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Magufuli 2015-2020: Matarajio ya uchumi na changamoto zake

Discussion in 'Great Thinkers' started by Mchambuzi, May 12, 2016.

  1. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #1
    May 12, 2016
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    Utangulizi

    Serikali ya awamu ya Tano chini ya Rais J.P.Magufuli (CCM) imeanza kuwatumikia wananchi kwa kipindi cha (2015-2020) kwa mujibu wa katiba ya JMT(1977).

    Vipaumbele vikuu vya serikali ya awamu ya tano ni pamoja na:

    ·Kurudisha nidhamu katika mfumo wa fedha za umma
    ·Kuziba mianya ya ukwepaji kodi na
    .Kubana matumizi ya fedha za umma.

    Sambamba na haya, serikali pia (kupitia waziri wa Fedha, Uchumi na Mipango, Dr. Mpango), imewasilisha sura ya bajeti ya mwaka 2016-17 pamoja na mapendekezo ya Mpango wa pili wa Maendeleo ya Taifa wa miaka mitano (2016/2017 – 2020/2021).

    Tutajadili matarajio ya kiuchumi chini ya Rais Magufuli na Changamoto zake kwa kipindi cha 2015-2020. Tutafanya hivyo kwa muktadha wa dhana ya “Mabadiliko” tarajiwa ya Wananchi wengi, hasa maisha yao KIUCHUMI.

    Wananchi wengi (hasa maskini) wanatumaini Uchaguzi wa TANO wa Vyama Vingi (2015) katika dhana ya ''mabadiliko'' utaondoa mfumo unaoshadidia mambo YALE YALE kufanywa kwa namna ILE ILE na yenye matokeo YALE YALE kwa maisha yao kwa miaka zaidi ya Hamsini ya uhuru.

    Mjadala wetu umegawanyika katika sehemu kuu SITA:

    Sehemu ya Kwanza

    Tutajadili Matarajio ya wananchi Kiuchumi tukiyangalia katika maeneo makuu mawili:

    (1) Sura ya Bajeti ya Kwanza ya Serikali ya Awamu ya Tano (2016-17) na Mapendekezo ya Mpango wa Pili wa Maendeleo ya Taifa wa miaka mitano (2016/17-2020-2021).

    (2) Tutajadili matarajio ya wananchi kwa undani juu ya yanayopaswa kuwa ‘Majukumu ya Serikali” katika Uchumi wa Taifa.

    Sehemu ya Pili
    Tutajadili ngazi kuu za Serikali – (i) Serikali Kuu” na (ii)Serikali za Halmahauri.

    Hapa tutaangalia kwa undani mgawanyo wa majukumu wa ngazi hizi mbili za Serikali katika kuleta ufanisi na matokea chanya kisiasa (demokrasia), kiuchumi na kijamii, kwa faida ya wananchi walio wengi.

    Sehemu ya Tatu
    Tutajadili Mamlaka ya Kodi na Mapato [“Taxation and Revenue powers”] katika ngazi mbili kuu za serikali – Serikali Kuu na Serikali Za Halmashauri.

    Tutatazama urali “Fiscal Imbalances” katika ngazi za Halmashauri na jinsi gani changamoto zake zinapaswa kutatuliwa kwa ushirikiano baina ya ngazi mbili kuu hizi za Serikali.

    Pia tutaangalia aina mbalimbali za Kodi:

    – Kodi zipi zinapaswa kusimamiwa na serikali kuu;

    - Kodi zipi zinapaswa kusimamiwa na Serikali ngazi za halmashauri; na

    - Kodi zipi zinaweza kusimamiwa kwa kushirikisha ngazi kuu mbili.

    Lengo kuu hapa ni kuleta ufanisi wenye matokeo chanya kwa maisha ya wananchi walio wengi - Kijamii, Kiuchumi na Kisiasa(demokrasia)

    Sehemu ya Nne
    Tutajadili hali ya “Deni la Taifa” na changamoto (zitokanazo) kwa Serikali ya awamu ya Tano katika utekelezaji wa mipango yake mbalimbali ya kibajeti na kimaendeleo.

    Sehemu ya Tano

    Tutajadili hali ya baadae ya uchumi katika muktadha wa deni la NJE, kwa kufanya tathmini ya mwenendo wa deni la nje.

    Pamoja na mengineyo, tutajadili:


    · Historia fupi ya deni la nje.

    · Matumizi (kisekta) ya deni la nje.

    · Athari (impact) ya mikopo ya nje katika maendeleo ya uchumi na jamii.

    · Hatari (risk) iliyopo mbeleni ya nchi kuingia katika mgogoro mkubwa kiuchumi na hivyo kutoweza kukopesheka. Katika hili, tutafanya tathmini ya masuala makuu mawili:


    - Kwanza ni tathimini ya Mapato ya kodi kwa kuangalia iwapo katika kipindi cha 2016-2021, mapato haya yatatosha kuiwezesha serikali kulipa madeni ya nje bila ya kuathiri majukumu ya serikali ya kutoa huduma mbalimbali kwa wananchi.

