...CCM is stabilising, CHADEMA is shrinking and CUF is disappearing!

[Kitila Mkumbo]

My verdict of the 27 ward by-election results: CCM is stabilising, CHADEMA is shrinking and CUF is disappearing

Dr Kitila Mkumbo
In November 2012 I wrote an article entailing my assessment of the outcome of the council by-elections in 29 wards across the country. The article was published in the weekly Raia Mwema No. 267 of 7 November 2012 titled CHADEMA inakua, CCM inasinyaa (CHADEMA growing, CCM shrinking). In this election, CCM won in 22 wards, CHADEMA in five wards and TLP and CUF won in one ward each. Both CCM and CHADEMA celebrated these results jubilantly.

My verdict of this outcome was that CCM was shrinking, and CHADEMA was growing but at a rather slow pace. My assessment was based on the fact that CHADEMA had won in four new wards that were won by CCM in the 2010 general elections and managed to defend its victory in one ward that it won in the general elections.

My assessment was criticised by the leaders and fans of both parties. CCM, on the one hand, criticised my assessment by concluding that CCM was shrinking, and CHADEMA, on the other, criticised my assessment by concluding that it was growing at a slower pace than would be expected. Indeed, being a member of CHADEMA then, I had made a more scathing criticism in the party meetings by stating that the level of victory that we were getting in the by-elections was too little and did not match the level of enthusiasm and popularity that the party was enjoying in the streets. Thus, I was actually less critical of CHADEMA in the public domain than I had been in the party meetings. My criticism was not positively received by many of my colleagues in the party and I was lazily labelled as pessimistic, and that I was too academic and idealistic in my analysis because I did not know the actual politics on the ground.

Today again I make my analysis of the just concluded council by-election in 27 wards across the country. All the main political parties participated in these elections, with CCM and CHADEMA filing candidates in all wards except one in Lushoto (Mtae Ward) where the CCM candidate went unopposed.

I have argued elsewhere that the outcome of an election is assessed quantitatively, rather than qualitatively. Thus, I will use the numbers here to see how the parties have faired in this election, which is clearly a barometer test for what is likely to happen in the forthcoming local government and general elections later this year and next year, respectively.

The February 2014 ward by-election was held in 27 wards across the country. The results of this election show that CCM won in 23 wards, CHADEMA in three wards and NCCR-Mageuzi in one ward. CUF, one of the major opposition political parties in the country, is nowhere to be seen; the party is slowly but surely disappearing from Tanzania Mainland politics! Proportionally, the share of the parties in these 27 wards translates into 85 percent for CCM, 11 percent for CHADEMA and one percent for NCCR-Mageuzi. With respect to the proportion of votes the picture is as follows: CCM 19703 (53%), CHADEMA 12758 (34%), CUF 3318 (9%) and NCCR-Mageuzi 1378 (4%). These votes do not include those in the Mtae Ward (Lushoto) where the CCM candidate sailed unopposed.

What do these numbers mean in terms of which party is progressing on which direction? One way to assess the outcome of this election is to compare these results with the results of the recent previous similar elections. This is the third ward by-election since the 2010 general elections. The first election was held in November 2012 involving 29 wards and the second was held in June 2013 involving 22 wards. I will not deal with the by-election in Arusha held later in 2013 because its context is different.

In the November 2012 election CCM won in 22 wards, CHADEMA won in 5 wards and other parties won in two wards. Proportionally, this translated into 76 percent for CCM, 17 percent for CHADEMA and 7 percent for other parties. In terms of the number and proportion of votes, CCM garnered 29,558 votes (50%), CHADEMA 20,884 votes (32%), and other political parties garnered 7297 (18%).

In the June 2013 by-election, CCM won in 16 wards and CHADEMA won in six wards giving a proportion of 72 percent and 28 percent respectively. In terms of votes, CCM garnered 16,117 votes (53%) and CHADEMA garnered 14,258 (47%).

Clearly, the above trend in the three sets of council election results show that, although it can no longer talk of resounding victory, CCM has remained relatively stable after the 2012 losses, while CHADEMA has been loosing after gaining substantially in 2012 (see Figure 1 below).

The picture is even gloomier when you consider only CCM and CHADEMA in the election result equation. As Figure 2 shows, since 2013, CCM has been gaining while CHADEMA has been loosing in the share of votes.

In conclusion, therefore, it is clear from the above analysis that CCM's margin of victory has remained relatively stable, though not as impressive as it used to be a couple of years ago. The analysis above is also clear for CHADEMA: it has been shrinking and the going for this party has particularly been bumpy and tough in the just concluded 2014 by-election. If this trend is not reversed, the picture is hopeless and gloomy for CHADEMA in the next set of elections.

The question that is mind boggling to keen followers of political trends in Tanzania is: why is it that CCM seems to be gaining momentum and continues to win the trust of voters despite its seemingly poor performance in almost every sector of governance? Perhaps even a more sobering question is: why is it that the level of enthusiasm and popularity that we see in the streets for CHADEMA does not seem to correspond with the proportion of votes it has been garnering in the three by-elections? Here are my four reasons why CHADEMA is not doing as good as it should be.

First, voters are clearly tired of CCM and would surely want to replace it. The problem is that CHADEMA does not seem to be providing a credible alternative. This is mainly because, while CHADEMA has managed to expose the flaws of CCM, it has miserably failed to show that it can be a credible alternative. It is one thing to tell people that the road you are following is bumpy; it is completely another thing to show an alternative route to the bumpy road. It is not that CHADEMA does not have good policies. No. The CHADEMA 2010 manifesto came up with some of the best policies this country has ever produced. The trouble is that CHADEMA leaders are simply note interested in articulating their policy positions and pragmatic approaches to the problems confronting the country.

CHADEMA leaders have become so obsessed with digging poles into CCM policies and deeds and at throwing sound bites without substance. Consequently, the audiences truly find a lot of fun in what CHADEMA leaders would say, but nothing more than the fun that it comes with sound bites. Back home at a reflection table voters would find nothing tangible from what they were told at a public rally that can address their basic problems now and in future. The final conclusion: no alternative route and therefore I should continue with my bumpy road until a new road is found.

