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Wikileaks: Ambassador Adadi Rajabu on Mugabe and ZANU-PF

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by EMT, Sep 29, 2011.

  1. EMT

    EMT JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Sep 29, 2011
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    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000977

    SIPDIS

    AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH
    NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2019
    TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI TZ

    SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR RAY'S VISIT WITH TANZANIAN AMBASSADOR

    TO ZIM

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D

    1. (C) SUMMARY: According to the Tanzanian Ambassador to Zimbabwe, ZANU-PF, as a revolutionary party, has failed in its efforts to govern Zimbabwe. Mugabe has committed what could be a grievous error by not focusing on a successor, and this could lead ultimately to chaos in the event of his sudden death. The military is not likely to stand by should that happen, and will probably put Emmerson Mnangagwa forward as leader because the securocrats do not like Vice President Joice Mujuru.

    MDC-M head Arthur Mutambara is a politician without a platform who cannot be trusted, and by siding with ZANU-PF against MDC-T in Maputo he prevented any progress toward reform. South Africa's Zuma has clearly lost patience with Mugabe, but divisions within SADC limit the actions that can be taken. Except for Zuma himself, Botswana, and Tanzania, there is little stomach in SADC for criticizing Mugabe or ZANU-PF.

    Right now, with Mugabe stalling on the agreements made, SADC's integrity is on the line and it faces the dilemma of what to do in the event of no progress on the GPA and SADC Communique. The people of Zimbabwe are tolerant, but their patience will someday come to an end, and that could result in chaos and spill over into the region.

    END SUMMARY.

    2. (C) In a December 15 meeting with Tanzanian Ambassador Adadi Rajabu, I was treated to one of the most pessimistic views of Zimbabwe I have heard from African diplomats here. He said that ZANU-PF seems to be still in revolutionary mode, and had completely failed at governing the country. Robert Mugabe at one time appeared to be looking at Joice Mujuru as a possible successor, but hardliners within the party labeled
    her and her husband as too close to the U.S. and UK and he switched his attention to Emmerson Mnangagwa.

    It isn't clear, though, if this means he sees Mnangagwa as a successor, or if this is just another example of his continuing manipulation of his party. Should he suddenly die or be incapacitated, however, there will be chaos. Rajabu believes that those who think the military's professionalism will keep it from intervening in politics are wrong. He thinks that the military would, in such a case, put Mnangagwa forward as leader because the military chiefs and other hardliners don't trust Mujuru.

    3. (C) Rajabu had strong comments about MDC-M leader Arthur Mutambara. He said that Mutambara is a politician without a platform or principles, and cautioned against believing anything he says. He said that at the Maputo meeting, Mutambara sabotaged any chances of positive progress by siding with ZANU-PF against Tsvangirai.

    4. (C) South African President Zuma has clearly lost patience with Mugabe, according to Rajabu. He said that at the Maputo meeting, Zuma was blunt and took several minutes to calm down. Unfortunately, he is saddled with a divided SADC, with only Botswana and Tanzania willing to take a stance against ZANU-PF. The other SADC members, for varying reasons, will not criticize Mugabe publicly. He expressed surprise that the South African facilitators reported progress in recent talks, because he has seen none. He said the only concession Mugabe is likely to make (and that not until next year after the holidays) is on provincial governors.

    When I pointed out to him that it appears that he might be looking for a way to avoid doing even that, he Qmight be looking for a way to avoid doing even that, he agreed that I was likely correct. The question then is what SADC will do about the lack of progress. SADC's integrity is on the line, he said. It is bad enough that nothing was done after the deadline established in Maputo was not met, but if nothing is done about no further progress, it will look extremely bad for SADC.

    5. (C) Rajabu described the people of Zimbabwe as patient and tolerant in the face of unimaginable hardships. But, that patience will one day come to an end, he said, and then there could be chaos. He pointed out that if this was West Africa, there would already be general chaos and a violent reaction to the government's ineptness and abuse. The results of past elections, despite ZANU-PF's efforts to swing things its way, show that the people in this country are not as ignorant or uninformed as some might think.

