Duru za Siasa: Marekani (U.S) Chini ya Donald J. Trump

[Nguruvi3]

Usikwepe post yako niliyojibu; ulizungumzia walioko nje ya marekani, siyo wamarekani wenyewe au wapiga kura wa marekani. Ninajua kuwa Marekani imegawanyika kiitikadi 47%:47%:6% kwa hiyo hata kwa wamamerakani wenyewe huwezi kusema wengi wanamshabikia hata kama haibadilishi matokeo lakini siyo warrant ya kujenerealize kuwa wengi wanamshabikia. Honestly!

Trump ana sura nyingi na huwachanganya watu,ndani na nje ya US
Ni kiongozi anayejua kutumia ''madhaifu' katika kujiimarisha , na ndivyo alivyopanda ngazi za siasa

Kwa watu wa ndani, kuna kundi moja linalogawanyika mara mbili, watu wa vijijini. Hawa, kwanza uelewa wao ni mdogo (non college grad). Ni watu wanaoamini katika ubaguzi na huingalia Marekani kwa jicho la Mabwana na Watwana

Ni hao walioaminisha na Trump kwamba Obama si Raia wa Marekani hadi leo licha ya kila ushahidi wanamwamini tu

Trump anatumia udhaifu wa kundi hili kuwaaminisha 'uongo' akiurudia mara nyingi na huonekana ukweli
Ametumia udhaifu kuchomeka mbegu za kibaguzi kama anavyofanya sasa hivi

Kundi jingine ni lile linaloamini uongo kwasababu haliwezi kujishughulisha kutafuta ukweli
Kundi hili linajumuisha hata wasomi, watu wa mijini lakini zaidi ya hapo ' Watu wa mataifa ya nje kama Tanzania''

Mfano, Trump analiaminisha kundi hili kuwa ametengeneza uchumi bora haujawahi kutokea.
1. Kwa rekodi zilizopo Trump hakutengeneza uchumi, aliyetengeneza ni Obama
Obama aliingia unemployment ikiwa katika silimia kati ya 9-14 kutegemea eneo
Alipoondoka ilifikia asilimia takribani 4.5. Ndivyo takwimu nyingine zote zinavyoonyesha hata zile za masoko

Trump anasema ametengeneza unemployment ikafikia 3.1, swali la kujiuliza kutoka wapi? na kwa wakati gani?

2. Trump anasema ametengeneza ajira kuliko Obama. Ukitazama takwimu hakuna eneo ambalo amefanya vizuri kuliko nyakati za Obama. Kinachotokea ni mwendelezo wa mieizi 74 aliyoacha Obama ya kukua kwa uchumi

3. Siasa za kimataifa ndiyo basi tena maana ile hadhi ya Marekani imefifia
Orodha ya mambo ni mengi ambayo anaoboronga ikiwemo institutions , utawala wa sheria n.k ni ndefu

Kitu kimoja alichofanikiwa, ni kusema uongo, kuurudia hadi watu wanaamini kama ndio ukweli.

Sasa hali hiyo ikifika kwa wananchi wasiojishughulisha kama Watanzania, Trump ni lulu kwasababu kila asemacho ni ukweli. Hapa ndipo unaona watu hao wakishabikia tu, lakini waulize ni kwa nini! Hawana hoja

Kuna uzi mmoja ulianzishwa, wachangiaji wakimsifu Trump kwa kufanya mambo mazuri kwa weusi ''black' wa Marekani. Niliuliza tu ni kwa yapi mazuri? Hakuna aliyetoa jibu na uzi ukafa hapo hapo.

Hii ni kwasababu watu walisikia tu Trump akisema lakini hawana hoja za kutetea hoja zao na wala hawajishughulishi kutafuta ukweli au kutafakari kwa uwezo wa kawaida tu, wanameza

 

[Mlenge]

...
Watu kama Trump ni lazima watokee kama alivyotokea Hitler ...

Godwin's Law.
When a Hitler comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison loses whatever debate is in progress.