Second, of recent it is has become increasingly difficult to disentangle between CHADEMA and CCM leaders with respect to moral standing. While rhetorically, for example, CHADEMA leaders would make a lot of noise about lavish Government expenditures, practically, when they get an opportunity, they behave more or less the same way and sometimes even worse than the notorious CCM leaders. It has become apparent, for example, that CHADEMA leaders also love lavish and grandiose cars that they rubbished in the 2010 campaigns. CHADEMA MPs love foreign trips that come with heft Perdiems. More interestingly, CHADEMA MPs love the increase in bunge posho that they scathingly criticised in their 2010 manifesto.

When it comes to increasing MPs allowances, CCM and CHADEMA MPs would behave the same way-taking the allowances silently and saying nothing to that effect. There is an on-going debate about the allowances to be paid to members of the Constituent assembly at Tshs. 700,000/= per day, which would become the biggest mockery to the Tanzanian taxpayer in the history of this country. But guess what: neither CCM nor CHADEMA have uttered a word about this bigotry. Voters are seeing all these manoeuvrings and the conclusion is that: these are the same people-‘it is just the question of it is our time to eat'. Thus, it becomes a dilemma for the voters: should we choose the experienced but somehow an already full ‘eater' or should we replace it with a new hungry and empty tammy ‘eater'?

Third, CHADEMA is incapable of self-criticism and therefore of self-regulating. CHADEMA leaders suffer what we call in psychology ‘it is because of them' attitude. When it comes to an election defeat they would always attribute their losses externally. The problem with external attribution is that you do not have control over external factors that made you to lose an election. Thus, it is easier to rectify the situation in future when you say, for example, that we lost this election because we had a bad candidate or because we did not do enough campaigning or because we did not have sufficient financial resources. Such factors are all correctable in future and they are within the control of the affected person. The trouble is when you lose an election and you claim that I lost because the police were favouring the ruling party, or because the returning officer was not fair, etc. All these may be genuine reasons, but they are external factors that you do not and will never have control over.

The fourth and perhaps a more obvious reason for the poor showing of CHADEMA in the February 2014 by-election is the on-going leadership intraparty crisis. This is particularly the case following the CHADEMA leadership decision to wage a character assassination war on an individual. Instead of campaigning for election victory, CHADEMA top leadership used a great part of the campaign period attacking Zitto Kabwe. Psychologically, in a situation where an institution fights an individual, the latter will always win the public sympathy and in this case CHADEMA has only managed to make Zitto look like a victim deserving protection rather than a problem.

Lastly, let me address one issue that CHADEMA leaders seem to be overwhelmed with. There is a belief among CHADEMA leaders, and it is actually resonating among their fans, that they will definitely win the next election because there will be a re-registration of new voters. This assumption is made on the belief that the majority of young people tend to support opposition political parties, in this case CHADEMA. Two issues are worthy of addressing here. Firstly, CHADEMA does not have any guarantee that all or a substantial proportion of new voters would vote for them. The question CHADEMA leaders should be asking themselves is what is it that they have done to these new voters to deserve their support? We know, for example, that Lowasa and Makamba junior have recently been busy courting the bodabodas in hope of gaining their support towards 2015 election. What Makamba and Lowas are doing may appear nonsensical but it is resonating with young people in major towns in the country and this is likely to translate into votes for CCM come 2015 as it happened in 2005 when JK promised to offer young people massive employment.

Furthermore, the importance of new voters is often exaggerated. We are talking of a group that was at least 15 years at the time of the 2012 census and which will be 18 by 2015 if the registration happens then. According to the 2012 census data, the population of this group is 3,813,299, which is roughly about 20 percent of the expected voters. It is naïve to think that all these youth will register and will eventually vote. It is even more naïve to think this group will only vote for one party called CHADEMA. As I said earlier, so far the opposition has not given any tangible reason as to why young people should vote for them and not for the crook politicians who are providing them with free bodabodas.

CHADEMA still have the opportunity to seize the moment as the main opposition political party and eventually become a credible alternative to the tired and disfigured CCM. But they should know that people will not just vote CCM out because they are tired of it and CCM is tired of governing. They will vote out CCM if they see a credible alternative. They will not vote out CCM and vote in a group of politicians who pose themselves as opposition while they are actually a bunch of ‘it is our time to eat' yahoos! And more importantly, they should know that they are not the only fish in the pond. A credible and serious opposition might be in the offing!

Dr Kitila Mkumbo is Senior Lecturer in Psychology and Education at the University of Dar es Salaam.

 

[Mtamile]

Japo umetumia Lugha ya kikoloni ila kidogo nimeokoteleza vipointi kidogo.

Nimekuwa nikijiuliza hivi kuna tofauti gani kati ya majimbo yanayoongozwa na Chadema na Majimbo yanayoongozwa na CCM? Yaani kuna tofauti gani kati ya Nyamagana ya zamani iliyokuwa ikiongozwa na Masha na hii Nyamagana ya sasa inayoongozwa na Wenje? Au Ilemela ya Diallo na Ilemela ya Kiwia?

Sasa kama hamna tofauti, hawa wananchi mtawashawishije waendelee kuwachagua wakati hamna tofauti na mnao wapinga? Mnawaambia watu hii njia ni mbovu lakini hamuwaonyeshi njia sahihi au mkiwaonyesha njia mnawaonyesha njia mbovu kama ile ya awali

 

[Azizi Mussa]

dr.kitila umesema ukweli kabisa! na kinachoitafuna chadema kwa sasa,ni kulewa sifa na ushabiki uliopitiliza kiasi cha kufunga mlango wa fikra.

Mtamile

Swali hili niliuliza kwenye uzi wangu "Ushindani wa kisiasa tanzania na siasa tunayoitaka!"naskitika hakuna aliye jibu.

 

[Pascal Mayalla]

Mkuu Kitila, umeamua kutumia academic language ili kutuengua sisi wakina St. Kayumba?!.

