Dr. David Bell: Magufuli kukataa lock down nchini Tanzania kuliokoa maisha ya maelfu ya watu

Mailman said:
Sawa kaka mkubwa.

Corona haijaua hata mmoja, ni story za upinzani na kuaminishana uongo.
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Tumia utambuzi mdogo wangu, korona iliua na inaendelea kuua kote kote duniani. Lkn si at epidemic proportional kama wenzetu wa ulaya, marekani, amerika ya kusini na sasa india. Zile picha za kina mbowe na lema, zilikuwa ni kiki za kisiasa. kolona mpaka sasa ipo, hivi unasikia akina lema na mbowe au mpinzani yeyote akilipigia kelele. licha ya kuwa udhibiti is more or less kama alivyokuwa mwendazake.
 
Micho said:
Scientists mpaka sasa hawajaweza kurationalize mdudu mwenyewe....sio kila kitu ni cha kurationalize..vingine vinakwenda kwa gut feelings..and by the way he guessed right so it was not a stupid guess...

Rest in peace JPM
Utakumbukwa milele
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Any uninformed guess is stupid.
 
Kinuju said:
Mchambuzi kwenye gazeti hilo ambaye ni mfanyakazi aliyepita wa shirika la afya duniani (WHO) amesema kitendo cha Magufuli kukataa lock down nchini Tanzania kuliokoa maisha ya maelfu ya watu hasa akina mama, wazee na watoto.

Mchambuzi huyo amesema kwenye nchi ambazo walifungia watu ndani(lockdown) maelfu ya watu walikufa kutokana na njaa pamoja na magonjwa mengine na siyo Corona.

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Magufuli’s Covid response saved thousands​


Dr David Bell

He may have been ridiculed in the West for rejecting lockdowns and encouraging prayer-a-thons. But as ex-World Health Organization scientist Dr David Bell explains, Tanzania's late president John Magufuli is not seen as a pariah by many in the scientific community – he’s seen as a life-saver.

If you read the BBC website, you probably think Tanzania’s late president was either a rebel, a ‘Covid denier’ or just plain stupid.
In reality, he was none of these.

President Magufuli was actually a highly educated scientist with a PhD in chemistry, who probably saved thousands of lives by refusing to embrace lockdowns and other knee-jerk reactions foisted on the people in much of Africa and the West.

Magufuli’s decision not to lock down was consistent with the evidence-based pandemic guidelines released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019.

He rightly predicted that Covid-19 mortality in Africa would be very low compared to other major killers like malaria, tuberculous (TB) and HIV-Aids, and followed good public health principles in prioritising these higher burden diseases that particularly afflict the young, while telling Tanzanians not to panic.

He also prioritised keeping the economy growing, which is in the long term the most effective way of improving life-expectancy and health. In short, he acted as you would expect a well-trained scientist and rational public health expert to act in the Tanzanian context.

Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, the media has demanded longer and harder lockdowns, as if they were normal – or helpful.
But they rarely point out that no pandemic plan recommended mass business closures and restrictions on religious freedom, travel, or normal societal function before 2020, because removing these is expected to cause greater harm, and impinges greatly on fundamental human rights.

We never implemented any of these measures during the SARS, MERS or swine flu outbreaks of recent years. People attended places of worship, caught packed buses and trains, the young went clubbing and danced and sang and kissed.

The same was true for Tanzanians during this pandemic too.

And rightly so.

Most Tanzanians are young and not obese, and so are at very low risk from Covid-19.

President Magufuli received a lot of bad press for telling his countrymen to go to church at the start of the pandemic to ‘pray’ Covid away.

But mass gatherings would not be expected to put the vast majority of the Tanzanian population at significant risk.
Tens of thousands of sports fans went to stadiums in Florida and Texas recently, and there was no noted uptick in cases afterwards.

