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Why Tshs Devaluation?

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by ELNIN0, May 13, 2010.

  1. ELNIN0

    ELNIN0 JF-Expert Member

    #1
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    Wakuu,

    Ningependa kupata maelezo mepesi zaidi nielewe kwa nini Tshs yetu inazidi kuwa weak kulingalisha na Currency zingine duniani?

    Je hii inasababishwa na nini hasa? Mimi sina elimu ya mambo ya uchumi lakini navyojua kidogo ni kwanza tunaagiza bidhaa zaidi (importations) kuliko kuuza nje (Exportation), kwa maneno mengine ration ya import na export si sawa.

    Mf. Tshs against USD ilikuwa 1200 - lakini sasa ni karibia 1450, hii inatisha.

    1. Je hakuna linaloweza kufanyika kuiweka Tshs yetu iwe stable? wenzetu wa kenya inafanyikaje Tshs yao kuwa so stable?

    2. Je hatuwezi ku Control importations ratio ikawa sana na exportation ili kuzuia
    fluctuation ya Tshs yetu? kuna athari zipi tukifanya hivi?

    3. Je Devaluation ya Tshs inauhusiano na ukuaji wa uchumi? nasikia uchumi wetu umekuwa lakini bado unaona Tshs ina zidi kuwa weak na hali ya maisha inazidi kuwa mangumu.

    4. Je kuna uhusiano wa kuporomoka kwa Tshs kuhusishwa na na mambo ya kisiasa?

    5. Niambieni Role ya BOT kuhusiana na kuporomoka kwa Tshs, Exportation na Importaion ration

    Bado nahitaji maelezo mengine mazuri na mepezi zaidi sababu nikisoma sipati maelezo yanayojitosheleza, kwa wale wachumi hebu nifungueni macho.
     
  2. Watu

    Watu JF-Expert Member

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    Demand ya $$$ iko juu, wadosi wanahamisha $$$ kwenda kwao ni hadi uchaguzi upite mjomba!!!!
     
  3. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

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    unajua kiukweli hata hiyo unayodhani ni thamani ndogo ya Tsh haina hadhi wala thamani ya kuwa hivyo ilivyo. unajua BOT inafanya kazi kisiasa sana, ukiangalia thamani halisi ya bidhaa katika soko imepanda mara mbili ama tatu ya bei husika toka January 2005 hadi leo, wakati BOT inalinda thamani kwakuongea badala ya kuongeza uzalishaji na kudhibiti mfumuko, uwezo wa kununua wa pesa yetu uko dhaifu mno kulinga nisha na miaka mitano nyuma, mimi naamini
    USD 1 ni Tsh 3000.
    hii ingesaidia kuleta thamani sawa katika currency hizi.
     
  4. Kaa la Moto

    Kaa la Moto JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu leo hii nimekuta dolar ikiwa over 1400 nimeshituka sana. Nahisi kufikia uchaguzi itakuwa 1800.
    Ni hatari tupu! Maelezo yatatusaidia kutuonyesha ukweli lakini hii bila shaka inaonyesha na uchumi wetu uko weak sana.
    Ukishasema Hakuna ulali kati ya import and export maana yake hata uchumi hauko salama:angry:
     
  5. ELNIN0

    ELNIN0 JF-Expert Member

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    Je hatuwezi kudhibiti transfer ya $$$ kwa hawa wadosi? mtu au kampuni iliyowekeza hapa nchini inaweza muda wowote kufanya tranfer ya $$$ kwenda nchi nyingine bila kizuizi chochote? BOT haina controls kwa hili?
     
  6. Wacha1

    Wacha1 JF-Expert Member

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    Unauliza majibu, huwezi kukuza uchumi wa nchi yako wakati unaruhusu capital flight kila uchwao. Tanzania imeruhusu fedha haramu za nchi nyingine zikubaliwe kama legal tender kwenye biashara zake za ndani na imeshindwa kuthibiti uchapishaji holela wa makaratasi ambayo hayana hadhi ya kuitwa pesa. Si wamesema urais ni wa mchumi Kikwete sijui alisomea huu uchumi chini ya mbuyu.
     
  7. Kang

    Kang JF-Expert Member

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    Kushuka kwa thamani sio lazima iwe kitu kibaya, inasaidia baadhi ya exports kuongezeka na imports kupungua. Kushuka kwa ghafla kama Zimbabwe ndo tatizo.
     
