Kusimamishwa uuzaji wa mafuta ya Iran mpaka 0 jamani ni ukweli au ndoto?

[kimsboy]

Kusimamishwa uuzaji wa mafuta ya Iran, ni ukweli au ndoto?
Mei 02, 2019 12:00 UTC
Waziri wa Mafuta wa Iran amesema, hata kama kukatwa kabisa na kufikishwa katika kiwango cha sufuri uuzaji nje wa mafuta ya Iran ni matarjio ya Marekani na nchi mbili jirani na Iran, lakini jambo hilo halitekelezeki kivitendo.
Akizungumza jana Jumatano katika ufunguzi wa Maonyesho ya 24 ya Kimataifa ya Mafuta, Gesi, Usafishaji na Petrokemikali hapa mjini Tehran, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, Waziri wa Mafuta wa Iran amesema: 'Kila mtaalamu anafahamu vyema kwamba nchi mbili jirani na Iran zinasema uongo kuhusu uwezo na akiba yao ya mafuta, hivyo haziwezi kujaza pengo linaloachwa wazi na mafuta ya Iran kwa kutumia mbinu za kimaonyesho na kisaikolojia.'
Tarehe 22 Aprili mwaka huu, Marekani ilitangaza kwamba haitarefusha muda wa kibali ilichotoa kwa ajili ya baadhi ya nchi kuendelea kuagiza mafuta kutoka Iran. Mike Pompeo, Waziri wa Mambo ya Nje wa Marekani amesema kwamba Saudi Arabia na Imarati zimetoa ahadi ya kujaza pengo litakaloachwa wazi na marufuku ya mafuta ya Iran katika soko la kimataifa. Siasa za Washington kutoa 'mashinikizo makali zaidi' dhidi ya Jamhuri ya Kiislamu ya Iran kwa madai ya kufikisha uuzaji nje wa mafuta yake katika kiwango cha sufuri zinafuatiliwa kwa karibu na watawala wa White House na ndio maana wakafutilia mbali kibali kilichotajwa kwa baadhi ya nchi zilizokuwa zimeruhisiwa kununua mafuta hayo kutoka Iran. Jambo hilo linabainisha wazi kuendelea kwa siasa zilizofeli za upande mmoja za Rais Donald Trump wa Marekani katika ngazi za kimataifa. Serikali ya Trump inatumia kila njia na mbinu ili kubadilisha sera za Jamhuri ya Kiislamu ya Iran na ndio maana ikawa inatoa mashinikizo ya kila upande ya kiuchumi dhidi ya taifa la Iran. Siasa za upande mmoja za Trump zina maana ya kulazimishwa nchi zote za dunia kufuata siasa za serikali ya Washington. Katika uwanja huo Muhsin Mujtaba, mtaalamu wa sheria za kimataifa anasema: Katika fremu ya siasa zake za upande mmoja, Marekani inataka kuilazimisha dunia iendane na matakwa pamoja na maslahi yake, jambo ambalo halikubaliki kabisa katika mtazamo wa kisheria.
Siasa za hivi sasa za Marekani dhidi ya Iran zinahatarisha usalama wa nishati ulimwenguni ni bila shaka jambo hilo litazidhuru nchi zote za dunia. Kwa kutilia maanani ukweli huo, ni wazi kuwa kuna ulazima wa kusimama imara mbele ya siasa hizo za kijuba za Marekani. Siasa za upande mmoja za Marekani zina madhara makubwa katika ngazi za kimataifa na hivyo kuna udharura wa kukabiliana nazo. Misimamo ya wazi ambayo imechukuliwa hivi karibuni na baadhi ya nchi kuhusiana na suala la kutorefushwa muda wa kibali cha Marekani kinachoziruhusu baadhi ya nchi kuendelea kununua mafuta ya Iran bila shaka inaonyesha kuwepo kwa aina fulani ya upinzani wa kimataifa dhidi ya siasa hizo hatari za Marekani, na ni wazi kuwa iwapo dunia itakaa kimya kuhusiana na suala hilo basi sheria za mwitu zitachukua nafasi ya utawala wa sheria zinazopaswa kufuatwa na jamii ya mwanadamu.
Mbali na kuanza kudhiri dalili hizo za upinzani dhidi ya siasa za kibeberu na kibabe za Marekani katika ngazi za kimataifa, katika mtazamo wa kiufundi na kielimu pia hakuna uwezekano wowote wa kuzibwa pengo linaloweza kuwachwa wazi kutokana na kusimamishwa kabisa uuzaji wa mafuta ya Iran katika soko la kimataifa. Nukta ya kwanza ni kuwa, kinyume na matarajio ya Marekani, Saudia na Imarati katika mtazamo wa kiufundi na usafishaji mafuta, hazina uwezo wa kuzalisha mafuta kuliko kiwango chao cha hivi sasa na ahadi zilizotolewa katika uwanja huo kimsingi ni za kisaikolojia tu. Nukta ya pili ni kuwa wepesi wa mafuta ya Iran unayafanya mafuta hayo yasiwe na mshindani yoyote kati ya nchi mbili hizo za Kiarabu.
Mafuta haya ya Iran katika mtazamo wa viwango vya wepesi na uzito unaohitajika katika matumizi ya viwanda mbalimbali ulimwenguni vikiwemo vya mabara ya Asia na Ulaya, yana ubora wa hali ya juu na maalumu yakilinganishwa na mafuta ya Saudi Arabia na Imarati. Ni kutokana na ukweli huo ndipo nchi nyingi za dunia zikiwemo India na Korea Kusini, zikalalamikia vikali siasa za upande mmoja za Marekani za kuyawekea vikwazo mafuta ya Iran.
Katika uwanja huo, Shirika la uchumi la Korea Kusini hivi karibuni lilitoa taarifa likitangaza kukasirishwa na uamuzi wa Marekani wa kuzuia ununuzi wa mafuta ya Iran na kusema: Hakuna mbadala mwingine bora wa mafuta sokoni kuliko mafuta ya Iran.
Viwanda vya kusafisha mafuta vya baadhi ya nchi zinazonunua mafuta kutoka Iran vinaoona tu na aina ya mafuta yanayozalishwa nchini Iran na vimejengwa kuambatana na viwango vya uzito wa mafuta ya Iran. Kwa kuzingatia mazingira yanayotawala hivi sasa katika soko la kimataifa la mafuta na ubora wa mafuta ya Iran katika soko hilo ukilinganishwa na wa mafuta ya Saudia, kivitendo hakuna mbadala wowote wa mafuta ya Iran katika soko hilo, hivyo kutumiwa mafuta kama chombo cha kisiasa bila shaka kutakuwa na matoke mabaya na hatari.
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IRAN MAFUTA