Of course, protecting the vulnerable from harm is important in any epidemic, and it’s difficult to say whether the mass prayer-a-thons were a good idea from a purely transmission standpoint, as they may have increased risk to older people early on in Tanzania’s outbreak.

Building so-called ‘herd immunity’ in young people rapidly through such gatherings would however be expected to exert a protective effect, if the vulnerable are well protected until such transmission-suppressing immunity is achieved.

The policy overall was probably far better for public health than strict lockdowns, which led to the first recessions in a quarter of a century in many African countries, as well as a reduction in treatment for major killers like malaria, tuberculous (TB) and HIV-Aids.
The virus that leads to Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, is likely to become endemic, and as herd immunity is reached through natural infection or through vaccination, severe disease and death will become increasingly uncommon.

Multiple studies have shown very limited impact of stricter lockdowns on Covid-19 mortality.

Therefore, one would expect Tanzania, like Sweden, Croatia, Belarus and other ‘non-lockdown’ countries, to have similar overall Covid-19 deaths and epidemic trajectories as comparable lockdown countries in the end.

The vehement criticism of President Magufuli in the media is therefore disappointing and highly ignorant. It does appear that Western journalists find it easier to smear leaders in African countries than European leaders. Sweden's leaders, for instance, have never been labelled 'Covid deniers'.

This is not new, but perhaps shows how much hypocrisy and prejudice persist in Western society.

Tanzania appears to have done better from a health point of view than most other low-income countries through this last year. While millions of Africans have been thrown into hunger and poverty, Tanzania has seen GDP rise throughout 2020.

Falls in GDP and general impoverishment are associated with increases in all-cause mortality.

This is particularly the case in sub-Saharan Africa, where food security is often a real problem and control of endemic diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis and HIV-Aids is fragile.

It is therefore highly likely that, in maintaining a well-functioning economy, he and his government were responsible for greatly reducing mortality. UNICEF estimate almost a quarter of a million additional child deaths in South Asia in 2020 due to the responses to Covid-19 there.

It is likely that similar tolls will be seen in sub-Saharan Africa but we would expect that Tanzania will now be relatively protected from this.

Let us hope, for Tanzanians’ sake, that this continues with his successor.

Western media may have had a good laugh at President Magufuli – and Tanzanians in general – for thinking they could ‘pray’ away a virus.

But, rhetoric aside, by refusing to lockdown, and by refusing to divert health resources away from malaria and TB to test people with no symptoms for a virus with a very low fatality rate, Magufuli was following an orthodox pandemic response.

He was also orthodox in his approach to human rights. Religious freedom was considered an important human right by most Western journalists only 18 months ago, and fear should not change fundamental human rights.

Honest journalists should acknowledge the benefits of Magufuli’s approach, however much it may contradict their current preferred world view.

Ridiculing religious observances that fall outside their experience, and denigrating public health science that they clearly don’t understand, is not good journalism.

It just highlights how ignorant they are.
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Agree with you Magufuli will always be remembered...................
 
Safi sana huyu Dr. kaongea ukweli mtupu tena ingepaswa nchi zilizoweka lockdown wakatuambia ni raia wangapi walipoteza maisha kwa njaa, msongo wa mawazo na magonjwa mengine kisha tulinganishe na athari za covid.
 
christeve88 said:
Safi sana huyu Dr. kaongea ukweli mtupu tena ingepaswa nchi zilizoweka lockdown wakatuambia ni raia wangapi walipoteza maisha kwa njaa, msongo wa mawazo na magonjwa mengine kisha tulinganishe na athari za covid.
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Kenya tu hapa wamekufa mamilioni kwa njaa na si Corona
 
