Mzee Mwanakijiji
Platinum Member
- Mar 10, 2006
- 33,460
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The ruling part has been able to deflect with such military precision the political advances and gains made by CHADEMA during the General Elections on 31st October, 2010. Using well known military tactics CCM has been able to "return" fire and has put CHADEMA once again in total shock and in defensive positions. The ultimately goal of this strategy is not just to weaken CHADEMA right now but to absolutely annihilate it before 2015. CHADEMA stands as the greatest threat to CCM political dominance and clout in the nation. CHADEMA then must be destroyed at whatever cost.
We have to understand that one of the advantages of CCM is that it is run by a number of ex-military personel (especially at the Central Committee) such as Lt. Jakaya Kikwete, Lt. Yusuph Makamba, Col. Abdulrahman Kinana, Capt. George Mkuchika, and Capt. John Chiligati. You will see that the five ex-military offices hold positions of strategic significance a.k.a attack positions. Compared to this Chadema at its highest ranks no one has any formal military training beside the National Service experience. Not Mbowe, Zitto, Slaa, Mnyika, or Lissu etc who can see things from a military perspective like the other side does. This is one of the biggest disadvantage that Chadema has compared to CCM.
After a successful deflection of the "walk-out" which has left some people confused to what actually is the current position of CHADEMA on recognizing Kikwete's win the next step for CCM is to return CHADEMA to its proper political position – the disgruntled perpetual opposition. Although CHADEMA came out of the election a winner CHADEMA has miserably failed to articulate this victory to the mass. They have not even been able to organize a rally to give their supporters an opportunity to celebrate the gains they have made. It is as if CHADEMA itself believe that it failed or did not do well at all: Is that so?
Now, it is sad that CHADEMA believe that CCM "won" to the point they can not even celebrate their own victory. It is sad that going a month after the historic election CHADEMA have not organized a single pep rally for their supporters to appreciate how they voters came through for them. It is indeed disheartening to see that the people who campaigned so much to have people come and vote for them are now back to their individualistic and egoistical mentality and those parochial politics. They could not stand together for a month, shameful!
So from a military standpoint CCM can not and will not allow any further advances by CHADEMA towards or in 2015. The only mission for CCM's strategists right now is to push back CHADEMA with a vengeance. They can not allow any further advances. So far I can see a meticulous campaign to weaken CHADEMA.
But all this is good for CCM and its tacticians. We know CHADEMA can not and will never have a unified position on matters of principle; we know for a fact that they can not stand together and put a rational defense of their positions without finding themselves in such notable disagreement, and we know there are so much internal wrangling that it is almost impossible for the Chadema's top brass to function towards victory in 2015. Well, CCM must seize this moment and will in fact seize it. How will this happen?
I believe the best way to course more discontent and division within CHADEMA and weaken it from within is to offer them 2 ministerial positions. I don't see any rational possibility of giving them full cabinet positions because they ministers will have to participate in cabinet deliberations but I can see two Deputy Ministers. But, I will not be surprised if one of them is indeed a full cabinet position.
Once these offers are made CHADEMA must come out and say if they would take the positions or if they would reject them. What does a taking ministerial position mean for CHADEMA?
Two camps will emerge and I totally foresee that they two camps will be in the same line as those who opposed or supported the walk out.
Take Them Camp – This camp will argue for national healing, reconciliation and unity CHADEMA must take the ministerial positions. It will argue that the president has shown he is willing to work with all people and all parties and rejecting them it will be disrespectful of the president. So, this group will whole heartedly jump to take the offered positions.
Don't Take Them Camp – This camp will urge the appointed MPs to refuse the positions based on the argument that by taking the positions it will be legitimizing Kikwete's victory and will remove in perpetuity the argument that the election was not as free and fair. They will argue that by agreeing to take ministerial positions in CCM's administration will be like an endorsement of CCM's election platform. CHADEMA MPs must not work to implement CCMs manifesto.
The two positions will divide the supporters and CHADEMA members in the same line of reasoning and therefore weaken the party more. It will be more troubling if the appointed MPs from CHADEMA will go to be sworn in as ministers/deputies regardless of the party's directives or by saying "we put the nation's interests first".
CHADEMA will have to react swiftly and categorically to deflect that charm offensive when their MPs are named as potential ministers or deputies:
Once this is resolved we have to sit down and wait for another assault on CHADEMA, its MPs, Members and supporters for we know for a fact CCM will not give up power without a fight and believe me fighting they will. Chadema will have to learn to think from a military strategic, they will have to answer one of the oldest military war questions - how does a small army defeat a well equipped, trained and financed army? Unless Chadema find the answer to this question they will not be able to defeat their political adversary and will find itself more than once in defensive positions like it finds itself now.
So the only way to bring unity, reconciliation and harmony in CHADEMA (as if that would be CCM"s interest) is NOT to offer any ministerial position to CHADEMA or its MPs. Wouldn't you agree?
MMM
We have to understand that one of the advantages of CCM is that it is run by a number of ex-military personel (especially at the Central Committee) such as Lt. Jakaya Kikwete, Lt. Yusuph Makamba, Col. Abdulrahman Kinana, Capt. George Mkuchika, and Capt. John Chiligati. You will see that the five ex-military offices hold positions of strategic significance a.k.a attack positions. Compared to this Chadema at its highest ranks no one has any formal military training beside the National Service experience. Not Mbowe, Zitto, Slaa, Mnyika, or Lissu etc who can see things from a military perspective like the other side does. This is one of the biggest disadvantage that Chadema has compared to CCM.
