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Web sites valuation and analysis

Discussion in 'Tech, Gadgets & Science Forum' started by Mtazamaji, Jan 18, 2011.

  1. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Jan 18, 2011
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    Wataalam wanajami na wadau wa jukwaa la teknolojia . Leo naedelea kuleta mada za Tovuti

    Nianze na maswali .au julize maswali haya Je

    • Unajua thamani( value) ya tovuti kama jamiiforums.com , yahoo.com issamichuzi.blogspot.com etc?

    • Wewe ungekuwa mmimiliki wa web xyz akaja mtu anataka umuuize hiyo web yako na wewe unataka kuiuza kwa bei ya soko ni vitu gani utazingatia kabla ya kumtajia bei ya tovuti yako.

    • Au wewe ungekuwa mnunuzi wa kuinnunua tovuti kama jamiiforum kwa bei ya soko . utatoa shilingi ngapi? kwa nini?
    Katika soma soma yangu nimekutana na website mbali mbali ambazo zenyewe ni kama nyenzo za kutathmini tovuti. Tovuti zenyewe ni

    WEBSITE ANALYSIS
    Alexa the Web Information Company


    Hii tovuti ya alexa inonyesha takwimu mbali mbali za website utayoingiza. Takwimu zenyewe ni kama

    • Nafasi ya tovuti katika dunia (Alexa Rank in wold)
    • Nafasi ya tovuti katika nchi husika (Rank in country)
    • Idadi ya tovuti zingine zenye viunganishi vinayokuleta kwenye tuvuti husika (site linking)
    • Ni kundi la watu zaidi wanapenda kutembelea tovuti husika wa kwa umri, jinsia na hata ni watu wa nchi gani
    WEBSITE VALUE
    Your Website Value , Web Worth | Website Value Calculator , na Website Value and Worth Calculator

    Hizi ni tovuti zinazojaribu kuthaminisha kwa pesa tovuti. Sijaelewa zinatumia vigezo gani lakini hata zenyewe zina zime tofautiana katika kufanya tahmini ya website nilizojaribu ku query

    So how much do think is jamiforums worth.Tutafurahi tukipata hata tathmini ya owners wenyewe.

    tujadili uthaminishaji wa tovuti.
     
  2. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

    #2
    Jan 18, 2011
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    Kwa mujibu wa alexa.com

    jamiiforums.com Ni tovuti ya 10 kwa traffic kubwa na net ya tanzania na ni tovuti ya 30,305 kwa dunia. kuna tovuti 96 zina viunganishi vya jamiiforums

    issamichuzi.blogspot.com ni tovuti ya 62 kwa Tanzania wakati kidunia ni ya 113,769. Kuna tovuti 100 zinaviungnishi vya issamichuzi

    Orodha ya tovuti zinazopokea traaffic kubwa tanzania( top site in tanzania)

    1. Google
    2. Facebook
    3. Google.co.tz
    4. Yahoo.com
    5. Youtube.com
    6. Windows Live live.com
    7. Blooger.com
    8. Wikipedia.org
    9. BBC.co.uk
    10. Jamiiforums.com
    11. Amazom.com
    12. Msn.com
    13. conduit.com
    14. espncricinfo.com
    15. linkedln.com
    16. Thepiratebay.org ( na haya mambo hahahaha)
    Hongereni sana Jf kuwa ni site pekee ya watanzania kuwa kwenye orodha ya top ten sites.

    Thamani ya za Tovuti
    yourwebsitevalue.com wanasema value ya

    • Jamiiforums ni $168,960 ,
    • Global Publishers thamani yake ni $6,033
    • issamichuzi.blogspot.com thmani yake ni $20,722
    • Facebook.com ni$1,831,009,645
    Mpo hapo ?

    na nyingine kalii hii

     
  3. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

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    How much does this website cost.? Invisible tupe clue teh teh teh
     
  4. Given Edward

    Given Edward Verified User

    #4
    May 8, 2011
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    You sure did your homework!
     
