Kulikoni soko la "dhahabu ya kijani" Tanzania

[Red Giant]

Hahahaha wewe jamaa bwana, naona umekomaa na mabwanyenye.

Nahisi na Rais ana mawazo hayo kuwa anapambana na Mabwanyenye. Nasikia hawa mabwanyenye wanataka export levy ishushwe hadi nusu kutoka 15% to 7.5% ndiyo wanaweza kununua kwa bei ya 3000 kwa kilo.
Wanasema hiyo 15% baada ya mauzo ni 90bln. So serikali ikubali kushusha na kuchukua 45bln na kuwaachia wafanyabiashara 45bln. Au wabaki na 90 yao ila washushe bei kutoka 3000 na mkulima apate bei ndogo na wafanyabiadhara wapate hiyo 45bln toka kwa wakulima ?(nafikiri hili ndiyo limezoeleka kufanyika)

Naona Serikali imegoma kumpa mkulima bei ndogo na pia imegoma kupunguza 90bln yake.Ilichoamua ni kumtoa moja kwa moja huyu bwanyenye.

 

[EMT]

mkuu nakushukuru kwa kuanzisha mada na kutueleza changamoto na possible ways of how to deal with ! Ila umequote post yangu na sijaona ukiijibu moja kwa moja...je ni kweli sekta hii inaendeshwa na mabwanyenye wachache wanaotukorofisha kila msimu au la?

The Tanzania's cashew sector is a provider of in shell cashews to India. As per the article above, some have argued that cashew buyer companies are mostly individual Indians masquerading as independent buyers. The argument was supported by the existence of the 22 buying companies and the calculated concentration ratio above 40%, which suggested that the raw cashew market was oligopolistic and thus likely collusive. Moreover, rumour has it that there are only two buyer companies/families for the raw cashew destined for the Indian market.

https://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/article/viewFile/2905/2733

 

[Chige]

Mkuu Malcom Lumumba,

Got a rough weekend that's why nashindwa hata kushiriki mjadala mtamu kama huu! Lakini wakati najiandaa kupotea tena kwa mara nyingine,hebu tupeane changamoto kidogo:

Kila utakapopita Dar es salaam (am not sure about mikoani), unakutana na vijana wauza karanga kila kona! Utakutana na meza zikiwa zimesheheni mananasi, machungwa, matikiti maji, kuku wa kukaanga, kuku wa kuchoma, mishikaki, viazi mbatata, matrey kwa matrey ya mayai, samaki wa kukaanga, sinia zilizojaa pweza na ngisi nazo huzikosi!!

Kila pahala utakuta migahawa ambayo ndani yake utakutana na pilau, biriani, wali wa maji, vidudu gani sijui, na vingine sie wengine hata majina yake hatuvijui zaidi ya kuishia kusema "nipe hiyo hapo!"

SWALI: What's so special in cashew nut hadi, hata upatikanaji wake uwe adimu kweli kweli, kiasi kwamba, ukitaka korosho basi sehemu pekee yenye uhakika ni sharti uende supermarket!! Na hiyo bei yake sasa....!!!

Kwanini korosho iwe ni bidhaa inayopatikana kwa uhakika sehemu maalumu peke yake?! Au ni kwamba watu hawazipendi?!

 

[introvert]

Mkuu, binafsi nijuavyo wachumi hata wawe wanatoa maelezo ya jumla ama ya 'rejareja' (detailed information) lazima maelezo yao yaambatane na takwimu ikibidi hata katika ujumla wake. Ukweli niliouona kwenye maelezo ya Introvert nikuwa hakukuwa na hata harufu ya takwimu. Sasa hili lilinitatiza, kwani mtaalamu anayeeleza masuala yahusuyo uchumi tena kwa mbwembwe za kebehi kwa wengine anakosaje kutupa hata 'rough' figures kuhusu hoja anazozijenga? Ndiyo maana nikawa na wasiwasi uweda hana uelewa wa kutosha na hana 'facts' juu ya suala zima linaloongelewa.Ndiyo maana nikamuita aje aangale maelezo haya ili apate la kujifunza kutoka kwa wengine. Facts zimekosekana kwenye maelezo ya mchumi Introvert, hii ni kwa maoni yangu yanaweza kuwa na tofauti na ya wengine.

