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WIKILEAKS: troubles at home for Kikwete? Signs of a weakening domestic position.

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by MAMA POROJO, Sep 19, 2011.


    MAMA POROJO JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
    Joined: Nov 22, 2007
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    [FONT=&amp]C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 000737 [/FONT]


    [FONT=&amp]E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2018 [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]TAGS: [/FONT][FONT=&amp]PGOV[/FONT][FONT=&amp]PREL[/FONT][FONT=&amp]TZ[/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]REF: A. A. DAR 708 [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]B. B. DAR 461 [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]C. C. DAR 722 [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]D. D. DAR 555 [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]E. E. DAR 634 [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]Classified By: ambassador mark a. green for reason 1.4 (d) [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]1. (C) Summary. A number of recent events indicate that [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]President Kikwete faces increased domestic pressure, [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]especially from within his ruling CCM but also from the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]public. Several times over the past months, the GOT - and [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]CCM - have made missteps or miscalculations that seem to [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]betray a loss of confidence. These stumbles include the ban [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]on a small news outlet for naming alleged plotters against [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Kikwete's standing for a second term, CCM's by-election loss [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]after a major campaign effort, and the disappointment of [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Kikwete's address to parliament. At the same time, the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]chorus of public and private expressions of discontent over [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]his leadership has grown louder. Although a one-term Kikwete [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]presidency remains a remote possibility, it is no longer [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]unthinkable. End summary. [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]2. (C) The most recent signal of trouble within CCM is the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]GOT's decision to ban Mwanahalisi (ref a). The story that [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]occasioned the ban described a plot by a CCM faction to limit [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Kikwete to one term. The story rehashed a rumor printed [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]several months earlier, but it was the naming of several [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]alleged conspirators that earned the GOT's ire. The Minister [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]of Information cited the naming of Kikwete's son Ramadhani as [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]one of the reasons for the ban, but we have also heard that [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]it was the appearance of Minister for Home Affairs Lawrence [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Masha on the list that caused more concern. Masha is a close [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]associate of former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, who left [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]office under a cloud in February but remains a significant [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]power broker and financier for CCM. [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]3. (C) Rather than letting the story pass quietly, the GOT's [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]ban ensured that the content would be picked up by all the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]major newspapers and other media. Further, the ban had the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]immediate effect of tarnishing the GOT's image as a proponent [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]of media freedom, which had improved significantly in [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Kikwete's time in office. The overreaction to the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Mwanahalisi story follows another recent example of [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]unnecessary GOT heavy-handedness, the April arrest of several [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Pemban elders who signed a petition seeking greater autonomy [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]for Pemba (ref b). [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]4. (C) CCM's loss in the Tarime by-election (ref c) now [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]appears like a bad gamble. Rather than conceding one of [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]opposition Chadema's few strongholds, CCM dispatched its top [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]leadership and expended considerable resources in its [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]fruitless effort to regain the seat. One of the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]explanations we have heard about the results, including from [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]CCM sources, is that CCM itself was divided about selecting a [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]candidate, and in the end chose a man without close ties to [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]the area. The fact that CCM insiders are willing to discuss [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]internal divisions is notable, since traditionally CCM [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]internal workings have been notably opaque. We have also [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]heard the assertion that Kikwete sought to quiet CCM factions [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]dissatisfied with his leadership by delivering a victory in [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Tarime; if that were indeed the case, the effort backfired. [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]5. (C) Kikwete also gave himself a public black eye with his [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]August address to parliament (ref d). Expectations ran high, [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]stoked by government and CCM, that he would use the platform [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]to announce significant steps to move forward the campaign [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]against corruption. Instead, he equivocated and pushed back [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]the deadline for action. While there may yet be indictments [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]of those involved in corruption scandals, the poor public [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]handling has stirred discontent among the public (and donors). [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]6. (C) Criticism of Kikwete for ignoring Tanzania's problems [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]has become more frequent. In mid-October, prominent Muslim [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]and Christian clerics called on Tanzania to reduce his [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]international travels in order to turn attention to domestic [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]issues. Opposition leaders have offered the same criticism, [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]and Chadema used Kikwete's foreign travel as a talking point [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]in its Tarime campaign. In a different manifestation of [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]discontent, highly unusual for Tanzania, Kikwete's motorcade [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]was stoned by angry villagers during an official visit to the [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]oft-neglected Mbeya region. [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]7. (C) Apart from corruption, the main background to these [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]criticisms is a perception that Tanzania's economic [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]performance is lacking. Inflation has risen into double [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]digits for the first time in Kikwete's presidency. The [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]nationwide Household Budget Survey (not yet released [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]officially) shows that despite a decrease in the percentage [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]of poor Tanzanians, the number living in poverty has [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]increased. [/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]¶[/FONT][FONT=&amp]8. (C) Taken together, these events indicate growing pressure [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]on Kikwete and reinforce the perception that his capacity to [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]push an agenda has been weakened (see also ref e). Because [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Tanzania's opposition parties remain relatively weak and (so [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]far) divided, the only serious political challenges Kikwete [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]faces will come from within CCM. The possibility that a [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]faction in CCM could gain enough leverage to force Kikwete [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]not to stand for a second term remains remote, but now bears [/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]more serious consideration. [/FONT]