    - Pili, ni tathmini ya Mapato ya Fedha za Kigeni kupitia mazao ya kibiashara nje ya nchi kwa kipindi cha 2016-2021, na kuangalia iwapo mapato haya yatatosha kuiwezesha serikali kulipa madeni ya nje bila ya kuathiri uwezo wake wa kuwajibika kwa wananchi.


    Sehemu ya Sita

    Sehemu ya Siita itakuwa ni hitimisho la mjadala.


    Bandiko linalofuata litaanza na sehemu ya kwanza:

    (1) Sura ya Bajeti ya Kwanza ya Serikali ya Awamu ya Tano (2016-17) na Mapendekezo ya Mpango wa Pili wa Maendeleo ya Taifa wa miaka mitano (2016/17-2020-2021).

    (2) Tutajadili matarajio ya wananchi kwa undani juu ya yanayopaswa kuwa ‘Majukumu ya Serikali” katika Uchumi wa Taifa.
     
  2. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #141
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    Ronal Reagan,

    Asante kwa mchango wako unaofikirisha. Inawezekana kabisa kwamba wenzetu wengine hawana ufahamu kwamba lengo kuu la kuja na local government reforms ilikuwa ni kuleta mabadiliko na maboresho katika mamlaka hizi ili wananchi waweze kuona faida ya kodi zao kwa haraka, ufanisi na uwazi zaidi. Studies mbalimbali zimeelezea umuhimu wa reforms hizi. Sambamba na suala hili ni kuhakikisha kwamba LGAs zinapewa mamlaka kukusanya mapato kutoka vyanzo mbalimbali.

    Hata katiba ya sasa ya JMT, hii mbovu mbovu (1977) inazipa kila local government authority (LGA) status ya "Serikali". Kwa maana hii, kila LGA inaweza raise funds to meets its costs of delivering public goods and services ikiwa ni pamoja na miradi ya Maendelo.

    The Local Government Finance Act namba '9' ya mwaka 1982 inaeleza vyanzo vikuu vitatu vya mamlaka za serikali za mitaa kuwa ni:

    1. Uhamisho wa fedha kutoka serikali kuu kwenda mamlaka za serikali za mitaa (intergovernmental transfers).

    2. Vyanzo vyao wenyewe (own-source local revenues)

    3. Mikopo (borrowing).

    *Transfers kutoka central government account for almost 90% ya jumla ya mapato yote ya serikali za mitaa. This is contradictory to dhumuni la msingi la local government reforms husika.

    *Own sources account for about 7% of total revenues. Hapa ilikuwa ni kabla property taxes hazijarudishwa serikali kuu na awamu hii ya TANO ya uongozi unaojali 'wananchi'.

    *Mikopo - kwa taarifa nilizonazo ni kwamba serikali kuu imekuwa inazikatalia LGAs kutumia uhuru huu. Manispaa ya Temeke ilipewa ruksa hiyo mapema mwaka huu kufuatia kuchanganyikiwa kwa CCM pale ukawa walipochukua manispaa mbili kati ya tatu DSM (Kinondoni & Ilala) pamoja na jiji.

    Kulazimisha LGAs kutegemea serikali kuu inaua kabisa dhana nzima ya decentralization Kwani local self government inashindikana kutekelezwa kwa vitendo. Kwanini nasema hivyo?

    Reforms za local government mwaka 2003 zililenga kufanikisha decentralization katika maeneo makuu matano:

    1. Afya
    2. Elimu
    3. Maji
    4. Kilimo
    5. Miundombinu

    Uhalisia katika maeneo haya unakatisha sana tamaa. Hata ukisoma Local Government Fiscal Review (2007), matokeo ya low degree of local revenue autonomy ni a weak link baina ya faida from local expenditures na gharama zake kwa local residents.

    Mtu kutoona haya ni aidha kwa makusudi au kukosa umakini katika kuchanganua mambo.
     
  3. Nguruvi3

    Nguruvi3 Platinum Member

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  4. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #143
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    Well .....
     
  5. Ronal Reagan

    Ronal Reagan JF-Expert Member

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    Kweli kabisa Nguruvi3. Sijui ni kwa nini CCM na Serikali zake wamekuwa na woga wa kufanya devolution and decentralization ki-ukweli. Ni kama wanafanya maigizo tu, kujifanya wametoa kwa mkono wa kulia lakini hapo hapo kwa kutumia mkono wa kushoto na viungo vilivyobaki wanarudisha/wanazuia.

    Yaani ukiangalia their whole set-up it's too confusing and inept, lakini kwa vile hawana soni na kwa vile hawajali wao ni mbele kwa mbele na kukokota wananchi kuelekea kusikojulikana na/au shimoni.
     