  5. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

    #5
    May 9, 2011
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    Just share what you know we are here to learn. How do u value website ?
     
  6. Given Edward

    Given Edward Verified User

    #6
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    Perhaps according to the codings used, number of traffic, distribution of users geographically, activeness of members,ads, maintanance costs, etc.
     
  7. mazd

    mazd Senior Member

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    Mostof them they use Hits per day/week/month to calculate value of site.
     
  8. Kang

    Kang JF-Expert Member

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    May 10, 2011
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    Kwa kuangalia hiyo value yao ya Facebook unaweza kuana kuwa hakuna ukweli wowote kwenye hizo values, Facebook iko valued at more than $60 billion kwenye open market.

    Alexa inategemea statistics zinazotoka kwa watu walioinstall toolbar yao last time I checked, hii haiwezi kuleta accurate valuation.
     
  9. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

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    Kang uko sahihi lakini mfano tajiri mmoja anakuja kukuomba ushauri kama mtaalam wa IT kuwa anataka kuinunua Jamiiforums au issmichuzi Anataka ummpe kadirio la bei ya juu ya chini kama mtaalam wa IT Utamwambiaje.??

    Na utatumia vigezo gani au tools gani kuthaminisha tovuti kama mthaminishaji huru.

    Kwanu naona ni complex process. Hiyo thamani ya Facebook au google inawezekana ni uwa sana au ndogo but ni vitu gani wanazingatia. zaidi ya hits. utajuje kama watu wa wa FB au google hawaja cook data zao kuipaishia tovuti zao. I meana hao open markey wametumia vigezo gani.

    lakini alexa haichukia data kutoka tu kwa watu wenye toolbar pekee . kwa mujibu wao wenyewe wamedvance analysiss mechanisma yao. though sijaelewa bado.
     
  10. Chamoto

    Chamoto JF-Expert Member

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    Niliwahi kusema hivi hapo awali kwenye thread hii:

    JamiiForums WEB VALUE


     
  11. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

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    Chamoto thanks kwa maelezo mazur lakini narudia swali lile lile. Data zote tunazpata ni za upande mmoja wa shilingi. Alexa akisema google wanaa fiigure XXX inaweza iwe sahihi na mimi naamini si sahii.

    Lakini google nao wakisema wanaingiza figures naweza sema zinaweza isiwe sahihi.

    Sasa narudi kuuuliza swali nililomuuliza kang. Kama mtaalam anakuja mtu anataka kunua tovuti au blog ya issamichuzi kwa bei ya soko na si kwa bei anayosema muuzaji. Anataka ummpe usauhri kwa utaalamu wako umshauri asilipe zaidi ya kiasi fulani .

    Utatatumia mbinu gani au tools gani kutambua value sahihi ya site kama issa michuzi?Au simply Blog ya issa michuzi unai value vipi kiasi gani na kwa nini ?
     
  12. mazd

    mazd Senior Member

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    Mimi nadhani nikisha kuelewa Alexa wanatumia vigezo gani basi hapo nitaweza kumkadiria mtu--Pia kwa vile all website address they bust be registered to avoid duplication ya site busi pengine Alexa wanchua data toka board ya usajili amabayp inatambua web address flani imetembelewa mara ngapi.
     
  13. Kang

    Kang JF-Expert Member

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    Kwa open market namanisha soko huria liko tayari kulipa kiasi gani for Facebook.
    Mfano Microsoft wamenunua 10% ya Facebook for $6 billion so market inasema kampuni iko worth $60 billion. (simple e.g)

    Kupata true value ya website ni next to impossible, unaweza kuangalia earning.

    Traffic (unaweza ukawa na traffic nyingi lakini haumake hata centi e.g Wikipedia), aina ya watu wanaotembelea website (Wamarekani wengi zaidi wanaweza kununua vitu online kuliko Watanzania, hatuna Credit Cards, so kwa measure hiyo tuko less valuable as web visitors).