  2. Feedback

    Feedback JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    The weakest president in history.
  3. mikatabafeki

    mikatabafeki JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    Lakini bado tu tunaambiwa uchumi wa nchi umekua kwa kasi kubwa kulicko developing country yoyote ile
  4. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    majimoto ile ajali ya zanzibar hujaizungumzia kwenye thread yako kule..
  5. bi mkora

    bi mkora JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    My president is handsome.

    NEW TANZANIA Senior Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    RED ccm hawana macho awalioni hilo ni kama tatizo wanajua watawadanganya watanzania kama siku zote
    BLUE kikwete kaiangamiza hii nchi kwa kufumbia macho matatizo ya nchi yetu, lakini good NEWS ni kwamba kawaisha kifo cha CCM regea RED
  7. s

    samoramsouth Senior Member

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  8. Kaa la Moto

    Kaa la Moto JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    Kumbe hata USA wanajua kwamba we have a weak president ever?

    VUVUZELA JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    Kuna wenzio wanamsifia eti ni handsome ha!
  10. Habdavi

    Habdavi JF-Expert Member

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    how do both of them feel (Obama, Kikwete) when they hand shake, discuss issues in the white house, in light of these revelations on the weak side of our president? They all know he is weak in pushing forth agendas, are they really going to reach a win-win concesus or will it be the direct opposite?

    VUVUZELA JF-Expert Member

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    Si mpaka apate huo muda wa kuonana na Barry then wa-shake hands
  12. O

    Omr JF-Expert Member

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    Kwani Obama mwenyewe si alikuja na gear ya nguvu lakini sasa ni uharo tu. Wazungu wanajuta kwa nini walimchagua.
  13. Alfred Daud Pigangoma

    Alfred Daud Pigangoma Verified User

    Sep 19, 2011
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    Hii nayo kali....... Tusubiri kuzikwa baharini ili hata makaburi yetu yasionekane......
  14. mashikolomageni

    mashikolomageni JF-Expert Member

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    Tazama Hii ndiyo utatujua watanzania tunamuona mkwele kama handsome na sio kiongozi
  15. m

    mama kubwa JF-Expert Member

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    du hii kali!

    CAMARADERIE JF-Expert Member

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  17. Makindi N

    Makindi N JF-Expert Member

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    "Tanzania - one of the fastest growing economies". Kikwete once boasted of that........ Kazi kweli kweli..............

    SILENT WHISPER JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    aache kuongeza mabibi .....awaze kuongeza thamani ya shilingi???
  19. e

    ebrah JF-Expert Member

    Sep 19, 2011
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    though detail ni za zamani but im glad kuwa zipo ulimwenguni kote, dalili nzuri ya maangamizi ya ccm