Hapa kwenye Gesi Asilia, Serikali imetuuza tena kama Madini, Raisi Magu Tafadhali!

[Barbarosa]

Ukisoma hiyo Habari yote utaona ya kwamba hatujajifunza sana kutoka kwenye Madini yetu, kwa maana hapa kwenye Gesi yetu tutapata asilima 7.7 (7.5%) kama mrabaha kumbuka kwenye madini tunapata 3% hivyo ni mara mbili yake tu na kibaya zaidi kiko hapa kwamba Makampuni yatalazimishwa kuchangia kama yakipata faida ya uuzwaji wa Gesi yetu!

Sasa hapa ndipo mchezo utakapochezwa kwa maana tutalipwa tu kama kuna ushahidi haya makampuni yatapata faida na haya makampuni yana uzoefu mkubwa sana na hizi sheria wana watalaamu wa kutosha kuweza kudanganya na kutuambia kwamba hawapati faida na watafanya hivyo kwa miaka hata 20 na uthibitisho hawatakosa kama kurudisha gharama za uwekezaji hata hii ya kudai kusomesha Watz Ulaya watasema imewagharimu kwenye kuweza kupata faida!

Hivyo naishauri Serikali yetu chini ya Raisi Magufuli na Wazriri Muhogo huu ni wizi kama tu wizi wa kwenye madini na miaka 50 ijayo tutakuwa kama tulivyo leo hii kwenye madini hakuna chochote ch kuonyesha kilichotokana na gesi yetu, hivyo ni bora tuache tuwekeze kwenye ujuzi kwanza ili hapo baadaye TPDC yetu iweze kufanya haya yote hata kama ni kwa low scale klk kwenda hivi!


Market Conditions Will Limit Tanzania's Natural Gas Sector



Tanzania finally passed a petroleum bill July 5 regulating the country's growing hydrocarbon sector, the first major bill of its kind since Tanzania's emergence as a potential source of significant natural gas production. The petroleum law establishes several key parameters for new investment in the sector, including prioritizing natural gas production for the country's domestic market where it can be used to support the city of Dar es Salaam's manufacturing and industrial potential.


The law is part of Tanzania's attempts to cement its place as one of the Indian Ocean Basin's next major natural gas exporters. Reaching this goal will be challenging, however, given that others — including Australia, Mozambique, Canada and the United States — are pursuing the same goal on a similar time frame. These competitors will prove more appealing to investors, limiting the expansion of the Tanzanian natural gas sector, at least in the next decade. But even small natural gas export growth could have a tremendous impact on Tanzania.


Analysis

East Africa has seen a string of successful hydrocarbon discoveries over the past decade. Along with Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Mozambique and Madagascar have had varying degrees of success in the development of, and production from, hydrocarbons. While this success will significantly impact the respective East African countries' domestic economies, Tanzania and Mozambique will have the greatest impact on global natural gas markets.


Tanzania has been producing small amounts of natural gas since mid-2004, when the Songo Songo natural gas field came online. Its first major deep-water discovery occurred in 2010-2011, when the British companies BG Group and Ophir drilled three successful wells. Statoil, ExxonMobil and others have also seen successes since then, which have pushed the region's natural gas reserves to an estimated 1.6 trillion cubic meters, a figure that is still rising.


International oil companies are considering major investments in deep-water production facilities and eventually natural gas liquefaction plants, where overall investments would likely exceed $20 billion to $30 billion. At a minimum, the corporations are exploring options to build a two-train liquefied natural gas facility that could be in operation by 2020 with the potential for expansion in the event of additional natural gas discoveries. (An LNG train is the plant's liquefaction and purification facility.)


Regulatory Changes

In light of these discoveries, Tanzania began reassessing its regulations and laws regarding the sector, though up until now it had not accomplished much in the way of regulatory changes. Meanwhile, to encourage exploration, Tanzania accepted bids for its fourth licensing round in May 2014. No licenses were ever issued, however, because the energy ministry has been mired in a scandal that led to the energy minister's resignation in January and an overhaul of the Cabinet. Moreover, the government wanted to wait for the passage of the petroleum bill, which gives it more power to regulate the sector and more revenue from projects. In fact, Tanzania might even cancel the round to take advantage of the new petroleum bill.



