Halafu eti tunashangaa ya Zimbabwe!

[Mag3]

Hebu tujikumbushe kidogo Tshs. yetu ilivyoweza kuporomoka kati ya miaka 1985 hadi 1995 na kati ya 1995 na 2005 ikilinganishwa na USD. Halafu linganisha na sasa.

Year....................Official rate of USD in Tshs.......Period in years
1967 - 1974................7.00....................................9.........................
1975 - 1979................8.00....................................5........................
1980 - 1984................8.20 - 15.40.........................5......................
1985 - 1990................17.50 - 194.20......................5..........................
1991 - 1995................196.60 - 574.76....................5..........................
1996 - 2000................579.98 - 803,34....................5..........................
2001 - 2005................876.42 - 1168.79...................5..........................
2006 - todate.............1251.90 - 1,341.60.................3..........................


Mimi si mchumi lakini ninapoangalia hizi figures naingiwa woga kidogo huko tunakoelekea. USD kutoka Tsh 8/- (1985) hadi Tsh. 600/- (1995) si mchezo. Je, wataalamu hizi dalili maana yake nini na tunapata fundisho gani humu.

 

[Augustine Moshi]

Thanks Mag 3 for the research. Do not forget that we were IMFed in 1985. That was when we entered the biggest slide (more than 1,000% depreciation between 1985 and 1990)

 

[Triplets]

Hebu tujikumbushe kidogo Tshs. yetu ilivyoweza kuporomoka kati ya miaka 1985 hadi 1995 na kati ya 1995 na 2005 ikilinganishwa na USD. Halafu linganisha na sasa.

Year....................Official rate of USD in Tshs.......Period in years
1967 - 1974................7.00....................................9.........................
1975 - 1979................8.00....................................5........................
1980 - 1984................8.20 - 15.40.........................5......................
1985 - 1990................17.50 - 194.20......................5..........................
1991 - 1995................196.60 - 574.76....................5..........................
1996 - 2000................579.98 - 803,34....................5..........................
2001 - 2005................876.42 - 1168.79...................5..........................
2006 - todate.............1251.90 - 1,341.60.................3..........................


Mimi si mchumi lakini ninapoangalia hizi figures naingiwa woga kidogo huko tunakoelekea. USD kutoka Tsh 8/- (1985) hadi Tsh. 600/- (1995) si mchezo. Je, wataalamu hizi dalili maana yake nini na tunapata fundisho gani humu.

halafu wanasema sisi tupo kwenye nchi zinazoendelea..sasa hapo tunaendelea kweli? mbona kama vile tunarudi nyuma?

 

[Zungu Pule]

Why do we need a strong currency against US dollar?
are we planning to import more than we export? Well, since we import more than we export, a weak currency is a big hindrance. But if we want to export more, we need to take advantage of our weak currency against US dollar. Chinese always undervalue their currency against US dollar because they want to export more than they import.

 

[Alpha]

Why do we need a strong currency against US dollar?
are we planning to import more than we export? Well, since we import more than we export, a weak currency is a big hindrance. But if we want to export more, we need to take advantage of our weak currency against US dollar. Chinese always undervalue their currency against US dollar because they want to export more than they import.

Agreed we do not need a strong currency but we do need a stable currency.

 

[Bulesi]

One thing is very clear that we do not manage our economic affairs dilligently.Fedha yetu itaimalika pale tutakapoweza kuzalisha bidhaa nyingi ambazo wenzetu wa nje watazihitaji; kwahiyo kuboresha bidhaa zetu ni muhimu. Kuthibiti mfumuko wa bei kutasaidia kuimarisha thamani ya sarafu yetu ; hili haliwezekani kama hatutaweza kuwamaliza mafisadi wa sampuli ya EPA kwani ukwapuaji wao BOT hauendani na kuzalisha mali!! Mafisadi wanachangia kudhoofisha sarafu yetu na hivyo uchumi wetu kwahiyo jakaya kuwakumbatia ni kutufanya wananchi tusipate maisha bora!!

 

[Kituko]

nadhani serikali mpaka sasa haijuhi pakushika ni wapi nadhani tuna Export vitu vingi mno na vya gharama sana( magogo, Gold, gemstones, samaki .etc), mi nadhani hatujuhi thamani halisi ya hivyo vitu, lakini cha kutia wasiwasi ni kwamba sasa hata ukienda kulipia baadhi ya leseni serikalini wanakupa interms of dollars, ukitaka hata vocha ya simu wanaivalue in dollars sasa tutategemeaje hele yetu kuwa stable nini?

