MAISHA BORA: IMF sees slower growth, high inflation in Tanzania

[Kambarage]

Je, haya ndiyo maisha bora kwa kila Mtanzania ambayo Rais Jakaya Kikwete alituahidi? IMF na wataalamu wengine wamesema kuwa tatizo kubwa la kuporomoka uchumi ni kutokana na ukame unaosababisha mgao wa umeme na upungufu wa chakula.

Tangu ukame wa 2006 na mgao wa umeme, leo hii imepita miaka 5 bado serikali ya JK imeshindwa kuchukua hatua kukabiliana na tatizo hili?

Watabiri wa hali ya hewa wa kimataifa, World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) na hata wa Tanzania, TMA, walishasema miaka ya nyuma kuwa kutatokea ukame 2010/11, serikali kwa nini haikujiandaa na kuchukua hatua kuhakikisha umeme wa kudumu na chakula kinapatikana?

Je, JK na serikali yake wanastahili kuendelea kutawala? Najiuliza nakosa majibu.

IMF sees slower growth, high inflation in Tanzania

Fri Mar 11, 2011

By Fumbuka Ng'wanakilala

DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) - Tanzania's economy will grow at a slower rate than previously expected this year, weighed down by a power crisis and rising prices, and accelerating inflation is a concern, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday.

The IMF's resident representative also said the fund backs Tanzania's plans to issue a debut Eurobond this fiscal year and had agreed to an external non-concessional borrowing ceiling of $1.5 billion over three years.

The IMF initially expected Tanzania's economy to grow 7.2 percent this year from 7 percent in 2010 before accelerating to 7.5 percent in 2012, while inflation would be 5.5 percent by June 2011, and decline to 5 percent thereafter.

But sections of Tanzania, like its northern neighbour Kenya, are suffering from drought, which has hurt food production and cut water levels at the country's main hydropower dams.

"The ongoing drought, the related power shortages, and the global rise in food and fuel prices all mean these forecasts must be reconsidered," resident representative John Wakeman-Linn told Reuters.

"Clearly these factors will increase Tanzania's inflation in 2011, while reducing its growth somewhat."

Inflation rose for the third successive month in January to 6.4 percent from 5.6 percent in December.

The IMF said it was working with Tanzania's central bank and finance ministry to revise the 2011 GDP and inflation projections.

Wakeman-Linn said Tanzania's economy could rebound next year if the country addressed chronic energy shortages that have forced the state-run Tanzania Electric Supply Company to introduce nationwide rolling blackouts since December.

Tanzania, Africa's fourth-biggest gold producer, mainly depends on tourism, mining and agriculture and is increasingly attracting more investor interest in telecommunications, energy, manufacturing, financial services and transport.

POWER WOES

"Beyond 2011, assuming the power problem is resolved satisfactorily, there is no reason Tanzania should not return to its previous growth path of 7 percent or more," he said.

"Communications, financial services, mining and tourism should continue to do well. Manufacturing was doing very well prior to the power problems, and can be expected to continue to do well once the problems are resolved. The prospects for agriculture depend on the weather."

The IMF said it approved of plans by Tanzania to issue a Eurobond in the fiscal year starting in July, after the country gets a sovereign rating in the next seven to eight months.

"It makes perfect sense for Tanzania to borrow on international capital markets, provided they borrow on reasonable terms and spend the money wisely on well-designed, critical infrastructure projects," Wakeman-Linn said.

The country hopes to get a credit rating of B+, similar to other African nations such as Kenya, Angola and Nigeria.

Investment Climate Facility for Africa -- a private body working to improve the business climate in the continent -- estimates Tanzania needs to invest $10 billion a year to improve its infrastructure network.

"Over time, Tanzania needs to find sustainable ways to finance and address its huge infrastructure needs," Wakeman-Linn said.

(Source: IMF sees slower growth, high inflation in Tanzania | Reuters)

 

[Kambarage]

Nyingine hiyo.....



MGAO WA UMEME

Uchumi wayumba

* Taifa lapoteza sh. trilioni 1 kwa mwezi
* Hofu yatanda maelfu ya vijana kukosa ajira
* Ukali wa maisha wawaacha Watanzania hoi
* Serikali yang'ang'ania mchezo wa Dowans


MWANDISHI WETU
Dar es Salaam

MGAO wa umeme unaoendelea umesababisha madhara makubwa kwa uchumi wa nchi, huku Gavana wa Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Prof. Benno Ndulu, akiweka bayana kuwa maelfu ya vijana wasio na ajira kwenye miji mikubwa kama Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Mbeya na Arusha, wanaweza kuiyumbisha taifa.

Wakati makali ya mgao wa umeme yakiendelea, viongozi serikalini wanaonekana kuendelea kucheza 'mchezo mchafu' wa Dowans na kuiona mitambo ya kampuni hiyo tata kuwa suluhisho pekee la tatizo la nishati hapa nchini badala ya kufanya maamuzi mengine ya haraka.

Macho yote ya serikali sasa hivi yako kwenye mitambo ya Dowans ambayo inauwezo wa kuzalisha megawati 100 tu wakati uhaba wa umeme ulipo ni megawati 260.

"Tatizo tulionalo ni kuwa baadhi ya vigogo wa serikali na Bungeni wanatoa msukumo kwa mradi wa Dowans ili kufanikisha uporaji wa pesa za umma," mwanasheria mmoja aliye karibu na serikali ameiambia KuliKoni.