  8. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

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    hiyo ni kama inafanyika kwa malengo, lakini katika hili la kuanguka kwa Tsh, ni nje na machanism ya BOT.
    HII inaashiria kuporomoka kwa hali ya Uchumi katika Taifa. Taifa linayumba, takwimu zinaonyesha hali ni mbaya,
     
  9. M

    Mundu JF-Expert Member

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    Tanzania enzi za mwalimu na miaka ya mwanzo ya Mwinyi tulikuwa tuna uza nje vitu vingi na kulikuwa hakuna demand kubwa ya dola (foreign currency kama ilivyo sasa).

    Tulikuwa tunauza nje mazao ya biashara yafuatayo:
    • Pamba
    • Kahawa
    • katani
    • Chai
    • Korosho
    • Dhahabu
    • Almasi
    • Tumbaku (Kiasi kidogo)
    Demand ya dola (na foreign currency nyingine) ilikuwa ndogo sana, kwani vitu vingi Tanzania ilikuwa inaagaiza kupitia China ambako kulikuwa na agreement kati ya serikali ya Tanzania na Zambia kwa kuitumia China kujenga reli ya Tazara. Nao tuliwapatia malighafi ya kutosha. nahisi hata silaha tulikuwa tunazipata China kwa mtindo huo huo. Tulikuwa tunatoa vidola vichache kwenye uagizaji wa bidhaa kama mafuta na madawa.


    Sasa hivi kila kukicha Demand ya Dola inaongezeka kuliko supply nchini. Kwa sababu zifuatazo:
    • Uagizaji na utegemezi wa bidhaa za nje ambao hutumia hela za kigeni (magari, mitambo, madawa, mafuta, karatasi, silaha, radar, ndege ya Rais n.k)
    • Malipo ya watumishi wengi katika sekta binafsi na baadhi ya Serikali kwa kutumia dola
    • Kuporomoka kwa kwenda mbele kwa export ya mazao ya biashara (source pekee ya fedha za kigeni)
    • Safari zisizokuwa na tija za viongozi wetu nje (Hawatumii madafu kule yakhe)
    Nini kifanyike?

    Tuanze na yale yaliyo ndani ya uwezo wetu. Jambo kubwa ni kuhakikisha tunapunguza matumizi na demand ya dola humu nchini kama vile, malipo ya wafanyakazi wa kigeni, malipo kwenye huduma mbalimbali kama hotel n.k ziwe strickly kwa fedha za Tanzania. Hii itasaidia kuongeza thamani ya fedha yetu na kupunguza (maintain thamani ya fedha za ng'ambo). Pia tukazanie kubuni export ili tuongeze fedha za kigeni. Chanzo kimojapo cha export ni rasilimali bahari, Kwenye bahari kuu kuna rasilimali ya kutosha kama samaki na mazao ya bahari ambayo yana high demand katika nchi nyingine. Mnakumbuka ile meli ya magufuri? Tukomalie mazao yetu yaliyokuwa yanatutoa kimasomaso siku za nyuma (kahawa, Korosho, Pamba, Chai n.k).

    Tutumie ardhi yetu kwa kulimo cha maua na kuiyasafirisha nje kama wenzetu Kenya wanavyofanya (hapa inahitajika seriousness kidogo); if kenya with no arable land can, why not us? Pia rasilimali madini itumike kwa kunufaisha taifa na si watu wawili.

    then, central bank ije na role yake....
     
  10. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

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    asante kwa ujumbe mzuri , unaonyesha kuwa anguko la Tsh yetu ni matokeo ya uchumi ulio imbalance, uchumi rojorojo...Importation iko juu kuliko Exportation na hapo hapo, wahindi wanahodhi kila dolla inayokatiza mbele yao, kule Arusha mahoteli yanatoza bili kwa dolla.
     
  11. ELNIN0

    ELNIN0 JF-Expert Member

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    Tunafanya importation ya hata Mayai, Nyanya, Bilinganya, Uyoga, Kuku, Apples, Embe toka SA. Free market hiyo eti. - Nimekusoma mkuu thanks
     
  12. Mwanamayu

    Mwanamayu JF-Expert Member

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    Mimi sio mchumi lakini nimesoma sehemu wanasema: "Exchange rates fluctuate based on economic factors like inflation, industrial production and geopolitical events. " Hii inaweza ikawa inachangiwa na la political event kama hii inayokuja ya general election. Dollar kidogo mi-shilingi kibao kwa ajili ya kununua kura!
     