 

[dudus]

... Iran kwa kulialia hawajambo. Kama vipi aendelee kuuza mafuta yake nje maana naona kama kaufyata kimtindo vile.

 

[kimsboy]

... Iran kwa kulialia hawajambo. Kama vipi aendelee kuuza mafuta yake nje maana naona kama kaufyata kimtindo vile.

Iran ataendelea kuuza mafuta yake kama kawa watu wana phd ya kupambana na vikwazo

 

[Frank Wanjiru]

Iran ataendelea kuuza mafuta yake kama kawa watu wana phd ya kupambana na vikwazo

Labda ukanunue wewe uweke kwenye Boda Boda yako

 

[Imeloa]

Sasa kama wanaendelea kuuza hizi yowe ni za nini. Leo mnasema mafuta ya Saudia na Himarati eti sio mazuri lkn wakikosana na Marekani leo hii mtabadili gia eti sasa na wenyewe mafuta yao ni mazuri. Watu ni wanafiki sana.

 

[dudus]

Sasa kama wanaendelea kuuza hizi yowe ni za nini. Leo mnasema mafuta ya Saudia na Himarati eti sio mazuri lkn wakikosana na Marekani leo hii mtabadili gia eti sasa na wenyewe mafuta yao ni mazuri. Watu ni wanafiki sana.

... umemaliza Kiongozi!

