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Can a vindictive pollster be trusted ?

Discussion in 'Uchaguzi Tanzania' started by emalau, Oct 11, 2010.

  1. e

    emalau JF-Expert Member

    Oct 11, 2010
    Joined: Apr 25, 2009
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    When I compare synovate and REDET you see no difference, the co- chairman of REDET is one of the advisers of Jakaya Kikwete, you don’t expect fair judgment out of the person employed by the contender, so the polls by REDET are null and void.

    Regarding synovate, I suppose JF members remember the saga between CHADEMA and Synovate regarding opinion polls conducted before but shrouded due to CCM influence. Chadema claimed that the opinion polls indicated that Dr. Slaa had an upper hand over Kikwete, to preserve their integrity synovate denied .

    When you put things into perspective you realize beyond doubt that synovate felt that their image had been tarnished by chadema, so they would at any cost be trying to prove chadema wrong, in other words they were vindictive.

    When you are pollster and vindictive against one of the contender there is a great likelihood that you will try to influence the outcome, how do you achieve that? By either fabricating data, or by selection bias. statistical bias is the one in which there is an error in choosing the individuals or groups to take part in a scientific study.

    It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect.You don’t expect a vindictive person to do random sampling which is a prerequisite in statistical data collection. So I would advise people to not take seriously the opinion polls as issued by REDET and synovate since they are biased pollsters, it should not in any way demoralize the contender instead it should act as an energizer to prove them wrong in 31st October.