Lengo la dira ya taifa ya 2025, inayolenga Tanzania iwe na GDP per capita ya 3,000 USD, linaweza lisifikiwe.
In 2018, GDP per capita ya TZ ilikuwa 1,134 USD. Hii ina maana GDP per capita iongezeke zaidi ya mara 1.6 in around 7 years.
The growth rate of GDP per capita iwe more than 20% per annum. Since population growth ni at least 2% per annum, then uchumi ukue kwa at least 22% per annum.
Haya ni mahesabu very rough, atakae weza kufanya more accurate calculations ana weza akaziweka hapa.
Hii nadhani haiwezekani. Hatutaweza kufikia lengo hilo la GDP per capita ya 3,000 USD.
Mfano mwingine, in 2012, the population of Kilimanjaro region was 1.64 million.
Since the regional GDP per capita of Kilimanjaro region is above the national average, this means that by 2025, the GDP of Kilimanjaro region should be at least 1.64*3,000 = 4.92 billion USD.
For Dar es Salaam region (2012 population was 4.365 million), the figure should be at least 4.365*3,000 = 13.095 billion USD (by 2025).
Hilo lengo la 3,000 USD, sidhani kama linawezekana.
Vision 2025 pia inaongelea mambo ya Peace, Unity and Stability. Good governance, Pluralistic politics na private sector.
Ili tufikie hiyo 3,000 USD huko mbeleni baada ya 2025, itabidi cylinder zote za uchumi zifanye kazi vizuri. Tusitenge makabila na mikoa fulani ambayo tuna tofautiana nayo kisiasa.
Especially wakati makabila hayo yana high levels of human capital na good entrepreneurship skills (by Tanzanian standards). Na mikoa hiyo ina sekta kama utalii ambayo ni a very big forex earner and government revenue earner.
Una weza uka practice egalitarianism (usawa) bila ku create economic distortions, na economic disincentives. Na bila ya kujenga utengano.
Una weza uka ipiga jeki mikoa ilioko nyuma bila kuifungia spidi governor mikoa ilioko mbele.
Una weza ukawapunguza kwenye civil service ya serikali kuu, kwa sababu hawa kukupa kura. Lakini ukawabakisha kidogo kwasababu serikali kuu inatoa huduma nyingi na hawa watu ni raia na pia ni walipa kodi ambao wanatumia huduma za serikali kuu. Ukiwatoa wote, wanaweza kubaguliwa kwenye kupata huduma za serikali. Kwa hiyo wanahitaji uwakilishi kwa kiasi fulani ndani ya civil service.
Na vile vile usiwapunguze kwenye serikali za mikoa yao, na mitaa yao, na halmashauri zao, kwa sababu hizo ni ‘nchi ndogo’ zao (maeneo yao ya uzawa).
Vile vile wapewe uhuru waku perform vizuri kwenye private sector. Otherwise wataishije, wata kidhi vipi mahitaji yao na hii ni nchi yao, na wana haki nayo kama wengine.
Kuhusu kuwasaidia wasukuma waendelee zaidi. Ndugu zetu wasukuma ni wengi, kama wangekuwa wamesoma, wangeweza kujaza nafasi zote za civil service, na majeshi yote na bado wakabaki. Hapo bado hujaweka wengine wa kanda ya ziwa.
So mkakati wa kuwainua wasukuma ulenge pia kuwafanya wawe wafanyabiashara wazuri, na pia waweze kujiajiri vizuri.
Hii si rahisi kwa sababu itabidi watumie hela nyingi sana na bidii nyingi sana, na maarifa mengi sana na muda mwingi sana, ili waweze kuwa na average level za human capital kama za wachagga. Na sehemu kubwa ya hela watakazo zitumia inabidi ziwe zao, na sio za serikali.
Haya yanawezekana ila yafanyike kwa upendo, unyenyekevu na kwa subira na maarifa.
In 2018, GDP per capita ya TZ ilikuwa 1,134 USD. Hii ina maana GDP per capita iongezeke zaidi ya mara 1.6 in around 7 years.
The growth rate of GDP per capita iwe more than 20% per annum. Since population growth ni at least 2% per annum, then uchumi ukue kwa at least 22% per annum.
Haya ni mahesabu very rough, atakae weza kufanya more accurate calculations ana weza akaziweka hapa.
Hii nadhani haiwezekani. Hatutaweza kufikia lengo hilo la GDP per capita ya 3,000 USD.
Mfano mwingine, in 2012, the population of Kilimanjaro region was 1.64 million.
Since the regional GDP per capita of Kilimanjaro region is above the national average, this means that by 2025, the GDP of Kilimanjaro region should be at least 1.64*3,000 = 4.92 billion USD.
For Dar es Salaam region (2012 population was 4.365 million), the figure should be at least 4.365*3,000 = 13.095 billion USD (by 2025).
Hilo lengo la 3,000 USD, sidhani kama linawezekana.
Vision 2025 pia inaongelea mambo ya Peace, Unity and Stability. Good governance, Pluralistic politics na private sector.
Ili tufikie hiyo 3,000 USD huko mbeleni baada ya 2025, itabidi cylinder zote za uchumi zifanye kazi vizuri. Tusitenge makabila na mikoa fulani ambayo tuna tofautiana nayo kisiasa.
Especially wakati makabila hayo yana high levels of human capital na good entrepreneurship skills (by Tanzanian standards). Na mikoa hiyo ina sekta kama utalii ambayo ni a very big forex earner and government revenue earner.
Una weza uka practice egalitarianism (usawa) bila ku create economic distortions, na economic disincentives. Na bila ya kujenga utengano.
Una weza uka ipiga jeki mikoa ilioko nyuma bila kuifungia spidi governor mikoa ilioko mbele.
Una weza ukawapunguza kwenye civil service ya serikali kuu, kwa sababu hawa kukupa kura. Lakini ukawabakisha kidogo kwasababu serikali kuu inatoa huduma nyingi na hawa watu ni raia na pia ni walipa kodi ambao wanatumia huduma za serikali kuu. Ukiwatoa wote, wanaweza kubaguliwa kwenye kupata huduma za serikali. Kwa hiyo wanahitaji uwakilishi kwa kiasi fulani ndani ya civil service.
Na vile vile usiwapunguze kwenye serikali za mikoa yao, na mitaa yao, na halmashauri zao, kwa sababu hizo ni ‘nchi ndogo’ zao (maeneo yao ya uzawa).
Vile vile wapewe uhuru waku perform vizuri kwenye private sector. Otherwise wataishije, wata kidhi vipi mahitaji yao na hii ni nchi yao, na wana haki nayo kama wengine.
Kuhusu kuwasaidia wasukuma waendelee zaidi. Ndugu zetu wasukuma ni wengi, kama wangekuwa wamesoma, wangeweza kujaza nafasi zote za civil service, na majeshi yote na bado wakabaki. Hapo bado hujaweka wengine wa kanda ya ziwa.
So mkakati wa kuwainua wasukuma ulenge pia kuwafanya wawe wafanyabiashara wazuri, na pia waweze kujiajiri vizuri.
Hii si rahisi kwa sababu itabidi watumie hela nyingi sana na bidii nyingi sana, na maarifa mengi sana na muda mwingi sana, ili waweze kuwa na average level za human capital kama za wachagga. Na sehemu kubwa ya hela watakazo zitumia inabidi ziwe zao, na sio za serikali.
Haya yanawezekana ila yafanyike kwa upendo, unyenyekevu na kwa subira na maarifa.