  6. Ronal Reagan

    Ronal Reagan JF-Expert Member

    #145
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    Mkuu Mchambuzi,

    Hata mimi sasa nashindwa kuelewa huyu ndugu yetu anakwama wapi hasa! Vitu vingi viko wazi tu. Anajikita zaidi kwenye demagogue, vague scripts while he deliberately refuse to integrate the relationship between the abstract theories/ideologies na uhalisia (that is some skill I guess). Assuming akipewa kazi ya kufanya appraisal au diagnosis kwenye haya mambo then majibu yangeelekezwa yaendane na ideology fulani fulani tu. Pengine hana kifua cha kupokea facts & realities zisizoendana na prejudices.

    Nakumbuka kama miaka 26 hivi iliyopita tuliwahi kuwa na changamoto ofisini kwetu (a consultancy firm) ya je namna gani au kiwango gani tutumie takwimu fulani zilizokuwa kwenye public domain, so tukaondoka kwenda kufanya spot verification kwenye 2 of 5 districts (Handeni na Babati), what we found there was massively disappointing. Ilitufunza sana umuhimu wa kuwa na several sources linapokuja suala la twakimu na ripoti. Ni lazima kutafuta na kuchunguza habari (facts, info etc) sio kumeza tu eti kwa vile zimetoka Serikalini.

    Hon. Kobelo I remain optimistic that you can positively contribute to our nation, but please try to adapt and be flexible just 0.5mm to the right.:D
     
  7. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #146
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    Nguruvi3,

    Katika hoja ya msingi huko juu, nilijadili majukumu ya serikali katika uchumi wa nchi ambayo ni:

    1. Macroeconomic stability.

    2. Income redistribution.

    3. Resource allocation.

    Mjadala huu unapatikana kuanzia bandiko #9 hadi #14,

    Tuliona kwamba majukumu juu ya Macroeconomic stability & Income Redistribution kwa kawaida yanatakiwa kubakia chini ya serikali kuu (central government) na tulijadili kwanini inatakiwa iwe hivyo. Tukasema kwamba jukumu pekee la serikali katika uchumi wa nchi ambalo linatakiwa kuwa chini ya mamlaka za serikali za mitaa ni jukumu la ‘resource allocation’. Jukumu hili halipaswi kuwa mikononi mwa serikali kuu. Serikali ya Magufuli inafanya kosa kubwa katika suala hili kwa kuhodhi majukumu yote ya serikali katika uchumi.

    Kama ulivyogusia, mipango shirikishi ya maendeleo (participatory development projects) inawezekana pale tu michakato inapohusisha wadau mbalimbali kuja na ‘collective vision’ kwa ajili ya ‘local development’, ambapo pia wadau husika (stakeholders) wanaweza kuja na makubaliano juu ya ‘common goals’ pamoja na mikakati ya kufanikisha malengo husika. Kuna tafiti nyingi zinazoendelea kuweka wazi kwamba ‘participation of local communities’ katika mikakati ya maendeleo husaidia sana kupunguza kasi ya umaskini.

    Kuhusu suala la wananchi kuwa na nafasi ya kufanya maamuzi yao kuendana na vipaumbele vyao, hili pia nakubaliana nawe na ni sababu kuu nyingine ambayo inapelekea experts karibia wote in public finance kuwa na msimamo kwamba jukumu la resource allocation linatakiwa kubakia mikononi mwa serikali ngazi za halmashauri.

    Tukumbuke kwamba local government reforms zilipeleka masuala makuu matano mikononi mwa serikali ngazi za halmashauri:

    -Afya

    -Kilimo

    -Elimu

    -Maji

    -Miundombinu (barabara nje ya zile za Tanroads).

    Na hapa mifano yako Nanyumbu, Machame na Isevya comes handly kwa maana moja tu nayo ni kwamba - mahitaji ndani ya taifa hayalingani. Kwa mfano, kutokana na sababu mbalimbali za kijiografia, kiuchumi, kiutamaduni nk, zipo sehemu (halmashauri) ambazo kipaumbele kinaweza kwa mfano kuwa ni Elimu, na kwingine kikawa ni afya au Maji nk. Kila halmashauri ina ‘tastes, preferences, priorities, and needs’ ambazo sio lazima zifanane na maeneo mengine.

    Kinachotokea chini ya Serikali ya Rais Magufuli ni centralization of - tastes, preferences, priorities, needs as if the Tanzanian population is homogeneous. Hatuwezi kusonga mbele kwa mtazamo huu.
     
