Rev. Kishoka
JF-Expert Member
- Mar 7, 2006
- 4,526
- 1,529
Habari hii imenisisimua na kunifurahisha sana. Ni wazi kabisa Buhari na Babantunde wamekuja kwa nia safi ya kufufua uchumi na kuimarisha thamani ya sarafu ya Nigeria Naira.
Tanzania tumefungulia mbwa kwenye imports, mpaka vijiti vya kutoa nyama kwenye meno tunaagiza na si ajabu vinatengenezwa kwa miti kutoka Mufindi!
I hope Rais wa tano pamoja na changamoto zote za kujenga umoja wa kitaifa, suala hili la kurudisha thamani ya shilingi litapewa kipaumbele na udharura!
Can Nigeria's Buhari take on the import monster and win? | The Economist
Godwin Emefiele, the governor of Nigerias central bank, has been criticised in recent weeks for attempting to prop up the value of the naira, the countrys currency, by restricting access to foreign exchange and banning imports of certain goods. In the absence of a clear economic strategy from the countrys new president, Muhammadu Buhari, Mr Emefiele is taking an increasingly central role in determining Nigerias industrial policy. His tactics sound familiar. As this article from The Economist archives shows, Nigeria has pursued a protectionist policy like this before, in 1984under Muhammadu Buhari, a young general who had won the presidency in a coup on December 31 1983.
Nigerians reluctant to tighten their belts for their former civilian leaders were ordered by the soldiers this week to take in another notch. Nigeria's central bank announced a sharp cut in foreign ex-change available for imports
At 287m naira ($380m) a month, the new limit is less than half as much as Nigeria spent on merchandise and invisi-bles last year. It is almost a third lower even than the tough target set by ex-President Shehu Shagari in the budget presented two days before Major-Gener-al Muhammadu Buhari's coup.
Though the cut may turn out to be less swingeing than it soundssenior officials told commercial bankers in London this week that a little over 4 billion naira will be made available for the yearthere is no doubt that the new government means to cut imports heftily. Foreign bankers and creditors are happy. They see it as a sign that Nigeria is serious about living within its shrinking means.
Export earnings from oil dropped from $25 billion in 1980 to just under $10 billion in 1983. Though a swift rise in imports from $11.8 billion in 1979 to $18.4 billion in 1981 was checked in 1982, Nigeria amassed a current-account deficit of some $16.5 billion in the three years from 1981.
A deep cut in the import bill will free foreign exchange to service Nigeria's ex-ternal debt. This is likely to take 30-40% of export earnings in each of the next few years. But a big fall in imports could ruin the new regime's reputation at home. It is popular at the moment. Though General Buhari has promised no free lunches, people expect him to bring down prices and increase supplies of essential goods. They were beginning to grouse that he was moving too slowlybut cutting im-ports was not the step most had in mind.
Many consumer goods, including ba-sics such as detergents andcooking oil, are already scarce. Import restraints since April, 1982, and the growing reluctance of foreign suppliers to finance trade with slow-paying Nigeria have combined to reduce both the volume and the dollar value of imports in 1983 to below their 1980 level. Attempts by over-zealous sol-diers in the first weeks after the coup to impose bargain prices in the shops have made shortages worse as traders hoard now what they managed to hide then. Even black-market champagne and French perfume are vanishing as soldiers patrol the borders for smuggling.
Manufacturers are feeling the pinch the most. Nigeria buys about 75% of its industry's raw materials abroad. More than 100 businesses stopped production in 1983 because they could not get foreign exchange for imports. Many employees are taking next Christmas's holiday now. Registered unemployment, up by more than 40% in 1982, is still rising. So is inflation, conservatively estimated at an annual 20%.
Food supplies are affected too, though so far in towns high prices are a bigger complaint than shortages. Nigeria spent some $1.5 billion in 1983 on food im-ports, including 2m tons of grain. It is likely to need $2 billion this year. Drought in the north may have reduced the grain harvest by up to 50%, and there is an outbreak of rinderpest in cattle.
Under still imprecise new rules, 58% of imports will be raw materials and indus-trial spare-parts; 12%, food; 18%, con-sumer goods; and 12% for invisibles, such as foreign travel and management-fee remittances. This is in sharp contrast to the pattern of the past few years; when consumer goods accounted for 40% of all imports and raw materials only 25%.
The new government says it will keep prices of essentials down by cutting out middlemen who used to take a cut on each of five or six transactions between ship and shop. This sounds optimistic, but the true level of Nigeria's imports has long been inflated by overinvoicing and false pricing. Kicking out the crooks at home and buying more competitively abroad should reduce the fall in the volume of imports, officials hope.
Previous attempts to order Nigeria's foreign-exchange priorities have foun-dered on corruption and inefficiency. Will General Buhari and his powerful number two, Major-General Babantunde Idiagbon, do better?