...
Mlenge, inawezekana mnakasha huu unakuzidi kimo ...ukikua kuna siku utajua kwa nni iliitwa hivyo.

Projection.
A bully may project their own feelings of vulnerability onto the target.

 

[Mag3]

Godwin's Law.
When a Hitler comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison loses whatever debate is in progress.

Godwin’s law is the facetious proposition that the longer any online conversation (or argument) goes on, the greater the likelihood that something will be compared to Hitler. Godwin’s law is an update of the logical fallacy reductio ad Hitlerum, modern Latin for “reduction to Hitler” and a take on reductio ad absurdum.

Now let's see...

Here’s how Trump and Hitler are alike...

As a retired USAF officer raised in the 1940s Nazi occupied Netherlands, I believe I am uniquely qualified to assert that President Trump and Adolf Hitler share similar ideologies and use similar tactics for their own personal gain.

In order to solidify power, Hitler abolished the judiciary in Germany. President Trump is in the process of stacking the federal courts (including the Supreme Court) with judges who share his ideology. The same effect results — no justice.

Hitler had his concentration camps with Reinhard Heydrich to oversee them. Trump has his detention centers with Stephen Miller in charge. Same effect.

Hitler was a racist. Jews, gypsies, Slavs, homosexuals and the afflicted were sent to the camps. Trump’s ban on Muslims, his tirade against four congresswomen of color who stood up to him, his rhetoric regarding Baltimore’s black people — asserting that they are somehow subhuman — clearly brand him as a white supremacist racist.

Both Hitler and Trump demanded personal loyalty instead of loyalty to country and constitution.
The similarities are staggering and ominous. I draw these parallels because I was there then and I am here now, and I need to do what I can to prevent a repeat of the horrors of the past.

Frederik Weller, Sandy...

Mlenge, if for whatever reason you can't open up your eyes and see what's taking place in the land of the free and the brave, you got yourself another think coming.

Need I say more?
​

Kosa si kosa ila kurudia kosa na Wamarekani hawawezi kurudia kosa walilolifanya 2016!

Projection.
A bully may project their own feelings of vulnerability onto the target.

Wow, the cheek! Nafikiri tatizo lako kubwa ni kudhani unajua kumbe hujui. The world is moving dude and yesterdays can never be brought back. Just wait until the world's sanctuary nation raises its ugly head early in November this year, the rest of mankind will get the lesson and authoritarianism in all its forms, shapes and abodes shall face the greatest challenge it has ever encountered.

​

 

[Mlenge]

.. Godwin’s law is an update of the logical fallacy reductio ad Hitlerum

Umepigia mstari kwamba maandishi yako, TL;DR, ni fallacious.

Nafikiri tatizo lako kubwa ni kudhani unajua kumbe hujui...

Another fallacious text. Ad hominem.

Your texts appear to be disgraceful to this forum of Great Thinkers. In case you do not understand, try to proposition whatever you like, without personal attacks to other contributors.

 

[Kichuguu]

Godwin's Law.
When a Hitler comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison loses whatever debate is in progress.





Projection.
A bully may project their own feelings of vulnerability onto the target.

(1) Call it Godwin's conjecture

(2) Trump is a strong projector of his vurnelability

 

[Mlenge]

(1) Call it Godwin's conjecture

(2) Trump is a strong projector of his vurnelability

(1) "Trump is the new Hitler".

One could argue: Trump is Beelzebub, The Devil himself. Comparing Trump to Hitler is angelication of Trump... and you are glorifying Trump by talking in lighter terms about him when you compare him to Hitler. But how is calling someone Hitler or Shetani showing prowess of "Great Minds" discussing ideas?


For those of us outside United States, we shall continue to enjoy the USA political contests, same way we enjoy Yanga vs Simba rivalry. We make no attempt to identify with any USA political side. From this direction of the Atlantic pond, such a thing would be an exercise in futility. Tusichopenda ni kuona some tin-pot dictator-wannabes humu wanaanza kushambulia mtu binafsi kwa vile tu maoni ya mwingine yametukia kupishana na aliyonayo.