  8. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #147
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    Kwa mtazamo wangu pengine finyu:

    Anajaribu kukirudisha chama chake cha CCM katika misingi yake kabla ya Mwalimu nyerere kung'atuka bila ya kufahamu kwamba muktadha wa sasa sio ule tena. Kwa mfano, Mwalimu survived kutokana na mambo makuu matatu:

    -Chama cha Mapinduzi kilishika hatamu. Hii ilikuwa ni njia muhimu sana ya serikali kutawala bila kukosolewa.
    -Azimio la Arusha. Azimio hili lilipelekea kuzaliwa kwa itikadi ya ujamaa ambayo pamoja na mengineyo ilisheheni mambo mengi yaliyowapa wananchi matumaini lakini pia yaliyojenga mshikamano na umoja kitaifa.
    -Muungano wa serikali mbili. Mfumo huu ulikisaidia chama cha mapinduzi kudhibiti siasa za nchi.

    Kiuchumi zilipatikana faida na hasara nyingi katika kipindi hiki (i.e 1967-1985). Na mwalimu aliwahi kutamka kwamba yapo mengi ya maana lakini pia ya ovyo ambayo aliyafanya na akaenda mbali na kushangaa jinsi gani walionfuata walikuwa wanaacha ya maana na kufanya ya ovyo.

    Magufuli ameanza kuacha ya maana na kurukia ya ovyo. Anajaribu kurudisha imani na uhalali wa CCM mbele ya wananchi kwa nguvu kubwa bila ya kufahamu kwamba zilikuwepo sababu za msingi kwanini chini ya Mwalimu, TANU/CCM iliendelea kupata uhalali wa kutawala licha ya mapungufu mengi ya serikali kisera na utekelezaji wa mipango ya maendeleo. Sababu hizo hazipo tena.

    Uzi huu ni wa kiuchumi zaidi kuliko kisiasa, hivyo nitajaribu kukaa mbali kidogo na hoja za kisiasa lakini naomba niseme tu kwamba Pengine 'sifa' pekee ambayo Mwalimu anaweza kupewa katika utawala wake wa miaka 24 ni moja tu, nayo ni kwamba he had 'sincere objectives'. Basi. Rais Magufuli so far anaendelea kuungwa mkono hapa na pale kwa sababu hiyo hiyo, 'sincere objectives', sio kitu kingine. Lakini katika hili wananchi wameanza kuhoji.
     
  9. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #148
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    You can not convince me at all.
    I want to hear that "reality", I really do! But you don't even bring that reality to the Table. Tell us, what do you mean by robo (quarter) ya mafanikio? Because there is at least one eighth or one sixteenth or whatever that you think we have achieved.I want to know how is that measured.

    Usipende kutumia maneno ambayo hayana maana kwenye mijadala kwa sababu hutaeleweka. First of all, you've just jumped into this na sasa unataka kuleta porojo zilezile za kila siku.Wewe sasa ndiye unayeleta siasa za blah blah and you expect me to adapt.

    No!
     
  10. Ronal Reagan

    Ronal Reagan JF-Expert Member

    #149
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    Mkuu Kobello,

    If all the info & facts presented in this entire thread failed to convince you, then honestly I, too, cannot convince you.

    Let's move on with other matters bro.
     
  11. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #150
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    It's all about half full/half empty. The only problem is, you've jumped into this faster than may be you should have.
     
  12. Ronal Reagan

    Ronal Reagan JF-Expert Member

    #151
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    Ok ok ok, now can we move on from personal to things which really matters?
     
  13. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #152
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    You can bet on my immediate response if you mention or quote me. Other than that, I will leave you alone, unless you post a distorted and misleading information that - in my view - can turn out to be "the truth"

    Upon doing that, I will call you out humbly and depending on your reaction, we can have a decent, educated conversation where you can explain and solidify your point of view or you can choose to act like a scumbag and throw a childish tantrum like most of delusional characters found here.

    When you do that, you can bet on me reciprocating the same upon you. But all in all, the evidence based upon an eye-witness account, is 100% accepted in the court of law but has no value in the court of science, no value at all. It's vague!
     
  14. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Ronal Reagan, please try to get used to Kobello, and if possible get used to ignore him. He's here on a pay roll to destruct, not to construct. Whenever he succeeds to derail focused individuals like you from issues that matter the most, his wallet swells.

    Kobello is an "intellectual worker" for CCM, as you can tell already, it's intelligence that have gone to waste.He's sometimes a jester playing his role to amuse and cheer up or charm his masters. Whenever he plays that role, he doesn't only come in JF to amuse and cheer up the rulers, he also helps his masters at Lumumba to trivialize and divert attention from major issues of the day.

    Sometimes he switches to the role of a demagogue and uses all his mental capacity to cajole and bamboozle, at times working on the stereotypes and prejudices that exists in our society. Demagogues are never interested in arguing and have no respect for logic or consistency, history or human decency. I am sure You have already seen that. CCM is full of demagogues who thrive on producing slogans which are then propagated as absolute truths which should be worshipped and shouldn't be challenged. Individuals like Kobello would brand any critic as an enemy. They don't see any independent merit in a political opponent and instead try to disparage /denigrate a political opponent by harping on irrelevant attributes.

