Nini Athari kwa nchi za East Afrika kutokana na kujitoa kwa Uingereza EU?

MOTOCHINI

MOTOCHINI

JF-Expert Member
Jan 20, 2014
27,574
29,959
Kwanza nipende kusema kuwa kila zuri lina ubaya wake,
Nasema zuri kwakuwa wengi wa raia wa uingereza wameamua hivyo,
Lakini je zuri hilo lina ubaya wake?
na nikwa waingereza pekee?
jibu ni hapana wengi wata athirika .

Kuathirika kutatofautiana na ukubwa pia na utegemezi wa nchi.

Kwahapa East Afrika nchi itakayo athirika zaid ni Kenya,

Kwanini nasema Kenya!

Mara baada ya kutangazwa kwa matokeo hayo nimemuona Gavana wa Benk kuu ya kenya haraka sana
Akitoa kauli ya mipango ya kujihami na hilo,

Hasa akisema atajitahidi kudhibiti sh ya kenya isiporomoke zaidi,
japo najua kuporomoka lazima.

Nimejiuliza sana kwanini Gavana wa benki kuu ya Kenya kawa faster hivi kulikoni?

Nikakumbuka kuwa

1. Kenya inauza maua kwa kiasi kikubwa ulaya na asilimia kubwa ya soko lamaua ni Uingereza

2. Kama ilivyo namba moja Kenya inapeleka na kuuza sana majani ya chai
Na soko kubwa la bidhaa hiyo ni uingereza

3. Kenya ndio nchi inayo pokea kiwango kikubwa cha misaada kutoka Uingereza


4. Hapa inajumuisha nchi zote ,
Kwa wafanya biashara wote hapa lazima kutakuwa na usumbufu wa kuingia ulaya

Unapo kuwa na shida ulaya na uingereza itakulazimu kutafuta hati zakusafiria mbili tofauti

Yaani kama ilivyo sasa
Ukiwa uingereza utakwenda ufaransa bila tatizo lakini
Hapo baadae haitakuwa hivyo
Hii italeta usumbufu kwa nchi nyingi sana.

Mwisho nikuwa kujitenga naona kuna athari nyingi kuliko kuwa pamoja
Hayo ni maoni yangu tu
 
Hayo sio maoni yako Bali ni mtazamo wako..sijapinga ulichokisema.
 
jambo la kufurahia nikua ulipewa uhuru wa kufikiria...nanikweli unautumia.a forest of words but a desert of points
 
Brexit will have little impact on Kenya. It is no longer the biggest trading partner for Kenya, that position was taken by the US long time ago. Britain has been on a decline for a long time. The pound does not worry us much it's the dollar that is currency for international trade. UK big banks like Baclays were already leaving Kenya. Brexit will only hasten England's decline because Scotland voted to stay in EU by 62%.

There is a direct implications on East Africa Community though. We need to pay more attention than ever to the voices that raise issues on free movement of people and labour issues here in EAC. We should go slow if not stop free movement of labour and people until the planned referendum on EA Federation is held or we risk EAC collapsing all together. Immigration should only be governed by elected representatives of the people and not governed by Presidents, ministers, a secretariat, a commission, council or community. Immigration and people can only be governed by their representatives that they elected directly. I say this because the EU veered off its lane of facilitating international trade for Europe and got itself involved in politics and foreign policy decisions of other countries.
Most rural populations in Britain, USA, Africa and here in East Africa have been left behind by globalization, tech, and internet age. The are going to resent anything they see to be a threat to them. Their public reaction is shown through resentment and fears over immigration ( free movement of labour and people) and populism. This is dangerous especially in this tech age where politicians can test their popularity on any issue using social media without the help of broadcast media. That is why you see popularism on the right (Donald Trump) and on the left ( Bernie) in USA.

The lesson for East Africa and EAC is that pay attention to the concerns of East Africans as we move ahead with integration agenda. Immigration ( free movement of labour and people) here should be handled carefully if not by peoples elected representatives. I am for free movement of people here in East Africa but only through a Federation and governed by a house of representatives. Neither should EAC get involved in this that are not trade or economy. East Africa has already tested EAC collapse we should not test it again when we are still recovering from the last one.
 
Kwazna kabisa, kama mjuavyo mimi mkenya.

Daima.

My observation and take :

Now as you also know, UK is a top top top export destination for Kenyan goods. Like cut flowers and fresh produce. The distinct possibility that there will be less demand from the brits can cause jitters among local exporters and lead to a weaker shilling, which may theoretically boost exports, but alas, to a non existent market. Also, such a decline in demand for key exports can cause the forex situation to be precarious in Kenya.And we need to buy vitals like petroleum with that forex. Such a scenario on a bad turn of luck may lead to austerity measures, you will be queuing to buy bread, it wont be funny. Kenya currently has a reserve of 5.6 Bln $ ,which covers around 5 months of exports.So mister governor of Central bank was in order to make a statement to allay fears.