  13. G

    Godwine JF-Expert Member

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    kushuka kwa shs kunasababishwa na uwiano usio sawa wa mzunguko wa fedha za kigeni zinazotoka na zinazoingia
    kwa tanzania hii inasababishwa na kushuka kwa bidhaa zinazouzwa nje na kuongezeka kwa bidhaa zinazoingizwa nchini
    na vile vile kuna ongezeko kubwa la kampuni za kigeni zinazofanya kazi maalum ndani ya nchi yetu na kulipwa fedha za kigeni
    na si hivyo tuu bali ata mabenki ya tanzania yameanzisha account zinazotunza fedha kwa mfumo wa fedha za kigeni hii kwa
    namna moja inaweza kuraisisha kuhamisha fedha za kigeni toka nchini kwetu kwenda nchi yeyote bila vizuizi
    MADHARA YA KUSHUKA KWA SHS
    inatugharimu kutumia pato kubwa la nchi kuagiza bidhaa toka nje na pia kuuza bidhaa zetu kwa bei ndogo sana hivyo
    kuleta hasara kwa watanzania hasa wafanyabiashara na hivyo kusababisha sisi tuwe soko la bidhaa za kigeni
    FAIDA INAYOWEZA KUPATIKANA KWA KUSHUKA KWA FEDHA YETU
    Kama tutajenga viwanda vingi nchini kwetu inamaanisha kushuka kwa shs yetu kutafanya bei ya bidhaa zetu kuwa chini
    kulinganisha na bidhaa toka nje hivyo basi wananchi wengi watatumia bidhaa zetu na kuacha bidhaa za kigeni na vilevile
    bidhaa zetu zitakuwa na soko kubwa katika nchi za kigeni, mfano ni nchi ya CHINA ambayo kwa makusudi imeshusha thamani
    ya fedha yake YUAN ili kulinda na kuongeza soko la bidhaa zake na hii ndiyo sababu ya kuzuka kwa vita ya fedha yani
    currency war kati ya marekani na uchina ambayo imepelekea marekani kufungua kesi WTO ili kuilazimisha china kuongeza
    thamani ya fedha yake
     
  14. M

    Mundu JF-Expert Member

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    Kabisa, hebu tembelea Shoprite, shoppers supermarket na ile ya sea clfiff village...kila kitu pale is from either Kenya or SA. Hatuwezi kuwa na favourable balance of payment hapo. Labda turudi pale pale kwenye mada yetu... Tunahitaji sana dola kununua upuzi wote ule..na dola zitatoka wapi kama hatuzalishi dola kwa export? hilo ndio tatizo. tatizo kubwa la kuanguka kwa shilingi ni biahsara inayotiririka upande wetu tu!
     
  15. K

    Kimweri JF-Expert Member

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    Tanzania Tunaagiza kila kitu,hadi uniform za civil servants,kwa hiyo hakuna faida tutakayoipata kwa kuwa na fedha yenye thamani ndogo.

    Kama fedha yetu ingekuwa na thamani kubwa tungepata faida/uwezo wa kuagiza zaidi,lakini hii sio njia nzuri ya kutunza thamani ya fedha,NJIA PEKEE ni kuzalisha zaidi.kama nchi nyingie zitaleta fedha zao Tanaznia Basi thamani ya fedha yetu itaongezeka.sasa hivi tunapeleka vijidola vichache tulivyonavyo kila sehemu dunia hii,japani,EU,marekani,SA etc.thamani ya fehd ayetu lazima ishuke.

    Kama walivyosema huko juu,tutegemee thamani ya Tshs ikashuka hadi kufikia 3000 kwa mwaka ujao,na huyu rauisi wenu kikwete akiendelea hadi 2015,sitashangaa by 2015 Tshs exchnge rate ikawa 4000.

    Huyu kiongozi wetu ni limbukeni wa Tourism na partial things, Angekuwa stratergic thinker angehimiza ukuaji wa sekta ya viwanda/uzalishaji na kilimo yeye anashabikia utalii kila siku.

    Hayo madini binafsi siyaoni kama uzalishaji kwani ripple effect yake to the local economy is very small.
    fa
    Viwanda tunavyohitaji Tanzania kwa sasa ni vya kuproccess vyakula,kuproccess matunda na vinywaji,nguo na mavazi,machine ndogondogo zitumikazo kwenye uzalishaji wa kila siku na Assembly lines za Vifaa vya electronics,kuanzia simu za mkononi,Televisheni hadi Kompyuta.

    Pia tunahitaji Assembly line za magari n.k..,viwanda hivi vya kiwango cha chini vitatusaidia kuongeaza ripple effect ya viwanda na uzalishaji na kufanya fedha yetu iongezeke thamani.