    Lastly he sometimes play a role of an ideologue whereby he attempts to persuade contributors and readers by force of argument about their world view. Under this role, he would rationalise the changing policies, strategies at at times gimmicks of CCM rulers who we all know that they change like chamelions just to 'stay in power'. As an ideologue he has often tried to convince us that CCM (or rulers) have a consistent direction for our country. And when CCM leaders change the direction 360 degrees, he would come at JF to try assure us that it was only change and adjustments of tactics needed to keep up changing times, but the goals remain the same.

    Don't understimate the ability of an intellectual worker. Watch him coming to portray all the categories inherent to him per above.

    In the meantime pls let's carry on discussing issues that matter the most - our "economic fate" as a nation, 56 years after "political independence."
     
  15. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #154
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    There you go!
     
  16. Nguruvi3

    Nguruvi3 Platinum Member

    #155
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    Ronal Reagan yupo sahihi kwamba kutumia hoja alizosema 'academic' kunapaswa kuambatana na matumizi ya akili zetu.

    Umemkomalia aeleze robo ni kitu gani, sina uhakika unatafuta nini hapo ikiwa tunakubali zaidi ya 'nusu ya watanzania' wanaishi below poverty line.

    Iwe 67% au 68% wapo below poverty line.Tofauti ipo wapi katika kuelewa?

    Unachotaka ni majedwali. Nikuhakikishie mengine hayaeleweki bila kutumia akili

    Nimesoma mpango wa maendeleo uliowasilishwa bungeni.

    Ni ngumu kuelewa mpango ulitengenezwa kwa ajili ya kusomwa au ni kwa uhalisia wa maisha ya watu na nchi kwa ujumla

    Kipo kifungu kinasema, mpango uliotangulia haukuweza kufikia lengo la kutoa megawati za umeme zilizotarajiwa.

    Halafu kipo kifungu kinasema majiji ya Mbeya na Tanga yaongezewe umeme

    Kabla ya kufikia lengo la megawati zinazotarajiwa, kuna maeneo yanatakiwa kuongezewa.

    Katika mpango huo kuna kifungu kinasema serikali iwaaenda wananchi kwa ajili ya viwanda. Kama unahoji robo kwa Renal Reagan, ungeweza kuona maana ya viwanda

    Kifungu kinasema viwanda hivyo si vikubwa bali vidogo.

    Unapoongelewa Industry kuna tofauti na factory au karakana.

    Mpango uliowasilishwa bungeni haujaeleza viwanda vikubwa ni vipi, vidogo ni vipi na sisi tunataka nini. Iweje uone robo ya Reagan kama mapungufu makubwa ikiwa mpango wa serikali hauwezi kuanisha aina ya viwanda?

    Nimekupa mfano huo (nenda kasome) uone tofauti ya uhalisia na 'nyaraka za kitaaluma'

    Mpango umeandaliwa kitaaluma, kwa mwenye kufikiria kidogo hatabeba kila kitu na kukiweka 'on the table' bila ku digest

    Equally umeelezwa madhumuni ya serikali za mitaa, majukumu , vyanzo vyake vya mapato, na jinsi central gov inavyochangia kuziua na hivyo kufeli

    Unataka takwimu wakati madawati ni jukumu ya LG lakini Rais ndiye amebeba jukumu

    Usiseme wizara ipo chini yake, hilo tu ni kosa hasa kiuchumi kwa mujibu wa mada.

    Unataka takwimu bila kuona uhalisia wa mambo mbele ya uso wako. Please
     
  17. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #156
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    Ni yaleyale ya kila siku, huo mpango wa maendeleo mbona nimeusoma na sera ya viwanda nimeisoma na sijaona chochote ambacho hakiwezi kutekelezeka.

    Labda ungeeleza hiyo tofauti kati ya Industry, factory na karakana (May be you think it's the size? WRONG!!).

    Hakuna sehemu ambayo LGA imekatazwa kutengeneza au kununua madawati. They have that discretion, so rais au padre akiamua kutoa madawati haimaanishi hilo ni jukumu lake.

    Acheni longolongo kama huelewi kitu si uulize? Instead ya kujiaminisha kimekosewa.
     
  18. Ronal Reagan

    Ronal Reagan JF-Expert Member

    #157
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    Asante sana Nguruvi3, very well said. Tena wewe umempa na mifano mingi zaidi.
    Ndio maana nakubaliana pia na Bw. Mchambuzi ambaye alinipa angalizo hapo juu. We cannot do much but move on without some people.
     