 

[Jambazi]

watengeneze bomba la chini litakalo safirisha mafuta kutoka Iran hadi Turkmenistan theni vijengwe visima itolewe tena mapaipu ya chini ya bahari hadi Turkey, Turkey iwe inauza hayo mafuta ya Iran, simple like that

Lakini najua kabisa huyu Ayatola Ruhollah Khomeini ataupuuza huu ushauri wangu

 

[Eric Cartman]

Tatizo lenyewe linakuja umuumizi Iran pekee bali nchi nyingi tu ukizuia mafuta yake, kwanza kuna masoko ya Asia ambayo yanahitaji mafuta ya Iran kwa usalama wao. Wakianza tank wars kwenye Strait of Hormuz kama njia kuu ya kupeleka mafuta kwenye masoko ya Asia, Iran pekee ndio anakuwa mwenye uwezo wakusafirisha mafuta, well labda na Oman, wengine kupitia pipe linalounganisha nchi zao na Oman na sidhani kama lina flow capacity ya kukidhi mahitaji ya Asia.

Pili insurance za meli zinapanda maana hakuna insurer atae chukua risk za meli ambazo zinapita katika mazingira ambayo anytime inaweza tobolea na missile za Iran wakati inakatiza Strait of Hormuz, matukio ambayo yatafanya logistic za Asia kuwa very complicated na zitachukua muda and costing more money to import.

It is not in the interest of Asia countries and their economies Iran kuwekewa vizuizi, marekani yeye aimuathiri sana kwa sababu logistic zake kutoka middle east zinapitia Egypt na meli ni zao, meli za S.A kupita Strait of Yemen (The Bab-el-Mandeb) utata mpaka Yemen sasa washatoboa meli kadhaa za S.A.

Ndio maana unaona marekani kwenye kuangalia maslahi yake akemei sana kichapo anachopewa Yemen na Saudi Arabia, anajua kuna maslahi mapana ya njia ya mafuta isitoshe kuna vikundi vya waasi kati ya Sunni na Shia sponsored by Saudi Arabia na Iran ambavyo vipo kila nchi kama plan B zao hali ikizidi kuwa mbaya upande mmoja wanaweza lipua pia pipes zinazoenda Egypt au Oman kukomoana na kuleta chaos kabisa ya mafuta duniani.

Trump is not realistic na siasa za middle east na masoko yake that region has very complicated politics you get the feeling CIA cant wait to get rid of this president mbinu zake zinaathiri watu wengi sana na mwishowe zinaweza kuwarudia wao wenyewe, ndio maana wala sishangai Iran wanaposema wana Phd ya kupambana na vikwazo vya marekani maana ukizungumza mafuta ndio uchumi sasa nani atakubali apate tabu kwa sababu ya Trump if anything anachofanya ni kuipunguzia marekani support ya wabia wake katika unyonyaji already EU washamchoka.

 

[MT255]

Hiz ni rasharasha tu mvua inakuja

 

[Morgan Fisherman]

tusubiri tuone watafikia wapi

 

[ze kokuyo]

Labda ukanunue wewe uweke kwenye Boda Boda yako

Hahahaha

 

[kimsboy]

Labda ukanunue wewe uweke kwenye Boda Boda yako

Watch and see

 

[hearly]

watengeneze bomba la chini litakalo safirisha mafuta kutoka Iran hadi Turkmenistan theni vijengwe visima itolewe tena mapaipu ya chini ya bahari hadi Turkey, Turkey iwe inauza hayo mafuta ya Iran, simple like that

Lakini najua kabisa huyu Ayatola Ruhollah Khomeini ataupuuza huu ushauri wangu

Haha anakusikia au !?

 

[Imeloa]

watengeneze bomba la chini litakalo safirisha mafuta kutoka Iran hadi Turkmenistan theni vijengwe visima itolewe tena mapaipu ya chini ya bahari hadi Turkey, Turkey iwe inauza hayo mafuta ya Iran, simple like that

Lakini najua kabisa huyu Ayatola Ruhollah Khomeini ataupuuza huu ushauri wangu

That's practically impossible. Huo unaona kwako kama ujanja kwa wengine ni ujinga wa mwisho.