A Conversation with Tanzanian President Jakaya KikweteFree


Under the new legislation, proposed deep-water offshore blocks would have a 7.5 percent royalty, the share of profit on natural gas would exceed 60 percent, and companies would be forced to satisfy Tanzania's domestic natural gas market — and support any potential natural gas-fueled manufacturing industry — before exporting natural gas. In a move to offset this hit to the international oil companies, Tanzania has also extended the initial development contract length from 20 years to 25 years in recognition of the long investment horizon for LNG options.


Even with these regulatory changes to fiscal and contractual terms, Tanzania remains an attractive investment destination. Details must still be worked out, such as what compensation will be paid for natural gas prioritized for the domestic market and how to divide domestic obligations between oil and natural gas companies operating under different contractual models. But the main challenge for Tanzania and companies operating there are emerging market conditions. When Tanzania was first considered a potential deep-water oil and natural gas producer back in the mid-2000s, natural gas supplies were much tighter. One decade later, the supply picture has changed, of course.


Australia is now massively expanding its LNG export capacity, with seven facilities coming online between 2014 and 2017, bringing 84 billion cubic meters of annual export capacity. Already, companies investing in Australia's LNG export business, including BG Group, have seen their fortunes reverse and are struggling to find long-term contract options for their remaining uncontracted capacity. Meanwhile, the United States has approved eight projects to export LNG to countries regardless of whether they have a free trade agreement with the United States. One of these projects, Cheniere's Sabine Pass LNG facility, is expected to begin exports later this year; it has six trains planned.


In Africa, Tanzania's development lags behind that of Mozambique, which will likely have its own LNG facilities come online first. Mozambique has had more discoveries than Tanzania, with U.S. oil and gas exploration firm Anadarko's Area 1 block alone having more than 2.1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and Eni's Area 4 block almost as much. Eni is proposing to have its Coral floating LNG project enter service by 2019, and Anadarko has already awarded contracts to a consortium led by Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. for an onshore LNG facility that would also come online in 2019. Both Anadarko and Eni are looking to make final investment decisions by the end of 2015.


Race Against Time


Tanzania's biggest challenge is a race against time. The sheer amount of LNG capacity coming online over the next decade could overwhelm the market. Tanzania has gained relatively little investment thus far and must compete for space with projects that are already entering production (Australia) or are close to making that leap (the United States and Mozambique). Tanzania's struggles to quickly pass the bill and the uncertainty surrounding the law, the energy ministry and the upcoming national elections have delayed potential investments and decision-making, allowing its competitors to move even further ahead.


Most damaging to its ability to compete, Tanzania might have the highest development costs of all of the countries looking to export significant volumes of LNG. LNG facilities in North America are a mixture of completely new facilities and existing LNG import facilities modified to liquefy and export natural gas. The United States already has a well-developed and well-maintained natural gas pipeline system that those facilities can tap into and feed their plants, so facility construction and modification expenses represent the extent of the capital costs the companies will be investing in. Tanzania, by contrast, has almost no existing infrastructure to tap into and does not have a domestic service industry to help support its development. Everything will need to be brought in, adding to the costs of development in Tanzania (as well as Mozambique).


Expectations regarding the pace of Tanzania's natural gas development should therefore be tempered. With China continuing to expand its own domestic production through shale gas exploration and its pipeline commitments from Russia, an impending oversupply of LNG hitting the market is a near certainty — at least for the next five years — making oil companies hesitant to jump into Tanzania as long as more attractive and competitive options exist. Lower energy prices forcing companies to cut capital expenditure budgets are another factor. When the market readjusts in five to 10 years, however, Tanzania will begin to look more appealing. In the meantime, oil companies will continue to explore and appraise the country, inevitably making new discoveries for small-scale export.