(2) Trump might as well be projecting his vulnerabilities. But unless he posts here as Mag3 , he is not the one trying elementary-school-type bullying tacticts in this discussion forum.

Let us have civil discussions.

 

[Mag3]

Trump is a strong projector of his vulnerability

The only obstacles standing between Trump and Hilter are the principles of Consent, Limits, Balance, and Participation. Given the chance Trump would have destroyed these without batting an eyelid. Fortunately the American constitution closed all doors to wannabe Hitlers and there is no way Trump can ever succeed in his pathological dreams. Instead he will go down in history as the memorable (greatest) stain in the experiment's journey to utu (uhuru, haki na usawa) without bounds.

 

[Mag3]

For those of us outside United States, we shall continue to enjoy the USA political contests, same way we enjoy Yanga vs Simba rivalry. We make no attempt to identify with any USA political side. From this direction of the Atlantic pond, such a thing would be an exercise in futility.

You are living in a bubble. Part of learning about the world is learning about how you learn. To live in a bubble means you’re refusing to update your information pipelines for a changing world and your changing role in it.
Have you already forgotten all bout your Godwin's Law gibberish? And now from that to Yanga vs Simba balderdash? Are you for real Mlenge ?

Tusichopenda ni kuona some tin-pot dictator-wannabes humu wanaanza kushambulia mtu binafsi kwa vile tu maoni ya mwingine yametukia kupishana na aliyonayo.

Kweli wewe ni Mtanzania anayeishi Tanzania? Unajua nini kuhusu kupishana kwa maoni nchini Tanzania. Halafu hapa unalialia eti Mag3 ni tin-pot dictator-wannabe, really? Would you recognize dictatorship if it hit you in the face? No wonder you cant fathom Trump being compared to Hitler. Hii ndio sababu ya kukuambia mnakasha huu unakuzidi kimo and how right I was...eti siasa ya Marekani inashushwa kwenye level ya Simba vs Yanga, my foot!

 

[Mlenge]

You are living in a bubble. Part of learning about the world is learning about how you learn. To live in a bubble means you’re refusing to update your information pipelines for a changing world and your changing role in it.
Have you already forgotten all bout your Godwin's Law gibberish? And now from that to Yanga vs Simba balderdash? Are you for real Mlenge ?
Kweli wewe ni Mtanzania anayeishi Tanzania? Unajua nini kuhusu kupishana kwa maoni nchini Tanzania. Halafu hapa unalialia eti Mag3 ni tin-pot dictator-wannabe, really? Would you recognize dictatorship if it hit you in the face? No wonder you cant fathom Trump being compared to Hitler. Hii ndio sababu ya kukuambia mnakasha huu unakuzidi kimo and how right I was...eti siasa ya Marekani inashushwa kwenye level ya Simba vs Yanga, my foot!

Of course nataka Joe Biden awe Rais. Au Nataka Trump aendelee kuwa Rais. No. Nataka Jacob Hornberger ndio awe Rais. Really ingenoga Hillary Clinton arudie kugombea. How does that add to the debate of great thinkers? Just disclosure of some wishes of some non-voter. Does it add to the ideas or even events to discuss? Not at all.

So take-off from your high-horse. Sisi tulio tulioko Tanzania, tunaweza pia kujadili mada kuhusu Marekani mliko ninyi. Kuwapo Tanzania haitufanyi tuwe na mawazo kimo kifupi wala wewe kwa vile uko Marekani au uliwahi kufika Marekani haikufanyi uwe na mawazo kimo kirefu. Na wala hatutaomba kibali kwako kuchangia mawazo.

 

[Mag3]

How does that add to the debate of great thinkers? Just disclosure of some wishes of some non-voter. Does it add to the ideas or even events to discuss? Not at all.

So take-off from your high-horse. Sisi tulio tulioko Tanzania, tunaweza pia kujadili mada kuhusu Marekani mliko ninyi. Kuwapo Tanzania haitufanyi tuwe na mawazo kimo kifupi wala wewe kwa vile uko Marekani au uliwahi kufika Marekani haikufanyi uwe na mawazo kimo kirefu. Na wala hatutaomba kibali kwako kuchangia mawazo.