Kwa vile you were among the team nen, you can't avoid the blame in a collective responsibilities, kama ule war aka ungeuandika as your assessment na kuupresent kwenye vikao halal, nadhani hali isingekuwa hive ilivyo sass!.

Viongozi wenu wa Chadema na wewe ukiwemo, man macho, lakini hanuoni!, mna masikio lakini hamsikii!.

Mwaka 2010 baada tuu ya ushindi, niliwaeleza hivi CCM Imechokwa; CHADEMA Haijajipanga! - Jamii Forums, humo nilieleza hivi,

Wanabodi,
Nikiwa hapa Dom, nimebahatika kukutana baadhi ya wabunge wapya wa CCM na wa kambi ya upinzani, kujaribu kufahamiana, sio siri, baadhi yao hawana hata substance ya ni nini kilichowafanya washinde, na kwa viti maalum ndio usiseme kabisa!, wengi wao kama si makapi tuu, basi ni vidumu, basi ni kwa ajili ya kutoa huduma na kibinaadamu!, na hili litathibitishwa na michango yao kikao cha Januari.

Nilipoongea na baadhi ya wale makamanda waliokata magogo kanda ya ziwa, nimewaona ni wa kawaida tuu, hivyo nimefikia jibu moja la uhakika, kuwa CCM katika baadhi ya maeneo, imechokwa mpaka basi!, upinzani hata ungesimamisha jiwe, lingechaguliwa!, nadhani ni moja ya sababu kuu iliyopelekea wengi hawakujitokeza waliona kujitokeza kupiga kura ni kujisumbua tuu!.

Hakuna ubishi, Chadema imenyanyuka, toka wabunge 5 mpaka 22 wa kuchaguliwa tena majimbo ya haja, huku sio kukua bali ni kupaa, tatizo kubwa la Chadema, bado hawajipanga.

Kichama, wanachadema mkubali msikubali, chama chenu japo kipo juu, lakini bado hamjajipanga kwa sura ya kitaifa.
Kwa vile CCM imekaa mkao wa kifo, hii ndio opportunity yenu kujipanga muwe na sura ya kitaifa, Watanzania wawamini wawakabidhi nchi mwaka 2015.
!

Hivi ndivyo alivyonijibu Katibu wako Mkuu!.

PASCO,

Mwanajamvi nimefurahi sana kujitambulisha kama Political analyst. Ningelifurahi sana kusaidia Taifa lako kama analist kama ungelitusaidia yafuatayo:

i) Utafuti unaonyesha nini duniani kuhusu Leader of the Opposition katika mifumo ya mabunge yaliyoko Duniani. Kwa mtu yeyote anayefanya analysis angelitegemea kuona American Model na WestMinster Model zinaeleza nini. Analysis yako ime base kwa personalities badala ya Model na analysis ya aina hii kwa maoni yangu ni ya hatari sana kwa kuwa inakosa misingi ya kisayansi. Politics is science and should never be reduced to anything less than empirical analysis to be scientific.

ii) Analysis yako imetoa Conclusions kabla ya kujenga plausible major and minor. Scientific and logical conclusion can only be based on a well founded "major and minor". Ili tunaofuatilia tuweze kunufaika na analysis yako ningelitegemea a properly constitued logical arugement inayofuata clasical logical construction ambayo ndio msingi wa analysis yoyote ambayo ni credible.

iii) Analysis yako inaonekana kukosa basic and simple facts. Kwa mfano unapoeleza muundo wa Kambi ya Upinzani tungelitegemea misingi ya hoja yako, analysis ya kwanini tuko hapa tulipo ambapo Chadema wameunda Kambi bila kuwashirikisha CUF and reasons leading to the same, kama kulikuwa na majadiliano yeyote yalikuwapo kwanini yalishindikana, Political Statusquo ya CUF ndani ya Serikali ya Mapinduzi Zanzibar inayoongozwa na CCM kama ambavyo Serikali ya Jamhuri ya Muungano inaongozwa pia na CCM hiyo hiyo na Thesis na Antithesis inayotokana na hali hiyo na matokeo yake au conclusions zinazotokana na situation hiyo kutokana na empirical analysis. Vinginevyo analysis unayojenga inaweza kuwa flawed na ikawa msingi mkubwa sana wa political fallacy ambayo ni ya hatari sana katika analysis ya kisayansi, na athari yake ni mbaya kwa kuwa wako wengi ambao watatumia analysis hiyo bila kuifanyia uchambuzi independent wakiamini umetolewa kwa msingi wa kisayansi. Athari za Fallacies katika historia inajulikana sana kwa historical philosophers pamoja na political philosophers.

iv) Maneno "Kuhodhi", "ubinafsi", "umimi", bila kuwa qualified ni manifestation ya "emotion", na kwa kiwango kikubwa ya "ego". Bila vigezo sahihi ya kisayansi maneno hayo ni manifestation kuwa ya kuwa subjective ambayo kimsingi ni kinyume na dhana ya "objective Political analyist unayoijenga. Hivyo ili tunufaike na matumizi ya maneno haya ningelitamani sana kuona qualification ya maneno hayo ili yaweze kulisaidia Taifa letu, kuliko kuyatumbukiza kwa mfumo unaoweza kutafsiriwa kwa sura mbalimbali. Na kwa bahati mbaya hoja hizi zimekwisha kujitokeza mara nyingi kwenye jamvi letu. Kwa vile nia na lengo la jamvi ni kusaida Taifa letu, na Taifa linajengwa na watu wenye uchungu wenye sifa na ujuzi mbalimbali, na hasa kwa kuwa umejitokeza hadharani kama Political Analist ambaye ni "objective" basi nilikuwa nimefurahi sana kupata analysis ambayo inatumia objective criteteria katika hoja zote ulizokuwa unajenga.

Natanguliza shukrani za dhati, na ninategemea kupata objective political analysis ya mapendekezo yako.

Mungu Ibariki Tanzania.

Naendelea na reseach, nitatoa matokeo ya jumla baada ya uchaguzi wa 2015.

NB, Dr. Kitila, ikitokea Baraza Kuu, wakapata sense na wakaamua kukuita!, na kukuomba myamalize, nakuomna sana rejea bila kinyongo, Chadema seriously needs help now than any other time!.

