afroPianist
Member
- Nov 3, 2010
- 86
- 21
After the uprising and success of the phenomenal fueled anti-government demonstrations witnessed in North Africa in the past few weeks, there is every reason to suggest that it's only a matter of time before people from the rest of non-Arab Africa such as Tanzania take to the streets and do what they should have done decades ago, get rid of the failed corrupt system holding the realms of power in their countries.
However there is a school of thought that suggests precisely otherwise, that in Black Africa the protests & demos might be just as anxious and dramatic but will not persist enough to see the happy ending as witnessed in Tunisia or Egypt, although It actually admits that conditions for a Tunisian or Egyptian uprising exist in surplus amounts in the rest of Africa.
According to that perspective, revolutions in Black Africa (including Tanzania) are more likely to be expressed as armed rebellion, or retail ethnic cleansing as we saw in Kenya as opposed to mass demos and protests.
The following editorial extract from The East African suggests why those who hope for "mass power" to take ground and save the people in Tanzania from their miseries have but hoped in vain.
"....So should we hope that the revolution will spread to sub-Saharan Africa? The answer is "Yes' and "No." The protests are mainly against high youth unemployment, tough economic conditions, corruption, and general repression. However, these conditions also exist, at worse levels, in Black Africa.
A general agreement is emerging that the Internet, especially social media like Twitter and Facebook, were the tools that allowed the young people of Tunisia and Egypt - where free political activity is curtailed - to organize the protests. Egypt and Tunisia are among Africa's top 10 Internet users.
According to data from June last year, Egypt had 10,060,000 regular Internet users. Tunisia was seventh with 3,600,000.
This would suggest that once you have a corrupt government, youth unemployment hovering at or beyond 40 per cent, high Internet use, and some level of repression, then you have the ingredients for an Egypt-Tunisia-type rebellion.
On that account, revolts in the rest of Africa are long overdue. Take Nigeria. By June last year, it had the largest number of Internet users in Africa – 43,982,200. It is corrupt, and its level of youth unemployment make Egypt look like paradise. It is estimated to be 60 to 70 per cent.
This is a random pick. Clearly, then, the conditions exist in sub-Saharan Africa for mass revolts. However, while the conditions exist, there are critical differences between North and sub-Saharan Africa.
To begin with, countries like Egypt and Tunisia are fairly homogeneous. They have one "tribe," if you like. They are overwhelmingly Arab. Then, on average, 90 per cent of the people are Muslims. In most of the rest of Africa, except for a few of the countries - most of them small, like Rwanda, Burundi, Botswana, and Somalia - the differences are massive. On average, most of the countries in the rest of Africa have between 20 and 60 ethnic groups, and are almost evenly divided among Catholics, Protestants, Muslims, and Traditionalists.
Secondly, in Africa these movements are extremely susceptible to hijack because of its internal diversity. In Uganda, for example, in recent years all student (and indeed lecturers') protests have fizzled out because the government has been able to divide them along ethnic-political lines.
The long-term effect of this is that student elections at Makerere University, just as at Nairobi University these days, are fought along regional lines.
The tribe/party of the president will support a candidate, and the rest will gang up against him. Or the Catholics will vote against the Protestant candidate. This process mirrors itself in most of Africa's elections.
In the Arab countries, it is very difficult to play that ethno-political card, because in most cases it is not possible.
But tribalism and religious chauvinism don't function in a vacuum. In fact, they are a product of a deeper problem, which has to do with the way most post-colonial states in Africa have developed...."
That being the case can we really hope for "NGUVU YA UMMA" to overhaul CCM from power? Just may be!
However there is a school of thought that suggests precisely otherwise, that in Black Africa the protests & demos might be just as anxious and dramatic but will not persist enough to see the happy ending as witnessed in Tunisia or Egypt, although It actually admits that conditions for a Tunisian or Egyptian uprising exist in surplus amounts in the rest of Africa.
According to that perspective, revolutions in Black Africa (including Tanzania) are more likely to be expressed as armed rebellion, or retail ethnic cleansing as we saw in Kenya as opposed to mass demos and protests.
The following editorial extract from The East African suggests why those who hope for "mass power" to take ground and save the people in Tanzania from their miseries have but hoped in vain.
"....So should we hope that the revolution will spread to sub-Saharan Africa? The answer is "Yes' and "No." The protests are mainly against high youth unemployment, tough economic conditions, corruption, and general repression. However, these conditions also exist, at worse levels, in Black Africa.
A general agreement is emerging that the Internet, especially social media like Twitter and Facebook, were the tools that allowed the young people of Tunisia and Egypt - where free political activity is curtailed - to organize the protests. Egypt and Tunisia are among Africa's top 10 Internet users.
According to data from June last year, Egypt had 10,060,000 regular Internet users. Tunisia was seventh with 3,600,000.
This would suggest that once you have a corrupt government, youth unemployment hovering at or beyond 40 per cent, high Internet use, and some level of repression, then you have the ingredients for an Egypt-Tunisia-type rebellion.
On that account, revolts in the rest of Africa are long overdue. Take Nigeria. By June last year, it had the largest number of Internet users in Africa – 43,982,200. It is corrupt, and its level of youth unemployment make Egypt look like paradise. It is estimated to be 60 to 70 per cent.
This is a random pick. Clearly, then, the conditions exist in sub-Saharan Africa for mass revolts. However, while the conditions exist, there are critical differences between North and sub-Saharan Africa.
To begin with, countries like Egypt and Tunisia are fairly homogeneous. They have one "tribe," if you like. They are overwhelmingly Arab. Then, on average, 90 per cent of the people are Muslims. In most of the rest of Africa, except for a few of the countries - most of them small, like Rwanda, Burundi, Botswana, and Somalia - the differences are massive. On average, most of the countries in the rest of Africa have between 20 and 60 ethnic groups, and are almost evenly divided among Catholics, Protestants, Muslims, and Traditionalists.
Secondly, in Africa these movements are extremely susceptible to hijack because of its internal diversity. In Uganda, for example, in recent years all student (and indeed lecturers') protests have fizzled out because the government has been able to divide them along ethnic-political lines.
The long-term effect of this is that student elections at Makerere University, just as at Nairobi University these days, are fought along regional lines.
The tribe/party of the president will support a candidate, and the rest will gang up against him. Or the Catholics will vote against the Protestant candidate. This process mirrors itself in most of Africa's elections.
In the Arab countries, it is very difficult to play that ethno-political card, because in most cases it is not possible.
But tribalism and religious chauvinism don't function in a vacuum. In fact, they are a product of a deeper problem, which has to do with the way most post-colonial states in Africa have developed...."
That being the case can we really hope for "NGUVU YA UMMA" to overhaul CCM from power? Just may be!
