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We Should Stop Taking CCM for Granted

Discussion in 'Uchaguzi Tanzania' started by Mchambuzi, Sep 5, 2010.

  1. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Tanzania is an exceptional case when it comes to the pattern of violence and instability that has prevailed in many parts of Sub Saharan Africa since independence. Despite the presence of numerous destabilizing factors in Tanzania, the country has remained intact in terms of political stability and social coherency. It all began with an extensive project of creating a national identity by the late Mwalimu Nyerere in early 1960s, under TANU/CCM. This post colonial project emphasized peace and unity as central national values. Based on this national identity, many Tanzanians have attempted to stay away from politics of divisiveness, violence and conflicts, thereby reject political parties such as CHADEMA and CUF that invest in politics of hatred, violence, ethnic and religious polarization.

    Despite the fact that the majority of Tanzanians live in less than Two Dollars a day, Tanzania remains to be a nation of people with so much pride. Majority of Tanzanians cite peace and unity as their main sources of national pride. I once had a conversation with a Street Hawker in Dar-es-salaam city by the name of Seif. I asked him one question: How do you see Tanzania?
    Seif's response was as follows:

    Most of us are very poor…one can hardly find a decent job or afford healthcare ....basic social services such as clean water and electricity have increasingly become a luxury for the few…food too has become very expensive…. but one thing that I am very proud of is to be a Tanzanian…at least we have peace".

    This response by Seif does not come as a surprise. Tanzania is ranked as one of the poorest countries in the world. CCM has managed to maintain peace in Tanzania since independence despite the existence of several destabilizing factors in the country. For those who believe in conventional theories of conflict, Tanzania should be plagued by violence and instability. Theories of conflict suggest a number of indicators that are of potentially volatile situation in a country. These indicators include:
    • High levels of unemployment.
    • Large youth population.
    • Highly heterogeneous ethnic and religious groups
    • Military insecurity in surrounding countries.

    Practically speaking, all these pre-conditional factors for conflict and violence exist in Tanzania. The African State Instability Project for the 2000 – 2010 period identifies four major factors that explain violence and conflict in Sub Saharan Africa. The factors are:

    (i) Low GDP Per Capita
    (ii) Chronic Foreign Aid – Dependency
    (iii) Instability in the neighboring countries and
    (iv) Heterogeneous population.

    According to the project, GDP per capita is one of the strongest correlations of state instability. If we look at Tanzania, the country has an extremely low GDP per capita. According to World Bank data, GDP Per Capita stands around $400. The World Bank has come up with a classification of countries according to their National Income. Accordingly, it defines low income countries as all those with a GDP Per Capita less than $905. Given the $400 GDP Per Capita, Tanzania belongs to the lowest category of development thereby putting the country in line with the theories of conflict i.e. at a high risk of falling into political conflicts and violence. However, for the past 49 years, this has hardly been the case.

    A second correlate of state instability is chronic foreign aid dependency. Since independence, Tanzania has been one of the biggest recipients of foreign aid in the developing world. There was a period when Tanzania was ranked second only to Israel in terms of AID per Capita. By 1985, Tanzania had received over $6 billion in foreign aid from both bilateral and multilateral donors. During the 1990s, donors' contributed about 60% the country's budget. According to recent reports from the Ministry of Finance, donors' contribution to the country's budget stands at around 35%. According to the theories of conflict, heavy dependence on Foreign Aid highly correlates with conflict in a country. Even so, it has hardly been the case in Tanzania.

    A third correlate is the instability in the immediate neighbors. Conflicts have repeatedly engulfed the great lakes region. Infrequent instability in Kenya and Uganda has always been both, a concern and threat to Tanzania. These neighboring effects also extend to the presence of large number of refugee population in Tanzania, still mainly from the DRC. Data by the Economist Intelligence Unit show that Tanzania ranks fourth in terms of countries with the largest refugee population in the world. Due to its political stability, Tanzania has for many years, been hosting a large refugee population from neighboring countries. According to the US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants (USCRI), Tanzania hosted approximately 500,000 refugees at the end of 2001, including more than 350,000 from Burundi, nearly 120,000 from Congo-Kinshasa, some 25,000 from Rwanda, and more than 3,000 from Somalia. Tanzania also hosted an additional 300,000 to 470,000 Burundians who resided in western Tanzania. Also an estimated 30,000 new refugees fled to Tanzania from Burundi and Congo-Kinshasa during 2001.The overwhelming majority of refugees live in Tanzania's impoverished northwest, where basic social services barely met the needs of Tanzania local residents. Despite the suggestion that such factors highly correlate with conflict in a country, it has not been the case in Tanzania.