Pasco.

 

[Pascal Mayalla]

My verdict of the 27 ward by-election results: CCM is stabilising, CHADEMA is shrinking and CUF is disappearing
Dr Kitila Mkumbo is Senior Lecturer in Psychology and Education at the University of Dar es Salaam.

Dr. Kitila, usishangae hii very important thread iliyopanda tangu saa 11 jioni mpaka sasa ni only 6 posts, hii ni kutokana na lugha!. Sisi kina St. Kayumba, tumetoka kapa!.
Ukiweza kuipandisha kwa ile lugha yetu adhimu ya Kiswahili, tutaichangia kwa wingi!.
Pasco.

 

[Yericko Nyerere]

Nimeisoma kwa umakini sana, imenilazimu kurejea shuleni kusoma kwa utulivu sana,

Hii yote ni kwakuwa lugha uliyotumia ni hii ya kitumwa inayotumika kuwahubiria mataifa,

Ninayo yakuchangia katika andiko hili lakini sitawatendea haki waswahili wenzangu waaminio katika uswahili.

Niseme maneno machache tu kuwa, ulikuwa sehemu ya viongozi wa chama hiki tena kwa ngazi kuu ya kimaamuzi kabisa, ushauri huu mzuri uliwahi kuutoa ndani ya chama na haukupokelewa??

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

Pasco, Yericko: mtanisamehe bure kwa kuandika kwa kiingereza.

Mambo haya Yote niliyasema ndani ya chama kwa mdomo na kwa maandishi.

Tatizo la viongozi wa cdm alishalisema Prof Baregu, ambalo ni kutokusilizana. Lingine ni kutokuwa na uwezo wa kujikosoa. Ndio maana hata kwa matokeo haya wanadiriki kujisifu!

 

[Yericko Nyerere]

Kitila Mkumbo

Mkuu nakushukuru sana kusema kile kilichomoyoni mwako halisi,

1. Sipende kuamini na isiaminiwe kuwa viongozi wa chadema, kamati kuu yenye wajumbe zaidi 33, baraza kuu lenye wajumbe 220... eti hawasikilizani na hawajikosoi??

Chadema hupokea ushauri wa watu wa kila kada ilimradi ushauri huo uwe na mafaa kwa chama,

Nitajipa mfano hai mimi mwenyewe ambae sio kiongozi wala mjumbe wa cc lakini hutumia fursa ya kufikisha ushauri wangu na hupokelewa,

Ieleweke, kupokea ushauri ni hatua moja, na kuufanyia kazi ushauri ni hatua nyingine,

Sasa kwa maelezo yako hapo ni kuwa hata "kupokelewa" tu huwa inashindikana.

Hoja yamsingi labda ungetuambia kuwa "wewe" umeshatoa ushauri wako ma hujasikilizwa, hili liwe lako binafsi lakini si la jumla,

Hapo sasa tungejenga hoja kuwa kuna jambo ambalo ama ushauri huo ulikuwa na mawaa, ama chama kwa ujumla kiliamua kuwa hakitaki ushauri wako, ama ama ama ama ama ama ama...........................,....,

 

[Kimweri]

Mkuu nakushukuru sana kusema kile kilichomoyoni mwako halisi,

1. Sipende kuamini na isiaminiwe kuwa viongozi wa chadema, kamati kuu yenye wajumbe zaidi 33, baraza kuu lenye wajumbe 220... eti hawasikilizani na hawajikosoi??

Chadema hupokea ushauri wa watu wa kila kada ilimradi ushauri huo uwe namafaa kwa chama,

Nitajipa mfano hai mimi mwenyewe ambae sio kiongozi wala mjumbe wa cc lakini hutumia fursa ya kufikisha ushauri wangu na hupokelewa,

Ieleweke, kupokea ushauri ni hatua moja, na kuufanyia kazi ushauri ni hatua nyingine,

Sasa kwa maelezo yako hapo ni kuwa hata "kupokelewa" tu huwa inashindikana.

Hoja yamsingi labda ungetuambia kuwa "wewe" umeshatoa ushauri wako ma hujasikilizwa, hili liwe lako binafsi lakini si la jumla,

Hapo sasa tungejenga hoja kuwa kuna jambo ambalo ama ushauri huo ulikuwa na mawaa, ama chama kwa ujumla kiliamua kuwa hakitaki ushauri wako, ama ama ama ama ama ama ama...........................,....,

how about you stop your attacks on Dr. Mkumbo and actually discuss his contents?is it a language barrier or is it the same symptoms discussed in what he clearly portrayed?

 

[Kimweri]

My verdict of the 27 ward by-election results: CCM is stabilising, CHADEMA is shrinking and CUF is disappearing


Dr Kitila Mkumbo is Senior Lecturer in Psychology and Education at the University of Dar es Salaam.

It is an open secret that most of us who used to see CDM in good light are distancing ourselves from this mockery by the hour.It is one thing to oppose what CCM is doing to this country but it is craziness of the highest order to elect to power even crook-ier politicians such as those within CDM today.

CDM missed the wave when they failed to capitalize on their popularity that was based on vehemently opposing CCM poor governing. 2010-2015 was supposed to be the period CDM would show the constituents of areas that elected CCM cum 2010 that they made a mistake. Can anyone tell me with a straight face that Arusha or Nyamagana constituents are any better than let say Kinondoni or Shinyanga Mjini? does a person residing in Kawe feel the difference of Having Mdee as opposed to having a CCM Chap before that?

Most politicians seem give Common wananchi way less credit with regards to how keen they are in electing leaders. Problems of a person residing in Katavi are not necessarily the same as the one in Same. with all it's poor deeds CCM knows this.they cater to each electorate individually.

We adviced before in scores the need for CDM to have proper stratergists/ Mathematicians and theorists who would disect elections in numbers game. who would get down to every single vote and turn it into a YES to CDM,so far we are seeing empty dumpty noises from the likes of God Knows who Politicians. It is one thing to be popular, and it's another to win elections.