Naomba nikujibu kwenye hili.

Tuanze na takwimu. Tanzania hakuna taasisi yenye takwimu sawa kwenye mambo ya kilimo na biashara kwa ujumla. Ukienda kwenye bodi ya kahawa, pamba, korosho, tumbaku na ukaenda NBS na TRA unapata namba tatu tofauti. Hili nimeliona na ndiyo maana makampuni makubwa yana kitengo cha business intelligence ambapo intelijensia ya makampuni binafsi kwenye masuala ya biashara ni bora kuliko usalama wa Taifa, si matusi wala dharau, ni ukweli.

Huwezi kufanya maamuzi sahihi kama huna takwimu sahihi, na hapa tunafeli kama nchi kwani tunafanya maamuzi kwa hisia si uhalisia. Hii si kwenye kilimo tu. Ni sekta zote.

Kwenye hili suala la korosho kutumia tu report iliyowekwa hapa. Unaona Tanzania tuna-produce roughly tani 350,000 (Rais ana statistics za roughly tani 210,000, yaleyale). Ivory Coast wanaproduce roughly tani 750,000. Ivory Coast ndiyo anaongoza Afrika. Huyu ndiye key player.

Unaona Ivory Coast anaongeza production na kufikia tani 770,000 kwa mwaka 2018. Uzalishaji unapoongezeka bila uwiano sawa na ongezeko la mahitaji bei kushuka ni kitu cha kawaida. Hata Ivory Coast bei imeshuka sasa kwa nini huku isishuke?

Pia, nilishawahi kutoa huu mchango hapa. Bei ya korosho ilivyokuwa nzuri msimu uliopita nilisema Serikali isijisifu kwamba ndiyo imepandisha bei. Vietnam, ambaye na yeye anazalisha korosho kama sisi, ilipatwa na ukame (crop season 2016/17) na kusababisha kushuka kwa uzalishaji hivyo bei ikapanda. Leo hii Vietnam hana ukame kwa hiyo uzalishaji unaongezeka na hivyo bei kushuka ni sawa.

Pia mnapoangalia hizi bei na uzalishaji muangalie ubora (quality) wa korosho zinazozalishwa kuweza kufanya mlinganisho sahihi wa bei.

Kuna uwezekano, ninapotoa maoni ya kukataa kuunga hoja ya member hapa JF ninaonekana nina malengo ya kisiasa hasa kwenye nyuzi za namna hii.

Kujadiliana kwetu kumeanzia kwenye uzi huu unaopendekeza Jeshi lijenge kiwanda cha processing. Nimeuliza maswali ya msingi kabisa kwenye gharama za uzalishaji, ubora, masoko na ushindani.

Ukisoma mchango wangu nimehoji tunaweza kushindana na India na Vietnam? Ukiangalia hiyo ripoti hapo ya EMT unaona the biggest exporters to Europe na USA ni India na Vietnam.

Final consumers ni USA na Europe (angalia takwimu kwenye hiyo ripoti iliyowekwa hapa na EMT ). Kwenye mchango wangu kwenye huo uzi nimehoji hao consumers tuna mahusiano nayo ya biashara kuliko India na Vietnam. India na Vietnam zina trade agreements na EU na USA kwenye hizi commodities, sisi tunazo?

Watu wale wale mnaosema wazungu ni wezi, mabeberu, mashoga na maneno ya kama hayo ndiyo hao hao mnataka muwauzie korosho. Vitu hivi vinatia hasira kwa sababu hatuelewi maamuzi yetu na kauli zetu zinaathiri biashara ana mahusiano. Juzi tu hapa balozi wa EU "kaitwa" kwao. Nikiwaita washamba na limbukeni kwenye biashara za kimataifa mnaona dharau.