    Future potential ya website (Facebook pamoja na kwamba haimake huge profits watu wanaithamini kwa sababu wanajaribu kutabiri future), product/topic unayodeal nayo (popular site ya electronics/computers ni more valuable kuliko popular personal blog etc).

    So kuevalueate Michuzi or JF itabidi uangalie log/Analytics zao kisha uamue value yake.
     
  14. Chamoto

    Chamoto JF-Expert Member

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    Kwanza kabisa naomba ieleweke sitazungumzia value za tovuti za makampuni makubwa kwasababu wao wanajumuisha vitu vingi mfano asset, stock, technology, patents, employee, na mambo mengine mengi ambayo ni yakinadharia zaidi.

    Kuhusu blog ya michuzi (na blogger/worpress hosted blogs kwa ujumla) kwakweli siwezi kusema mengi kwasababu japokuwa watu wanasema ni yake ukweli ni kwamba siyo yake, yaani siyo mmiliki wa blogspot.com domain, mmiliki halisi ni google. Google wanaweza kuifuta wakati wowote unless kama amebackup content. Kwahiyo ni vigumu kupata kadirio halisi wakati haumiliki tovuti 100%

    Ila nilisikia kuwa analipwa kama $20,000 kwa mwezi kutokana na matangazo. Sasa tuseme ametumia ile domain yake ya michuzi.com na kuhost contents zake zote za blogger basi naweza kukadiria value yake kuwa (pato la mwezi x30) kuwa $600,000. Hii itajumuisha pato la sasa na ongezeko kwa zaidi ya miaka mitatu.

    Hata hivyo haya mambo yako very subjective kwasababu inategemeana na jinsi utakavyo iweka "perceived value".

    Hivi ndivyo watu wanavyofanya kuonyesha value:

    1. kudanganya value ya alexa (hapa watu hutumia script kuhit alexa). Japokuwa alexa siyo kigezo kizuri lakini usahihi wake unaongezeka (proportional) kadiri namba ya alexa inavyopungua. As a rule of thumb tovuti zenye value ya alexa chini ya 2,000 ziko accurate kwenye umaarufu ( kwa maneno mengine siyo rahisi kufake ranking chini ya 2,000).

    2. Thamani inaweza kuongezeka kama tovuti inalenga niche fulani (targeted audience) kama ni tovuti inayotembelewa na, mfano, wapenzi wa Nintendo wii thamani yake itakuwa kubwa kuliko ile inayolenga wapenzi wa games.

    Mfano unaweza kuandika ad inayosema:

    Ila siyo niche zote zinalipa kunabaadhi zinapesa zaidi mfano golf, Mesothelioma, online gambling (sasa hivi ni illegal US), dentist in (weka mji), win a lottery etc. Sababu ya hizi niche kuwa na faida ni kwamba watu wanaohusika na mambo haya hawafikirii sana kutoa pesa kupata wanacho kitaka.

    Niliwahi kuelezea hapa kuhusu keyword value for different niches kwenye hii post

    3. Kama unatumia google adsense unaweza kuonyesha CTR na kiasi unacho tengeneza, japokuwa google hukataza ku-share publicly lakini wao sio Mungu na wala siyo Sheria. Mfano Jeremy Schoemaker ambaye aliwahi kuonyesha cheki yake ya google kama kionjo cha kuitangaza blogu yake.

    Adsense check for $132,994.97



    adsensecheck.jpg


    Pia jamaa wa plentyoffish aliwahi kuonyesha chekii yake

    plentyoffish Adsense check for CAD 901,733.84

    plentyoffishcheque2.jpg


    4. Wakati mwingine inaweza kuwa ni graphic nzuri ila mara nyingi kama hicho ndiyo kigezo pekee watu wengi wanakuwa turned off kwasababu thamani ya website ni watumiaji.

    5. Aged (established) domani pia ni kigezo kizuri sana kwasababu ya trustrank ya search engines (talking about spidering history na spidering recency) .