    A fourth correlate is tied to demographic characteristics. If one pays attention to the characteristics of demographics in Tanzania, one may conclude that country is in a fragile state: youth protuberance, rapid urbanization, a decline in arable land per capita and so forth. All these are factors which highly correlate with conflict in a country. According to data by the World Bank, about 48% of the country's population is under the age of 15; about 70% of the population is under the age of 30. Tanzania also has highly heterogeneous ethnic and religious groups; the country is divided almost in half in terms of Christianity and Islam. Withal, Tanzania has remained to be a peaceful nation throughout independence.

    Despite all these destabilizing factors, how and why has Tanzania managed to remain peaceful?
    An extensive "National Identity" project under TANU/CCM in the early years of independence, which emphasized on the importance of peace and unity in the context of economic development, is largely responsible for current political stability in Tanzania. Despite high incidence of poverty in the country, it is the National Identify aspect that makes many Tanzanians attempt to stay away from politics of divisiveness, violence and conflicts, thus reject any political parties such as CHADEMA that invest in violence, ethnic and religious polarization.

    One important lesson for the opposition parties in Tanzania is that it should be in their self-interest to pursue policies that emphasize peace and non-divisive modes of competition in Tanzanian politics. Conflict and violence may only render the opposition attention in the short run. Any perceptions that the opposition parties are trying to divide the electorate will undermine their chances of gaining widespread political support in the country. Despite their poor livelihoods, most Tanzanians have little patience for violence and divisiveness in politics such as those preached by CHADEMA and CUF, they are always ready to turn against any political parties that do not seem committed to preserving peace, something which Tanzanians are so proud of.

    When Nyalali's commission released its report on multi-party system survey in early 1990s, most Tanzanians opposed multiparty system. Their main fear was that political competition in Tanzania would lead to polarization, violence and conflicts. While many Tanzanians have now supported the liberal political reforms, they are still very fearful of any political chaos that might result from open conflict. Those Tanzanians that tend to show high levels of support for competitive politics do so mainly because political competition in the country has not yet divided the nation or brought widespread violence. It can also be argued that, today, much of CCM's support comes not only from supporters for its development policies and confidence in its overall leadership, but also from many Tanzanians who I can refer to them as "Cautious Democrats" who see a vote for CCM as a vote for the peaceful political culture. Opposition parties have not been able to prove that they represent the same peaceful political culture as CCM, and on that end, they will not be able to enlarge their base of support among the Cautious Democrats in Tanzania.
     
  2. Kigogo

    Kigogo JF-Expert Member

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    umetumwa eeeh
     
  3. Joss

    Joss JF-Expert Member

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    Sep 5, 2010
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    Mpaka siku upigwe nondo,au kabari la misumari ndo utajua amani si nationalwide tu ni hata mitaani.
     
  4. K

    KipimaPembe JF-Expert Member

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    One important factor that this article does not cite is the relationship between conflicts and grand corruption. Recently it has been established that the main contributing factors to destabilization and conflicts in Africa is delegitimization of a state organs and corruption. Tanzania has remained stable for a long time mainly because Nyerere's leadership was not corruption tolerant. State organs was widely respected accross the country and it can be argued that this was the main reason why Tanzania has remained stable.

    Delegitimization of state organs happens when the general population has lost faith in state institutions; the Army, Police forces, the court, etc. These organs consciously or uncounsciously are involved in illegal acts or used to support illegal acts. It was during CCM's third phase government when people began to suspect that organized crime that was being perpetrated against financial institutions (banditry) was supported or at least condoned by the police force.

    Currently the court is riddled with corrupt practices to the extent that very few people believe that decisions taken by the court are impartial and are justice dispensed! Every government's major procurement deal is viewed by the population or Tanzanians to have been corruptly done because usually it fall short meeting peoples expectation. People have already lost faith in state institutions and they see their government as very corrupt. The current CCM government does not seem to care any more and this is pulling the country closer and closer to political instability. Kenya was viewed as being stable politically despite also facing the same destabilizing factors until grand corruption and delegitimization of state organs came to play their part and that's what ignited the 2007 election conflicts.

