there may be even more for Dar es Salaam residents to hold against CCM.
In general, these 10 regions are facing a number of issues ranging from multinational land grabs and mining schemes to border insecurity and rising unemployment.
For instance while Morogoro is making land grabbing a crucial issue, in Mwanza and Shinyanga, mining related issues plus dwindling cotton farming will shape the way voters cast their ballots in the October 31 poll.
Cotton has been the backbone of the regions' economy for decades before the sector collapsed in the 1990s due to massive corruption within the cooperative unions as well as global market factors.
Just two weeks ago, CCM presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete was forced to calm the situation in Mwanza region by announcing that the government would cover the Sh9billion pending debt for Nyanza Cooperative Union, an umbrella organization representing a million cotton farmers in the region.
The pathetic situation of Nyanza Cooperative Union has been used as a stepping stone by various political parties mainly CCM for more than a decade now, but the once prosperous union in Africa has failed to recover.
Apart from a decade-long debate over mining policies in these regions, insecurity in Lake Victoria caused by rampant piracy in addition to the foundering Nile Perch sector which directly employs 300,000 people as well as another 3 million indirectly will also surely be on the minds of voters as they head to polls.
In Mara region, mining, fishing, insecurity and massive poverty are all key issues that will shape how voters cast their ballots in the region, according to analysis by the Guardian on Sunday.
The controversial Meremeta mining deal that cost the nation $200 million and forced the eviction of thousands of villagers around Buhemba and Nyamongo mines is at the top of the agenda there and is already being capitalised upon by Chademas Dr. Wilibrod Slaa.
SOURCE: GUARDIAN ON SUNDAY