Market Conditions Will Limit Tanzania's Natural Gas Sector

 

[goldensylva]

I beg to differ. Kupata mwanga wa hoja yako ni lazima upitie na kuelewa "fiscal terms za model production sharing agreements" Nadhani zipo kwenye website ya TPDC. Cost recovery mara nyingi huwa ni challenge kwa nchi nyingi, but regular auditing ya Serikali either kupitia TPDC au MEM inaondoa uwezekano wa hayo makampuni kutuibia. Kwa sheria mpya ya Petroli sasa mgawanyo wa faida unaweza kufika mpaka asilimia 80 kwa serikali na 20 kwa makampuni. Kiasi cha chini kabisa kupata ni asilimia 50 kwa 50. Kumbuka hapo serikali haijaingia risk yoyote wakati makampuni yameingia in billions of dollars. Hoja ya tungoje miaka 50....hii ni biashara, market haitatungoja...na certainly risk ni kubwa mno kwa serikali kufanya utafutaji.

 

[ndege JOHN]

Haya mambo siwez kuchangia naona ya hitaji watalam ma economist
Ila sidhani kama magufuli hajui swala la gas lipoje
Alikuwepo serikalini toka zamani

 

[Barbarosa]

I beg to differ. Kupata mwanga wa hoja yako ni lazima upitie na kuelewa "fiscal terms za model production sharing agreements" Nadhani zipo kwenye website ya TPDC. Cost recovery mara nyingi huwa ni challenge kwa nchi nyingi, but regular auditing ya Serikali either kupitia TPDC au MEM inaondoa uwezekano wa hayo makampuni kutuibia. Kwa sheria mpya ya Petroli sasa mgawanyo wa faida unaweza kufika mpaka asilimia 80 kwa serikali na 20 kwa makampuni. Kiasi cha chini kabisa kupata ni asilimia 50 kwa 50. Kumbuka hapo serikali haijaingia risk yoyote wakati makampuni yameingia in billions of dollars. Hoja ya tungoje miaka 50....hii ni biashara, market haitatungoja...na certainly risk ni kubwa mno kwa serikali kufanya utafutaji.

Ingawaje nina Imani kubwa sana tu na Raisi Magufuli na Serikali yake kwa kuwa imesheheni wataaalamu wakubwa lkn bado nina wasi wasi sana kwenye hili eneo la profit yaani ni pale haya makampuni yatakapopata faida ndiyo na sisi tutaweza kufaidika!

Sasa hapa ni pagumu sana, hawa watu (oil &Gas companies) ni wajanja sana na wanauzoefu na haya mambo kwa muda sana kwa kifupi ni Mafia na kuweza kufaidika ktk kwao ni vigumu sana, kihistoria hakuna mahali ambapo uwekezaji mkubwa kama huu umefanywa na haya makampuni ya kigeni na kuwa na mafanikio, kwanza ukiwabana sana huwa hata wanatumia Serikali zao fund insurgency kama inavyotokea Niger Delta au hata hapa kwetu kama mnakumbuka ishu ya Songo Songo na fujo za gesi haitoki MT, ile yote ilitokea kwa sababu Serikali waliwabana!

Ndiyo maana nchi nyingi zilizofanikiwa kwenye hili eneo huwa wanaanzisha Kampuni zao yaani kama sisi ilipaswa sasa TPDC ndiyo wafanye huu uwekezaji ukiangalia kwa mfano Petrobras (Brazil), Statoil (Norway), BP (Uingereza), British Gas BG, zote hizi ni kama TPDC yaani state owned na mfano mzuri sana ambao ungeweza kutumika kwetu ni nchi ya Trinidad na Tobago ambapo leo hii siyo nchi inayoendelea tena bali ni developed country na Gesi ndiyo imewatoa lkn na wao wanatumia State owned company ya kwao, hata Algeria ambao pia wanaongoza kwa kuuza Gesi nje ni Kampuni inayomilikiwa na Serikali ndiyo wenye hisa kubwa kwenye Gesi na siyo Makampuni ya kigeni sasa sisi hapa nyumbani ukisoma hiyo habari ni kwamba wala siyo ubia na haya makampuni kwa maana yatatakiwa kutulipa royalty ya asilimia 7.5% kwa kifupi ni kama kwenye Madini yetu tu halafu tutagawana faida itakayopatikana na uuuzwaji wa gesi lkn ni lazima wao ndiyo waseme kwamba wanapata faida na biashara ya haya Gesi ina mambo mengi sana!