With regards to your very last Line. No matter how far fetched this IDEA is I will strongly suggest it be taken very seriously. Tanzania Needs this, we need a party that would stand on Morals and nothing else, we need a breath of Fresh air, we need something worthy a plunge.
A party that would be so squeaky clean, dirty politicians will shy away from it, and those who dare infect it will be turned away, not based on their personality, but on what the party stands for. This route might be longer, but it will eventually be "the long walk to freedom" Tanzania needs.

As per my understanding we have so many of those people, I at least included, who want to give back to this majestic country but can tell a rotten egg political party miles away. It's not that TZ does not have morally symmetric people, it's just that most times for the sake of sanity it's better to keep away as opposed to dancing in dirty waters CCM and CDM are used to.

 

[Kimweri]

Dr. Kitila, usishangae hii very important thread iliyopanda tangu saa 11 jioni mpaka sasa ni only 6 posts, hii ni kutokana na lugha!. Sisi kina St. Kayumba, tumetoka kapa!.
Ukiweza kuipandisha kwa ile lugha yetu adhimu ya Kiswahili, tutaichangia kwa wingi!.
Pasco.

This thread epitomizes what's going on in CDM now. Noisy Politics with ZERO substance. wale wanaotukana kutwa hawatakuja hapa. Thx Dr, you have just self moderate the thread. No one will receive a Ban here.

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

Kitila Mkumbo

Mkuu nakushukuru sana kusema kile kilichomoyoni mwako halisi,

1. Sipende kuamini na isiaminiwe kuwa viongozi wa chadema, kamati kuu yenye wajumbe zaidi 33, baraza kuu lenye wajumbe 220... eti hawasikilizani na hawajikosoi??

Chadema hupokea ushauri wa watu wa kila kada ilimradi ushauri huo uwe na mafaa kwa chama,

Nitajipa mfano hai mimi mwenyewe ambae sio kiongozi wala mjumbe wa cc lakini hutumia fursa ya kufikisha ushauri wangu na hupokelewa,

Ieleweke, kupokea ushauri ni hatua moja, na kuufanyia kazi ushauri ni hatua nyingine,

Sasa kwa maelezo yako hapo ni kuwa hata "kupokelewa" tu huwa inashindikana.

Hoja yamsingi labda ungetuambia kuwa "wewe" umeshatoa ushauri wako ma hujasikilizwa, hili liwe lako binafsi lakini si la jumla,

Hapo sasa tungejenga hoja kuwa kuna jambo ambalo ama ushauri huo ulikuwa na mawaa, ama chama kwa ujumla kiliamua kuwa hakitaki ushauri wako, ama ama ama ama ama ama ama...........................,....,

Yericko: Hakuna anayesema kuwa kila ushauri upokelewe. Ninachosema mimi ni kuwa wa kweli. Huwezi katika uchaguzi wa kata 27 ukatapata viti vitatu halafu ukajisifu, huo ni uzuzu. Nilipokuwa ndani ya chama katika uchaguzi mdogo wa kata wa mwaka 2012 tulipopata kata tano kati ya kata 22 zilizokuwa zinashindaniwa niliandika makala kwenye Gazeti la Raia Mwema kuwa: CCM inasinyaa, CHADEMA inakua lakini kwa kasi ndogo. Nilijitahidi sana kuonyesha taswira kwamba tulikuwa tunakua lakini kwa kasi ndogo ambayo haitatufikisha kushinda uchaguzi mkuu wa 2015 na hivyo kulikuwa na haja ya kuongeza kasi. Katika vikao vya chama nikawa muwazi na mkali zaidi kwa kusema kwamba kiwango cha ushindi tunaopata katika chaguzi ndogo hakifanani kabisa na kiwango cha hamasa na 'kupendwa' kwetu kulikopo mitaani. Wenzangu kwenye hicho kikao unachokitaja wala hawakutaka kujadili hoja hii. Badala yake wakadharau na kusema mimi sijui chochote kwa sababu sipo kwenye field na wakatetea kwamba chama kilikuwa kinafanya vizuri.

Jambo hili tulilizungumzia pia kwenye waraka wetu wa mabadiliko, ambao nyie mlikuja kuuita wa mapinduzi na uhaini. Katika mahojiano yangu ya mwisho na Kamati Kuu ni jambo mojawapo ambalo nilihojiwa na mwendesha mashtaka mheshimiwa sana Tundu Lissu akisema kwamba nilisema uwongo kwa kusema kwamba chama kilikuwa kinakuwa kwa kasi ndogo wakati mambo yalikuwa yanaenda vizuri.

Nikasisitiza tena kwamba ukuaji wa chama hiki ni kwa kasi ndogo ambayo haiwezi kutupeleka kushinda uchaguzi mwakani. Kasi hii iliyopo sio mbaya kwa sasa kwa kuifanya CHADEMA iendelee kuwa chama kikuu cha upinzani. Unles wenzetu mnataka muendelee kuwa chama kikubwa cha upinzani na sio kushinda uchaguzi kwa maana ya kushika dola. Ndio maana sisi tuliamini kwamba uongozi uliopo umefikia saturation point na unahitaji kupumzika baada ya kufanya kazi kubwa ya kukifikisha chama hapa kilipo. Kadri wanavyoendelea ndivyo watakavyozidi kuboronga na watafika mahala hata kidogo walichokiejenga na sifa walizojijengea watazibomoa. Mkawa mbogo. Hamtaki watu wagusie mabadikiko ndani ya chama. Nyie mnadhani viongozi waliopo, na hasa mwenyekiti, ni perfect na kwamba bila yeye chama kitakufa. Endeleeni kuamini hivyo tutajadiliane tena mwakani baada ya uchaguzi mkuu.