 

[Mzeeba]

Mimi si mchumi lakini ninapoangalia hizi figures naingiwa woga kidogo huko tunakoelekea. USD kutoka Tsh 8/- (1985) hadi Tsh. 600/- (1995) si mchezo. Je, wataalamu hizi dalili maana yake nini na tunapata fundisho gani humu.

Naomba uongee na wachumi kwanza kabla ya kufikia hitimisho lako. Hauwezi kuangalia takwimu tu na kutaka kuzilinganisha bila kujua kwa undani zinamaanisha nini na kwa nini ziko hivyo. Mfano kabla ya mwaka 1985 Tanzania tulikuwa tunapanga wenyewe (BOT) sarafu yetu iwe inabadilishwa kwa kiasi gani. "it was a pegged currency". Lakini baada ya kuridhia mabadiliko ya kiuendeshaji wa uchumi chini ya "Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs)" mambo yalibadilika na sarafu yetu ikawa inabadilishwa kutokana na msukumo wa soko. Hivyo takwimu za dhamani ya sarafu yetu kabla ya 1985 na baada ya hapo haziwezi kirahisi tu kulinganishwa. Hata za baada ya mwaka 1985 bado zinahitaji maelezo zaidi kabla ya kuzilinganisha na kufikia hitimisho. Kwa hiyo nashauri kabla ya kuaanza kusema uchumi wetu hivi, au uchumi wetu vile, inabidi sana kuwa makini ni aina gani ya takwimu tunatumia kupima huo mwenendo wa uchumi. sio tu aina gani ya takwimu bali pia nani kazikusanya na ilikuwa kwa madhumuni gani. Maana takwimu zilizo kusanywa kwa ajili ya A ukizitumia kuelezea B mara nyingi mtu hufikia hitimoshi lisilo sahihi.

 

[William J. Malecela]

Naomba uongee na wachumi kwanza kabla ya kufikia hitimisho lako. Hauwezi kuangalia takwimu tu na kutaka kuzilinganisha bila kujua kwa undani zinamaanisha nini na kwa nini ziko hivyo. Mfano kabla ya mwaka 1985 Tanzania tulikuwa tunapanga wenyewe (BOT) sarafu yetu iwe inabadilishwa kwa kiasi gani. "it was a pegged currency". Lakini baada ya kuridhia mabadiliko ya kiuendeshaji wa uchumi chini ya "Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs)" mambo yalibadilika na sarafu yetu ikawa inabadilishwa kutokana na msukumo wa soko. Hivyo takwimu za dhamani ya sarafu yetu kabla ya 1985 na baada ya hapo haziwezi kirahisi tu kulinganishwa. Hata za baada ya mwaka 1985 bado zinahitaji maelezo zaidi kabla ya kuzilinganisha na kufikia hitimisho. Kwa hiyo nashauri kabla ya kuaanza kusema uchumi wetu hivi, au uchumi wetu vile, inabidi sana kuwa makini ni aina gani ya takwimu tunatumia kupima huo mwenendo wa uchumi. sio tu aina gani ya takwimu bali pia nani kazikusanya na ilikuwa kwa madhumuni gani. Maana takwimu zilizo kusanywa kwa ajili ya A ukizitumia kuelezea B mara nyingi mtu hufikia hitimoshi lisilo sahihi.

Mkuu Mzeeba,

- Heshima mbele sana mkuu, mimi sio mchumi lakini hili lako nidarasa zito sana, na ubarikiwe tu maana elimu ya bure saafi, endeleeni kutumwagia hii elimu ya uchumi, duh JF bwana kaaaazi kweli kweeeeeli!

 

[BAK]

Why do we need a strong currency against US dollar?
are we planning to import more than we export? Well, since we import more than we export, a weak currency is a big hindrance. But if we want to export more, we need to take advantage of our weak currency against US dollar. Chinese always undervalue their currency against US dollar because they want to export more than they import.

Kwa Tanzania ni vizuri kuwa na strong currency kwa sababu tunaagiza sana vitu nje kuliko tunavyopeleka. Hili litasaidia kufanya gharama zetu za kuagiza vitu nchi za nje iwe na unafuu mkubwa kuliko ilivyo sasa.