Remember Kenya, more than any other EAC country, is more intimately tied to the global financial system, of which London is arguably the epicentre of. Any shocks there and it hits us first before Uganda for instance. So the goings on in London affect us ALL from the mama mboga to the University professor to the professional footballer etc etc.

We should never tie ourselves to one entity i.e. we are now pro this or pro that but strive to be independent, and self sufficient, something they call autarky. Sadly, we haven't achieved this.

As an illustration of my point, the SA rand has plunged in the last 24 hours to lows not seen since 2008:
EWN - Eyewitness News — Rand weakens by over 8% following Brexit vote


The Egyptian central bank governor am sure will say something soon, brits pour alot of forex there. I can't seem to find the link to that news.

Mauritius are putting contingency measures as we speak.:
Mauritius central bank ready to act on any fallout from UK vote

Am sure more will follow soon.
 
MOTOCHINI said:
Kwanza nipende kusema kuwa kila zuri lina ubaya wake,
Nasema zuri kwakuwa wengi wa raia wa uingereza wameamua hivyo,
Lakini je zuri hilo lina ubaya wake?
na nikwa waingereza pekee?
jibu ni hapana wengi wata athirika .

Kuathirika kutatofautiana na ukubwa pia na utegemezi wa nchi.

Kwahapa East Afrika nchi itakayo athirika zaid ni Kenya,

Kwanini nasema Kenya!

Mara baada ya kutangazwa kwa matokeo hayo nimemuona Gavana wa Benk kuu ya kenya haraka sana
Akitoa kauli ya mipango ya kujihami na hilo,

Hasa akisema atajitahidi kudhibiti sh ya kenya isiporomoke zaidi,
japo najua kuporomoka lazima.

Nimejiuliza sana kwanini Gavana wa benki kuu ya Kenya kawa faster hivi kulikoni?

Nikakumbuka kuwa

1. Kenya inauza maua kwa kiasi kikubwa ulaya na asilimia kubwa ya soko lamaua ni Uingereza

2. Kama ilivyo namba moja Kenya inapeleka na kuuza sana majani ya chai
Na soko kubwa la bidhaa hiyo ni uingereza

3. Kenya ndio nchi inayo pokea kiwango kikubwa cha misaada kutoka Uingereza


4. Hapa inajumuisha nchi zote ,
Kwa wafanya biashara wote hapa lazima kutakuwa na usumbufu wa kuingia ulaya

Unapo kuwa na shida ulaya na uingereza itakulazimu kutafuta hati zakusafiria mbili tofauti

Yaani kama ilivyo sasa
Ukiwa uingereza utakwenda ufaransa bila tatizo lakini
Hapo baadae haitakuwa hivyo
Hii italeta usumbufu kwa nchi nyingi sana.

Mwisho nikuwa kujitenga naona kuna athari nyingi kuliko kuwa pamoja
Hayo ni maoni yangu tu
Click to expand...
Hapo namba 3 umekosea na kuhata kabisaa, Kenya ndo inaongoza kwa biashara na UK. We borrow money on the international financial markets kuziba pungufu za bajeti. Get your facts right.
Msaada kama za kuhifadhi wanyama pori au kupunguza magonjwa/ kujenga shule etc etc toka uingereza , hayahusiani na hali ya uchumi wala siasa, bali ni ya kibinadamu, yaani humanitarian aid.
 
gp1rooney said:
Wachezaji mpira vp,hawataathrika
Click to expand...
Wataathirika mno. Hasa upande wa fedha wanazolipwa na vibali vya kazi.
hapa chini nime pata hii ripoti kutoka Forbes magazine :

11 Ways Brexit Will Impact The Premier League And Soccer Worldwide - Forbes

Britain woke up this morning facing a post Brexit vote hangover of masll take years for the British government to negotiate an exit from the European Union and the transition period will generate a great deal of uncertainty.
The withdrawal of the UK from the European Union will touch almost every facet of British life, soccer included.
Here is a snapshot of how soccer will – or may – be impacted by Thursday’s decision of the British electorate to leave the European Union.

1. From now and until a full negotiated agreement is concluded British teams will be forced to deal with all the risks associated with uncertainty and volatility. This volatility will impact on all facets of operations including players, broadcasters, sponsors and the fan base.

2. The UK pound immediately dropped in value and it could drop more in the coming months. The devaluation means that any British club will have to pay more when quoted a price by a foreign club in any other currency than the pound. It also means that Premier League teams will become “less expensive” to potential foreign owners. By the same token existing foreign owners will see the value of their assets shrink until the pound recovers its pre-vote value.

3. Transfer fees are often staged and the drop in the pound will have a negative impact on finances if the club has not protected itself through some form of currency hedging.

4. The Premier League is about to start a new three-year cycle of broadcast deals. Domestic TV deals with BT and Sky should not be impacted directly. But any foreign deals quoted in currencies other than the UK pound could hurt the Premier League on account of the devaluation of the pound. Conversely any foreign broadcasters that committed to paying in pounds could see a significant saving if the pound remains in the dole drums.