See what I mean? You sure are living in a bubble. You know why? It’s so easy to live in your own bubble. To ridicule ideas that aren’t in your echo chamber. To give zero latitude to concepts that are foreign to you.

Now let me tell you something... living in your own bubble is boring. Nobody challenges you; nobody disagrees with you; nobody ever asks you to explain why you think the way you do. Everything is pleasant — on the surface. It may seem like nirvana. But it’s artificial. It’s shallow. It’s born of fear. Too bad!

Sorry my friend, you can keep your bubble. I don't have to live in there to know that the US could be my home and why not! It is probably the home of my great great grandfather...and now I remember, it is also a sanctuary nation, the land of choice when necessity dictates but now a wannabe tyrant is trying to destroy all that. I care, everybody cares, the whole world cares except a certain Mlenge.

 

[Mlenge]

...

Attention-seeking! Nothing to see here. Moving on.

 

[Mag3]

Attention-seeking! Nothing to see here. Moving on.

Congratulations, for once and may be in your entire life, good decision! And don't say I didn't warn you...if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen! And I was just beginning, so I'll let you off with this quote;

The difference between school and life?
In school, you're taught a lesson and then given a test.
In life, you're given a test that teaches you a lesson.
​

Bye Hon. Mlenge !

 

[Mlenge]

Katika mazingira haya ya covid19 kampeni za uchaguzi zitafanyika vipi? Kutakuwa na mikutano ya hadhara? Kutakuwa na midahalo baina yao?

Kwenye uchaguzi ujao wa Marekani, yaelekea Trump atashinda tena. Naazima na kuvitohoa baadhi ya vigezo vya Lichtman na kuongezeapo vingine vinavyoashiria nani atashinda:

1. Trump ni Rais aliyeko madarakani.

2. Sanders dhidi ya wakuu wa Demokrati ulikuwa ni mtifuano mkali. Washabiki wa Sanders wengi bado wamenuna.

3. Vurugu za kijamii zimekuwa kubwa zaidi maeneo ambayo Demokrati ndio chama-tawala.

4. Suala la korona limekuwa la kisiasa -- lockdown, ulazima kuvaa barakoa na kura za kuposti yamekuwa ni masuala yanayoibua wengi kujiunga na siasa.

5. Trump ni karismatiki zaidi ya Biden.

6. Chama tawala kimeshinda chaguzi ndogo majimbo ambayo haikuwahi kushinda kwa miongo kadhaa.

7. Sintofahamu ya masuala ya mahusiano baina ya weusi na weupe itawasogeza mbali zaidi baadhi ya watu kwenye skeli za uhafidhina.

8. Vyombo vya habari vikuu vinampigia chapuo Biden. Hivyo wapiga kura wa Biden wengi hawataenda kupiga kura wakiona kwa nini kujisumbua wakati matokeo ni wazi kabisa Biden ni mshindi.

9. Bradley-Effect of humongous proportion: Wapiga kura wengi wa Trump hawathubutu kukiri wazi nia yao ya kumpigia kura Trump, na hivyo kuishia kusema urongo kwenye kura za maoni kwamba watampigia kura Biden.

10. Trump ni un-PC, who fights his opponents not with kid-gloves: He resonates with the silent majority across political spectrum in some issues.


ONYO: Kuangalia nani anaweza kuwa mshindi kwenye uchaguzi ujao Marekani ≠ Kupenda nani awe mshindi kwenye uchaguzi ujao Marekani.

 

[Mag3]

Kwenye uchaguzi ujao wa Marekani, yaelekea Trump atashinda tena. Naazima na kuvitohoa baadhi ya vigezo vya Lichtman na kuongezeapo vingine vinavyoashiria nani atashinda:

Ha ha haa! Mtanzania halisi katika ubora wake. Anaangalia kila kitu kwa macho ya Kitanzania. Hajui gharama ya uhuru, hajui gharama ya haki, hajui gharama za usawa...anachojua tu ana nyundo na kazi ya nyundo ni moja tu, kushindilia msumari. Kwa namna fulani kwa Mtanzania halisi ushindi wa mtu kama Trump utatumika kuhalalisha mapungufu ya status quo.