    Therefore Tanzania under the current government that condone Grand corruption and delegitimization of state organs is no longer far from political instability. It is bad that the article mention CUF and CHADEMA that they have polarizing policies without mentioning any instance of such polarizing policies within CUF and CHADEMA constitution or manifesto.

    It can rightly be argued that continued CCM rule will be dangerous to Tanzanina political stability since CCM currently is pursuing policies that seem to condone grand corruption and delegitimization of state organs; reasons that was cited by the Anaan team to have been the main factors that sparked Kenya's conflicts. CCM is currently more polarizing than Chadema and CUF and there are ample evidence to suggest that CCM has resorted into using racism to suppress competition within CCM. The case of Salim Ahmed Salim and Hussein Bashe can be cited as live and vivid examples of how CCM has began manipulating racism to suppress different political opinion within.

    That being the case, it can be argued that currently CCM is more dangerous to continued political stability. Political stability will not be maintained and will not be sustainable in the face of grand corruption and delegitimization of state organs as we see today.

    The article is a good historical reminder of why Tanzania has remained stable in the past, but not why Tanzania will remain to be stable in future!
     
  5. Abdulhalim

    Abdulhalim JF-Expert Member

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    lol,
    Malaria Sugu katotoa
     
  6. Kichuguu

    Kichuguu Platinum Member

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    Dah, Mchambuzi amerudi tena JF baada ya miaka kama mitatu hivi tangu alipojaribu kumnadi Lowasa lakini akishindwa na maji ya Richmond. Leo anakuja kuinandi CCM.


    Ngoja nikuambie ndugu yangu, "Those who sacrifice liberty for peace deserve none!!!"
     
  7. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

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    Sep 5, 2010
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    Kama haya yote yanayosemwa yanapaswa kuipa CCM sifa kwa amani, utulivu na upatano uliopo nchini na kwamba tusipuuzie uwepo wa CCM madarakani je ufisadi, wizi na uwepo wa mtandao mkubwa kabisa wa uhalifu (a major organized crime) ambayo imehusika na instability katika nchi za jirani haiwezi kuhusishwa na uwepo wa CCM hao hao?Hivi kweli wanaamini wakiendelea kutawala wanavyotawala sasa wanafikiri Tanzania itaendelea kuwa ya amani muda mrefu ujao? Amani mara zote ni zao la haki, lakini endapo wengi wataona kuwa haki zao zinawekwa pembeni hii amani itadumishwa kwa msingi gani hasa?

    Kama CCM iko tayari kupokea sifa kwa ajili ya amani iliyopo kwa sababu ni yenyewe iliyokuwako madarakani, basi iwe tayari kubeba lawama juu ya ufisadi uliokithiri kwani nao umetoka chini ya utawala wa CCM. Au wanachagua mazuri tu na hayo mengine yanaelezeka nje ya utawala wa CCM?
     
  8. sblandes

    sblandes JF-Expert Member

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    Sep 6, 2010
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    Tupige hatua mmoja zaidi,if we know our problems and the solutions why cant we resolve it know.?We are fed up being a talk show society and doing nothing visible,we need to have guts to do which we are supposed to do as free nation.Being a begger nation thats insult for our people,lets understand the basics of developing our nation before switching to sophiscated development agenda which leaders are dreaming but dont understand a, b, c of it.CCM government has failed to lead the nation to prosper,they keep on begging, and show nothing on the ground expect their bellies and posh cars,houses.The time is know to change for the better,empower our people with skills and money to run and control our economy.
     
  9. Technician

    Technician JF-Expert Member

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    Thank you sblandes for your Good analysis :
    Keep it up.
     
  10. S

    Selemani JF-Expert Member

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    Good read Mchambuzi. I agree with all you have said, CCM has invested a lot in uhuru, umoja, amani na mshikamano wa waTanzania. However, CCM have become complacent in the last years--they do not practice what they preach. One can argue that macroeconomics policies imposed by IMF in early 90s (Ridandasi) followed by rapid privatization caught CCM off guard and jumped into this grand corruption mode. The corruption then trickled down to regular government staff and that has effectively rendered government ineffective, despite its massive size. Mfano, wizara ya Afya is the richest when you consider the donor money thru SWAPs basket and the govt provisioned budget, but most of the health indicators are as low as other countries that spend much less on healthcare than we do. CCM has to understand they need to reform now, otherwise the unconditional support from Wananchi will disappear.