  19. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #158
    Dec 29, 2016
    Joined: Aug 24, 2007
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    Zipo namna nyingi kujadili swali lako hili muhimu. Ningependa kuchokoza zaidi mada kuliko kuja na majibu ya moja kwa moja ili kwa pamoja tuweze kusaidiana kupata majibu husika. Naomba nilitazame suala hili kwa jicho la kisekta ingawa kama tutakavyoona, many issues are “cross cutting”, hayasimami peke yake. Na suala hili la serikali kutozingatia cross cutting issues and provide funds accordingly ni moja ya sababu kubwa kwanini kama taifa tumekwama kimaendeleo. Kwa kipindi kirefu sana, approach to economic development by the government has been more ‘atomistic’ than ‘holistic’. Kwa mfano unakuta mwaka mmoja wa fedha kipaumbele cha serikali kinakuwa ni Elimu, mwaka unaofuatia, Elimu inaachwa njiani huku ikiwa haijapata karibia nusu ya fedha zilizotengwa kwa ajili yake, na serikali kuhamia sekta nyingine kwa mfano Miundombinu nk. Nothing holistic.

    Kama njia moja wapo ya kujadili swali lako, ningependa kulijadili katika muktadha wa Mtaji Watu (Human Capital). Katika hoja yangu ya msingi nilijadili kwamba Mtaji Watu (Human Capital) inajengwa na nguzo kuu mbili, zikisaidiwa na nyingine moja. Nguzo kuu hizo ni Kiwango cha AFYA za wananchi na Kiwango cha Elimu miongoni mwa wananchi, huku suala la LISHE (nutrition) nalo likiwa na mchango muhimu towards that end. Kwa maana hii, katika hali ya kawaida, serikali ilitakiwa kuweka vipaumbele vya muda mrefu sana katika sekta kuu tatu kama njia ya kumtafutia mtanzania maendeleo ya kweli. Sekta hizo ni:

    1. Elimu

    2. Afya

    3. Lishe (kilimo)

    Katika hoja yangu ya msingi nilijadili jinsi gani katika nyakati mbalimbali Umoja wa Africa (AU) ulikuja na maazimio ambayo yalizitaka nchi wanachama kuwekeza ipasavyo katika maeneo haya matatu. Maazimio hayo ni kama ifuatavyo:

    1. Azimio la Dakar (Senegal), mwaka 2000 lililohusu ELIMU/Mtaji Watu/Human Capital. Kupitia azimio hili, viongozi wa AU walikubaliana kwamba ili kuboresha the aforementioned kwa uchumi na hali za maisha ya wananchi wao, kila serikali ilipaswa kuanza kutenga sio chini ya 20% ya jumla ya bajeti nzima kila mwaka kwa ajili ya sekta ya Elimu pekee.

    2. Azimio la Abuja (Nigeria), mwaka 2001 lililohusu AFYA. Chini ya azimio hili, viongozi wa AU walikubaliana kwamba kila nchi ianze kutenga sio chini ya 15% ya jumla ya bajeti nzima kila mwana kwa ajili ya sekta ya Afya pekee.


    3. Azimio la Maputo (Msumbiji), mwaka 2003 lililohusu KILIMO NA USALAMA WA CHAKULA. Chini ya azimio hili, viongozi wa AU walikubaliana kutenga sio chini ya 10% ya bajeti nzima kwa ajili ya sekta ya Kilimo Pekee.

    Utekelezaji wetu katika hili umekuwa ni wa kusua sua katika kipindi chote kilichofuatia maazimo haya muhimu. Tukiangalia hata katika bajeti ya kwanza ya serikali mpya ya Rais Magufuli, deviation katika hilo ni ya kutisha. Kwa mfano:

    *Sekta ya AFYA - Kati ya jumla ya bajeti ya TZS trilioni 29.5 kwa mwaka wa fedha wa 2016/2017, kiasi kilichotengwa kwa ajili ya sekta ya Afya ni TZS 845 Bilioni tu, sawa na 2.8% ya bajeti yote kwa kipindi hicho vis a vis lengo la AU la angalau 15%.

    *Sekta ya ELIMU - Kati ya jumla ya bajeti ya TZS trilioni 29.5 kwa mwaka wa fedha wa 2016/2017, kiasi kilichotengwa kwa ajili ya sekta ya Elimu ni TZS 1.3 trilioni tu, sawa na 4.4% ya bajeti yote kwa kipindi hicho vis a vis lengo la AU la angalau 20%.

    *Sekta ya KILIMO - Kati ya jumla ya bajeti ya TZS trilioni 29.5 kwa mwaka wa fedha wa 2016/2017, kiasi kilichotengwa kwa ajili ya sekta ya Kilimo ni takribani TZS Bilioni 280 tu, sawa na 1% ya bajeti yote kwa kipindi hicho vis a vis lengo la AU la angalau 10%.

    Kiasi kilichotengwa kwa ajili ya sekta hizi muhimu tatu (in total) is less than 10% of the total budget. Swali linalofuata ni je, where did the 90% of the budget go? Kwa mfano jumla ya fedha zilizotengwa kwa ajili ya Sekta za Afya, Elimu na Kilimo (in total) ni kidogo kuliko fedha zilizotengwa kwa ajili ya sekta moja tu ya Miundombinu.