All that is the result of living in a bubble. Hon. Mlenge, Marekani ni nchi tofauti. Walimwaga damu kupigania uhuru, walimwaga damu kupigania haki na walimwaga damu kupigania usawa. Gharama za vita hivyo ni ghali na kwa sababu hiyo mafanikio yake lazima yaendelee kulindwa dhidi ya mizuka kama Trump. Trump was a mistake and a mistake is corrected.

Kosa si kosa ila kurudia kosa. Adui mkubwa kuliko maadui wote ni ujinga. Gharama ya ujinga si haba na haina kipimo. Mtu mwenye hekima hujifunza kutokana na makosa yake. Kushindwa njiani kunatufundisha kuwa tulifanya makosa kwa kufuata njia isiyo sahihi na hivyo lazima kujirekebisha. Wenye hekima hawarudii kosa kwani kila kosa ni mwalimu.

 

[Nguruvi3]

"Mlenge, post: 35853432, member: 450"]Kwenye uchaguzi ujao wa Marekani, yaelekea Trump atashinda tena. Naazima na kuvitohoa baadhi ya vigezo vya Lichtman na kuongezeapo vingine vinavyoashiria nani atashinda:

Tuangalie vigezo

1. Trump ni Rais aliyeko madarakani.

Kuwa incumbent kuna 'advantage na disadvantage'
Kura zinapigwa kama referendum. Ikiwa yapo mema hiyo ni advantage. Mfano, wakati uchumi na ajira zikiwa nzuri Trump alitumia kama kigezo cha mafanikio. Kwasasa uchumi na ajira vinatumika dhidi yake.
Corona ni tatizo atakalohukumiwa nalo. Rais aliyeko madarakani kwa nchi kama Marekani si sawa na Tanzania. Kwa Marekani itategemea wakati na matukio.

2. Sanders dhidi ya wakuu wa Demokrati ulikuwa ni mtifuano mkali. Washabiki wa Sanders wengi bado wamenuna.

Imebainika waliokuwa wafuasi wa Sanders ni wale ''Russia' waliotumika wakati wa Hillary Clinton kuchochea mtifuano ndani ya Dems.Jambo hilo lilifanikiwa sana kwani watu wengi hawakwenda kupiga kura. Katika uchaguzi 'primary' iliyokwisha Sanders alikubali kuingiliwa na Russsia.Dems wamelijua hili mapema. Kama unafuatilia hata Trump alionyesha 'sympathy' kwa Sanders kama ilivyokuwa 2016.Unalijua kwanini?

3. Vurugu za kijamii zimekuwa kubwa zaidi maeneo ambayo Demokrati ndio chama-tawala.

Hili lina sehemu mbili. Kwamba, kuna baadhi ya ''white' wanakereka na kupunguza wigokwa Dems, lakini pia lina hamasisha 'galvanize' colored kupiga kura. Mwaka 2016 takribani nusu ya colored people haikupiga kura, hata maeneo aliyoshinda Trump kwa razor margin sababu ilikuwa hiyo.

4. Suala la korona limekuwa la kisiasa -- lockdown, ulazima kuvaa barakoa na kura za kuposti yamekuwa ni masuala yanayoibua wengi kujiunga na siasa.