After a successful deflection of the "walk-out" which has left some people confused to what actually is the current position of CHADEMA on recognizing Kikwete's win the next step for CCM is to return CHADEMA to its proper political position – the disgruntled perpetual opposition. Although CHADEMA came out of the election a winner CHADEMA has miserably failed to articulate this victory to the mass. They have not even been able to organize a rally to give their supporters an opportunity to celebrate the gains they have made. It is as if CHADEMA itself believe that it failed or did not do well at all: Is that so?
- CHADEMA Presidential candidate Dr. Slaa gained 2.2 million votes; no other opposition candidate before him ever reached the 2 million mark.
- CHADEMA gained more MPs than ever before. You have to remember that it only had 6 (if I'm correct) constituent MPs, right now it has over 24 and I'll argue if they challenge certain CCM's victories they might gain about 7 more seats.
- CHADEMA gained more Special Seats than ever before
- CHADEMA was able to retain all of the sits gained during 2005 expect one
- While in 2005 CHADEMA only had 3 councils to run this time it has 12 of them! Some of them being the most prominent such as Mbeya Urban, Mwanza, Musoma and Arusha urban!
- CHADEMA was finally able to penetrate Dar-es-Salaam one of the most difficult political regions in Tanzania. And I believe the Segerea seat will ultimately come back to CHADEMA.
Now, it is sad that CHADEMA believe that CCM "won" to the point they can not even celebrate their own victory. It is sad that going a month after the historic election CHADEMA have not organized a single pep rally for their supporters to appreciate how they voters came through for them. It is indeed disheartening to see that the people who campaigned so much to have people come and vote for them are now back to their individualistic and egoistical mentality and those parochial politics. They could not stand together for a month, shameful!
So from a military standpoint CCM can not and will not allow any further advances by CHADEMA towards or in 2015. The only mission for CCM's strategists right now is to push back CHADEMA with a vengeance. They can not allow any further advances. So far I can see a meticulous campaign to weaken CHADEMA.
But all this is good for CCM and its tacticians. We know CHADEMA can not and will never have a unified position on matters of principle; we know for a fact that they can not stand together and put a rational defense of their positions without finding themselves in such notable disagreement, and we know there are so much internal wrangling that it is almost impossible for the Chadema's top brass to function towards victory in 2015. Well, CCM must seize this moment and will in fact seize it. How will this happen?
I believe the best way to course more discontent and division within CHADEMA and weaken it from within is to offer them 2 ministerial positions. I don't see any rational possibility of giving them full cabinet positions because they ministers will have to participate in cabinet deliberations but I can see two Deputy Ministers. But, I will not be surprised if one of them is indeed a full cabinet position.
Once these offers are made CHADEMA must come out and say if they would take the positions or if they would reject them. What does a taking ministerial position mean for CHADEMA?
Two camps will emerge and I totally foresee that they two camps will be in the same line as those who opposed or supported the walk out.
Take Them Camp – This camp will argue for national healing, reconciliation and unity CHADEMA must take the ministerial positions. It will argue that the president has shown he is willing to work with all people and all parties and rejecting them it will be disrespectful of the president. So, this group will whole heartedly jump to take the offered positions.
Don't Take Them Camp – This camp will urge the appointed MPs to refuse the positions based on the argument that by taking the positions it will be legitimizing Kikwete's victory and will remove in perpetuity the argument that the election was not as free and fair. They will argue that by agreeing to take ministerial positions in CCM's administration will be like an endorsement of CCM's election platform. CHADEMA MPs must not work to implement CCMs manifesto.
The two positions will divide the supporters and CHADEMA members in the same line of reasoning and therefore weaken the party more. It will be more troubling if the appointed MPs from CHADEMA will go to be sworn in as ministers/deputies regardless of the party's directives or by saying "we put the nation's interests first".
CHADEMA will have to react swiftly and categorically to deflect that charm offensive when their MPs are named as potential ministers or deputies:
- First by answering this question was the party consulted in the naming of its MPs or they too found out as the names were read in public. If the answer is NO then CHADEMA must directs its MPs to refuse the posts for they were not done in good faith. If the answer is YES then the party must say if it endorsed the appointments.
- If the party had rejected the move by the President to name its MPs to ministerial positions then it should be categorical in pointing that out and direct its MPs to refuse the positions.
- If the MPs are adamant in joining the CCM's government then the Party in a compromise position must ask the president to allow the MPs to implement Chademas' manifesto in their respective ministries. This will be very unlikely to be agreed. If the president refuses then the party must direct its MPs not to TAKE those positions.
- If the MPs still want to take those positions then CHADEMA will have only one choice to make which will be to remove those MPs from party membership so that the president can nominate them MPs and give them the same positions and call for bi-elections in the respective constituencies to fill up the seats. In this last scenario which I believe might be the most likely to happen CHADEMA will win (by standing on principle), its appointed MPs will win (they will be named MPs and Ministers) and the President will win (by having the people from the opposition who he believes will help him implement his agenda only now they will be not from CHADEMA). But CCM will lose for no CHADEMA MP will take part in the cabinet.
Once this is resolved we have to sit down and wait for another assault on CHADEMA, its MPs, Members and supporters for we know for a fact CCM will not give up power without a fight and believe me fighting they will. Chadema will have to learn to think from a military strategic, they will have to answer one of the oldest military war questions - how does a small army defeat a well equipped, trained and financed army? Unless Chadema find the answer to this question they will not be able to defeat their political adversary and will find itself more than once in defensive positions like it finds itself now.
So the only way to bring unity, reconciliation and harmony in CHADEMA (as if that would be CCM"s interest) is NOT to offer any ministerial position to CHADEMA or its MPs. Wouldn't you agree?
MMM