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With 70% Voters' turnout, Slaa Wins; Less than that Kikwete Wins - My Prediction:

Discussion in 'Uchaguzi Tanzania' started by Mzee Mwanakijiji, Oct 28, 2010.

  1. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

    #1
    Oct 28, 2010
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    The Victory for Dr. Slaa depends on the high voters turn out. This is important because it will make it very hard to manipulate votes in one polling area, more votes less vote manipulation because votes will cancel each other out by higher turnout.

    But even more, a high turn out will bring more independent voters compared to lower turn out. If the turn out is around less or around 60 percent that will favor CCM because CCM has about 4 million of whom about 3/4 will vote for him. With lower turn out but higher CCM's turn out Kikwete wins at about 65 - 69 percent range.

    However, if more people turn out at around 70 and nothing happen between now and Sunday to make people change their mind (assuming JK's live session on Friday is not inspiring to the voters) then Dr. Slaa will win this election by about 55-60 percent of all votes.

    What I'm saying is this, if you want CCM candidate to win, you know WHAT TO DO (i mean you can vote for MP and ur councilor); BUT if you really want Dr. Slaa to win well do the needful.. nenda kapige kura!

    No matter who wins Tanzania will be there the next morning, so DON'T PANIC!

    With the Parliamentary seats I totally believe that Chadema will suprise some bigwigs just like what happened during the primaries within CCM. Some mighty politicians will FALL. I believe Chadema will pick between 90-110 seats. All depending on voters turn out at the same ration as the presidential votes.

    That is my prediction and I'm sticking to it.
     
  2. Edson

    Edson JF-Expert Member

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    tunashinda kwa % 78 sisi chadema

    hivi mkuu umeshafika kwa ajili ya octoba 31?
     
  3. Teamo

    Teamo JF-Expert Member

    #3
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    nimekubali hapo babu!

    karibu supu ya mbuzi huku vingunguti kiembe-mbuzi
     
  4. K

    Kituko JF-Expert Member

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    hapo kwenye Nyekundu, is it possible?
    maana kwenye post yako ya nyuma ulishawahi sema ni vigumu kwa wizi wa kura kutokea na ukaomba ushahidi uletwe. labda umeshapata huo ushahidi, basi ingekuwa vizuri utuwekee ili tujue na tuchukue tahadhari
     
  5. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

    #5
    Oct 28, 2010
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    naamini tutashinda, leo niko Njombe, huku kwa Nymbo, hali ninayoiona, inanisisimua, natoka machozi ya furaha, naamini juhudi zetu atimae zimelipa, Mungu ni Mwema , kila ninakopita wananitia moyo kua watapiga Kura ya mabadiliko....
     
  6. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

    #6
    Oct 28, 2010
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    nilisema ni vigumu.. na nimeweka ushahidi jana kwanini ni vigumu kuiba kura. Hivi kweli ingekuwa rahisi hivyo JK angehangaika hivi? Msichojua ni kuwa wakati CCM wamekubali mabadiliko ya utaratibu wa kuhesabu kura na kutengenezwa kwa mfumo wa kisasa wa kukusanya matokeo (kama nilivyowawekea hapa jana) hawakutegemea kuwa mgombea mwingine angekuwa ni Dr. Slaa na ambacho hawakukitegemea kabisa kabisa ni mwitikio wa wananchi kwa Dr. Slaa.

    Kiilichowaharibu zaidi ni kuwa tuhuma na madongo ya awali waliyarusha mapema mno kiasi kwamba yalishindwa kuganda. Lakini unyasi uliovunja mgongo wa punda ni ile ya ITV. Sasa hivi JK na wengine wote wako at the mercy of the voters. Ndio maana haya maneno ya "kura zitaibwa" yanarudiwa rudiwa kisaikolojia (pyschological manipulation) ili watu wasiende kupiga kura wakijua kura zitaibwa tu.. guess who benefit if people don't show up to vote?
     
  7. Teamo

    Teamo JF-Expert Member

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    sasa unaporudi simama hapo makambako ingia baa moja inaitwa DURBAN....!kuna mhudumu hapo mwambie akuelekeza Baba Gift anaishi wapi,then wakulete tupange mikakati na sherehe ya kumuapisha Dk Slaa
     
  8. Teamo

    Teamo JF-Expert Member

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    mi sina hiana babu!...nakubali kabisa.Haya chukua hii:
    The Following User Says Thank You to Mzee Mwanakijiji For This Useful Post:

    Baba Gift (Today) ​
     
  9. The Finest

    The Finest JF-Expert Member

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    In parliamentary seats i am sure and i know Chadema will do wonders but all depending on voters turn out lets see how it goes
     
  10. Rutashubanyuma

    Rutashubanyuma JF-Expert Member

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    Oct 28, 2010
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    Kwa hili tupo wote na utabiri wangu ni viti 106 kwa Chadema............
    Lakini hili hatupo wote.............
    Sababu zangu za kutofautiana na wewe hapo ni kuwa wana-CCM wengi safari hii hawapigi kura kwa sababu wamekwisha kukatishwa tamaa na mambo yafuatayo:-

    a) Mahudhurio kwenye mikutano ya Dr. Slaa na Chadema imewapa ishara ya kuwa mwaka huu siyo wao na wengi wao ambao hawako tayari kumpigia Dr. Slaa na Chadema wanaona kheri wakae majumbani tu.