Hili ni mwiba kwa Trump in a way. Kueleza kwanini watu 126,000 na huenda wakawa 200K wakati huo wamefariki kwa Taifa kama US ni ngumu sana. The second wave imeanza tena na lockdown ipo pale pale. Barakoa (mask) halina uzito wa aina yoyote ukilinganisha na hoja za idadi ya vifo, kudorora uchumi na kupoteza ajira

5. Trump ni karismatiki zaidi ya Biden.

Yes ni Charismatic hasa kwa base yake. Ile 38% haiwezi kumwacha hata itokee nini na hii ni nguvu kubwa sana kwa Trump. Kwa Biden, ni Charismatic kwa namna nyingine tofauti na Trump. Biden ni miongoni mwa wagombea ambao Trump hakutaka kupambanishwa nao hata kidogo.
Zengwe la Ukraine ilikuwa kumuondoa Biden na sasa AG Barr anaunda zengwe jingine . Kinachoonekana pamoja kutupa supageti ukutani hainekani kama kuna inayo nata. Hili nalo linaongeza frustrations kwa Trump

6. Chama tawala kimeshinda chaguzi ndogo majimbo ambayo haikuwahi kushinda kwa miongo kadhaa.

Mid term elections Republicans walipoteza majimbo mengi kuliko ilivyowahi kutokea tangu mwaka 1974.Majimbo waliyopoteza mengine ni ngome ya Republicans na kupeleka kupoteza House.
Kikubwa zaidi ni kuwa jimbo kama Texas, Ted Cruz alitishiwa. State kama Georgia nani alidhani inaweza kuwa katika hati hati ya Ugavana au useneta? Kwasasa Florida, Colarado, Texas, Wisconsin, Pen state, Ohio zinaelekea kuwa swing states. Hizo kama Ohio ni ngome ya GOP. Ingawa Trump alishinda 'Rust Belt states'' swali la kujiuliza je bado ana ushawishi aliokuwa nao? Katika unemployment iliyopo, kupungua kwa independents na timbwili la colored people, je, ataweza ku maintain ile razor margin akama ilillvyokuwa Wisconsin?

7. Sintofahamu ya masuala ya mahusiano baina ya weusi na weupe itawasogeza mbali zaidi baadhi ya watu kwenye skeli za uhafidhina.

conservatives ni kundi la Trump na haitegemewi vinginevyo. Sintofahamu ya weuse na weupe ni 'double edged sword' kwa Democrats. Wataongeza idadi ya weusi na colored, lakini pia watapoteza weupe watakaodhani kuna marginalization. Kitendo cha BLM kutaka ''defund'' ya Police na masharti kadhaa haisaidii Dems. Ni kupunguza sehemu ya Weupe wanayoihitaji.

8. Vyombo vya habari vikuu vinampigia chapuo Biden. Hivyo wapiga kura wa Biden wengi hawataenda kupiga kura wakiona kwa nini kujisumbua wakati matokeo ni wazi kabisa Biden ni mshindi

.Kwa Marekani hakuna vyombo vikuu, kuna vyombo vyenye ufungano, ima mrengo wa kulia wa kihafidhina au kushoto wa Kiliberali. Somo la Hillary Clinton limeeleweka kwa Dems kuhusu kupiga kura. Ungefuatilia kura za Atlanta na Kentucky za Primaries ungeona utofauti.

9. Bradley-Effect of humongous proportion: Wapiga kura wengi wa Trump hawathubutu kukiri wazi nia yao ya kumpigia kura Trump, na hivyo kuishia kusema urongo kwenye kura za maoni kwamba watampigia kura Biden.

Inawezekana, hili pia hufanyiwa kazi na internal polling za vyama, sijui hali ikoje huko

10. Trump ni un-PC, who fights his opponents

not with kid-gloves: He resonates with the silent majority across political spectrum in some issues.

Mhh hapa ungesema '' conservatives' ungeeleweka zaidi. Ukisema majority tutarudi kwenye popular vote ambapo Trump alikuwa nyuma ya Hillary kwa 3 Million votes.
Silent majority ni ipi unayoongelea? na kwa kigezo gani?Kwa Trump silent majority ni ' race' ingawa hasemi na kwa polls zilivyo, sasa ameacha uchumi, vita n.k. bali silent majority.

 

[Mlenge]

Tuangalie vigezo

Kuwa incumbent kuna 'advantage na disadvantage'

True. Lakini, hicho ni kigezo nambari moja cha Lichtman. Inaonyesha kina mashiko zaidi kuliko hasara.


