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Modeling Development using a Normal Distribution

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Companero, Sep 12, 2009.

  1. Companero

    Companero Platinum Member

    Sep 12, 2009
    Joined: Jul 12, 2008
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    If you have done statistics or its semblence then you should be aware of the most famous distribution known as a normal distribution. As a reminder, here is the picture of a bell-curve that describes it.


    Now we have been told by our liberal and neo-liberal friends that we need to create a large middle class in Tanzania if we really want to develop. This, I think, means that we need to have a society that is normally distributed, that is, one that has most of its population concentrated- in terms of affluence - at the center of the bell-curve shown above.

    My question is: What is the distribution of the Tanzanian society at the moment given that we are told that the gap between the rich and the poor has massively increased after abandonding the noble ideals of 'Ujamaa Mkongwe'?

    Is it skewed to the left or right as the graph below shows which either means we have a lot of poor people or a lot of rich people respectively.


    How, then, do we model our society so that it can be normally distributed with very very few rich and poor people? How do we cut the tail(s) of the distribution(s) so as to create the equity, nay, equality envisioned in 'Ujamaa Mamboleo'?

    I welcome Zakumi, Julius (not the other one) and many others who are serious about modeling development in a sustainable way to do so here.

    PS. Images courtesy of Wikipedia