    Hata kama ukitengeneza 1000 pages leo googlebot hawatakuja kuspider kwasababu algorithm yao itatambua kuwa wewe ni a "new kid on the block" (inawezekana ni chui mwenye ngozi ya kondoo). kwasababu tovuti zote mpya lazima ziwe sandboxed kwa muda fulani (miezi sita mpaka mwaka mmoja), ukiona tovuti yenye indexed pages nyingi ni dhahiri kuwa thamani yake (seo perspective) ni kubwa

    Unatumia site: operator mfano (site:jamiiforums.com) kujua number of indexed pages ila ukitaka kujua active pages unatumia "/*" operator baada ya domain yaani site:jamiiforums.com/* ukiangalia katika hizi links mbili utaona moja ina results nyingi kuliko nyingine, hii ni kwasababu "/*" operator inaondoa inactive indexed pages au supplimental pages. Zamani (zaidi ya miaka mitano) google walikua wanaonyesha zipi ni active na zipi ni supplimental ila waliondoa kwasababu ilikuwa ni rahisi ku-abuse serp (kuhisi algorithm yao ikoje).

    6.
    Paid subscription membership site zina value kubwa kuliko zile za free users, hii ni kwasabau kama mtu ameamua kulipia kutembelea tovuti ni dhahiri kuwa teyari ameona value yake. Tuseme una memba 1000 ( social proof ) na kila mmoja analipia $30 kwa mwezi kwa kutumia paypal, inamaana mapato ya hiyo website ni $30,000 kwa mwezi. Sasa ukitaka kuuza tovuti kama hii mnunuaji anakuwa na data za uhakika kuwa atapata 30,000 kwa mwezi.



    7.
    Kama unaown product ambayo unauza kwenye tovuti na una-data kuonyesha mauzo yake kwa mwezi basi hiyo itaongeza value.

    Mfano kama umeandika ka-ebook ka kuelezea kama haya mambo ninayo yaelezea au kama umetengeneza ka software ambacho kanasaidia kukurahisishia kazi kama (reading/answering emails, sending mass pm, creating thousands of WPMU blogs, creating and posting thousands of articles, creating and verifying thousands of yahoo or gmail accounts, automatically breaking captcha n.k) hii inatongeza value ya tovuti

    Eniwei nitaishi hapa kwa leo
     
  15. Washawasha

    Washawasha JF-Expert Member

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    @ Chamoto umesomeka mkuu
     
  16. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

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    Thanks kwa maelezo mazuri mkuuu

    Lakini hata kama blogsopt ni mali ya google bado zinaweza kuthaminishwa. Nadhani sio tatizo. Sababu hata ukimiliki tovuti 100% unaweza usiwe na hata 1% ya umiliki wa server harware ilipo tovuti. So kwangu kigezo cha blogspot kuwa mali ya google haizuii uthaminishaji. may be sema tovuti kuwa chini ya kivuli cha blogspot au wordpress .inaogeza risk na kupunguza value ya tovuti.


    sasa turidi kwenye mada . alexa na hao wengine wametoa data zao za thamani ya Jf na issa michuzi.Je kwa mtazamo wako zinaendana na uweli? Ni kubwa sana ni ndogo sana. Hazitakiwi kuzingatiwa kabisa. kama hazitakiwi kuzingatiwa kabisa can u come with approximate figure.

    Sijui hata wakuu wa jf wenyewe wanaithaminisha vipi tovuti yao? Just curious to know.


    Assume tumeingia kwenye analytics ya hiyo web xyz iliyoanziswa toka mwaka 2007 tumeona kwa siku inapata watembeleaji 205 .kila siku inapat wastani wa watembeleaji wapya watatu .kila user anatumia avarage 6 min kwenye hiyo web. na user wenyewe ni 120 wa US 40 ni wa UK na 45 ni wa tanzania.

    Je value ya tovuti kama hii ni kiasi gani?
     
