Game Theory
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 5, 2006
- 8,545
- 799
Events (dear boy) are the joker in the game of politics . Former Premier Edward Lowassa's apologies for the Richmond (Richmonduli) fiasco yesterday were as handsome and dignified as they could be in the circumstances. Let us hope, for his sake, he told us the whole truth and nothing but the truth. But even if he did, the ramifications are far from over.
The reason ministers behave so stupidly is that JK's made clear to them that their survival prospects hinged on looking busy. There had to be a constant flow of initiatives to create an illusion of dynamic modernisation and to hog the headlines. Bad policies were better than no policies, even when inaction (another word for stability) would have been preferable and much cheaper.
Most examples of Jakaya Kikwete's (JK) government incompetence are quite obscure. Though the cost of Mwakyembe's committee investigation may be millions, But Richmond Scandal has demonstrated that government errors have real-life, real-time consequences as people had no electricity and astronomical loss to business and revenue for the government
Of course as usual JK will fight on doggedly; he knows all about long campaigns. It took him 10 years to get where he is today. But in the present climate he can do nothing right.
The charge now is not that he and his ministers are uniquely incompetent – Murphy's law applies to governments of all political persuasions – but that the system is uniquely broken. This is a direct challenge not only to JK's reputation for sound administration but also to the belief of the "Wanamtandao" that an active, centralised state is still a force for good.
Privately, JK could sneer that his predecessor (Mr MKAPA) was a lightweight when it came to delivery. That was indeed Mkapa's tragedy. But JK's supporters claimed nobody understood the micro-machinery of government as well as their hero by dint of his long tenure of the Foreign Affairs. Then finally their man got to the State House to pull the levers of government for himself. Only to find that the machinery didn't work. That is his tragedy.
Critics home in on CCM's governing style. In management theory there is only a 50% chance of orders being followed when the chief executive gives a top-down command. Halve that figure again when it comes to the chance of those orders being well executed. Most efficient corporate organisations are therefore either decentralised or standardised so that a fallible human being can, say, flip a hamburger in the same way the whole world over.
LOWASSA and JK have been issuing commands, targets and overnight initiatives to a creaking Kivukoni machine as if Tanzania were the Soviet Union. The system can't cope. The decentralisers are having the better of the argument in politics right now. Government is neither efficient nor accountable.
Lets face it there is no organisation in the world with similar responsibilities which is as utterly cavalier as Tanzanias government about the capability of people it puts into ministerial positions. In other words it's hopeless. One gets appointed before the weekend and is making big spending decisions on the Monday without a clear mandate. Some people in the CCM comfort themselves because public opinion is volatile, and hope it will soon recover. Yet it seems equally likely that the momentum against CCM is still gathering pace in both real and virtual world
If JK seriously wishes to break with the Mkapa's past, I have a modest proposal. He should penalise ministers who appear busy. Initiatives should be banned. Even suggesting a new computer system should bring instant dismissal. Stability would then reign, JK would be hailed as a wise leader and CCM's position in the polls would climb. It would be a worrying scenario for the Opposition.
Some chance! JK has been more besotted with initiatives even than Mkapa. He loves to meddle where there is no need and he is addicted to micro-management. His record on Dar es Salaam port fiasco shows that he enjoys repeated upheaval and has a penchant for massive information technology systems that haemorrhage public money. (even this his office does not have a website!) So lets face it JK's new cabinet ministers will continue to implement harebrained schemes that civil servants thought would never see the light of day.
With apologies to CCM, wanamtandao na makada, your man Jakaya Kikwete is not governing but drowning. He knows it, we know it and you know it.
-GAME THEORY
The reason ministers behave so stupidly is that JK's made clear to them that their survival prospects hinged on looking busy. There had to be a constant flow of initiatives to create an illusion of dynamic modernisation and to hog the headlines. Bad policies were better than no policies, even when inaction (another word for stability) would have been preferable and much cheaper.
Most examples of Jakaya Kikwete's (JK) government incompetence are quite obscure. Though the cost of Mwakyembe's committee investigation may be millions, But Richmond Scandal has demonstrated that government errors have real-life, real-time consequences as people had no electricity and astronomical loss to business and revenue for the government
Of course as usual JK will fight on doggedly; he knows all about long campaigns. It took him 10 years to get where he is today. But in the present climate he can do nothing right.
The charge now is not that he and his ministers are uniquely incompetent – Murphy's law applies to governments of all political persuasions – but that the system is uniquely broken. This is a direct challenge not only to JK's reputation for sound administration but also to the belief of the "Wanamtandao" that an active, centralised state is still a force for good.
Privately, JK could sneer that his predecessor (Mr MKAPA) was a lightweight when it came to delivery. That was indeed Mkapa's tragedy. But JK's supporters claimed nobody understood the micro-machinery of government as well as their hero by dint of his long tenure of the Foreign Affairs. Then finally their man got to the State House to pull the levers of government for himself. Only to find that the machinery didn't work. That is his tragedy.
Critics home in on CCM's governing style. In management theory there is only a 50% chance of orders being followed when the chief executive gives a top-down command. Halve that figure again when it comes to the chance of those orders being well executed. Most efficient corporate organisations are therefore either decentralised or standardised so that a fallible human being can, say, flip a hamburger in the same way the whole world over.
LOWASSA and JK have been issuing commands, targets and overnight initiatives to a creaking Kivukoni machine as if Tanzania were the Soviet Union. The system can't cope. The decentralisers are having the better of the argument in politics right now. Government is neither efficient nor accountable.
Lets face it there is no organisation in the world with similar responsibilities which is as utterly cavalier as Tanzanias government about the capability of people it puts into ministerial positions. In other words it's hopeless. One gets appointed before the weekend and is making big spending decisions on the Monday without a clear mandate. Some people in the CCM comfort themselves because public opinion is volatile, and hope it will soon recover. Yet it seems equally likely that the momentum against CCM is still gathering pace in both real and virtual world
If JK seriously wishes to break with the Mkapa's past, I have a modest proposal. He should penalise ministers who appear busy. Initiatives should be banned. Even suggesting a new computer system should bring instant dismissal. Stability would then reign, JK would be hailed as a wise leader and CCM's position in the polls would climb. It would be a worrying scenario for the Opposition.
Some chance! JK has been more besotted with initiatives even than Mkapa. He loves to meddle where there is no need and he is addicted to micro-management. His record on Dar es Salaam port fiasco shows that he enjoys repeated upheaval and has a penchant for massive information technology systems that haemorrhage public money. (even this his office does not have a website!) So lets face it JK's new cabinet ministers will continue to implement harebrained schemes that civil servants thought would never see the light of day.
With apologies to CCM, wanamtandao na makada, your man Jakaya Kikwete is not governing but drowning. He knows it, we know it and you know it.
-GAME THEORY