5. Britain is awash with foreign players – both from the EU and others from non-EU countries. Any players that regularly take their earning offshore are going to experience an immediate hit as the pound will be worth less when converted to foreign currencies such as the dollar.

6. The ability for players to move freely at the conclusion of their club contracts has been a fact since the EU ruled such over 20 years ago when it handed down the Bosman rule. The Bosman rule is a European Union law and it would no longer hold sway in Britain. However, in practice, it is difficult to see how the clock could be turned back, EU or no EU.

7. Up until the vote, EU players were free to sign for British teams. Non-EU players, including those from North America, faced a series of tests before qualifying for a work permit. The rules for non-EU players, in the short-term anyway, are unlikely to change.
For EU players it is almost certain that once the transition phase concludes and the UK has fully withdrawn from the EU, these players will be forced into the same process as non-EU players.Some of the initial rhetoric of “players losing their right to play” in the UK is excessive and over the top.
These players will just have to join the other less responsive and less timely line. Whichever process is finally put in place it is unlikely to impact players of great talent and reputation.
However, it will impact the EU players who have yet to prove themselves. An example would be the likes of French player N’Golo Kanté who arrived last summer at Leicester as a largely unknown player. Kanté morphed into a Premier League star as Leicester’s dream season evolved.
Would Manchester United have been able to sign a young Cristiano Ronaldo? In years to come these types of signing may not happen.

8. Premier League clubs spend a lot of money on scouting and recruiting European Union qualified youngsters for their Academy systems. That avenue will rapidly lead to a dead end. Conversely, the Premier League and others may be forced into developing “homegrown” talent, an area that many have accused them of neglecting.

9. British players plying their trade in other European Union leagues are relatively rare. It Nonetheless, British players, managers and coaches will, in the near future, no longer benefit from free movement to EU clubs. Many EU leagues restrict the number of non-EU players.

10. As the transition arrangements are negotiated there may be a temptation for the wealthy Premier League clubs to stockpile EU based players in the hope that they can negotiate a grandfather clause that might allow such players to slip under the work permit wire.

11. Last but not least, expect the words “salary cap” and “Premier League” to become a hot topic. A few months ago the Premier League tweaked and then extended its “short term control measure” for another three years.
The short term measure is essentially a form of a soft salary cap. The short term measure is a carefully crafted mechanism to avoid contravening a core European Union regulation that guarantees the free movement of capital and labor.”Hard” salary caps run afoul of that EU principle.
With such a principle negated the Premier League and other UK leagues could move aggressively to institute hard salary caps.

11 Ways Brexit Will Impact The Premier League And Soccer Worldwide
 
Kenya's Treasury projects no immediate impact on the country's economy following a landmark decision by British citizens to quit the European Union (EU) in a hugely divisive vote.
Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said Friday that while Kenyan officials are keenly monitoring the unfolding events in Britain, which is Kenya’s former colonial master and once biggest trading partner, Kenya is adequately buffered against any possible immediate external shocks arising from the decision.
“We do not anticipate any adverse impact on the economy in the short term. We are however monitoring,” said Mr Rotich.
“The government and the country has sufficient resources that we can use to stabilise the economy in case of any impact we could have. We already have a build-up of reserves and a caution facility from the IMF to safeguard against any possible shocks should there be any,” he added.
He said it is too early to make an assessment at the moment of the potential impacts to the Kenyan economy.
“Of course the weakening of the sterling pound means the strengthening of the Kenya shilling and there are impacts from our exports to Kenya and imports to the UK and this will impact the flow of goods. We expect positive and both negatives and our jobs is monitor and take appropriate action to the direct and indirect impact,” he said.
READ: British Prime Minister to resign following EU referendum
ALSO READ: CBK says ready to intervene amid Brexit
"No need to panic"
His comments were echoed by economist and University of Nairobi lecturer Prof Michael Chege who said Kenyans should not panic about an adverse economic impact of the UK's vote to leave the European bloc.
Prof Chege said trade tariffs under the aegis of the European and non-EU countries would be renegotiated over a two year period, hence giving Kenya adequate time to monitor and adapt.
The don said most of Kenya's international trade had shifted from the UK to her regional neighbours like Uganda and Rwanda.
He however said Kenya’s Tourism could be hit hard as it would become costlier for British travellers to tour Kenya.
Imports from the UK are also bound to be cheaper following the weakening of the sterling pound, he said.
"Our exporters to the UK will suffer a loss due to the weaker pound sterling. Our imports from the UK (including used cars, machinery, medicine) will be cheaper relative to China, Japan etc. paying for university education in UK by Kenyans will be cheaper. Tariffs facing Kenyan exports to the UK to known over the two years of exit negotiations between UK and Europeans", said Prof Chege.



Treasury sees no short-term impact of Brexit on Kenyan economy
 
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