    Kama taifa, tumekuwa tunaimbishwa na serikali ile ile kwamba maadui watatu wa maendeleo ya nchi yetu ni:

    -Umaskini

    -Ujinga

    -Maradhi.

    Je tumefanya nini kubadilisha hali hii? Zaidi ya 70% ya watanzania wanategemea Kilimo kama shughuli ya kujipatia riziki zao, na hawa ndio sehemu kubwa ya wananchi maskini wa kipato. Kwa miaka zaidi ya 50 ya uhuru, hakuna lolote la maana ambalo limefanywa kubadilisha hali hiyo.

    Sekta za Elimu na Afya, hivyo hivyo, hali ni mbaya sana. Kwanini Serikali haielewi kwamba siri ya mafanikio ipo katika kuziendeleza sekta hizi tatu ambazo ni muhimu kwa ujenzi wa Human Capital?

    Tumekuwa tunaambiwa kwamba kasi ya uchumi inakuwa, na kwamba Tanzania ni moja ya nchi zinazofanya vizuri sana duniani. Kwa mfano tangia mwaka 2000, kasi ya kukua kwa uchumi kwa wastani ni karibia 7%. Tukumbuke kwamba mwaka 2000 wakati wadau wa maendeleo wanatuletea Mipango ya Maendeleo ya Milenia (MDGs) walisema kwamba nchi ambazo zitafanikiwa kukuza uchumi kwa kasi ya 7% kwa miaka 15 mfululizo zitakuwa katika nafasi nzuri ya kupunguza umaskini kwa asilimia isiyopungua 50%. Huu ni mwaka wa kumi na sita tunaufunga, je tumeweza kupunguza umaskini kwa kiasi gani/asilimia ngapi? Nikitaja takwimu hapa kwa mfano X%, Kobello atakuja mbio kuhoji uhalali wa namba husika kwa sababu nje ya kuvura vurga mada, hana kingine cha kufanya kulinda ujira wake Lumumba.

    Kwa kifupi, kasi ya kukua kwa uchumi katika kipindi husika haijawahi kuishirikisha sehemu kubwa na muhimu ya nguvu kazi ya nchi, kwa mfano wakulima, machinga nk. Vile vile mafanikio ya kasi hii ya kukua kwa uchumi hayajashuka chini kwa wananchi walio wengi, na hakujawa na mkakati maalum wa kuhakikisha hilo linatokea. Badala yake kinachoendelea ni wananchi kujiingiza katika shughuli za kujiokotea okotea tu ili mradi maisha yaendelee.

    Tukirudi katika suala la Human Capital na mchango wake katika maendeleo ya uchumi na watu wake, kwanini serikali haioni kwa mfano umuhimu wa “Afya” towards that end?

    - Kwa kutekeleza azimio la Abuja (Afya), tungeweza kupata faida nyingi. Kwa mfano, afya bora hupelekea gains in labor productivity. Poor health inapunguza labor force kwa maana ya mortality rates, early retirements etc. Haya ndio yanayotokea nchini sasahivi.

    - Kwa kutekeleza azimio la Dakar (Elimu), tungeweza pia kupata faida nyingi. Elimu kama ilivyo kwa afya improves labor productivity, pia inakuza entrepreneurship, innovation and technical advancement katika uchumi/taifa. Education plays a prominent role to secure economic and social progress of individuals esp improving their income/welfare (maisha bora).

    - Kwa kutekeleza azimio la Maputo (Kilimo/lishe/usalama wa chakula), vile vile tungeweza kupata faida nyingi. Nutrition enhances life span ya wananchi; lakini pia in schools and production spheres inside the economy, good nutrition helps the brain to absorb knowledge.
     
  20. Nguruvi3

    Nguruvi3 Platinum Member

    #159
    Dec 29, 2016
    Joined: Jun 21, 2010
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    Inategemea umeusoma vipi. Kama ni kumeza tu mpango unatekelezeka. Ukitumia sehemu ndogo ya akili utatambua ni nyaraka tu iliyosheheni maelezo haina substance, haitekelezeki

    Vema sana ndiyo maana nimekuambia mpango wa maendeleo kusema 'viwanda' haina maana.
    Mpango unasema viwanda bila kuanisha ni vya aina gani.
    Hivi workshop utaita kiwanda?
    Rais ameingilia kati kwasababu LG zimefeli.
    Yes Rais ni mkuu wa Central Gov, na sasa ni mkuu wa LG. Hili tu linaeleza jinsi ambavyo dhana ya LG isivyoeleweka.

    Kama tulivyojadili sana, LG zinakusudia kurudisha maamuzi kwa maeneo husika.

    Tukakupa mfano mahitaji ya Mwanga, si sawa na Muheza, Muleba au Tunduru.
    Local Gov zimepewa nguvu za kutimiza malengo kwa maeneo

    Rais anapokuwa mkuu wa CG na LG maana nzima ya LG haipo.

