Elections 2010 Je Kikwete atakubali matokeo au atakuwa kama Mugabe

CCM is a juggernaut! They (It) will win easily and convincingly. Anybody who thinks otherwise they are deluding themselves. It is going to be a while before CCM can lose in the general election especially the presidency....

Dude, you need to see what is happening on the ground, the guy has lost his legitimacy big time, not leviathan anymore. His party is no longer regarded as the one with divine right. Uchungu wa maisha umewafanya watu wawe na msahaka makaubwa. During the run up to the primaries TISS walikuwa wanahaha kukusanya kura za mheshimiwa, ushindi aliopata kwenye primaries ni TISS walimsaidia si kwamba ana heba tena ndani ya chama na kwa watanzania. Kila mtu anajua kuwa serikali yake ni dhaifu ni ni full wasanii. Sikatai kuwa anaweza kushinda, lakini sio kwa urahisi. It will take a lot of $$$$, sweat, tears and blood, not so easy.
 
Mkandara,

Are you a betting man? It doesn't have to be money, we can bet reputations. Turudie hii thread baada ya uchaguzi.Mimi nasema Kikwete anashinda, no brainer, wewe unaweza kusema hivyo kwa Slaa?
Mkuu wangu naweza kusema kulingana na nafasi ya Dr. Slaa kabla na hadi kufikia leo hii - huko mbeleni sijui, Na sielewi Chadema wana mipango gani kuendeleza umaarufu alokuwa nao Dr.Slaa uzidi kupanda, sielewi Chadema wameweka mikakati gani ya kampeni dhidi ya ile ya CCM lakini hadi leo hii zikipigwa kura Dr.Slaa atamfunika JK kama nilivyofikiria siku za awali kwa kutazama uwezekano..Nashukuru Mungu, Chadema na Dr. Slaa waliweza kunisikia kwa hiyo..

Swala kubwa ulouliza kuhusiana na Chadema wamefanya nini au Dr.Slaa amefanya nini kustahili ushindi? Hakika unashindwa kuelewa kwamba kazi kubwa ya Upinzani popote pale duniani ni kutofanya kitu zaidi ya kuonyesha udhaifu wa uongozi, sera na ilani za chama ambazo zimeshindwa kuwaletea maendeleo.

Obama na Domocratic hawakufanya kitu chochote wakati Bush yupo madarakani isipokuwa waliweza kuonyesha mapungufu yake na wakaonyesha sababu ya uchumi wao kudondoka, Haki ktk Social issues, kuiweka Marekani ktk hatari zaidi (Usalama wa Taifa) pamoja na Mazingira.Na muhimu zaidi wao watafanya nini tofauti! - Huwezi kunambia ati Democratic walifanya nini kustahili ushindi au huyo Obama alifanya kipi kustahili kumshinda McCain - Hakuna.

Ndivyo ilivyo sehemu zote duniani, siku zote upinzani hawana sababu ya kununua madaraka kama hao kina Lowassa, Chenge na kina Mramba kutumia fedha zao za mfukoni kujiwekea nafasi ya ushindi hali Ubunge hautakiwi kuwa hivyo. Na maadamkweli sisi ni maskini watu kama Lowassa wamekuwa wakisifiwa zaidi pasipo kufahamu kwamba hwa viongozi wanauza Uhuru wetu, ardhi yetu na uzalendo wao kwa wawekezaji haramu ili mradi wapate fedha za ziada kununua wadhifa.

Loosers ni wananchi ambao taratibu wana loose ardhi, mashamba na nyumba zao na kadhalika kwa kufikiria wamejengewa barabara, hospital na Zahanati. Wabunge au viongozi kama hawa hawana tofauti na Barricks waliyoyafanya Bulyanhulu, Tarime na Kahama. Migodi yao (yetu) worth billions (maliasili) imechukuliwa bure kwa kuvutiwa maji toka Ziwa Nyanza na kujengewa barabara, shule na hospital wakati Barricks wakivuta mabillioni ya fedha. Tunauziwa vitu ambavyo vimeweza kuletwa na hata NGos za kidini (World vision) bure tumeuziwa na Barricks vitu hivyo hivyo kwa gharama kubwa ya Uhuru wetu. Na kwa ujinga huu wa kupenda vya bure CEO wa Barricks anaweza kugombea urais nchini akapewa vilevile.. ndio akili ya Mdanganyika.

