Lucchese DeCavalcante
JF-Expert Member
- Jan 10, 2009
- 5,471
- 734
TANZANIA: Kikwete struggles with CCM factionalism
December 2, 2009
SUBJECT: Challenges facing President Jakaya Kikwete and the ruling party.
SIGNIFICANCE: November saw deep divisions between two major factions within the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), become highly publicised. Kikwete continues to hold himself aloof from the growing divisions, more out of political weakness and diminishing influence, than any assumed role as neutral arbiter.
ANALYSIS: National politics in Tanzania are increasingly dominated by manoeuvring within the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), as the 2010 elections approach. An unusually transparent division between two CCM factions has become a public spectacle since August, and dominated National Assembly proceedings in November:
CCM-Mafisadi. One CCM faction is dubbed CCM-Mafisadi, referring to CCM figures tarnished by accusations of corruption ('fisadi'). This alliance is led by former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, Member of Parliament (MP) Rostam Aziz, former Infrastructure Minister Andrew Chenge and current CCM Secretary-General Yusuf Makamba. Lowassa, Aziz and Chenge were caught up in major corruption scandals in 2008. Makamba is considered their strong ally.
CCM-Safi. The other faction -- CCM-Safi, referring to vocal anti-corruption or pure ('safi') political figures -- is led by National Assembly Speaker Samuel Sitta. Since campaigning to oust corrupt figures from the CCM, Sitta has been threatened with violence.
Factional fall-out. In mid-August, the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) unsuccessfully attempted to unseat Sitta as speaker. Since this NEC meeting, CCM-Mafisadi has undertaken a campaign to ascertain party loyalty on a region-by-region basis, using the group's considerable resources to ensure that CCM candidates selected to run for office in 2010 do not challenge it.
Both factions combined are thought to number only about 30 MPs (out of a total of 323), but the relatively high level of controversy may be attributed to Tanzania's newly aggressive and independent media. More significantly, the debate has made CCM's long-obscured divisions a matter of public record. CCM-Mafisadi retains serious financial and political clout, but CCM-Safi captures the increasingly radical public mood against institutionalised corruption.
Senior party figures have attempted to weigh in on the split, with little result. Having admonished Sitta for breaking party discipline, CCM Vice-Chairman Pius Msekwa has more recently reminded CCM members that although the party's leadership code was liberalised under the 1991 Zanzibar Declaration to allow MPs to earn extra-parliamentary income and participate in private sector businesses while in office, MPs are still prohibited under the 1967 Arusha Declaration from amassing wealth through office.
President Jakaya Kikwete has remained largely invisible throughout these reconciliation efforts. Moreover, the most visible recent political initiatives in general have come from Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda, rather than the president. Pinda recently offered vocal opposition to the notorious practice of albino killings for traditional medical purposes, and endorsed death by hanging for all those convicted of albino murders.
Amid these bitter CCM divisions, the mainland opposition Civic United Front (CUF) and Party for Democracy and Development (CHADEMA) have remained articulate critics, but have not seen any electoral gains. In October's local elections, for example, the CCM won 90% of the vote in Dar es Salaam, with many CCM candidates unopposed.
Corruption and infrastructure woes. With corruption scandals dominating Kikwete's first term in office, he has made anti-corruption efforts his administration's top priority (see TANZANIA: Graft and party rifts threaten Kikwete goals - December 28, 2007). However, few measurable outcomes have been achieved since a wave of resignations in early 2008:
The Bank of Tanzania's External Payments Arrears (EPA) account embezzlement scandal is economically significant, and a complex investigation continues.
The Richmond energy scandal demonstrated the inability of Kikwete's administration to address a major infrastructural failing: the country's excessive reliance on hydroelectric power (see TANZANIA: Energy and water strain economy - May 1, 2006). The construction of power generators was controversially and unsuccessfully outsourced to Richmond Development.
Aziz and Lowassa are the two public figures most tightly identified with the Richmond scandal. Lowassa is rumoured to have presidential ambitions, and may challenge Kikwete for the CCM presidential nomination in 2010.
The CCM split is fuelled in part by public dissatisfaction with the government's continued failure to address Tanzania's dire energy shortages. Delayed rains in November have resulted in the fourth consecutive year of severe power rationing.
Crime. Tanzania has also witnessed considerable growth in organised crime during Kikwete's tenure:
Criminals in the Dar es Salaam neighbourhood of Keko have circulated fake versions of the antibiotic Tetracycline throughout pharmaceutical markets in Dar es Salaam and several other towns.
Recent prosecutions in South Africa and the United Kingdom have revealed the entrenchment of criminal syndicates involved in drug-trafficking and vehicle theft in Tanzania. Ivory smuggling is now resurgent.
Zanzibar politics. The lone bright spot of late for Kikwete has been the surprising turn of events in Zanzibar. On November 7, CUF leader Said Sheriff Hamad formally recognised the CCM Zanzibar government led by President Amani Karume, now in his final term -- marking the first such CUF recognition since 1995. Karume in return appointed two CUF members to the Zanzibar National Assembly, which is closely divided.