    Mistake from Wapinzani is they do not have a strong apparatus for governing. And they do not clearly spell out their economic plans that is alternative to CCM. Also, Mtanzania wa kawaida is wondering, if these guys don't even have a representative in remotest of areas--how are they going to govern effectively? If they keep on accepting sore losers from CCM primaries how are they telling us they are different from them? Upinzani will eventually catch up, but they need to create infrastructure bottom-up and spell out clearly why they are different from CCM. In all honest, if we can get a strong upinzani with 100 seats bungeni, then we will develop faster. CCM will be kept in check. We just need to maintain civility and Utanzania in our politics.

    But I can argue that we have one of the most matured democracy in whole of Africa. And it is something to be proud of. You think in Kagames Rwanda, Tanzania Daima lingekuwa hewani? or in Museveni Uganda, Malecela angepigwa chini kwenye primaries? We are a heck of democracy than we give ourselves credits, but upinzani needs kujipanga, because we need strong opposition for rapid eceonomic development and accountability from chama tawala.
     
  11. Abdulhalim

    Abdulhalim JF-Expert Member

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    Sep 7, 2010
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    It is funny CCM inawezaje ku-invest kwene amani , sijui mshikamano..Hapa nadhani ni uzandiki kuipa credit CCM pekee. Kabla ya mfumo wa vyama vingi the partysm did not matter kwa sababu ilikuwa ni part na parcel ya serikali na wananchi. Sasa kama ni amani na mshikamano ni WOTE tulishiriki kuijenga. Ni ukosefu wa shukran kuwapa CCM credit kwa kazi ambayo ilifanywa na kila mmoja wetu.

    To say the least, its ridiculous kusema CCM eti imeleta amani. Amani ya watz comes from personal common sense, watu wengi wako aware na ugumu wa maisha na umaskini wa kutupa unaowazunguka, sasa ktk hali kama hii wanajaribu kuishi hivohivo kwa matumaini kwamba ni heri nusu shari kuliko shari kamili. Lakini kwa spidi ya ufisadi uliopo sasa na kupotea kwa utaifa na uzalendo...ndivo hivohivo uvumilivu wa hawa watu unapozidi kuwa challenged. Sera za hovyo za CCM ambapo mgeni anaabudiwa kwa gharama ya mwenyeji, siku si nyingi tutashuhudia tunayoyashuhudia kwenye runinga zetu, pale wananchi 'wapole' na wanaochukuliwa kama 'wapenda amani' watakapoasi dhidi ya utawala dhalimu na kutaka nchi yao. It is obvious CCM are not aware kwamba machafuko mara nyingi source yake ni mgawanyo mbovu wa keki ya taifa, kadiri wanavyochelewa kutambua hili ndivo hivohivo the nearer is the breaking-point.

    Kama alivyosema 'Mchambuzi' asilimia kubwa ya watz wapo chini ya umri wa miaka 20, hii inamaana lile tabaka la akina sisi tulozaliwa kipindi cha awali linazidi kutoweka kwene uso wa dunia, hii ni uzalishaji wa jamii mpya yenye fikra mpya sio zile za ki-Nyerere au TANU. This new generation will not be content with 'umoja na mshikamano' over economic prosperity, na wala hatuezi ku-predict tabia na muono wao kuhusu maisha...na wala hatuwezi kuwa na uhakika kwamba wata-embrace fikra za u-TANU. Hii ni challenge mpya kwa CCM, ambayo haitaki kubadilika wala kushirikiana na watu waliopo nje ya kilinge chao.

    'Mchambuzi' anasema ati CUF na CHADEMA zinaleta siasa za makundi, labda anao ushahidi. Lakini with economic injustices kwene jamii, huko mbelelni vitajitokeza vikundi vya waziwazi ambavyo vitaprofess waziwazi kutetea maslahi ya sehemu tu ya jamii. Wa kulaumiwa hapa hawatakuwa CUF wala CHADEMA (provided bado vitakuwa vyama vya upinzani), bali CCM ambayo imeshaprove failure kwa sera zake zisizowasaidia wananchi.
     
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