Chadema hawana sababu, nia wala uwezo wa kuwachuuza wananchi kwasiasa kama hizi. Uzalendo wao (Patroitism) ndio utawaweka meza kubwa.
 
Kikwete alitumia combination, psychology, Statistics, siasa na mkwala...
Psychology

Reinforcement theory: there are two types of reinforcement: positive and negative.
Positive reinforcement results when the occurrence of a valued behavioral consequence has the effect of strengthening the probability of the behavior being repeated. An example of positive reinforcement might be a teacher that exerts extra effort to make more students pass the national exams (behavior) and is then rewarded with a bonus (positive reinforcer).
The administration of the positive reinforcer should make it more likely that the teacher will continue to exert the necessary effort in the future.
Likewise, teacher is sticking to get his salary increased, and is then immediately rewarded with a high salary (positive reinforcer), this will make it more likely that the teacher will continue using strike to get his demand met or blackmailing e.g using ballot

Negative reinforcement results when an undesirable behavioral(strike) consequence is withheld, negative reinforcement attempts to increase desired behavior (discourage strike). An example of negative reinforcement might be a teacher that is tricking to get his salary increased (behavior), which is followed by a decision not to rise his salary/ignore (negative reinforcer).


Statistics
alitumia numba kulingana na bajeti ya nchi, kuwa huwezi toa zaidi ya ulichonacho.. na huwezi gawa kipato chako wa mtoto mmoja wakati wapo kibao wanategemea mfuko huo huo. Ndio maana hata Dr. Slaa mwenyewe anasema anazitaka kura alizozikataa kikwete na atawajari lakini hasema kuwa akishinda atawalipa huo mshahara walioutaka walimu.
Kisiasa, alitaka kuonesha kuwa walimu au wafanyakazi wa serikali walikuwa wanaangali masilahi yao zaidi ( japo hata wanasiasa wakibongo wengi ni design hii) kuliko ya walalahoi (majority) wengine ambao si waalimu.

Kushinda kwa Kikwete au Dr. Slaa kutategemea zaidi kampeni na kucheza na ngome zao. CCM ngome yao ipo vijijini ambako ufisadi kwao ni ukame, wanyama na ndege wanaoharibu mazao yao….as long as mvua inanyesha na wanavuna, then siasa wanaona ni deal za watu wa town…wamepita warais wangapi Tanzania, lakini hali ya wakulima ni ileile?
 
Hata bunge CCM watafunika tu unless a miracle of biblical proportions happens..... Mark my words

Tatizo ni watu, the electorate. We don't have sustained indignation as a whole and we fail to connect the current state of affairs with/ to CCM. Once we able to do that and be able to sustain our anger, we can kiss CCM goodbye....

My dear friend Nyani,
we meet again during elections albeit it is Tanzania voting this time not US... I think that again like with Obama u r underestimating the underdog ... what people are doing in Tanzania is unprecedented and this time things are far more serious than last time, the stakes are high....
With regard to connecting current state of affairs to CCM I think the opposition has done a very good job specifically Slaa
With regard to sustaining the anger, I think CCM cocked up the primaries and has shown people how corrupt their internal system is..
There are a number of things working int he favor of the opposition .. this is going to be an interesting election and the results may surprise many cynicals including you!
:hippie:
 
Upepo unaiendea ndivyo sivyo CCM haikutegemea itakuwa hivi ilivyo leo, ule wimbo wa kushinda kwa kishindo siku hizi hauimbiki, wakitaka kuuimba lazima kwanza waangalie kulia na kushoto, ila chonde chonde wasitupeleke tusikotaka wakishindwa wakubali yaishe kama wapinzani wanavyokubali pindi washindwapo.
 
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