    b) Hizi kashfa za ufisadi zimeitikisa CCM vibaya mno na ya kuwa karibu nusu wa wanachama wa CCM watakaokwenda kupiga kura watavipigia vyama vya upinzani kwa mgawanyiko wa theluthi mbili Chadema na theluthi moja CUF.........Usifikiri kuwa mwanachama wa CCM ni mtumwa wa chama hicho hata kama hakina mwelekeo wa uongozi bora ila wengi wako huko CCM kwa sababu za kiitikadi ya ujamaa na kujitegemea na hii ya itikadi ya ufisadi imewachefua wengi.

    c) Kwenye uchaguzi huu kama hakuna ufisadi hakuna atakayevuka asilimia sitini na hata Dr. Slaa ninamtabiria atapata asilimia kati ya 52 hadi 56 na JK hataweza kuvuka kati ya 32 hadi 35 asilimia katika mazingira ambayo hakuna wizi wa kura suala ambalo hatuwezi kulikadiria litakuwa na sauti gani katika uchaguzi huu..................Yeyote atakayevuka asilimia sitini huyo ameiiba kura kutokana na tathmini yangu......Hivyo makadirio yako ya asilimia 65-69 kwa JK yanaongozwa na kushawishiwa na tathmin zai mezani za "SYNOVATE" kulikoni tathmini ya hali halisi ilivyo.........

    d) Kwa tathmini yangu mahudhurio hafifu yatakiathiri CCM na haswa JK kulikoni watakavyoathirika Chadema na Dr. Slaa kwa sababu nilizozitaja awali.
     
  11. S

    Selemani JF-Expert Member

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    It will be a beautiful day for this country if Chadema pick 100 competent wabunge. That is what we need for a vibrant economic development and check/balances. As far as Dr. Slaa. He doesn't know how to govern na WaTanzania wote tunalijua hilo.
     
  12. Teamo

    Teamo JF-Expert Member

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    it goes WITHOUT REASONING kwamba chadema watalishangaza bunge na ''dakta'' kikwete atakufa kwa stroke mwakani maanake ni ''rahisi'' pekee ambae atakuwa ameongoza kwa msimu mmoja na kutolea kwa aibu
     
  13. Teamo

    Teamo JF-Expert Member

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    there you go!.......haya kabla sijakujibu lolote hebu kipongeze kwa hii:
    The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Rutashubanyuma For This Useful Post:

    Baba Gift (Today), Mzee Mwanakijiji (Today) ​
     
  14. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

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    kwa umoja wetu tutashinda, kwa majungu yao wataanguka na kuangamia, tukapige kura ya mabadiliko, Tusikubali kudhurumiwa.
     
  15. The Finest

    The Finest JF-Expert Member

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    MK hiyo ya kura kuibiwa i agree with you have a look at this

    [​IMG]
     
  16. u

    urasa JF-Expert Member

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    Oct 28, 2010
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    lets vote for the changes
     
  17. F

    Fanfa JF-Expert Member

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    Oct 28, 2010
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    MKJJ,
    Uchambuzi wako uko makini na uko karibu sana na ukweli na hali halisi ya kisiasa. Umenikuna sana uliposema kuwa kama wananchi watajitokeza kupiga kura kwa wingi uwezekano wa kushinda kwa Dr. Slaa ni kati ya 55%-60% hilo sina ubishi nalo.

    Maana mimi na wenzangu baada ya kupita majimbo 73 ni dhahiri tathimini yetu imeonyesha kuwa Dr. Slaa anaweza kushinda kwa kati ya 51% - 53%. Atakayebisha na abishe lakini huo ndo ukweli japo kama niliyosema hapo juu ni tathimini ya majimbo 73 tu. Hatujui majimbo ambayo hatukufanya kazi hiyo hali ikoje.
     
  18. T

    The King JF-Expert Member

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    Mie katika kampeni zangu za chini kwa chini wengi wa wapiga kura wa dr Slaa na Chadema hawana motisha sana kwa kudai kwamba "Hata akishinda thithiem wataiba kura" au "Hawezi kushinda" sasa katika siku hizi tatu leo hadi Jumamosi tuwahimize watu wajitokeze kwa wingi sana kwenda kupiga kura na tuwahimize umuhimu wa kusubiri hata kama kuna foleni kubwa sana mpaka wafanikiwe katika kutimiza haki yao ya kikatiba
     
  19. Bourgeoisie

    Bourgeoisie JF-Expert Member

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    Sasa Naiona style yako nzuri ya uhamasishaji uliyoitumia kwa kuwaondolea watu fikra za kuibiwa kura ambazo zingewafanya kutokwenda kupiga kura.Ila nahofu wachache watakuwa wameifahamu kipindi ulipoiweka ile post. Lakini naamini pia kwa majibu haya watu watatambua nini kili/kinamaanishwa.
     
  20. Augustine Moshi

    Augustine Moshi JF-Expert Member

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    You have some kind of a weird logic Selemani. You seem to believe that only those that have governed before know how to govern. In that logic, nobody should govern for the first time!

    But we all know how well Mwalimu governed for the first time. We also know that Slaa has been an extremely good MP. He has furthermore proved himself in the course of the present campaign.

    Let me ask Mzee Mwanakijiji not to worry about JK's Friday media blitz. It will be completely obliterated by Slaa's Saturday Campaign Rally in Dar.
     
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