Nchi kama Turkmenistan inazalisha takriban tani 12 milioni za mafuta pamoja na Gas Condensate kwa mwaka takwimu ambazo CIA wanazo.

Sasa leo ghafla tu itokee eti wanazalisha tani 30 milioni kwa mwaka eti Marekani wasijue!!! Wapi na wapi. Ni wazi Iran watakuwa wameiponza vibaya Turkmenistan na hata hivyo ki-ufupi tu ni kwamba hao Turkmenistan hawawezi kuukubali huu mpango.

On Turkey, nchi hiyo haina proven oil reserves na huagiza zaidi ya 90% ya mafuta na gesi toka nje. Sasa leo ndio wakurupuke kuuza nje mamilioni ya tani ya mafuta na gesi to fool who.

In short tu ni kwamba hizi fikra ni "Mere illusions and imaginary impossibilities". Iran has simply asked for a music and they will, definitely, have to dance to its tunes.

My candid sympathies to them although I plead with them to review their country's foreign policy that is at the centre of sparking them controversy with other nations.

 

[Bokera]

Tatizo lenyewe linakuja umuumizi Iran pekee bali nchi nyingi tu ukizuia mafuta yake, kwanza kuna masoko ya Asia ambayo yanahitaji mafuta ya Iran kwa usalama wao. Wakianza tank wars kwenye Strait of Hormuz kama njia kuu ya kupeleka mafuta kwenye masoko ya Asia, Iran pekee ndio anakuwa mwenye uwezo wakusafirisha mafuta, well labda na Oman, wengine kupitia pipe linalounganisha nchi zao na Oman na sidhani kama lina flow capacity ya kukidhi mahitaji ya Asia.

Pili insurance za meli zinapanda maana hakuna insurer atae chukua risk za meli ambazo zinapita katika mazingira ambayo anytime inaweza tobolea na missile za Iran wakati inakatiza Strait of Hormuz, matukio ambayo yatafanya logistic za Asia kuwa very complicated na zitachukua muda and costing more money to import.

It is not in the interest of Asia countries and their economies Iran kuwekewa vizuizi, marekani yeye aimuathiri sana kwa sababu logistic zake kutoka middle east zinapitia Egypt na meli ni zao, meli za S.A kupita Strait of Yemen (The Bab-el-Mandeb) utata mpaka Yemen sasa washatoboa meli kadhaa za S.A.

Ndio maana unaona marekani kwenye kuangalia maslahi yake akemei sana kichapo anachopewa Yemen na Saudi Arabia, anajua kuna maslahi mapana ya njia ya mafuta isitoshe kuna vikundi vya waasi kati ya Sunni na Shia sponsored by Saudi Arabia na Iran ambavyo vipo kila nchi kama plan B zao hali ikizidi kuwa mbaya upande mmoja wanaweza lipua pia pipes zinazoenda Egypt au Oman kukomoana na kuleta chaos kabisa ya mafuta duniani.

Trump is not realistic na siasa za middle east na masoko yake that region has very complicated politics you get the feeling CIA cant wait to get rid of this president mbinu zake zinaathiri watu wengi sana na mwishowe zinaweza kuwarudia wao wenyewe, ndio maana wala sishangai Iran wanaposema wana Phd ya kupambana na vikwazo vya marekani maana ukizungumza mafuta ndio uchumi sasa nani atakubali apate tabu kwa sababu ya Trump if anything anachofanya ni kuipunguzia marekani support ya wabia wake katika unyonyaji already EU washamchoka.

Uchambuzi murua

 

[Imeloa]

Tatizo lenyewe linakuja umuumizi Iran pekee bali nchi nyingi tu ukizuia mafuta yake, kwanza kuna masoko ya Asia ambayo yanahitaji mafuta ya Iran kwa usalama wao. Wakianza tank wars kwenye Strait of Hormuz kama njia kuu ya kupeleka mafuta kwenye masoko ya Asia, Iran pekee ndio anakuwa mwenye uwezo wakusafirisha mafuta, well labda na Oman, wengine kupitia pipe linalounganisha nchi zao na Oman na sidhani kama lina flow capacity ya kukidhi mahitaji ya Asia.