Mwalimu pia katika kupinga mapendekezo ya IMF na WB la kuitaka Tanzania kudevalue currency yetu alisema kwamba kushusha thamani ya shilingi yetu kungetufanya kununua trekta lenye uwezo ule ule ambalo tulikuwa tunanunua kwa equivalent ya magunia 10 ya kahawa baada ya kususha thamani ya shilingi yetu tungelinunua kwa magunia 15 au hata zaidi ya kahawa.

Nimejaribu kuuliza mara nyingi kwa wachumi wa awamu ya pili na ya tatu waliosikiliza matakwa ya WB na IMF ya kushusha shilingi yetu, je uamuzi huo umewanufaisha vipi Watanzania!? Hakuna aliyewahi kunipa jibu la lilinoniridhisha.

 

[Kichuguu]

Naomba uongee na wachumi kwanza kabla ya kufikia hitimisho lako. Hauwezi kuangalia takwimu tu na kutaka kuzilinganisha bila kujua kwa undani zinamaanisha nini na kwa nini ziko hivyo. Mfano kabla ya mwaka 1985 Tanzania tulikuwa tunapanga wenyewe (BOT) sarafu yetu iwe inabadilishwa kwa kiasi gani. "it was a pegged currency". Lakini baada ya kuridhia mabadiliko ya kiuendeshaji wa uchumi chini ya "Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs)" mambo yalibadilika na sarafu yetu ikawa inabadilishwa kutokana na msukumo wa soko. Hivyo takwimu za dhamani ya sarafu yetu kabla ya 1985 na baada ya hapo haziwezi kirahisi tu kulinganishwa. Hata za baada ya mwaka 1985 bado zinahitaji maelezo zaidi kabla ya kuzilinganisha na kufikia hitimisho. Kwa hiyo nashauri kabla ya kuaanza kusema uchumi wetu hivi, au uchumi wetu vile, inabidi sana kuwa makini ni aina gani ya takwimu tunatumia kupima huo mwenendo wa uchumi. sio tu aina gani ya takwimu bali pia nani kazikusanya na ilikuwa kwa madhumuni gani. Maana takwimu zilizo kusanywa kwa ajili ya A ukizitumia kuelezea B mara nyingi mtu hufikia hitimoshi lisilo sahihi.

Hapana, ingawa uko sahihi katika maelezo haya lakini bado hujasaidia kujibu swali la msingi alilouliza mtoa mada. Swali lake la msingi linahusu stability ya sarafu yetu. Hata kama shilingi yetu ilikuwa pegged kwenye dollar wakati ule, baada ya kuiacha i-float inge-stabilize kwenye thamani yake halisi. Lakini badala yake Shilingi hii imekuwa inatelemka kila kukicha, na hili ndilo swali la msingi lililotolewa hapa.

Kumbuka kuwa mara baada ya kuanza kwa shilingi ya Tanzania mwaka 1966, ilikuwa na thamani ya shilingi 5 kwa dola, na Shilingi 20 kwa Paundi ya kiingereza. Shilingi ya Tanzania ilirithi thamani hiyo kutoka kwenye Shilingi ya Afrika ya Mashariki tuliyoachiwa na mkoloni. Mwaka 1966 Shilingi ya Tanzania ilikuwa na thamani sawa na Shilingi ya Kenya; leo hii Shilingi yetu ni sehemu tu ya Shilingi ya Kenya ambazo zilianza kwa pamoja kutokana na Shilingi ile ile ya Afrika ya Mashariki na thamani inabadilika kila siku.

Ili hela yetu iwe imara (stable) tunahitaji kuhakikisha kuwa bei za bidhaa zetu hazipandi kiholela. Kupanda kwa bei za bidhaa husababishwa na vitu vingi sana, ila kwa hapa nchini mwetu bei za bidhaa hupanda kutokana na vitu vitatu vikubwa: (a) kuwepo kwa hela chafu mzungukoni, na (b) utegemezi mkubwa wa bidhaa zilizotengenezwa nje, na (c) serikali kuwa na bajeti isyojitosheleza. Tukiondoa rushwa na kuwa na bajeti inayojitosheleza, ambayo ndiyo mambo yanayotuletea hela chafu halafu tukakuza uzalishaji wa bidhaa zetu wenyewe, utaona pesa yetu inaimarika tena kwa haraka sana. Vinginevyo, itabidi watu wetu wasinunue bidhaa za madukani na kuishi maisha duni ili wauzaji wasiagize biadhaa nyingi na hivyo kushindwa kubadili bei zao (kama ilivyokuwa miaka michache iliyopita.)

