American Elections

[Kichuguu]

At this time (April 24,2012), it is obvious that the next US president will be either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. Here at JF, we have a tradition of following up these election activities both at home and abroad, so I am opening this thread to start tracking the electoral politics of the United States for the year 2012. There are many lessons to learn out of this process: both useful and useless. I expect Obama to clarify and defend his record, lay out his vision for America and make promises, and I expect Romney to also clarify and attack Obama's record, lay his own vision for America and to also make his own promises.

The music starts now, and I guess you don't want to be the one left without a seat when the music stops!

Let me start with an obvious question although its answer at this time will merely be conjectural: between Obama and Romney, who is likely to win the next US presidency, and why?

 

[Janjaweed]

This are not very rosy for BO

 

[MD25]

This are not very rosy for BO

'This are not'
mbona unakuwa kama wale wagombea wa EALA? Sometimes piga kimya...

 

[Nyauba]

The election campaign will be hard and tough but ultimately Obama will win.

 

[BAK]

..."It is the economy stupid" If US' economy performs wonders between now and October 2012 then 'Bama is in, otherwise he is out.

 

[Pakawa]

OBAMA will win the election regardless...Republicans wamegawanyika na hilo ndilo litawapunguzia kura. Obama ana green card kwa Women, Latinos, Blacks and some Whites. Mitt atakosa kura nyingi kwa wanawake, middle and low class people, ataambulia kidogo toka kwa latinos kwa sababu ya agenda yake ya Immigration. Economy ya US imepick somehow ukilinganisha na two yrs. ago kwa hivi Democratic wanaweza kushinda. Anyways time will tell lakini i hope Obama atarudi amalizie kipindi chake.

 

[kanganyoro]

Tusubiri tuone

 

[Ng`wanakidiku]

I am sure Obama will win because Mitt Romney policies favours those rich for example he want to repeal the Obamacare which most low income earner need it so much, and this system of universal health care works very well in Canada and UK for example. But the main point that will pull down Romney is his strategy of defending the rich while Obama do speak for the poor and needy, so at the end of the day the poor are more than the rich.

 

[BAK]

Analysis: As Europe goes, so goes Obama

By Alan Silverleib, CNN
April 25, 2012 -- Updated 1519 GMT (2319 HKT)

President Barack Obama's election hopes in the fall may be linked to the recurring economic crisis in Europe.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Obama's poll standing is closely tied to economic performance
• U.S. election outcome could depend on changes in Europe's economy
• Europe's economy could be at a tipping point this year

• Labeling Romney a right winger may not work if the global economy implodes

Washington (CNN) -- President Obama's opponents like nothing more than tying him to a socialist Europe, the bogeyman of today's American right. Whatever the merits of their claims policy-wise, they might be onto something from a campaign perspective.

As it turns out, the fate of Obama's re-election bid could hinge more on what happens in France or Spain than Ohio over the next six months. Europe's economic woes could push America's soft recovery into reverse, and Mitt Romney into the White House.

The first three months of 2012 couldn't have been better for the president. Romney was pushed to the right by disenchanted Republican primary voters while the U.S. economy gathered steam. Roughly 600,000 jobs were created, unemployment edged down by 0.3% and the Dow jumped more than 8%. The broader S&P 500 rose by a whopping 12%.

U.K. in recession for 2nd time since 2008
Improving economic conditions were reflected in the polls. The number of registered voters who said the economy is in good shape rose by 13% between January and March, according to the CNN/ORC International Poll. The late March survey showed Obama beating Romney by 11 percentage points among registered voters. An average of several notable polls conducted around the same time showed a slightly tighter race, with Obama up 6%.

Fast forward a couple of weeks. An April 13-15 CNN/ORC International Poll showed Obama's edge over Romney dropping to 9 points. You can chalk that up to the sampling error, but CNN's most recent "poll of polls" showed Obama's advantage dropping to 3 points.

What happened?
First, according to several analysts, there was a natural post-primary tightening of the race as disenchanted conservatives began to fall into line behind Romney. Arch-conservatives will never love the former Massachusetts governor, but intense Obama hatred is expected to bring them out in November.

Romney's "positions are perfectly fine with the base," argues veteran GOP strategist Charlie Black, who is now offering counsel to Romney. "The organized conservative movement just needs to have some communication and encouragement to come on board."

Second, the economy stumbled. There was a jump in unemployment claims, and each of the market indexes logged their biggest weekly declines of the year. A revision in monthly employment data showed employers adding only 120,000 jobs in March -- badly missing expectations. There was a poor housing starts report, and prices at the pump remained stubbornly high.
The economy remains the dominant issue this year, and voters are now split on which candidate is better able to help spur a stronger recovery: 44%of voters say Obama is more likely to get the economy moving, while 42% choose Romney, according to the April CNN/ORC survey. This naturally translates to a tight horse race.

This is also where Obama finds himself at Europe's mercy. The U.S. economy is currently on autopilot. A sharply polarized Congress and a tapped out Federal Reserve can't do much more to stimulate the economy this year. European policymakers, however, could take a number of steps felt in the United States, not all of them positive from Obama's perspective.