  17. Chamoto

    Chamoto JF-Expert Member

    #17
    May 19, 2011
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    Hili ni tatizo kubwa kwasababu hauna control mfano kama unataka kuongeza madoido kweneye tovuti kwa ku-install forum script kama hii ya JF (vBulletin) ili watu wachangie au kuweka elgg script ili uongeze interactivity ya social networking, haya mambo hayawezekani kwenye blogspot.com kwasababu hauna control ya root domain.

    Ila kwa upande mwingine kama unamiliki mtazamaji.com kwa kutumia Cpanel tuu unaweza kutengeneza subdomain ya forum.mtazamaji.com au social.mtazamaji.com kwasababu unakuwa na root access, upo hapo mkuu?

    Ni kweli kuhusu umilikaji wa server lakini kwenye mambo haya domain name (address) na content ndiyo vitu mihimu. Server unaweza ku-rent na unapohitaji kununua ya kwako unaweza fanya hivyo. Hapa JF tuu ni ushuhuda tosha wa ninayosema, we unafikiri ni kwa nini jamboforums ili badilishwa kuwa jamiiforums? Je unafikiri ni kwanini jamiiforums imekuwa registered kwenye top level domains zote popular kama .com, .net, .biz, .info, .org

    Je unaelewa kuwa kuna watu kazi yao ni kuangalia trends za matukio mbalimbali na wakiona kama kutakuwa na umaarufu fulani huwa wana register domain haraka halafu wana zi park hoping siku moja watauza kwa pesa nyingi tuu. Mfano kama nitahisi kuwa mtazamaji anatengeneza rocket ya kwenda mars, cha kufanya nita register popular domains zote za mtazamaji.com, mtazamaji.net, mtazamaji.org, mtazamaji.us, mtazamaji.biz, mtazamaji.info halfu nitazi 302 redirect mtazamaji.com. Siku hiyo utakapo washa rocket yako kwenda mars nitaziuza kwa $$$$ nyingi sana.

    Haya mambo huwezi fanya kama unamiliki blogspot sudomain tuu.

    Kwanza kabisa Alexa hawatoi thamani ya website wao watatoa makadirio ya stat na hii nimei-test mwenyewe kwa kuangalia log files zangu na kwa kutumia statcounter script na google analytics ya traffic ( in real time) ya kwenye baadhi ya website zangu na kuona kuwa stat za alexa si za kweli.

    Mfano mwaka jana niliwahi kuongeza cloak pages nyingi na niliwa-trick google kuwa hizo pages ni real na walizi- index haraka na traffic from google ikaongezeka mara dufu cha kushangaza my alexa ranking ikashuka, duh. Pia mwaka juzi nilitengeneza script iliyokuwa inaandika articles na kuzipost kwenye articles directories. Nilikuwa na post 900 articles per day (this is called blackhat seo), traffic iliongezeka sana lakini cha kushangaza alexa wao hawakuonesha mabadiliko yoyote.

    Nakumbuka uliwahi kuniita mwanasiasa wakati tuna jadili nani zaidi kati ya Newton vs Einstein ila nitasema tena kuwa si rahisi kutoa figure kwasababu haya mambo ni subjective. Ndiyo maana hapo awali nilitumia mapato kama jiwe kianzishi kuweka makadirio ya thamani ya tovuti, hata hivyo ni vigumu. Kwa mfano japokuwa JF haipo kimapato lakini inathamani kubwa kwasababu ya ushawishi. Ina miliki peoples mind, tunakuja hapa kila siku kwa hiari yetu. Hata Nyerere kama angekuwa anahutubia kila siku watu wangemchoka lakini watu hawachoki kuja JF. Sasa sijui hii utaipimaje kwa figures my friend.

    Kwahiyo tunarudi pale pale kuwa mambo haya ni kama uzuri wa mwanamke inategeneana na mtu.
     