Kura zinapigwa kama referendum. Ikiwa yapo mema hiyo ni advantage. Mfano, wakati uchumi na ajira zikiwa nzuri Trump alitumia kama kigezo cha mafanikio. Kwasasa uchumi na ajira vinatumika dhidi yake.

Kura nyingi za maoni 2016 zilionyesha ushindi wa kishindo dhidi ya Trump. Na mpaka sasa maswali bado yanaulizwa ilikuwaje hawakuona ushindi wa Trump.

Corona ni tatizo atakalohukumiwa nalo. Rais aliyeko madarakani kwa nchi kama Marekani si sawa na Tanzania.
Kwenye korona, mamlaka mengi yako kwa magavana. Ndio maana Trump anawachonganisha wapiga kura vs magavana ili ghadhabu za lockdown, mask, reopening of economy, etc, viwe deflected.
...

Silent majority ni ipi unayoongelea? na kwa kigezo gani?Kwa Trump silent majority ni ' race' ingawa hasemi na kwa polls zilivyo, sasa ameacha uchumi, vita n.k. bali silent majority.
A republican is just a democrat who has been mugged... inasemekana hivyo. Kwa hiyo disenfranchisement ya base za democrats hasa kuhusiana na protests/riots, inaweza kuongeza idadi ya wapiga kura kwa Trump kwa namna isivyotarajiwa.


Jambo muhimu ni kwamba uchaguzi wa Marekani 2020, siyo foregone conclusion, kwamba Trump atashindwa, kama ambavyo mtu anaweza kudhani kwa kuangalia meseji za foramu hii na kwa kusikiliza vyombo mashuhuri vya habari.

 

[Nguruvi3]

"Mlenge, post: 35856371, member: 450"]
Kuwa incumbent kuna 'advantage na disadvantage'
True. Lakini, hicho ni kigezo nambari moja cha Lichtman. Inaonyesha kina mashiko zaidi kuliko hasara.

Hapana, hapa kuna misconceptions. Kama ni kigezo cha kwanza, maana yake ni kigezo muhimu kwa mujibu wako na Litchman. Hii haina maana kina mashiko kuliko hasara, kina maana kwamba ikiwa kuna advantage basi itamnufaisha incumbent sana, lakini kama kuna disadvantage itamuathiri sana. Kwa hiyo kigezo kimepewa nambari moja kwa ''sensitivity' yake na si kwasababu ya 'advantage'

Kura zinapigwa kama referendum. Ikiwa yapo mema hiyo ni advantage. Mfano, wakati uchumi na ajira zikiwa nzuri Trump alitumia kama kigezo cha mafanikio. Kwasasa uchumi na ajira vinatumika dhidi yake.

Kura nyingi za maoni 2016 zilionyesha ushindi wa kishindo dhidi ya Trump. Na mpaka sasa maswali bado yanaulizwa ilikuwaje hawakuona ushindi wa Trump.

Again hapa kuna kutoelewa hoja yangu (maandishi meusi) . Nilichosema ni kuwa ukiwa Rais anayetawala (incumbent) kura zinazopigwa kwako wakati wa uchaguzi ni 'referendum' ya yale uliyofanya wakati wa kipindi chako.
Hakuna mahali nimeongelea kura za maoni hata kidogo.

Corona ni tatizo atakalohukumiwa nalo. Rais aliyeko madarakani kwa nchi kama Marekani si sawa na Tanzania.

Kwenye korona, mamlaka mengi yako kwa magavana. Ndio maana Trump anawachonganisha wapiga kura vs magavana ili ghadhabu za lockdown, mask, reopening of economy, etc, viwe deflected.

Rais wa Marekani ni kiongozi wa Federal gov. Magavana wana mamlaka zao lakini suala linaloambatana na usalama wa Taifa lipo chini ya White House.
Briefing za Corona zilifanyika WH siyo kwa magavana.
Rais Trump analaumiwa kwa kutofanyia kazi intelligence report ambazo Magavana hawapewi wala hawazioni.

