Bagamoyo port, The Elephant in the room is still sitting around?

Linguistic

JF-Expert Member
Mar 16, 2021
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Nimekuelewa. Lakini the key message ni kwamba ktk uchumi uliopevuka kama USA au labda China ya sasa, a large sum of investment say $ 1 trillion will only produce marginal GROWTH of GDP amounting to a few percentage points. However, a relatively modest amount of say US $ 100 bn will result in DEVELOPMENT with a QUANTUM jump in GDP provided there a linkages to the domestic economy.
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For example, the construction of Bagamoyo Port will entail building a quay measuring 1 kilometer with capacity to accommodate 3 post-Panamax ships at once. My estimate is that there will be a requirement of more than 20 million tonnes of concrete. If I am correct, that translates into building materials in quantities the order of:-
1. ~ 10 million tonnes coarse aggregates;
2. ~ 7 million tonnes fine aggregates;
3. ~ 3 million tonnes cement.
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Anyway, the point is not the building engineering accuracy of the mix, but rather the order of magnitude in demand-pull forces to render a sudden and quantum leap of the supply that will have to be met. It will surely mean quantum expansion in the pertinent building materials industry with associated allied transport, logistics and support services along the supply chain to the project demand.
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Hence we think about Bagamoyo SEZ in terms of development with TRANSFORMATION as opposed to incremental growth which is marginal development of the existing trajectory of the same industries. Any capacity increase is mostly marginal and not disruptive in starting something completely different - LNG, EACOP and LNG will be hugely disruptive to marine and overland transportation, logistics.
 
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