Kikwete celebrated the news, asking for both sides' cooperation in healing the 14-year rift. However, Hamad has made it clear that Kikwete -- like his predecessor Benjamin Mkapa -- has failed to live up to promises to break this stalemate (see TANZANIA: Zanzibar talks breakdown pressures Kikwete - June 19, 2008). The CUF reiterated its desire to put an end to mainland control over Zanzibar's political destiny.
Hamad will most likely make a fourth run as the CUF's presidential candidate in Zanzibar's elections. Karume is constitutionally barred from running for a third term, and no clear successor has emerged as the CCM's Zanzibar presidential candidate.
News of the CUF's recognition of the Karume government met with scepticism and even hostility among CUF supporters. Despite this rapprochement between Karume and Hamad, grassroots tension has been building in anticipation of the 2010 election:
In September, violence erupted across the island of Pemba and in parts of Zanzibar after the Zanzibar Electoral Commission announced that Zanzibar identity cards were a necessary prerequisite to voter registration, to safeguard against 'ghost' voters.
Many Pembans, who overwhelmingly support the CUF, claim that the government has instead systematically denied them state identity cards, and is attempting to secure another CCM electoral victory through anti-democratic means.
The CUF also claims that the CCM is rigging the 2010 election with the assistance of an Israeli company that has a contract supporting identity card production.
Since the November 7 recognition, CCM-appointed village leaders have continued to be targeted with arson and physical assault in Pemba.
Outlook. The CUF and CHADEMA may gain some seats in next year's national elections, but the country's political destiny remains in the hands of the CCM, which despite its great fissures shows little sign of actual break-up. Kikwete's favourability rating remains, in Tanzanian terms, rather low at just above 50%, his brief popularity bump following the 2008 Richmond scandal resignations having long since passed.
Kikwete's popular anti-corruption rhetoric and general passivity in 2009 may make him suitable for renomination within the CCM, should party elders and CCM-Safi figures agree that he is the best alternative. However, should CCM-Mafisadi continue to take over patronage structures within the CCM, Kikwete may find himself displaced by a more energetic and powerful party figure.
CONCLUSION: Tensions within the ruling CCM and relatively low public approval in the wake of energy shortages and corruption scandals have complicated Kikwete's prospects for re-election. The CCM is unlikely to split, and it will continue to dominate the country's national-level politics -- although not necessarily in Zanzibar -- but Kikwete's candidacy is not assured.
Source: Oxford Analytica
December 2, 2009
SUBJECT: Challenges facing President Jakaya Kikwete and the ruling party.
SIGNIFICANCE: November saw deep divisions between two major factions within the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), become highly publicised. Kikwete continues to hold himself aloof from the growing divisions, more out of political weakness and diminishing influence, than any assumed role as neutral arbiter.
ANALYSIS: National politics in Tanzania are increasingly dominated by manoeuvring within the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), as the 2010 elections approach. An unusually transparent division between two CCM factions has become a public spectacle since August, and dominated National Assembly proceedings in November:
CCM-Mafisadi. One CCM faction is dubbed CCM-Mafisadi, referring to CCM figures tarnished by accusations of corruption ('fisadi'). This alliance is led by former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, Member of Parliament (MP) Rostam Aziz, former Infrastructure Minister Andrew Chenge and current CCM Secretary-General Yusuf Makamba. Lowassa, Aziz and Chenge were caught up in major corruption scandals in 2008. Makamba is considered their strong ally.
CCM-Safi. The other faction -- CCM-Safi, referring to vocal anti-corruption or pure ('safi') political figures -- is led by National Assembly Speaker Samuel Sitta. Since campaigning to oust corrupt figures from the CCM, Sitta has been threatened with violence.
Factional fall-out. In mid-August, the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) unsuccessfully attempted to unseat Sitta as speaker. Since this NEC meeting, CCM-Mafisadi has undertaken a campaign to ascertain party loyalty on a region-by-region basis, using the group's considerable resources to ensure that CCM candidates selected to run for office in 2010 do not challenge it.
Both factions combined are thought to number only about 30 MPs (out of a total of 323), but the relatively high level of controversy may be attributed to Tanzania's newly aggressive and independent media. More significantly, the debate has made CCM's long-obscured divisions a matter of public record. CCM-Mafisadi retains serious financial and political clout, but CCM-Safi captures the increasingly radical public mood against institutionalised corruption.
Senior party figures have attempted to weigh in on the split, with little result. Having admonished Sitta for breaking party discipline, CCM Vice-Chairman Pius Msekwa has more recently reminded CCM members that although the party's leadership code was liberalised under the 1991 Zanzibar Declaration to allow MPs to earn extra-parliamentary income and participate in private sector businesses while in office, MPs are still prohibited under the 1967 Arusha Declaration from amassing wealth through office.