 

[Mag3]

Naomba uongee na wachumi kwanza kabla ya kufikia hitimisho lako. .

Mkuu naona umekurupuka, mimi sijafikia hitimisho - nimeonyesha tu kushangazwa na hiyo hali na hivyo kuuliza swali. Linalotakiwa ni jibu la kuridhisha kama unalo, asante.

Hapana, ingawa uko sahihi katika maelezo haya lakini bado hujasaidia kujibu swali la msingi alilouliza mtoa mada. Swali lake la msingi linahusu stability ya sarafu yetu. Hata kama shilingi yetu ilikuwa pegged kwenye dollar wakati ule, baada ya kuiacha i-float inge-stabilize kwenye thamani yake halisi. Lakini badala yake Shilingi hii imekuwa inatelemka kila kukicha, na hili ndilo swali la msingi lililotolewa hapa.

Kumbuka kuwa mara baada ya kuanza kwa shilingi ya Tanzania mwaka 1966, ilikuwa na thamani ya shilingi 5 kwa dola, na Shilingi 20 kwa Paundi ya kiingereza. Shilingi ya Tanzania ilirithi thamani hiyo kutoka kwenye Shilingi ya Afrika ya Mashariki tuliyoachiwa na mkoloni. Mwaka 1966 Shilingi ya Tanzania ilikuwa na thamani sawa na Shilingi ya Kenya; leo hii Shilingi yetu ni sehemu tu ya Shilingi ya Kenya ambazo zilianza kwa pamoja kutokana na Shilingi ile ile ya Afrika ya Mashariki na thamani inabadilika kila siku.

Ili hela yetu iwe imara (stable) tunahitaji kuhakikisha kuwa bei za bidhaa zetu hazipandi kiholela. Kupanda kwa bei za bidhaa husababishwa na vitu vingi sana, ila kwa hapa nchini mwetu bei za bidhaa hupanda kutokana na vitu vitatu vikubwa: (a) kuwepo kwa hela chafu mzungukoni, na (b) utegemezi mkubwa wa bidhaa zilizotengenezwa nje, na (c) serikali kuwa na bajeti isyojitosheleza. Tukiondoa rushwa ambayo na kuwa na bajeti inayojitosheleza, ambayo ndiyo mambo yanayotuletea hela chafu halafu tukakuza uzalishaji wa bidhaa zetu wenyewe, utaona pesa yetu inaimarika tena kwa haraka sana. Vinginevyo, itabidi watu wetu wasinunue bidhaa za madukani na kuishi maisha duni ili wauzaji wasiagize biadhaa nyingi na hivyo kushindwa kubadili bei zao.

Asante Mkuu Kichuguu, tuendelee........

 

[Mag3]

Year....................Official rate of USD in Tshs.......Period in years .... Kenya est.
1967 - 1974................7.00....................................9............. 7.00......8.00 - 50.00..........
1975 - 1979................8.00....................................5............. 8.00...........
1980 - 1984................8.20 - 15.40.........................5................8.00 - 10.00
1985 - 1990................17.50 - 194.20......................5................10.00 - 60.00
1991 - 1995................196.60 - 574.76....................5.................61.00 - 51.00.
1996 - 2000................579.98 - 803,34....................5................61.00 - 72.00...........
2001 - 2005................876.42 - 1168.79...................5...............70.00 - 75.00..........
2006 - todate.............1251.90 - 1,341.60.................3...............72.00 - 80.00........

Shilingi ya Kenya ambayo mwanzoni wa 1980 ilikuwa na thamani sawa na ya kwetu imeweza kuuzwa kwa wastani wa Ksh. 70.00 kwa dola kwa miaka karibu ya ishirini. Hivi Kenya ambayo imepitia misukosuko mingi tangia ipate uhuru wake imewezaje kui'stabilize' shilingi yake na kulinda heshima ya sarafu yake ? ( kuna wakati kwenye miaka ya 1990, dola iliposhuka thamani, shilingi yao iliweza kuuzwa 40.00 tu kwa dola wakati huo ya kwetu ikiwa 700.00 kwa dola !!). Sisi tunaojivunia amani, utulivu na mshikamano tumeshindwa vipi na kwa sababu gani - watu, ardhi, siasa safi au uongozi bora ? Jibu jipe mwenyewe.