Ndiyo maana nina wasi wasi sana na kwamba itakuwa tu kama dhahabu yetu kwamba Halmashauri ya Lindi au MT zitalipwa royalty kwa uwepo wa hayo makampuni basi, hivyo ukiniuliza mimi ni bora hata tungeiwezesha TPDC hata kama uwekezaji mdogo lkn si haba maadamu tunaumiliki kwa 100% klk hivi, asilimia 7.5% ni mdogo sana na baada ya miaka 50 ijayo tutarudi hapa na kuwa kama vile kwenye dhahabu imechimbwa lkn leo hii hatuna chochote cha kuonyesha kwamba sisi ni nchi ya tatu Afrika kwa kuuza dhahabu nje!

 

[UncleBen]

Muda mwingine ukituliza kichwa unakua mwanadamu aliyestaharabika

 

[goldensylva]

Ingawaje nina Imani kubwa sana tu na Raisi Magufuli na Serikali yake kwa kuwa imesheheni wataaalamu wakubwa lkn bado nina wasi wasi sana kwenye hili eneo la profit yaani ni pale haya makampuni yatakapopata faida ndiyo na sisi tutaweza kufaidika!

Sasa hapa ni pagumu sana, hawa watu (oil &Gas companies) ni wajanja sana na wanauzoefu na haya mambo kwa muda sana kwa kifupi ni Mafia na kuweza kufaidika ktk kwao ni vigumu sana, kihistoria hakuna mahali ambapo uwekezaji mkubwa kama huu umefanywa na haya makampuni ya kigeni na kuwa na mafanikio, kwanza ukiwabana sana huwa hata wanatumia Serikali zao fund insurgency kama inavyotokea Niger Delta au hata hapa kwetu kama mnakumbuka ishu ya Songo Songo na fujo za gesi haitoki MT, ile yote ilitokea kwa sababu Serikali waliwabana!

Ndiyo maana nchi nyingi zilizofanikiwa kwenye hili eneo huwa wanaanzisha Kampuni zao yaani kama sisi ilipaswa sasa TPDC ndiyo wafanye huu uwekezaji ukiangalia kwa mfano Petrobras (Brazil), Statoil (Norway), BP (Uingereza), British Gas BG, zote hizi ni kama TPDC yaani state owned na mfano mzuri sana ambao ungeweza kutumika kwetu ni nchi ya Trinidad na Tobago ambapo leo hii siyo nchi inayoendelea tena bali ni developed country na Gesi ndiyo imewatoa lkn na wao wanatumia State owned company ya kwao, hata Algeria ambao pia wanaongoza kwa kuuza Gesi nje ni Kampuni inayomilikiwa na Serikali ndiyo wenye hisa kubwa kwenye Gesi na siyo Makampuni ya kigeni sasa sisi hapa nyumbani ukisoma hiyo habari ni kwamba wala siyo ubia na haya makampuni kwa maana yatatakiwa kutulipa royalty ya asilimia 7.5% kwa kifupi ni kama kwenye Madini yetu tu halafu tutagawana faida itakayopatikana na uuuzwaji wa gesi lkn ni lazima wao ndiyo waseme kwamba wanapata faida na biashara ya haya Gesi ina mambo mengi sana!

Ndiyo maana nina wasi wasi sana na kwamba itakuwa tu kama dhahabu yetu kwamba Halmashauri ya Lindi au MT zitalipwa royalty kwa uwepo wa hayo makampuni basi, hivyo ukiniuliza mimi ni bora hata tungeiwezesha TPDC hata kama uwekezaji mdogo lkn si haba maadamu tunaumiliki kwa 100% klk hivi, asilimia 7.5% ni mdogo sana na baada ya miaka 50 ijayo tutarudi hapa na kuwa kama vile kwenye dhahabu imechimbwa lkn leo hii hatuna chochote cha kuonyesha kwamba sisi ni nchi ya tatu Afrika kwa kuuza dhahabu nje!