President Jakaya Kikwete has remained largely invisible throughout these reconciliation efforts. Moreover, the most visible recent political initiatives in general have come from Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda, rather than the president. Pinda recently offered vocal opposition to the notorious practice of albino killings for traditional medical purposes, and endorsed death by hanging for all those convicted of albino murders.
Amid these bitter CCM divisions, the mainland opposition Civic United Front (CUF) and Party for Democracy and Development (CHADEMA) have remained articulate critics, but have not seen any electoral gains. In October's local elections, for example, the CCM won 90% of the vote in Dar es Salaam, with many CCM candidates unopposed.
Corruption and infrastructure woes. With corruption scandals dominating Kikwete's first term in office, he has made anti-corruption efforts his administration's top priority (see TANZANIA: Graft and party rifts threaten Kikwete goals - December 28, 2007). However, few measurable outcomes have been achieved since a wave of resignations in early 2008:
The Bank of Tanzania's External Payments Arrears (EPA) account embezzlement scandal is economically significant, and a complex investigation continues.
The Richmond energy scandal demonstrated the inability of Kikwete's administration to address a major infrastructural failing: the country's excessive reliance on hydroelectric power (see TANZANIA: Energy and water strain economy - May 1, 2006). The construction of power generators was controversially and unsuccessfully outsourced to Richmond Development.
Aziz and Lowassa are the two public figures most tightly identified with the Richmond scandal. Lowassa is rumoured to have presidential ambitions, and may challenge Kikwete for the CCM presidential nomination in 2010.
The CCM split is fuelled in part by public dissatisfaction with the government's continued failure to address Tanzania's dire energy shortages. Delayed rains in November have resulted in the fourth consecutive year of severe power rationing.
Crime. Tanzania has also witnessed considerable growth in organised crime during Kikwete's tenure:
Criminals in the Dar es Salaam neighbourhood of Keko have circulated fake versions of the antibiotic Tetracycline throughout pharmaceutical markets in Dar es Salaam and several other towns.
Recent prosecutions in South Africa and the United Kingdom have revealed the entrenchment of criminal syndicates involved in drug-trafficking and vehicle theft in Tanzania. Ivory smuggling is now resurgent.
Zanzibar politics. The lone bright spot of late for Kikwete has been the surprising turn of events in Zanzibar. On November 7, CUF leader Said Sheriff Hamad formally recognised the CCM Zanzibar government led by President Amani Karume, now in his final term -- marking the first such CUF recognition since 1995. Karume in return appointed two CUF members to the Zanzibar National Assembly, which is closely divided.
Kikwete celebrated the news, asking for both sides' cooperation in healing the 14-year rift. However, Hamad has made it clear that Kikwete -- like his predecessor Benjamin Mkapa -- has failed to live up to promises to break this stalemate (see TANZANIA: Zanzibar talks breakdown pressures Kikwete - June 19, 2008). The CUF reiterated its desire to put an end to mainland control over Zanzibar's political destiny.
Hamad will most likely make a fourth run as the CUF's presidential candidate in Zanzibar's elections. Karume is constitutionally barred from running for a third term, and no clear successor has emerged as the CCM's Zanzibar presidential candidate.
News of the CUF's recognition of the Karume government met with scepticism and even hostility among CUF supporters. Despite this rapprochement between Karume and Hamad, grassroots tension has been building in anticipation of the 2010 election:
In September, violence erupted across the island of Pemba and in parts of Zanzibar after the Zanzibar Electoral Commission announced that Zanzibar identity cards were a necessary prerequisite to voter registration, to safeguard against 'ghost' voters.
Many Pembans, who overwhelmingly support the CUF, claim that the government has instead systematically denied them state identity cards, and is attempting to secure another CCM electoral victory through anti-democratic means.
The CUF also claims that the CCM is rigging the 2010 election with the assistance of an Israeli company that has a contract supporting identity card production.
Since the November 7 recognition, CCM-appointed village leaders have continued to be targeted with arson and physical assault in Pemba.
Outlook. The CUF and CHADEMA may gain some seats in next year's national elections, but the country's political destiny remains in the hands of the CCM, which despite its great fissures shows little sign of actual break-up. Kikwete's favourability rating remains, in Tanzanian terms, rather low at just above 50%, his brief popularity bump following the 2008 Richmond scandal resignations having long since passed.
Kikwete's popular anti-corruption rhetoric and general passivity in 2009 may make him suitable for renomination within the CCM, should party elders and CCM-Safi figures agree that he is the best alternative. However, should CCM-Mafisadi continue to take over patronage structures within the CCM, Kikwete may find himself displaced by a more energetic and powerful party figure.
CONCLUSION: Tensions within the ruling CCM and relatively low public approval in the wake of energy shortages and corruption scandals have complicated Kikwete's prospects for re-election. The CCM is unlikely to split, and it will continue to dominate the country's national-level politics -- although not necessarily in Zanzibar -- but Kikwete's candidacy is not assured.
Source: Oxford Analytica