On corruption, modest improvement is likely. Many of the biggest suspected wrongdoers have already left. General Buhari has said there will be no witch-hunt. He probably cannot afford one.
Tanzania tumefungulia mbwa kwenye imports, mpaka vijiti vya kutoa nyama kwenye meno tunaagiza na si ajabu vinatengenezwa kwa miti kutoka Mufindi!
I hope Rais wa tano pamoja na changamoto zote za kujenga umoja wa kitaifa, suala hili la kurudisha thamani ya shilingi litapewa kipaumbele na udharura!
Can Nigeria's Buhari take on the import monster and win? | The Economist
Godwin Emefiele, the governor of Nigerias central bank, has been criticised in recent weeks for attempting to prop up the value of the naira, the countrys currency, by restricting access to foreign exchange and banning imports of certain goods. In the absence of a clear economic strategy from the countrys new president, Muhammadu Buhari, Mr Emefiele is taking an increasingly central role in determining Nigerias industrial policy. His tactics sound familiar. As this article from The Economist archives shows, Nigeria has pursued a protectionist policy like this before, in 1984under Muhammadu Buhari, a young general who had won the presidency in a coup on December 31 1983.
Nigerians reluctant to tighten their belts for their former civilian leaders were ordered by the soldiers this week to take in another notch. Nigeria's central bank announced a sharp cut in foreign ex-change available for imports
At 287m naira ($380m) a month, the new limit is less than half as much as Nigeria spent on merchandise and invisi-bles last year. It is almost a third lower even than the tough target set by ex-President Shehu Shagari in the budget presented two days before Major-Gener-al Muhammadu Buhari's coup.
Though the cut may turn out to be less swingeing than it soundssenior officials told commercial bankers in London this week that a little over 4 billion naira will be made available for the yearthere is no doubt that the new government means to cut imports heftily. Foreign bankers and creditors are happy. They see it as a sign that Nigeria is serious about living within its shrinking means.
Export earnings from oil dropped from $25 billion in 1980 to just under $10 billion in 1983. Though a swift rise in imports from $11.8 billion in 1979 to $18.4 billion in 1981 was checked in 1982, Nigeria amassed a current-account deficit of some $16.5 billion in the three years from 1981.
A deep cut in the import bill will free foreign exchange to service Nigeria's ex-ternal debt. This is likely to take 30-40% of export earnings in each of the next few years. But a big fall in imports could ruin the new regime's reputation at home. It is popular at the moment. Though General Buhari has promised no free lunches, people expect him to bring down prices and increase supplies of essential goods. They were beginning to grouse that he was moving too slowlybut cutting im-ports was not the step most had in mind.
Many consumer goods, including ba-sics such as detergents andcooking oil, are already scarce. Import restraints since April, 1982, and the growing reluctance of foreign suppliers to finance trade with slow-paying Nigeria have combined to reduce both the volume and the dollar value of imports in 1983 to below their 1980 level. Attempts by over-zealous sol-diers in the first weeks after the coup to impose bargain prices in the shops have made shortages worse as traders hoard now what they managed to hide then. Even black-market champagne and French perfume are vanishing as soldiers patrol the borders for smuggling.
Manufacturers are feeling the pinch the most. Nigeria buys about 75% of its industry's raw materials abroad. More than 100 businesses stopped production in 1983 because they could not get foreign exchange for imports. Many employees are taking next Christmas's holiday now. Registered unemployment, up by more than 40% in 1982, is still rising. So is inflation, conservatively estimated at an annual 20%.
Food supplies are affected too, though so far in towns high prices are a bigger complaint than shortages. Nigeria spent some $1.5 billion in 1983 on food im-ports, including 2m tons of grain. It is likely to need $2 billion this year. Drought in the north may have reduced the grain harvest by up to 50%, and there is an outbreak of rinderpest in cattle.
Under still imprecise new rules, 58% of imports will be raw materials and indus-trial spare-parts; 12%, food; 18%, con-sumer goods; and 12% for invisibles, such as foreign travel and management-fee remittances. This is in sharp contrast to the pattern of the past few years; when consumer goods accounted for 40% of all imports and raw materials only 25%.
The new government says it will keep prices of essentials down by cutting out middlemen who used to take a cut on each of five or six transactions between ship and shop. This sounds optimistic, but the true level of Nigeria's imports has long been inflated by overinvoicing and false pricing. Kicking out the crooks at home and buying more competitively abroad should reduce the fall in the volume of imports, officials hope.
Previous attempts to order Nigeria's foreign-exchange priorities have foun-dered on corruption and inefficiency. Will General Buhari and his powerful number two, Major-General Babantunde Idiagbon, do better?
On corruption, modest improvement is likely. Many of the biggest suspected wrongdoers have already left. General Buhari has said there will be no witch-hunt. He probably cannot afford one.