  18. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

    #18
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    Chamoto thans kwa maelezo mazuri ya kuonyesha ugumu wa usahihi wa wa kuvalue tovuti. Lakini Aelxa wameithaminisha yahoo au google kwa model yao tunakubalina si sahihi. Gogle au yahoo wao wana thamani zao amabazo usahihi wake pia unaweza kuwa na maswali mengi.

    Ndio maana nasema Ingawa Alexa wanaweza wasiwe sahihi bado inawezekana hata value wanayojipa google au fabebook inaweza isiwe sahihi. Inawezekana kuna vitu waafanya na kufanya bei yao ya soko inapnda .

    But again wewe kama mtaalam labda niache kutumia majina la jf au muchuzi yanaweza kuwa kikwazo kutumia utaalam wako kuthaminisha web.

    chukulia mfano huu

    Assume
    tumeingia kwenye analytics ya hiyo web xyz iliyoanziswa toka mwaka 2007 tumeona kwa siku inapata watembeleaji 205 .kila siku inapat wastani wa watembeleaji wapya wanane (8) .kila user anatumia avarage 10 min kwenye hiyo web. na user wenyewe ni 120 wa US 40 ni wa UK na 45 ni wa tanzania. Tovuti hii tuichukulie kama yahoo ina huduama za mail na inachapisha article mabli mbali za za siasa , michezo utamaduni za za tanzania na za kimataifa.

    Je value ya tovuti kama hii ni kiasi gani?

    Kitaalam na kiufundi kila kitu kina thamani yake ambayo inaweza kuwa tofauti na bei amabyo muuzaji au mnunuaji yuko tayari kuuza au kununua.

    Sasa thamani ya tovuti hii ya XYZ ni kiasi gani? Nakuuliza hivi sababu kuna mtu alinipa challenge akanimbia kama anataka kununua tovuti atajuaje thamani yake ukiondoa ile aliyombiwa na muuzaji. Kwangu 1st reference ni alexa ay analytics though najua haina usahihi wa hata 90%. 2nd refence ni site za valution ambazo nazo nadhani zinatumia some model kama ya Alexa au analytics.

    Ndio maana nakuuliza unipe model inayoweza kuzaa formula na kuja na specifi value. ya hii site xyz.
     
  19. Chamoto

    Chamoto JF-Expert Member

    #19
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    kama unataka kutengeneza model yako mwenyewe hicho ni kitu kizuri sana na ingekuwa vizuri ukaanza kudefine factors za kuonesha thamani ya tovuti halafu ukatengeneza algo inayo-analyse hizo factors ili kupata kadirio.Nafikiri hii itakuwa ni project nzuri sana na nina pendekeza iwe ni yet another mtazamaji project at JF.

    Kama tutazingatia factors nyingi tatakaribia kwenye ukweli kwa mfano tukiangalia haya:


    • potential traffic increase
    • Any legal issues (has the site been sued before?)
    • alexa ranking
    • google pagerank
    • compete data
    • site log files data
    • number of visitors per day (new, returned, time they stay)
    • accessing a site (do they have to log in? Visitors who have to login to access a page show more loyalty hence have more value)
    • Any paid subscribers (if they pay you it means they see value in your site)
    • how long the site has been online
    • kind of domain (.info domains are not the same as .com)
    • how cute a domain is (jinsiyakukadiriathamnaniyatoviti.com siyo sawa na kadirio.com)
    • indexing recency factor
    • how many indexed pages in the search engine
    • revenue (is it making any money)
    • trends ( is there anything of value that can be analyzed like gender or age group)
    • Brand ( does that domain has any legal protection like amazon.com)
    • patent (any patented technology related to that domain like algorithm)


      .... Haya ndiyo niliyoyakumbuka right of the bat, kwahiyo inabidi kuwe na algo ya kuanalyse hizi factors.
     
  20. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

    #20
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    Thanks very much kwa elimu murua ila umefanya nicheke sana uliposema yet anaother Mtazamaji project. This one can die hata kabla haijaanza teh teh teh . maana naona ni ngumu mu kuliko ile niliyoshindwa na wenzangu teh teh teh
     
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