 

[Ngongo]

Heshima sana Kitila Mkumbo nimesoma bandiko lako labda nichangie mambo mawili la kwanza ni suala la uongozi hasa nafasi ya Mwenyekiti wa chama.Sina tatizo iwapo chama kitafika mahali kikataka kumpumzisha Mbowe lakini katika njia sahihi tatizo langu kubwa ni njia mnazotunia ambazo kwa kiasi kikubwa zimechangia kukifikisha chama hapo kilipo.Tatizo lingine ni mtu unayefikiri anaweza kuchukua mikoba ya uenyekiti (Zitto) binafsi namwona Zito kama mwanasiasa mwenye papara,mroho wa madaraka,mdini,mkabila,mpenda sifa za kijinga,rahisi kutumika............ Laiti ungenitajia mwanasiasa mwingine labda ningekuelewa kidogo.

Yericko: Hakuna anayesema kuwa kila ushauri upokelewe. Ninachosema mimi ni kuwa wa kweli. Huwezi katika uchaguzi wa kata 27 ukatapata viti vitatu halafu ukajisifu, huo ni uzuzu. Nilipokuwa ndani ya chama katika uchaguzi mdogo wa kata wa mwaka 2012 tulipopata kata tano kati ya kata 22 zilizokuwa zinashindaniwa niliandika makala kwenye Gazeti la Raia Mwema kuwa: CCM inasinyaa, CHADEMA inakua lakini kwa kasi ndogo. Nilijitahidi sana kuonyesha taswira kwamba tulikuwa tunakua lakini kwa kasi ndogo ambayo haitatufikisha kushinda uchaguzi mkuu wa 2015 na hivyo kulikuwa na haja ya kuongeza kasi. Katika vikao vya chama nikawa muwazi na mkali zaidi kwa kusema kwamba kiwango cha ushindi tunaopata katika chaguzi ndogo hakifanani kabisa na kiwango cha hamasa na 'kupendwa' kwetu kulikopo mitaani. Wenzangu kwenye hicho kikao unachokitaja wala hawakutaka kujadili hoja hii. Badala yake wakadharau na kusema mimi sijui chochote kwa sababu sipo kwenye field na wakatetea kwamba chama kilikuwa kinafanya vizuri.

Jambo hili tulilizungumzia pia kwenye waraka wetu wa mabadiliko, ambao nyie mlikuja kuuita wa mapinduzi na uhaini. Katika mahojiano yangu ya mwisho na Kamati Kuu ni jambo mojawapo ambalo nilihojiwa na mwendesha mashtaka mheshimiwa sana Tundu Lissu akisema kwamba nilisema uwongo kwa kusema kwamba chama kilikuwa kinakuwa kwa kasi ndogo wakati mambo yalikuwa yanaenda vizuri.

Nikasisitiza tena kwamba ukuaji wa chama hiki ni kwa kasi ndogo ambayo haiwezi kutupeleka kushinda uchaguzi mwakani. Kasi hii iliyopo sio mbaya kwa sasa kwa kuifanya CHADEMA iendelee kuwa chama kikuu cha upinzani. Unles wenzetu mnataka muendelee kuwa chama kikubwa cha upinzani na sio kushinda uchaguzi kwa maana ya kushika dola. Ndio maana sisi tuliamini kwamba uongozi uliopo umefikia saturation point na unahitaji kupumzika baada ya kufanya kazi kubwa ya kukifikisha chama hapa kilipo. Kadri wanavyoendelea ndivyo watakavyozidi kuboronga na watafika mahala hata kidogo walichokiejenga na sifa walizojijengea watazibomoa. Mkawa mbogo. Hamtaki watu wagusie mabadikiko ndani ya chama. Nyie mnadhani viongozi waliopo, na hasa mwenyekiti, ni perfect na kwamba bila yeye chama kitakufa. Endeleeni kuamini hivyo tutajadiliane tena mwakani baada ya uchaguzi mkuu.

 

[TUJITEGEMEE]

The February 2014 ward by-election was held in 27 wards across the country. The results of this election show that CCM won in 23 wards, CHADEMA in three wards and NCCR-Mageuzi in one ward. CUF, one of the major opposition political parties in the country, is nowhere to be seen; the party is slowly but surely disappearing from Tanzania Mainland politics! Proportionally, the share of the parties in these 27 wards translates into 85 percent for CCM, 11 percent for CHADEMA and one percent for NCCR-Mageuzi. With respect to the proportion of votes the picture is as follows: CCM 19703 (53%), CHADEMA 12758 (34%), CUF 3318 (9%) and NCCR-Mageuzi 1378 (4%). These votes do not include those in the Mtae Ward (Lushoto) where the CCM candidate sailed unopposed.

What do these numbers mean in terms of which party is progressing on which direction? One way to assess the outcome of this election is to compare these results with the results of the recent previous similar elections. This is the third ward by-election since the 2010 general elections. The first election was held in November 2012 involving 29 wards and the second was held in June 2013 involving 22 wards. I will not deal with the by-election in Arusha held later in 2013 because its context is different.

In the November 2012 election CCM won in 22 wards, CHADEMA won in 5 wards and other parties won in two wards. Proportionally, this translated into 76 percent for CCM, 17 percent for CHADEMA and 7 percent for other parties. In terms of the number and proportion of votes, CCM garnered 29,558 votes (50%), CHADEMA 20,884 votes (32%), and other political parties garnered 7297 (18%).

In the June 2013 by-election, CCM won in 16 wards and CHADEMA won in six wards giving a proportion of 72 percent and 28 percent respectively. In terms of votes, CCM garnered 16,117 votes (53%) and CHADEMA garnered 14,258 (47%).

Clearly, the above trend in the three sets of council election results show that, although it can no longer talk of resounding victory, CCM has remained relatively stable after the 2012 losses, while CHADEMA has been loosing after gaining substantially in 2012 (see Figure 1 below).

With my poor 'kolonial' language, no way, I will let this pass unchallenged.

You know what !!! I get irritated when a researcher draws conclusion on results which, on his/her conscious, does not reflect the apparent reality. This is an absurd, while he/she knows well that it is unethical or unprofessional to commit himself/herself such professional sin, he/she still persist on justifying his absurdity.

In what world of researchers, conclusion can be reached based on the data which were obtained in poor sampling technique with awful treatment of samples...!! how can you compare the a feeding rate of pig with excretion rate of sheep..!?