    In the first election, even though ZANU-PF spread money and agricultural inputs throughout the countryside, and felt assured of a win, MDC got more votes. This demonstrates he said, that Zimbabweans are politically aware and can only be manipulated to a degree. He doesn't believe the country is ready yet for another election, because if it is scheduled too soon there is likely to be even more violence and manipulation than last time.

    6. (C) COMMENT: Rajabu said that while he is probably not as much of a target for criticism as the U.S. and UK ambassadors, due to his country's stance and his own actions, he is definitely not liked by ZANU-PF. Because of the history of Zimbabwe and Tanzania, however, they are forced to treat him with respect. His views on the likely role of the military in the event of an abrupt Mugabe departure are significant. Not enough attention has been paid to what the military might do, and arguments that they will stand idly by while politicians fight over Mugabe's bones don't take into account that regardless of their professionalism, African militaries have a history of stepping in to fill political vacuums.

    END COMMENT.

    RAY

    Cable Viewer
     
  2. TIMING

    TIMING JF-Expert Member

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    aisee... adadi has impressed me alot on this one

    thanks mkwe
     
  3. EMT

    EMT JF-Expert Member

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    Nae huwa anatuma cables home au anawaelezea mabalozi wengine na kuishia hapo hapo.
     
  4. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

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    That is a good question. Alikuwa na lazima gani ya kuwamwagia Wamarekani yote hayo? Ni yake yale ya Kapuya kupeleka siri za jeshi letu kwa balozi wa Marekani.
     
  5. EMT

    EMT JF-Expert Member

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    Labda tu assume huwa anatuma cables home. Lakini huwa zinafanyiwa kazi kama wanavyofanya Wamarekani?
     
  6. Nyambala

    Nyambala JF-Expert Member

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    Hii ni kweli tupu na ndicho hasa kinachowasumbua Zim!
     
  7. The Finest

    The Finest JF-Expert Member

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    Inabidi Wazimbabwe wafanye maamuzi magumu hapo kwenye blue that is what is eating them up
     
  8. M

    MAMENGAZI JF-Expert Member

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    Mugabe akisoma hii patachimbika, alivyomkorofi yule babu!!!! hata hivyo kashajichokea bana asepe aachie wengine.
     
  9. EMT

    EMT JF-Expert Member

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    Atamtimua kama alivyomtimua yule balozi wa Libya.
     
  10. Lambardi

    Lambardi JF-Expert Member

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    Huyo Adadi akiulizwa kuhus rais wake na wamarekani(labda alishaulizwa) atasema ana weza govern his country??Wikileaks leta mambo tujue yaliyomo kama Dr Hosea alivyomnanga boss wake!
     
  11. MTAZAMO

    MTAZAMO JF-Expert Member

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    Adadi Rajabu ni Kachero aliyebobea.ni mtu makini sana.nafikiri Kikwete amefanya vizuri kumpa hiyo kazi tena in a right place! Amejibu vizuri sana na kwa hoja makini.nashauri mh Rais awape nafasi na Makachero kama hawa na sio wanajeshi tu.kuna watu wamesomeshwa kwa gharama kubwa sana issue za kiintelejinsia alafu mwisho wanaachwa tu kumbe pengine taaluma yao inaweza kutusaidia sana kidiplomasia na kijasusi hasa kwa nafasi za kibalozi.
     
  12. M

    Mlugaluga Member

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    Wamarekani wachokonozi.
     
  13. Fullfigadiva J

    Fullfigadiva J Member

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    Auncle Bob wa zim akiipata hii Balozi wetu atakuwa na wakati mgumu sana. Lakini hapa ni ukweli mtupu hawa Wikileaks hawajaongea chochote kuhusu chadema?
     
  14. Sijali

    Sijali JF-Expert Member

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    i wachokozi. Tatizo bado tuna mawazo ya kutawaliwa. Tuko tayari 'kushtak^' kwa mzungu.
    Kuna wakati Mkapa alikuwa anazungumza na waandishi wa habari wa nje (soma wazungu) tu!

    S
     
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