The rise of Europe's far-right?
Depending on your point of view, harsh austerity measures or debt-driven market jitters are suffocating one of America's most critical economic partners. Unemployment in the eurozone is north of 10%, and many economists expect it to climb higher this year.

While the problems of smaller countries like Greece are well known to the average American voter, economies of larger countries like Italy are also struggling. New questions are now being raised about France, where leading Socialist presidential candidate François Hollande is campaigning on a higher spending agenda completely at odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's debt-driven priorities.

The kicker may prove to be Spain, which is reeling from an unfathomable 24% unemployment rate and one of the world's worst housing busts. Robert Samuelson notes in Monday's Washington Post that "if Spain's crisis deepens Europe's recession, it could tip the entire world economy into a stubborn slump." He also notes the negative impact such a downturn could have on Obama's re-election chances.

If Europe -- one-fifth of the global economy -- goes down, America goes down with it. And so could Obama. Romney -- known for business turnarounds -- is well positioned to appeal to the same affluent suburban white voters who flocked to Obama when the economy imploded in 2008. Tack those voters on to an angry conservative base and an alienated white working class, and you have a recipe for a Romney win.

Zakaria: Too much austerity in Europe
Obama's team has switched strategies now, labeling Romney a hard core right winger instead of a flip flopper extraordinaire. But it's questionable at best whether that strategy will work against the backdrop of a severely stumbling economy. Faced with a lousy economy in 1980, Jimmy Carter tried to pin the "crazy right winger" tag on Ronald Reagan. Carter ended up with 49 electoral votes.

Tune out all the noise about "mommy wars" and the gender gap. Watch the economy and, more specifically, watch Europe. That may tell you all you need to know about election night in November.

 

[Jasusi]

The Romney problem is that he has an uphill battle to convince women voters, and he has a problem with Latino voters.
For Obama, if the economy continues to improve, as indications are now, he will easily be re elected.

 

[Kichuguu]

Mimi kwa mtazamo wangu, naona kuwa Obama anagwaya sana kampeini za mwaka huu unless kama ameficha mbinu zake azitumie kwa kustukiza. Ninaona kama vile kampeini zake amezianza kwa kuzunguka zunguka kwa magurupu ya watu; wanawake, na sasa wanafunzi, na sijui labda atazunguka kwa latino n.k. Kimsingi nilitegemea awe anavaana na Romney ana kwa ana kuhusu swala la uchumi. Romney akidai kuwa anajua uchumi na atakuza uchumi kwa haraka, Obama naye ajibu mara moja kuwa uchumi anaojua siyo wa kimataifa ila anaahidi lolote ili achaguliwe kwa vile hatafanya lolote la kubadilisha uchumi wa dunia kwa kasi anayotaka ghafla namna hiyo; njia anayoahidi ndiyo iliyokuwa inatumiwa na Bush na tulianguka. Amkumbushe kuwa dunia ya leo yenye uwazi katika biashara siyo ile ya ndotoni kuamini kuwa marekani itajifanyia lolote inalotaka na kupeta kirahisi.

 

[BAK]

The Romney problem is that he has an uphill battle to convince women voters, and he has a problem with Latino voters.
For Obama, if the economy continues to improve, as indications are now, he will easily be re elected.

You've a point Mkuu Jasusi. There is also a possibility the turn out of black voters will be lower as compared to 2008, a huge disadvantage to 'Bama's re election campaign.

 

[Boniface Evarist]

Sadly I do ... those who call themselves Conservatives are still splitting the party by insisting on following the status quo. When dealing with the devil they know and the devil they don't historically the American voter will choose the one they know. We can see this in the polls as the Obama is still ahead.

 

[Kichuguu]

CNN's Zakaria pointed out one strong fact that I wonder why the Obama's team is shying away from. Austerity economic policies proposed by the Romney team and the whole of the Republican party do not work in today's economy. The world economy is no longer favoring isolation, and austerity measures do not work in a globally controlled economy. The path followed now by the US under Obama is still the best despite its slow recovery rate. The path proposed by Romney and the RNC team is quite same as that followed by Cameron and the UK conservatives, and for sure it has proved to be catastrophically failure.

Obama should stop campaigning on minor things like student loans and taxing the rich, and instead focus on a bigger view of the national economic future. Americans are more interested in future success; he has to educate them that the world economic playground has changed, and his policies align well with that new playground. Reaganian and Thatcherian economic policies that worked well in the 80s do not apply today.

 

[PETER NYAMWERO]

I was watching MNBC TV they were explain that Obama has a highest percentage to win because there is 227 PROVINCE WHICH CAN WIN and Romney has 197 but other province which have remain it will depend on their campaign where Obama has a high percent to reach the required province 270.

 

[Chamoto]

if the economy continues to improve, as indications are now, he will easily be re elected.