 

[William J. Malecela]

- Eti wakuu kuna mahali nimesikia jana kua sasa US dola $ 1.50 ni sawa na Zimbabwe dola Billioni 50, ambapo ni juzi tu wamefungua rasmi noti yao mpya ya Billioni 50?

I mean hii ni kweli au April Fool?

Zimbabwe brings in new currency to tackle inflation crisisLarry Elliott, economics editor

The Guardian, Monday 13, Jan 2009
Article history

People in Zimbabwe will tomorrow start to use a new currency introduced by the central bank to halt the African country's runaway increase in the cost of living.

Gideon Gono, the central bank governor, said he was no longer prepared to print notes of ever higher denominations. "Ten billion dollars today, will as from Jan 13 be revalued to one zimdollar dollar," he said earlier this week. The move follows an increase in Zimbabwean inflation to 2.2m%, and represents an attempt to get to grips with the economic crisis in what was once one of sub-Saharan Africa's richest countries. The $100bn note came into circulation only 10 days ago.

Gono's move follow the example of the president of the Reichsbank in the 1920s, Hjalmar Schacht, who helped end Weimar Germany's financial crisis by striking nine zeros from the currency and turning 10bn old marks into one new rentenmark.

 

[mmaroroi]

Lakini vilevile biashara za ujanja ujanja nje ya nchi inaweza kuwa sababu kwa kuwa takwimu haziwi sahihi.Ufisadi pia kama watu wanakuwa na mabilioni ya fedha ndani zikiingia sokoni BOT haitajua hivyo zinasababisha mfumuko wa bei.

 

[Nyambala]

- Eti wakuu kuna mahali nimesikia jana kua sasa US dola $ 1.50 ni sawa na Zimbabwe dola Billioni 50, ambapo ni juzi tu wamefungua rasmi noti yao mpya ya Billioni 50?

I mean hii ni kweli au April Fool?

Zimbabwe brings in new currency to tackle inflation crisisLarry Elliott, economics editor

The Guardian, Monday 13, Jan 2009
Article history

People in Zimbabwe will tomorrow start to use a new currency introduced by the central bank to halt the African country's runaway increase in the cost of living.

Gideon Gono, the central bank governor, said he was no longer prepared to print notes of ever higher denominations. "Ten billion dollars today, will as from Jan 13 be revalued to one zimdollar dollar," he said earlier this week. The move follows an increase in Zimbabwean inflation to 2.2m%, and represents an attempt to get to grips with the economic crisis in what was once one of sub-Saharan Africa's richest countries. The $100bn note came into circulation only 10 days ago.

Gono's move follow the example of the president of the Reichsbank in the 1920s, Hjalmar Schacht, who helped end Weimar Germany's financial crisis by striking nine zeros from the currency and turning 10bn old marks into one new rentenmark.

HARARE - Zimbabwe's central bank has introduced new 100 trillion Zimbabwe
dollar notes, in the latest sign of runaway inflation officially estimated
at 231 million percent as of last July but which independent analysts say
could be anything in the trillions.

The $100 trillion note - the highest in a new range that includes new 10, 20
and 50 trillion dollar notes - is enough to buy only about six loaves of
bread.

"In a move meant to ensure that the public access their money from banks,
the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has introduced a new family of notes,"
The RBZ said. The notes will be gradually introduced into the market with
effect from Friday.

With its value falling faster than any other currency on earth, the Zimbabwe
dollar is nearly worthless, and both consumers and traders are increasingly
shunning the currency in favour of the South African rand or the United
States dollar.

A collapsed currency is the most visible sign of Zimbabwe's deepening
economic and humanitarian crisis that is also seen in acute shortages of
food and basic commodities, amid outbreaks of killer diseases such as
cholera and anthrax.

A September power-sharing agreement meant to ease the political situation
and allow the country to focus on tackling the economic meltdown remains
deadlocked as President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai bicker over control of key posts in a unity government outlined
under the deal. - ZimOnline