    Ndipo hoja ya mchambuzi inakuwa na mashiko , kwamba CG ina 'nguvu' za kupora LG.

    Mkuu haya mambo si kusoma kama kasuku, you need to read, digest and understand the contents and context. Nina uhakika unasoma
     
  21. Kobello

    Kobello JF-Expert Member

    #160
    Dec 29, 2016
    Joined: Feb 20, 2011
    Messages: 5,225
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    56. "Honourable Speaker, in recognising the importance of quality health services to the people, the Government has budgeted shillings 1.99 trillion equivalent to 9.2 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service. The areas allocated funds among others include: shillings 180.5 billion for purchase of medicines, medical equipment and reagents; shillings 71.0 billion for settlement of the outstanding Medical Stores Department debt; and improvement of health services’ infrastructure at all levels"

    Hiyo ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti ya 2016/17.

    "Since the bulk of basic education financing comes from domestic resources, the strong political will of governments for national resource mobilization is a critical factor. Governments are encouraged to invest 4-6 per cent of GNP and 15-20 per cent of public expenditure in education, depending on the country’s demographic and economic status" - WEF, Dakar Framework for Action, 2000.

    Na hii chini ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti 2016/17,

    Education .
    55. "Honourable Speaker, a total of shillings 4.77 trillion has been budgeted for the education sector equivalent to 22.1 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service. The allocation has been made to address among others: free basic education; operational costs for schools including capitation, food, purchase of books and examinations expenses; higher education students’ loans; construction and rehabilitation of infrastructures at all levels."



    Hapa chini ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti, 2016/17.

    "Concerns in Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Sector
    49. Honourable Speaker, in order to address the above challenges, the Government has budgeted shillings 1.06 trillion equivalent to 4.9 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service to finance various activities in the agriculture, livestock and fisheries sector including purchase of farm implements and inputs; improve and ensure availability of reliable market; and increase the number of extension officers."


    Hii pia ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti 2016/17.

    "52. Honourable Speaker, the Government will continue to address concerns and challenges arising from dilapidated infrastructure of railway, roads, ports and airports. In 2016/17, the Government has budgeted shillings 5.47 trillion equivalent to 25.4 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service for infrastructure projects. The allocation of funds per sector is as follows:

    (i) Works - Total of shillings 2.18 trillion for construction and rehabilitation of roads that open up economic opportunities;

    (ii) Transport – Total of shillings 2.49 trillion for: construction of a standard gauge railway line; acquisition of three new passenger aircrafts; acquisition and rehabilitation of passenger ships in lake Victoria and Tanganyika; improvement of port infrastructure; and rehabilitation of airports. Moreover, shillings 161.4 billion has been budgeted under Railway Fund for rehabilitation of central railway line and procurement of locomotives and wagons."




    Mwaka 2000 inakadiriwa kwamba 82% ya watanzania walijishughulisha na kilimo,na mpaka 2014 ilikuwa ni 67%.
    Sekta ya kilimo inaajiri watu wengi kuliko inavyotakiwa na hili siyo jambo zuri hata kidogo. Sekta hii inabidi ipunguzwe, lakini ipunguzwe kueleke manufacturing na siyo services kama ilivyo sasa.

    Kwa sasa hivi, secta ya huduma ipo stagnant na manufacturing inaongrzeka ingawa siyo katika rate itakayoleta mabadiliko yanayotakiwa.

    Nimekusoma sana unavyosisitiza investment kwenye kilimo na hii siyo structural adjustment itakayotuletea maendeleo faster.

    We can discuss Industrialization process, kwa sababu naona maoni yako kuhusu sekta ya viwanda yapo kinyume.

    What about us?
    Sekta hizi pia zipo affected na tamaduni zetu za kupenda kujisomea, usafi n.k there is a considerable research suggesting that the value for money in these sectors is very low. Yaani outcome ni ndogo mno compared to rural India for example.

    But still, there need to be more investment.

    I am not gonna stoop to your level, ila itabidi uelewe kuwa Population below poverty line in 2000 ilikuwa 84.1% na mpaka mwaka 2011 ilifikia 67.9% according to WB data. Hii ni sawa na punguzo la umasikini kwa 20%.

    Kwa kuwa umetumia MDG goals, ilitakiwa iwe 18% from 36% ($1.90 a day, 2011 PPP). mpaka 2012, ilkuwa 28.12% na hii ni roughly 22%.

    Vipimo vyote hivi vimeonyesha punguzo la umasikini kwa roughly 20% instead of 50% expected. This performance is poor na sitakubishia hilo.

    All in all, unapotumia vielelezo hapo ndipo inapojulikana how exaggerated your conclusions are, and you wonder why am I so obsessed with data?

    Data ulizotumia sijui umezipata wapi ila, kwa sisi kujua hilo linatuwezesha kujua why are you so negative? It's really bad in Tanzania but daamn!
     
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