    Ofcourse na matumizi ya wakubwa huko serikalini yapungue pia.
     
  16. M

    Mundu JF-Expert Member

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    Exactly, lakini China wameweza kwa sababu ya kuwa na technical know how ya kuzalisha bidhaa mbalimbali na usimamiaji murua wa mali za Umma. Sie ni wategemezi wakubwa, hakuna kitu tunachoweza kuzalisha. na hili ni tatizo la nchi nyingi za kiafrika (ukitoa SA). Kwahiyo, the only better solution ni kufanya yale tunayoweza vizuri, kuzalisha bidhaa za kilimo na kuuza, na kutegemea rasilimali zetu!! We failed even to continue assembling Scania at our Kibaha, Subscania yard! shame!! baiskeli tumeshindwa pia... UFI kimekufa, Fishnet imekufa, Urafiki inasuasua. Sisi tumekuwa ni Taifa la watumiaji wa bidhaa za wenzetu.
     
  17. K

    Kimweri JF-Expert Member

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    Ni asilimia ngapi ya watanzania wanafanya shopping zao imalaseko/shoprite etc?ingawa sifurahii hali ya kuagiza matunda SA etc,tukumbuke kuwa hao kina shoprite wana-cater to a very niche market.i would say less than 1% of Tanzania.

    To have a comparable effect on a country's currency it takes more than 1% of the market to do that.Inabidi tutazame ni wapi makabwela wenzetu wanapeleka fedha zao za mishahara,Shoprite?i do not think so,fedh azaetu zinaishia South east asia,na ASIA.

    Asilimia kubwa ya fedha za watanzania zinakwenda kwenye manunuzi ya Magari,vifaa vya electroniki,nguo na vifaa vya ujenzi etc..,hivi vyote havipatikani Tanzania.

    ILI tutunze thamani ya fedha zetu tuhakikishe mwananchi wa kawaida hanunui nguo kutoka CHINA,au DUBAI.tuhakikishe tunaagiza vipuri vya magari vifanyiwe assembly Tanzania,Tuhakikishe maziwa na unga wa kupikia ugali havitoki Thailand etc,tuhakikishe sementi ya ujenzi haitoki pakistani.

    HAPO TUTATUNZA THAMANI ya fedha yetu.
     
  18. K

    Kimweri JF-Expert Member

    #18
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    THAT WAS 20 years ago,Tanzania as a country has changed a lot,If the government releases the economy to SME's and private enterprenuers these things can be taken care of very easily.Kama watu wameweza kuendesha yadi za magari,biashara za ndege na Mahoteli sidhani kama watashindwa kufanya shughuli za uzalishaji.

    Kwa sasa hakuna faida ya mjasiriamali kuwfanya uzalishaji wakati angeweza kununua kutoka china kwa gharama NAFUU.

    Wapunguze gharama za Nishati,wahakikishe kuna Special economic zones za kuchochea uzalishaji(ziwe exclusive to Tanzanians only.).US wana silicon valley.China wana Special economic zones zao kama SHENZEN etc.

    Hapo kwenye technical knowhow,HAKUNA technical KNOWHOW yoyote inayohitajika kwenye kutengeneza tai,suti,viatu ambayo mafundi waliokuwepo Tanzania hawana,It is easier kuimporty etchnical knowhow.,and it is economically viable in the longterm kuliko kuagiza ready made junks.

    Nimeongelea assembling factories,entry level factories etc.hivyo tunaweza.
     
  19. M

    Mdadisi Member

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    hili la thamani za pesa linakoroga akili. mfano kwa hapa Bongo kwa kutumia shilingi unanunua Yen nyingi za mjapani kuliko Shilingi ya kenya! Je hii ina maana uchumi wa kenya ni bora kuliko japan?
     
  20. G

    Godwine JF-Expert Member

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    lakini ni wakati umefika kwa sekta binafsi kujikita katika viwanda kwani serikali imeshindwa
    kwa mfano utakuta mtu ametunza mamilioni ya shs katika bank zetu lakini kama angejua
    ni jinsi gani angeweza kunufaika kwa kujenga kiwanda ata cha kusindika matunda tuu pale TANGA
    kwani ukiwa na shs bilioni 4 unaweza kujenga kiwanda cha wastani kitachokuwezesha kufanya biashara
    kubwa mno.
    hivyo basi ni wakati wetu sasa kuleta mabadiliko na tupunguze utegemezi na tufanye uchumi wetu uwe
    imara na fedha yetu isiteteleke
     
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