Pili insurance za meli zinapanda maana hakuna insurer atae chukua risk za meli ambazo zinapita katika mazingira ambayo anytime inaweza tobolea na missile za Iran wakati inakatiza Strait of Hormuz, matukio ambayo yatafanya logistic za Asia kuwa very complicated na zitachukua muda and costing more money to import.

It is not in the interest of Asia countries and their economies Iran kuwekewa vizuizi, marekani yeye aimuathiri sana kwa sababu logistic zake kutoka middle east zinapitia Egypt na meli ni zao, meli za S.A kupita Strait of Yemen (The Bab-el-Mandeb) utata mpaka Yemen sasa washatoboa meli kadhaa za S.A.

Ndio maana unaona marekani kwenye kuangalia maslahi yake akemei sana kichapo anachopewa Yemen na Saudi Arabia, anajua kuna maslahi mapana ya njia ya mafuta isitoshe kuna vikundi vya waasi kati ya Sunni na Shia sponsored by Saudi Arabia na Iran ambavyo vipo kila nchi kama plan B zao hali ikizidi kuwa mbaya upande mmoja wanaweza lipua pia pipes zinazoenda Egypt au Oman kukomoana na kuleta chaos kabisa ya mafuta duniani.

Trump is not realistic na siasa za middle east na masoko yake that region has very complicated politics you get the feeling CIA cant wait to get rid of this president mbinu zake zinaathiri watu wengi sana na mwishowe zinaweza kuwarudia wao wenyewe, ndio maana wala sishangai Iran wanaposema wana Phd ya kupambana na vikwazo vya marekani maana ukizungumza mafuta ndio uchumi sasa nani atakubali apate tabu kwa sababu ya Trump if anything anachofanya ni kuipunguzia marekani support ya wabia wake katika unyonyaji already EU washamchoka.

Your views are motivated by religious fundamentalism and do not reflect the reality on the ground.

Iran cannot risk blocking the Strait of Hormuz because they know the attendant repercussions and the US has already sent the warships to police that maritime passage.

Other OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. have already pledged to increase their oil output to offset for the deficit that will be created by the disappearance of Irani oil.

Remember, the US is a democratic country so the CIA have no business choosing who should become the president of America like it is the case here where Tiss can call the shots on who to be imposed on the people as their "Leader". NB: The US isn't a Shithole Country.

 

[Eric Cartman]

Your views are motivated by religious fundamentalism and do not reflect the reality on the ground.

Iran cannot risk blocking the Strait of Hormuz because they know the attendant repercussions and the US has already sent the warships to police that maritime passage.

Other OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. have already pledged to increase their oil output to offset for the deficit that will be created by the disappearance of Irani oil.

Remember, the US is a democratic country so the CIA have no business choosing who should become the president of America like it is the case here where Tiss can call the shots on who to be imposed on the people as their "Leader". NB: The US isn't a Shithole Country.

It wont be their first time, they have done so in the past if you know anything about Iran-Iraq Tanker wars of the 80's

The Tanker War

NATO and Soviet naval forces in the Gulf faced new and old challenges from a variety of Iranian and Iraqi threats.

www.usni.org

You need to understand factors which mitigate supply in the region such as clashing ideological views of Sunni vs Shia and the division caused, impact of local allegiances, mistrust of each other amongst middle suppliers forming ‘Gulf Cooperation Council’ (GCC), reasoning which influences the construction of joint shared pipes. You need also to understand global reasoning in supply security, individual nations security of supply, the vulnerability of middle east politics in relation to global energy supply, which nations depend the most on the regional supply, etc.

Hence it is not surprising to see members of GCC pledging to fill the gap with Iran sanctions especially S.A and U.A.E it is what they would want to see happening in the first place those nations are rivals in their attempt to influence regional politics so there is power struggle already.