What you have done Mkumbo, to me, is manipulation of justification which is unethical professionally. Tell the world a truth of what is happening on the ground. In doing so you will be one of heroes of the world.

I am definitely sure, you have understood what I mean.

 

[Bongolander]

Dr Mkumbo

Your post is very enlightening, detailed, and educative....just to mention a few. However there are many questions that need to be asked.

What criteria do you use to suggest that CCM is stabilizing? It is a bit hard to believe that results from current polls are good enough to suggest that CCM is stabilizing. In my view, and many will agree with me that the main problem which destabilized CCM, is doing away from her core principles, to being a different party in the name of CCM. That in my opinion has not changed. Until that happens, it will be hard to buy that. Polls in Tanzania are always been tricky, can be easily manipulated, contrary to the popular opinion, they are not what the show.

Can you define yourself as fighter or a quitter? Kwanini usitumie njia za kisomi kuwaaelewesha? ina maana safu yote ya uongozi wa Chadema inafanana? Chadema haina utaratibu wa kupambana na mambo kama hayo.

How come uongozi wa CCM umebehave same way kama CDM (baada ya kuwapuuza Kinana na Nape) na still kwa mujibu wa matokeo wako mbele? kama issue ni kutoambilika nani haambiliki zaidi CCM au CDM?

 

[Gamba la Nyoka]

The recent election result is an indicator to the very fact that Tanzanians have very little faith in CHADEMA.

This didn't come as an accident but i see it as a punishment to the empty slogans that never translate into actions that would inspire confidence to the people to really trust it as a voice to the poor and the disfranchised.

It doesn't need a rocket scientist to comprehend the ephemeral nature of CHADEMA operations. Undoubtedly these operations are not scientifically researched, lack the grains of professionalism but are well designed to fill the ego of the top leadership that naively make them feel good about themselves not the sordid gains of the party they lead. This is why for every person with a clear mind and who opens his eyes discern clearly how the party decelerates with a terrible speed!.

The infallible mentality of the top leadership, the moral decay and impertinent behavior toward dissenters has exposed them to the public and hence become a liability if not scourges to the party.

Tanzanians are mostly silent and idle viewers of situations but certainly have some certain things and values that they hold dearly. Tanzanians hate bullies. Unfortunately based on the very nature of CHADEMA cadres, foul languages and arrogance plus the mistreatment of people who have different views to that of theirs has been an abomination to the public.

Currently there are a lot of issues that need the voice of opposition in order to stir up peoples confidence, unfortunately the very party that would stand up and speak about them has shirked this responsibility, we have a poaching problem, our elephants are near to extinction, where is a tough and uncompromising voice of CHADEMA on this?, we have Electricity price hikes, life is getting tough everyday, Where is a loud cry of this from CHADEMA?, drug trafficking, our youth are held bondage on this disaster, but CHADEMA is only on the political skirmishes that dont necessary make sense to the common man.

To make things worse, even those who atleast show way to fight tough battles are ridiculed , called names such as traitors, but what they fail to know is INDIVIDUALS MAKE SENSE IN THE EYES OF PEOPLE MORE THAN AN ABSTRACT ENTITY CALLED THE PARTY, thats why people appreciate greatly the assidous efforts of Zitto Kabwe on so many key issues that tanzanians hold dearly!.

CHADEMA needs changes, the current leadership has failed massively to make tanzaniana come onboard. This is largely due to lack of vision from the top to steer the mission.Apparently the die hard followers are blind or are just in denial so to say!.

And to my opinion 2015 is a crossroad to the party, failure to replicate the successes of 2010 is a noose on the neck to the party itself and the very personal political carrier of the current Chadema leaders.
Democracy is what democracy is, and development is what development is. People want to see the party that call itself "Chama cha demokrasia na maendeleo", is real a democracy pioneer and with development capable agendas

 

[Azizi Mussa]

Mkuu Pasco ,
Kuna mahali kwenye bandiko lako pale juu, unamlaumu Kitila Mkumbo kwamba kwa nini hakuishauri chadema.

Ndugu yangu Pasco , uukumbuke Kitila alikuwa ni mshauri wa CHADEMA, ni vipi udhani kwamba hakuwa anaishauri CHADEMA? mkuu Pasco wewe mwenyewe nafuatilia mabandiko yako sana, ushawahi kuishauri CHADEMA mambo mazuri mengi tu lakini reaction yake tumeiona hata humu Jf tu. Inakuwa ni very negative tena ikiambatana na kejeli na matusi mengi mabaya mabaya na ya kukatisha tamaa hasa kama ushauri wenyewe unaenda kinyume na wateule kadhaa wa chama.

Ndugu Pasco , kwa harakkaka haraka mimi nilichokiona ndani ya chadema, si tatizo la kutoshauriwa bali kutopokea ushauri na kuuchuja kisha kuufanyia kazi hasa kama unatofautiana na msimamo wa wateule.Wanaotoa ushauri wa namna hiyo badala yakuchukuliwa kama mararafiki, huchukuliwa kama maadui.Hatimae hata wasomi ndani ya chama wanaotoa mawazo (hasa kama yanapingana na msimamo wa wateule) hunyanyapaliwa na kupuuzwa na wakikomaa wanakuwa wanajitafutia matatizo tu

Mkuu Pasco kwa hali inavyoonda, hata watu kama kina prf. Baregu huenda likatokea lolote wakati wowote.Kwa mfano kuna mahali hapo juu unashauri kwamba Kitila akiombwa kurudi arudi bila kinyongo, lakini natafakari ni nani huyo wa kumuomba kurudi na wakati suala lao linaonekawa wazi lilishughulikiwa kwa chuki, visasi, kukomoana na kubeba dhamira ya kudhalilishana? kumbuka kauli ya Lissu "Kama tungemruhusu Kitila kujiuzulu, angepata heshima asiyostahili kuipata"! Pasco hii kauli ni nzito sana sana mkuu! Ndani ya chadema makao makuu, kwa sasa inaonekana kuna tatizo kubwa la kukosekana kwa nia njema miongoni mwa wadau kadhaa na hapo kuna tatizo kuu.

