"Naomba Shilingi ishuke ifikie 5,000 kwa dola?" Why?

Siku moja nilialikwa na mtu mmoja mheshimiwa sana huko mitaa ya katikati ya Dar ktk Mhotel mkubwa, nikajua leo mambo safi. Nikakaribishwa chumba fulani, kuingia ndani nikakuta mamama kibao na vipeperushi lundo.

Mara nikapewa mtu anielekeze cha kufanya, nilivyogundua ni hawa jamaa wa milele living,ilibidi niombe kuonyeshwa chumba kikubwa ili niingie mitini.

Hawa jamaa wanawaumiza sana Wabongo wenzetu, siku hizi mpaka kwenye mabasi ni milele living hadi inaudhi.

Lakini ndio soko huria hilo, tuvumilie.
 
Matatizo ya kuangalia exchange rate in isolation.

Shilingi ikishuka kufikia $1 = Tsh 5000, katika nchi ambayo haina uzalishaji na ina import kila kitu mpaka pini, importers wata shift mzigo na kuuza vitu kwa bei iliyo sawa na gharama zao za import, arguably hata zaidi.

Kwa hiyo tutarudi pale pale, shilingi itashuka thamani, bei za vitu zitapanda. Mwisho tutahitaji kwenda dukani na mkokoteni uliojaa noti ili kununua mkate mmoja kama Zimbabwe.

Utakuwa na mshahara wa shilingi milioni 34 kwa mwezi, lakini hiyo milioni 34 itashuka thamani, utanunua vitu hivi hivi unavyoweza kununua leo.

Angalia uchumi kutoka upande wa uzalishaji, sio upande wa exchange rates.

Mi nilifikiri unaomba shilingi ishuke ili export zako ziwe more attractive kama wanavyofanya artificially huko China. Currency depreciation inakuwa attractive kama unazalisha vya kutosha kwa kuwa hii inaleta competitive advantage in the world market. Sisi hatuna uzalishaji wa kiwango hiki.
 
Sred hii inakaribia kutimiza miezi 2, wote wanaochangia hakuna aliojaribu kujibu maswali ya msingi yaliyopo, wote wanakimbilia kuishambulia, kisa ni dola na dhana potofu iliy ojengeka miongoni mwa o kuhusu Direct Selling/NWM/MLM, ni ofu na woga tu.
Woga na ofu ya mfumo huu ndo ilinisukuma kuufanyia utafiti na kujifunza zaidi na kugundua mengi ambayo wengi hawajayajua, kwangu ilikuwa rahisi kwa sababu kusoma vitabu ni sehemu ya kautamaduni kangu tangu sekondari.
 
You might be doing things again and again but not making progress and doing things smartly that actually making progress.

For instance,you might be applying for jobs and getting interviews tens of times in a year but no offers,but you feel you are doing something.....and on the other side some one is applying a few times, but land a new job every 2 or three years.I think the effective one is the later.

The same thing applies in business dynamics,you have to know ways which actually works,not just because some big hot shots like Warren Buffet or Clinton are prophesing about it.Mind you improvement based on performance feedback should be on mind constantly.

Every one knows the how effective networking can bring business to the next kevel,but the network should be based on genuine ground with a focus on common goal.it is like a engine of a car,made of different subsystems,working together with a common aim to provide motion.

For instance,in our country we see Azam doing marvelous,this is because,the company has established a concrette network for distribution,marketing and selling of her products.
 
Sred hii inakaribia kutimiza miezi 2, wote wanaochangia hakuna aliojaribu kujibu maswali ya msingi yaliyopo,

Thread yako maswali yake yamelenga ku-drop names zaidi ya msingi. Mimi siamini katika authority ya majina, naamini katika principles na results.

Concept kubwa unayoiadvance katika thread ni kwamba kadiri shilingi inavyoshuka thamani kulinganisha na dola, wanaolipwa kwa dola wanafaidi. Hili linaweza kuwa kweli kama thamani inashuka pole pole, lakini thamani ikishuka sana kutakuwa na inflation kubwa kiasi ya kwamba wanaolipwa dola watapata shilingi nyingi, lakini hazitawasaidia kwa sababu bei za vitu zitakuwa kubwa.

Huwezi kuongelea maswali ya msingi kutojibiwa bila kujibu swali hili. Uchumi haujengwi kwa hela, ingekuwa hivyo nchi zingeshindana kuchapisha noti kwa kila karatasi inayopatikana. Uchumi unajengwa kwa uzalishaji. Na ni kweli kuna faida kwa nchi kuwa na a weak currency, ndiyo maana China mpaka leo wana i weaken hela yao artificially na Tim Geithner analalamika mpaka kesho kwa sababu hili linaipa China unfair competitive advantage.

Hujaongelea uzalishaji. Una drop names za common charlatans kina Donald Trump.

wote wanakimbilia kuishambulia, kisa ni dola na dhana potofu iliy ojengeka miongoni mwa o kuhusu Direct Selling/NWM/MLM, ni ofu na woga tu.

Wengine hata hatujaingia kwenye direct selling kui murder machete, tunaangalia principles zako za kujenga maghorofa kwenye unsound financial principle ya ku assume kwamba exchange rate ya kushusha thamani ya shilingi vs dollar itaendelea kushusha thamani shilling bila ku affect inflation. Hivi unafahamu the most common of economic principles? There is no free lunch, what the exchange rate giveth, under ceteris paribus, inflation taketh.

Woga na ofu ya mfumo huu ndo ilinisukuma kuufanyia utafiti na kujifunza zaidi na kugundua mengi ambayo wengi hawajayajua, kwangu ilikuwa rahisi kwa sababu kusoma vitabu ni sehemu ya kautamaduni kangu tangu sekondari.

Utafiti wako haujakamilika, ungekamilika usingesifia uzuri wa kushuka thamani kwa shilingi na kutaka ishuke zaidi na zaidi bila kujua inflation itakushika wapi.
 
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