"Eti wanataka taifa liione mitambo ya Dowans kuwa ndiyo mkombozi pekee wa uhaba mkubwa wa nishati nchini. Ukweli ni kuwa hata mitambo ya Dowans ikiwashwa leo, mgao wa umeme bado utaendelea."

Akizungumza kwenye mkutano wa kimataifa wa uwekezaji uliofanyika Dar es Salaam mapema wiki hii, Gavana Ndulu amesema kuwa idadi kubwa ya vijana wasio na ajira kwenye miji mikubwa ya nchi ni tatizo linalo mkosesha usingizi.

"Nina hofu na tabaka linalokuwa kwa kasi kubwa kuliko yote la masikini waliopo kwenye maeneo ya mijini, ambao ni vijana waliokuja kutafuta ajira lakini hawapati hizo ajira," alisema Ndulu.

Katika ripoti yake mpya ya mwelekeo wa uchumi iliyotoka wiki hii (Monetary Policy Statement) Benki Kuu imeonya kuwa tatizo la umeme hapa nchini huenda likaleta madhara makubwa kwa uchumi.

Benki Kuu imesema kuwa italazimika kuchukua hatua kadhaa kuhakikisha kuwa mgao wa umeme na ongezeko la bei ya umeme lilioanza Januari 1 mwaka huu hayaendelei kuleta madhara makubwa kwa uchumi.

Gavana alisema kuwa ingawa lengo la serikali ni kwa uchumi kukua kwa asilimia 7.1 mwaka huu, kuna uwezekano kuwa lengo hilo lisifikiwe kutokana na hofu ya ukame na kupanda kwa bei ya mafuta kwenye soko la dunia.

Kwa mujibu wa Prof. Ndulu, kuna uwezekano ukuaji wa uchumi ukashuka mpaka kufikia asilimia 6.5 mwaka huu kutoka wastani wa ukuaji uchumi wa wasilimia 7.0 mwaka jana.

Baadhi ya viongozi wa Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) wanakiri kuwa kundi kubwa la vijana wasio na ajira wanatishia utawala wa serikali.

"Vijana wengi maeneo ya mijini na kwenye vyuo vikuu wanaichukia sana CCM na serikali kutokana na hali ngumu ya uchumi na ukosefu wa ajira. Ndiyo maana wapinzani wameonekana kuwa na nguvu kwenye miji mikubwa hapa nchini," alisema kada mmoja wa CCM.

Hivi karibuni, imetangazwa kuwa zaidi ya viwanda 50 vikubwa nchini vimefungwa huku vingine vingi vikilazimika kupunguza uzalishaji kutokana na makali ya mgao wa umeme unaoendelea.

Hii ina maana kuwa maelfu ya vijana ambao walikuwa wanajipatia ajira kama vibarua kwenye viwanda hivi wameachwa solemba.

Mfanya biashara na mchumi aliyebobea, Ali Mufuruki, ameonya wiki hii kuwa uchumi wa taifa unapoteza shilingi trilioni 1 kwa mwezi tangu mgao wa umeme uanze.

Mufuruki ambaye ni mtendaji mkuu (chairman & CEO) wa kampuni ya uwekezaji ya Infotech Investment Group yenye makao yake makuu jijini Dar es Salaam,

Makali ya maisha yanazidi kuwakamata Watanzania, huku mfumuko wa bei ukiendelea kupaa.

Tayari bei za sukari, mafuta ya taa, mchele, sembe, maharage, mkate, nyama na mahitaji mengine muhimu zimekuwa zikiendelea kuongezeka kwa kasi siku hadi siku.

Wadadisi wa masuala ya kisiasa wamesema kuwa ufisadi serikalini, ukosefu wa ajira na ukali wa maisha vimechangia kwa kiasi kikubwa kukisaidia Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA) kujizolea umaarufu miongoni mwa Watanzania, wengi wao wakiwa ni vijana.

Kutokana na hofu iliyopo serikalini kuwa vijana waliokata tamaa ya maisha wanaweza kuingia mitaani na kutaka kuleta mapinduzi ya wananchi kama yaliyofanyika Misri na kwingineko, Rais Kikwete ameonya kuwa amani ya nchi sasa iko hatarani.

Katika hotuba yake kwa taifa hivi karibuni, Kikwete aliwashutumu viongozi wa CHADEMA kwa kupanga kuindoa serikali yake madarakani kwa kutumia mabavu.

(KULIKONI)

 

[Ole]

Je, haya ndiyo maisha bora kwa kila Mtanzania ambayo Rais Jakaya Kikwete alituahidi?

Je, JK na serikali yake wanastahili kuendelea kutawala? Najiuliza nakosa majibu.

JK hakustahili hata kuwa mkuu wa wilaya let alone mkoa.

 

[Mutakyamirwa]

Colleagues,

Kinachonisumbua kwa sasa ni utambuzi mdogo wa viongozi wa CCM. They do not acknowledge this kind of inflation at all. Ebu uliza kada au Diwani/Mbunge yeyote wa chama tawala uone atakavyo jibu! Hali hii haingii akirini hata kidogo! If these leaders can not acknowledge, think and dicide what to do, Some one must do on their behalf. They must be forced to see and decide for the betterment of majority Tanzanians. We can not continue with blinded leaders. I do not agree and will not forever!