Wasiwasi wako ni wa kawaida hasa kwa kitu ambacho unakifahamu lakini hujapata nafasi ya kufuatilia kwa karibu. Angalau eneo hili nalielewa kwa kiasi chake. Hoja ya makampuni ya nje kutuibia nimekujibu, auditing will do. Statoil, Petrobras na Shell sio 100% government owned, na zimefanikiwa baada ya kuwekeza kwa muda mrefu. Jiulize middle east-Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar ambao wanaongoza kwa mafuta na gesi kwanini bado hawajaweza kuzifanya National Oil Companies kuwa kama kina Statoil. Usichanganye royalty na government take (royalty inalipwa kwa serikali sio kwa halmashauri, halmashauri inalipwa service levy). Government take inajumuisha royalty, tax(es), profit gas, bonus na mengine mengi. Sasa kwa fiscal terms zetu, total government take inaweza kufikia 80% na minimum ni 50%

 

[Barbarosa]

Wasiwasi wako ni wa kawaida hasa kwa kitu ambacho unakifahamu lakini hujapata nafasi ya kufuatilia kwa karibu. Angalau eneo hili nalielewa kwa kiasi chake. Hoja ya makampuni ya nje kutuibia nimekujibu, auditing will do. Statoil, Petrobras na Shell sio 100% government owned, na zimefanikiwa baada ya kuwekeza kwa muda mrefu. Jiulize middle east-Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar ambao wanaongoza kwa mafuta na gesi kwanini bado hawajaweza kuzifanya National Oil Companies kuwa kama kina Statoil. Usichanganye royalty na government take (royalty inalipwa kwa serikali sio kwa halmashauri, halmashauri inalipwa service levy). Government take inajumuisha royalty, tax(es), profit gas, bonus na mengine mengi. Sasa kwa fiscal terms zetu, total government take inaweza kufikia 80% na minimum ni 50%

Naombea kuwa iwe hivyo kama ulivyosema, kwani nijuavyo mimi nchi zote zilizofanikiwa kwenye hili eneo walianzia kwanza na state owned companies halafu baadaye ndiyo wakatoka na kuanza privatazation huku wakibakiza share kubwa, sasa napata shida kuona jinsi gani TPDC yetu siku moja inaweza kuja kuwa kama National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited ya Trinidad na Tobago au hata Sonatrach ya Algeria ambapo ni Kampuni ya Serikali na yenye utajiri wa kutupwa ni moja kati ya Makampuni makubwa Duniani!

Kwa maana kwenye huu uwekezaji wetu sioni umiliki wa TPDC kwenye gesi yetu uko wapi labda unaweza kunisaidia kwenye hilo kama ukipenda!

 

[goldensylva]

Naombea kuwa iwe hivyo kama ulivyosema, kwani nijuavyo mimi nchi zote zilizofanikiwa kwenye hili eneo walianzia kwanza na state owned companies halafu baadaye ndiyo wakatoka na kuanza privatazation huku wakibakiza share kubwa, sasa napata shida kuona jinsi gani TPDC yetu siku moja inaweza kuja kuwa kama National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited ya Trinidad na Tobago au hata Sonatrach ya Algeria ambapo ni Kampuni ya Serikali na yenye utajiri wa kutupwa ni moja kati ya Makampuni makubwa Duniani!

Kwa maana kwenye huu uwekezaji wetu sioni umiliki wa TPDC kwenye gesi yetu uko wapi labda unaweza kunisaidia kwenye hilo kama ukipenda!

Kwa mujibu wa sheria wa petroli ya mwaka jana, TPDC ana participating interest ya kila mkataba. Sina hakika kama kabla ya sheria mikataba yote iko hivyo. Lakini pia, TPDC wana vitalu viwili reserved just for them to develop. Hilo litawajenga sasa kuwa operators na siyo kama sasa ambapo ni custodian tu ( au regulators ). Tuwape muda...of course na kama political environment itakua favourable kwao.

 

[Barbarosa]

Kwa mujibu wa sheria wa petroli ya mwaka jana, TPDC ana participating interest ya kila mkataba. Sina hakika kama kabla ya sheria mikataba yote iko hivyo. Lakini pia, TPDC wana vitalu viwili reserved just for them to develop. Hilo litawajenga sasa kuwa operators na siyo kama sasa ambapo ni custodian tu ( au regulators ). Tuwape muda...of course na kama political environment itakua favourable kwao.

Powa asante kwa hilo angalau nimepata matumaini kama kuna Vitalu maalumu vimaechwa kwa ajili ya TPDC yetu basi hapo sasa sawa!