Slowly said:
Jamaa kwenye hili na la ujambazi daaah ni haki yake Kwa kweli japo intention yake haikuwa kuokoa bali kuendelea kupata pesa za Kodi , Sera zake za uchumi tuu ndo nilitofautiana naye bittery tena Sana
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Mkuu ujambazi hasa vibaka kwa sasa ni kama wamefunguliwa mlango yaani wanaiba kweli kweli hasa TV huko. Mbey na rafik zangu wawili washachapiwa TV ndani ya week mbili ila nashukuru jesh la polis waliipata moja katika harakati za kuuza. Jana tu moja imechapwa tena wamevunja mlango na kuingia ndani. Sasa najiuliza JPM aliwezaje kuudhibiti huu ujambazi na uwizi mdogo kwa kutumia jeshi la polis hili hili?. Hizi kero za vibaka na ujambazi zinatupotezea amani wananchi.
 
dega said:
Naomba mnisaidie hivi ni dunia nzima ilikua katika lockdown isipokua Tanzania tu?
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Hili ndilo swali la msingi!! Ila Watanzania ni dhaifu sana katika kuchanganua masuala hasa ya kisayansi na kimataifa.

Klichokuwa kinaongelewa ni kudhibiti mipaka ya kuingia na kutoka na kuwapima wageni. Pili kuwaoima wagonjwa wanaoingia hospitalini na wakikutwa wana ugonjwa watengwe na kutibiwa.

Tatu kuandika chanzo cha kifo kuwa ni COVID19 iwapo mtu atakufa na COVID 19 na hatimaye kutoa takwimu kwa Shirika la Afya Duniani (WHO).

Lockdown kwa hapa Africa tuliishuhudia South Africa tu kwenye mazingira ya hali ya hewa inayoganana na Ulaya. Ulaya na America ndiyo walikuwa na lock down ambayo watu walizuiwa kutoka.

Kenya jirani zetu walikuwa na zuio kujumuika baada ya saa 12 jioni.

Mwendazake anatukuzwa na wasioelewa kama huyo Dr David Bell, Sina uhakika kama kweli ni mwanasayansi wa WHO
 
Bepari2020 said:
Kama takwimu za COVID hazikutolewa, huyo mchambuzi anajuaje wangapi walikufa au hawakufa na COVID?
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Hilo ndiyo swali linatakiwa kujibiwa na wote wanaoshabikia propaganda za Mwendazake. Huwezi kuwa na valid conclusion kama huna takwimu zozote za waliokufa
 
christeve88 said:
Safi sana huyu Dr. kaongea ukweli mtupu tena ingepaswa nchi zilizoweka lockdown wakatuambia ni raia wangapi walipoteza maisha kwa njaa, msongo wa mawazo na magonjwa mengine kisha tulinganishe na athari za covid.
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New Zealand ni success story ya lockdown toka mwaka jana. Utafiti ukiufanya kwa bias huwezi pata objective results.!!

Mfano kwenye utafiti unaopendekeza ningehoji je kwa watu waliobaki lockdown (and of course hawakupata corona) ni thamani gani in terms of dollars imepona sababu hawakuhitaji kwenda hospitali ama kufariki??

Of course ukifanya tafiti ya hivo utagundua lockdown ilikua effective kwenye maeneo yenye mlipuko. So tuache biasness ya tafiti
 
Bepari2020 said:
Kama takwimu za COVID hazikutolewa, huyo mchambuzi anajuaje wangapi walikufa au hawakufa na COVID?
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Kwa mazingira yetu unafikiri watu walikufa kiasi kikubwa namna hiyo? Swala la vifo vilikuwepo lakini huwezi linganisha na mataifa mengine, kwa hilo JPM alikuwa sahihi ingawa wengi tulipinga hatua hiyo
 
SN.BARRY said:
Kuna dada mmoja mlokole yupo Tegeta. Alikuwa anamsifia Magufuli kuwa kamaliza Corona Tanzania. Mwaka jana mwezi June/Julay mama yake na bibi yake walikufa kwa Corona. Walipishana siku mbili.

Hadi leo hataki kumsikia Magufuli.
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Magufuli katika hilo angefanaje?? Maana hatua za kawaida za afya kwa miezi hiyo tayari tulikuwa nazo kama Taifa
 
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