Hapa ndiyo naona maamuzi yanafanywa kisiasa na si kiuchumi, labda kwa ukosefu wa elimu (ujinga), au ni wapigaji wanaojifanya wapo bega kwa bega na Rais. Samahani lakini a spade should be called a spade.

Hili ni jambo la msingi sana. Utatuzi wa kitaalamu ni muhimu sana hasa kama wataalamu wanaohusika wanatumia utaalamu wao kwa maslahi mapana ya nchi yetu.

Nakubaliana na wewe hili ni jambo la msingi sana na wengine tunaona kilimo kinaenda kufa. Kwenye madini tumeshauri tukaonekana vibaraka wa mabeberu, leo hii tunaua sekta nzima ya madini kisa siasa za utaifa.

Tukija kwenye hili suala la wataalamu.

Kwanza kabisa, kuna vitu viwili ambavyo vinaingiliana kwa sasa na kuharibu biashara. Siasa na utaalamu. Mwanasiasa kwa sasa yupo juu ya mtaalamu. Kuna wataalamu wanafanya kazi yao vizuri lakini wanaingiliwa na wanasiasa na makosa yakitokea wao ni wa kwanza kufukuzwa.

Leo hii wataalamu kwenye nafasi za maamuzi wameamua kukaa pembeni (hata barua hawajibu) kwa sababu ya hofu ya kukwaruzana na wanasiasa. Mkuu wa wilaya tu anaweza kukufuta kazi na kukuweka ndani.

Naomba nikupe mfano mdogo tu.

Kwenye biashara ya mazao ya biashara tunajua bei hupanda na kushuka kwani bei hazitabiriki. Msimu huu inaweza kuwa 100/kilo na msimu ujayo 300/kilo. Hivyo, kabla hata ya kulima mkulima anapaswa kujua ni gharama kiasi gani ataingia na ili aweze kupata faida au hata ku-break even auze kwa bei gani.

Njia inayotumiwa kwenye sekta ya kilimo na hata baadhi ya wakulima hapa Tanzania ni kuingia mikataba na wanunuzi kabla hata hujapanda chochote shambani. Unaauza kabla hujavuna kupitia future and forward contracts.

Sasa umeshakadiria gharama zako kwa msimu, umekadiria bei ya kuuza, umetafuta mnunuzi nje na umeingia naye huu mkataba wa kuuza (forward contract), si ajabu umepokea advance tayari hata kabla hujaanza kilimo, halafu anasimama mwanasiasa anatangaza kusimamisha uuzwaji wa mazao ya biashara nje ya nchi.

Wewe mtaalamu ukienda kushauri unaonekana ni mlanguzi, kibaraka, n.k.

Hapo mkulima anapata hasara kwa sababu pesa aliyochukua inabidi arudishe , kwenye bodi bidhaa inauzika kwa bei ndogo au haihuziki na mbaya kabisa wanunuzi wanakosa confidence na soko la Tanzania.

Kesho unakuja hapa unaona mtu anamsifu mwanasiasa kwa zuio hilo. Nikisema hawa watu wajinga naonakena madharau.

Mwisho, kwa sasa mfumo huu wa kuthibiti hasara ni ngumu kufanyika kwa sababu vyama vya ushirika vimekufa na pia Serikali haiweki mazingira mazuri ya kuwapunguzia gharama wakulima kuwasaidia wakulima wadogo wadogo ambao kwao ku-break even tu ni ngumu. Ni ngumu mkulima kupata faida kwa kulima kisha kwenda kuuza sokoni. Inabidi utumie mbinu za kuthibiti hasara (hedging) uweze kufanya kilimo consistently na upate faida.

Hii ni sababu mojawapo unaona kilimo chetu kinasuasua na sasa kinaenda kuzikwa.