Obama hakuacha Ebola kwa Magavana, ali intervene ndiyo maana anapewa sifa kwa hilo
Ilipoingia HN1 alikabiliana nayo kwa kushirikiana na Magavana kwasababu ni suala linalohusu Usalama wa nchi.

Kitengo cha kufuatilia magonjwa duniani kilichowekwa na Obama alichoondoa Trump kilikuwa White House siyo kwa magavana tena kikiwa na makao kule Wuhan China.

Kwa Marekani usalama wa nchi siyo Polisi na Jeshi, ni pamoja na Uchumi, na mambo ya kijamii kama Afya.
Hapa ndipo kuna tatizo la wengi kuelewa. Magvana wana maeneo yao lakini juu ya yote WH ni Top Bro!

Kuchonganisha ni kukwepa majukumu, Trump anapaswa kuongoza kwa kushirikiana na magavana na si kujificha nyuma ya magavana kama anavyofanya sasa.

Silent majority ni ipi unayoongelea? na kwa kigezo gani?Kwa Trump silent majority ni ' race' ingawa hasemi na kwa polls zilivyo, sasa ameacha uchumi, vita n.k. bali silent majority.

A republican is just a democrat who has been mugged... inasemekana hivyo. Kwa hiyo disenfranchisement ya base za democrats hasa kuhusiana na protests/riots, inaweza kuongeza idadi ya wapiga kura kwa Trump kwa namna isivyotarajiwa.

Ndiyo inaweza kutokea, swali ni je ni kwa ukubwa gani? Je, mauaji yaliyotokea hayana impact na hayawezi kupunguza kura za Trump kutoka kwa independents , people of color kama Latinos? Sijui na sina uhakika

Jambo muhimu ni kwamba uchaguzi wa Marekani 2020, siyo foregone conclusion, kwamba Trump atashindwa, kama ambavyo mtu anaweza kudhani kwa kuangalia meseji za foramu hii na kwa kusikiliza vyombo mashuhuri vya habari.

Nani kasema hilo?
Hapa lazima uwe na uvumilivu wa maoni na ni vema pia ukayasoma maoni kwa jicho angavu bila ''prejudice''

Ukisoma bandiko lililotangulia kuna eneo nimesema '' Trump ana base yake ya 38% ambayo hata iweje haimuachi''.
Hii maana yake ni kubwa kwamba ana mtaji na anachotaka ni kuongezea kama ilivyotokea 2016

Lakini pia mazingira ya 2016 ni tofauti na sasa. Wakati ule alikuwa Trump businessman ambaye wengi walimpa benefit of doubt. Je, watu hao bado watatoa benefit hiyo tena?

Kuna vigezo alitumia kama kushambulia Obamacare ambayo sasa ni maarufu. Je, mbinu hiyo itafanya kazi tena?
Kuna voter suppression iliyotumika kwa kutumia propaganda za Russia, je, itajirudia tena?
Je hali ya uchumi inampa nafasi kama ilivyokuwa 2016 wakati anapokea kutoka kwa Obama?

Kuna maswali mengi yanayohitaji majibu, na siasa za Marekani ni dynamics siyo kama zetu.
Kati ya leo na November anything can happen and change the trajectory of election

 

[Mag3]

Mimi nasema na kurudia...Trump was a mistake and, for people with any understanding, a mistake shouldn't be repeated, a mistake is corrected, removed and forgotten. Kwa Trump hatua hii tayari imeanza kutekelezwa akishuhudia huku akiwa bado anaitwa Rais.

...
...
Hitler has no place in modern history

​

 

[Mlenge]

Kati ya leo na November anything can happen and change the trajectory of election

That is exactly what it is making it exciting to watch it as if one is watching the Kariakoo-Derby.

 

[Mag3]

Kati ya leo na November anything can happen and change the trajectory of election

From now on, it is just going to get worse for the conman occupying the WH. This November what America is going to witness is something much bigger than an election; it is going to be a revolution and America is ripe for one, thanks to Donald Trump. Huyo mhuni amelikoroga na hatakuwa na njia ya kukwepa kulinywa pamoja na uchungu wake.