Huyu anayeya tuu mwaka huu

 

[BAK]

[h=1]Mitt Romney vs. stubborn facts[/h]By Donna Brazile, CNN Contributor
July 27, 2012 -- Updated 1357 GMT (2157 HKT)

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Donna Brazile: Mitt Romney doesn't want to talk about the facts of his business record
• Brazile: So which part of Romney's biography can we evaluate?
• She says Romney's ties with Bain Capital are inconsistent with what he's telling the public

• Brazile: Facts and the Romney campaign have a difficult relationship these days

Editor's note: Donna Brazile, a CNN contributor and a Democratic strategist, is vice chairwoman for voter registration and participation at the Democratic National Committee. She is a nationally syndicated columnist, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and author of "Cooking with Grease." She was manager for the Gore-Lieberman presidential campaign in 2000.

(CNN) -- John Adams once said, "facts are stubborn things." These days, another Massachusetts politician has found that saying to ring especially true.

While it's still unclear how Mitt Romney can be the CEO, chairman, president and sole shareholder of Bain Capital, a company that he claims no responsibility for, it's become increasingly evident that candidate Romney simply doesn't want to talk about the facts of his business record.
In an interview with CNN's Piers Morgan, Romney suggested that to question his experiences is to "attack success." If this is the case, and if we're also not supposed to talk above a whisper about Mitt's record as governor, including his signature accomplishment in health care reform, then which parts of his biography remain on the table?

Donna Brazile



Romney clearly prefers his largely undisclosed experiences in the private sector over his publicly poor record in Boston. At every turn, Romney and his campaign have attempted to steer the discussion toward business matters for just this reason.

John King: Why is 1999 so important in 2012?
But when the Washington Post took him up on it last month and published an article headlined "Romney's Bain Capital invested in companies that moved jobs overseas," the Romney campaign was caught flatfooted. The Post found that Bain Capital, the firm Romney spent much of his professional life building up, had invested in companies that had not only shipped jobs overseas -- a practice of some concern to working- and middle-class Americans -- but had pioneered the practice.

R
omney defends Bain departure date

More questions on Romney's Bain tenure
Romney's campaign pushed back hard, claiming that the Post had its facts wrong. The campaign met with the Post's editors and demanded a retraction, claiming that Romney had left Bain in 1999, supposedly before the outsourcing investment began. The Washington Post listened to the Romney side of the story but stood its ground.

Now we know why. The Boston Globe reported two weeks ago that Romney had signed official documents claiming to be the president and CEO of Bain Capital as late as 2002, when the company was actively building up firms that outsourced American jobs. He didn't just say this casually at some dinner party; he swore it was the truth on Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

What did the Romney campaign do this time? It hit the "repeat" button and demanded a retraction from the Globe. Who are you going to believe, the campaign asked its hometown paper, me or your lying eyes? Once again, the investigative journalists stood by their reporting.

Since the Globe story, the hits have kept coming. The AP reported this week that Romney stayed in "regular contact" with Bain during his so-called absence, "personally signing or approving a series of corporate and legal documents through the spring of 2001." Several sources are now saying that Romney made repeated trips to Boston to meet with Bain executives during this period, even though he recently told CBS's Jan Crawford that he doesn't "recall even coming back once to go to a Bain or a management meeting" during the period in question.

So despite what the Romney campaign claims, media interest in this story has nothing to do with attacking personal success in the private sector. It has nothing to do with avoiding the real issues of the campaign.

It has everything to do with attempting to get to the bottom of a situation in which what a candidate is saying seems to have come unglued from the stubborn facts.

Opinion: Why won't Romney release more tax returns?
Americans know that a level playing field empowers a successful economy. You want to talk about soaking the rich? Mitt Romney's father, George Romney, paid an effective tax rate of nearly 37% in 1967. The elder Romney didn't complain and released his tax returns to prove his compliance with the law of the land he wanted to lead. In 2010, Mitt Romney's tax rate bobbed and weaved its way below 15% -- and we know that only because the public had to pry his return (he has released only a full one) out of his clenched hands.

Even more fascinating than the fact that Romney's father released 12 years' worth when he ran for president in 1968 is the reason why. "One year could be a fluke," the elder Romney said, "perhaps done for show."

This country has a noble habit of withholding elected office from people who have trouble with the facts. Romney could end these discussions overnight by releasing his tax returns, as he has been called on to do by Republicans like Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley, former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.

Until he makes peace with the facts, Romney will be stuck at the intersection of what is both a character issue and a policy issue. If Romney won't stand by his record at Bain, just like he won't stand by his record as governor of Massachusetts, how exactly is the American public supposed to evaluate the candidate? And if he won't disclose his own relationship with tax loopholes and offshore tax havens, leaving voters more questions than answers, how can the American people trust him to reform our tax code in a way that closes loopholes, eliminates free-riding and ensures that everyone is playing by the same rules?

Facts and the Romney campaign have a difficult relationship these days. But they do share one thing in common: They're both stubborn.

 

[chash]

My opinion. Obama could win the popular vote but loose the electoral college votes and therefore loose the white house. This is how al gore lost to bush. However as an Obama fan i wish romney many scandals, gaffes and everything that will make him loose.