 

[Yericko Nyerere]

Yericko: Hakuna anayesema kuwa kila ushauri upokelewe. Ninachosema mimi ni kuwa wa kweli. Huwezi katika uchaguzi wa kata 27 ukatapata viti vitatu halafu ukajisifu, huo ni uzuzu. Nilipokuwa ndani ya chama katika uchaguzi mdogo wa kata wa mwaka 2012 tulipopata kata tano kati ya kata 22 zilizokuwa zinashindaniwa niliandika makala kwenye Gazeti la Raia Mwema kuwa: CCM inasinyaa, CHADEMA inakua lakini kwa kasi ndogo. Nilijitahidi sana kuonyesha taswira kwamba tulikuwa tunakua lakini kwa kasi ndogo ambayo haitatufikisha kushinda uchaguzi mkuu wa 2015 na hivyo kulikuwa na haja ya kuongeza kasi. Katika vikao vya chama nikawa muwazi na mkali zaidi kwa kusema kwamba kiwango cha ushindi tunaopata katika chaguzi ndogo hakifanani kabisa na kiwango cha hamasa na 'kupendwa' kwetu kulikopo mitaani. Wenzangu kwenye hicho kikao unachokitaja wala hawakutaka kujadili hoja hii. Badala yake wakadharau na kusema mimi sijui chochote kwa sababu sipo kwenye field na wakatetea kwamba chama kilikuwa kinafanya vizuri.

Jambo hili tulilizungumzia pia kwenye waraka wetu wa mabadiliko, ambao nyie mlikuja kuuita wa mapinduzi na uhaini. Katika mahojiano yangu ya mwisho na Kamati Kuu ni jambo mojawapo ambalo nilihojiwa na mwendesha mashtaka mheshimiwa sana Tundu Lissu akisema kwamba nilisema uwongo kwa kusema kwamba chama kilikuwa kinakuwa kwa kasi ndogo wakati mambo yalikuwa yanaenda vizuri.

Nikasisitiza tena kwamba ukuaji wa chama hiki ni kwa kasi ndogo ambayo haiwezi kutupeleka kushinda uchaguzi mwakani. Kasi hii iliyopo sio mbaya kwa sasa kwa kuifanya CHADEMA iendelee kuwa chama kikuu cha upinzani. Unles wenzetu mnataka muendelee kuwa chama kikubwa cha upinzani na sio kushinda uchaguzi kwa maana ya kushika dola. Ndio maana sisi tuliamini kwamba uongozi uliopo umefikia saturation point na unahitaji kupumzika baada ya kufanya kazi kubwa ya kukifikisha chama hapa kilipo. Kadri wanavyoendelea ndivyo watakavyozidi kuboronga na watafika mahala hata kidogo walichokiejenga na sifa walizojijengea watazibomoa. Mkawa mbogo. Hamtaki watu wagusie mabadikiko ndani ya chama. Nyie mnadhani viongozi waliopo, na hasa mwenyekiti, ni perfect na kwamba bila yeye chama kitakufa. Endeleeni kuamini hivyo tutajadiliane tena mwakani baada ya uchaguzi mkuu.

Kitila Mkumbo

Nizidi kukupa heshima kuu katika mjadala huu kwakuweza kuenenda bila ghadhabu.

Naaaaam,

1. Hoja yako imejikita katika ushindi wa kata 3 kati ya 27, unabeza kwa nguvu kiwango hicho cha ushndi, nami nakubaliana nawe huu ni ushindi mdogo kinadharia, lakini napingana na wewe unapolikosoa hili bila uchambuzi wa kisayansi, hebu twende kisayansi ili kuipa nguvu ama kuivunja hoja yako,

Takwimu za matokeo ya uchaguzi 2010 katika kata hizo tatu yalikuwaje? Ukilinganisha matokeo ya sasa inakuwaje?

Historia ya siasa katika maeneo hayo ipoje? Jiografia ya siasa katika eneo hilo ipo?

2. Ulikuwa ukiwaaambia wenzio katika vikao vya ndani kwakutumia upembuzi wa kisayansi ama ni hivi tu kama usemavyo hapa (general) tu?

3. Unasema wazi kuwa baada ya mawazo yako kutosikilizwa na kupuuzwa ndani ya vikao "muliamua" kuunda waraka wa mabadiliko,

Je mulishawahi kuwasilisha waraka huo ndani ya vikao cha chama na ukakataliwa kabla ya kuingia kwenye mapinduzi harama kikatiba?

 

[Elli]

Dr. Mkumbo
Kukua kwa CCM ni kupata majimbo au nikujirekebisha walipojikwaaa? Kusinyaa kwa Chadema ni baada ya kuwafukuza au ni baada ya "kushindwa" uchaguzi? Je ungekuwepo Chadema leo hii ungeweza kuyaandika haya uliyoyaandika leo? mimi naona umeongozwa na dhamira dhaifu zaidi katika kuhitimisha haya na sio kama msomi.

Na mimi pia nasukumwa na dhamira yangu kuwa, unayaandika haya leo ili kutafuta "huruma" ya serikali dhidi yako baada ya kujibu barua ile ya kukutaka kujieleza kuwa kwanini unashiriki Siasa wakati hairuhusiwi. Si unakumbuka ulichokijibu? Hata hivyo sikulaumu maana umeamua kutumia theory ile ya Kwamba. if you cant fight them, join them!!

Ninajua kwa kufanya hivi na kwa mengine ambayo utayafanya unajihakikishia kubaki UDSM na kula "shavu". Hata hivyo nikushauri tu kuwa, jaribu kuandika mambo mengine ya kitaaluma zaidi achana na siasa. Asante kwa kunielewa

 

[Kobello]

NB, Dr. Kitila, ikitokea Baraza Kuu, wakapata sense na wakaamua kukuita!, na kukuomba myamalize, nakuomna sana rejea bila kinyongo, Chadema seriously needs help now than any other time!.

Pasco.

Kitila Mkumbo asirudi kwenye vyama kabisa. Labda arudi CCM kwa sababu tu za kihistoria na kizalendo.
He's more effective as a pundit.