 

[introvert]

The Tanzania's cashew sector is a provider of in shell cashews to India. As per the article above, some have argued that cashew buyer companies are mostly individual Indians masquerading as independent buyers. The argument was supported by the existence of the 22 buying companies and the calculated concentration ratio above 40%, which suggested that the raw cashew market was oligopolistic and thus likely collusive. Moreover, rumour has it that there are only two buyer companies/families for the raw cashew destined for the Indian market.

https://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/article/viewFile/2905/2733

This could be true, but is it only in Tanzania that these buyers (who are exporting the commodity to India/Vietnam for processing) are refusing to buy at the set prices? I came across two articles showing prices aren't good in Ivory Coast as well.

..Ivory Coast Cashew Sales Slump on Low World Prices
..Ivory Coast: cashew nuts in crisis

On the flip side, is there a chance that, just may be, prices cannot be the same every season and someone has to foot in the loss? I worry it's the taxpayers who will suffer the loss should the Government spend a hefty 600 billion shillings to find no buyers willing to buy at 3,000/kilo or more.

 

[Marashi]

eti "Cashew nut INDUSTRY" hawa wasomi wetu vipi hawa wanajiokoteza vimaneno kushibisha thesis zao.

 

[EMT]

This could be true, but is it only in Tanzania that these buyers (who are exporting the commodity to India/Vietnam for processing) are refusing to buy at the set prices? I came across two articles showing prices aren't good in Ivory Coast as well.

..Ivory Coast Cashew Sales Slump on Low World Prices
..Ivory Coast: cashew nuts in crisis

On the flip side, is there a chance that, just may be, prices cannot be the same every season and someone has to foot in the loss? I worry it's the taxpayers who will suffer the loss should the Government spend a hefty 600 billion shillings to find no buyers willing to buy at 3,000/kilo or more.

Taarifa zinadai hivyo. Whether ni kweli or spini sijui:
Cashew exports may fall to 25-year low

 

[Betterhalf]

Mshaanza tayari, mimi nadhani umechanganya vitu viwili mkuu:
1. introvert aliongelea kuhusu zao la korosho katika mwanga wa uchumi kiujumla kama bidhaa nyingine.
2. EMT kazungumzia kuhusu matatizo ya kitaasisi na kisera ambayo yanalivuruga uzalishaji wa korosho.
Naomba nimnukuu vizuri mtoa mada: The study examined the root causes of incessant market failure problem facing Tanzanian cashew nut industry. The overarching hypothesis of the study was that the industry challenges are both structural and institutional.

Hapa kuna tofauti kubwa sana kama hujaiona, labda unirekebisha kwa kutokuelewa:
Mchangiaji moja anazungumzia kanuni za uchumi kiujumla katika uuzaji wa bidhaa yoyote ile akifuata kanuni kuu za uzalishaji (Laws of demand and supply in relation to market dynamics) huku akilenga soko la korosho. (Introvert huyu)

Mchangiaji mwingine kasema jinsi usimamizi wa kisera na kitaasisi wa zao la korosho ulivyo mbovu hadi kupelekea kutetereka kwa soko. Mwishoni ndiyo akagusia na kutoa mapendekezo ambayo yanahusiana na soko la korosho kiujumla. (Huyu ni EMT)

Nadhani ingekuwa ni vyema sana kama tungeacha kukwaruzana kisiasa na kutafuta ni jinsi gani tunaweza kulitatua hili tatizo kitaalamu kabisa. Kitu ambacho najua hakipo katika utamaduni wetu, lakini tujitahidi tu.

Exactly. Ni bora tungekuja na nyuzi mbili tofauti, it could be fair enough.

 

[stickvibration]

Kama wanafahamu kuwa cashnuts ni green gold warudishe export levyz za wakulima
Kamwe jasho la mlala hoi/mkulima halitoacha mtu salama‍♂️