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Warren Buffet Smart or lucky?...

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by Binti Maringo, Feb 9, 2010.

  1. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

    #1
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    Naona Nassim Taleb anatafuta umaarufu. Can you be this lucky jamani? $ 50 Billion fortune imekuwa build based on luck alone? Mathematicians au wazee wa Probability naomba jibu.

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    Is Warren Buffett really the genius so many say he is? ‘Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb has his doubts.
    'Black Swan' Author Nassim Taleb: Warren Buffett May Just Be Lucky

    Posted By: Alex Crippen | Executive Producer
    cnbc.com
    | 08 Feb 2010 | 06:18 PM ET
    Nassim Taleb says there isn't enough evidence to show that Warren Buffett's skill, and not his good luck, is responsible for the billionaire's enormous investing success over the decades.
    Taleb is the author who gained fame and fortune writing about 'Black Swans' and the impact of other improbable events ahead of the subprime mortgage market's collapse.
    In an "interrogation" interview that starts in the online magazine ai5000 and is continoed on its websit... Taleb is quoted as saying:
    "I don't want to spend too much time on Buffett. George Soros has 2 million times more statistical evidence that his results are not chance than Buffett does. Soros is vastly more robust. I am not saying Buffett doesn't have skill-I'm just saying we don't have enough evidence to say Buffett isn't doing it by chance."
     
  2. Yegomasika

    Yegomasika JF-Expert Member

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    Ni vyema kuwa na bahati halafu unakuwa Billionaire kuliko kuwa smart with nothing!.
     
  3. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    both..
    skills and lucky......
     
  4. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    binti maringo today ume ni impress sana....
    do you know Warren Buffet ndo my idol?????
     
  5. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

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    I think this guy is losing his mind for really or else hajafanya research yake abot Warren Buffet...Keep in mind Warren Buffett ametengeneza $ 50 billion kwa kununua na kuuza stocks. Hana business nyingine wala nini...... Anasema alijaribu kumiliki gas station ambayo ilikuwa his first business na akapata hasara...... Ndo maana akahamia kwenye stocks....... So yeye ana invest kwenye business za watu. ..........He never created his own business or company. Just buying and selling stocks....je na hapo utasema the guy amekuwa lucky tuuu?...
     
  6. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

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    He is my idol tuu...kama ulikuwa unasoma my post huko nyuma i have been saying for a while nataka kuwa like Warren Buffet version ya kike!....
     
  7. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    this show we got a lot in common.....
    but i will be africa richest man,you may second richest....
    no 1 spot is mine lol....
     
  8. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

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    you know you are very right we have a lot in common..we all believe in god as our mesiah and savior...and we both like warren buffet, like sea food,love to travell aroudn the world and both are smart indeed!....

    You are very wrong why would you choose that no1 spot wakati they always say women first?....
     
  9. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    ukiwa no 1....
    utakuwa na nyodo za kuni dump...
    but nikiwa mimi no 1,utataka kujua siri za mafanikio.
    so u will be at my side always,,,
    but for real i feel it in my blood.
    that i am gonna be in the forbes rich list in five years...
     
  10. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

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    that is good kuwa na ambitious na kuwa na imani kuwa one day you will make it to be on forbes magazine!.....i like that keep up with the spirit mpenzi...na sikuachi ng'oo mimi na wewe kufa na kuzikana (for better for worse)....nimeshajua kumbe kuna ulaji...LOL!.....
     
  11. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

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    I know how hard it to be lucky and successfully! ...Yaani Ms. Market here always do something to prove everybody wrong. Yaani unakuta ukinunua stock inashuka. Ukiuza inapanda. Yaani hadi unafikiri stock inakuangalia wewe move yako....but way to be sucessfull as Warren never back down/give up!....
     
  12. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    ooppps...
    mama aliniambia usiwaambie
    wasichana ndoto zako...
    now i remember....
    itabidi nitafute lawyer kabisa,
    mambo ya pre nups
     
  13. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

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    Oh no why prenups?...does that mean you don;t trust me at all?....mambo ya prenuptual hayo ni ya kizamani besides we both have similar dreams so why do you do this to me lakini eeh!...."chako changu mpenzi lakin i changu changu mwenyewe we dont share.."
     
  14. The Boss

    The Boss JF-Expert Member

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    ha ha ha ha..
    muulize tiger woods.....
    bado kidogo arudi kwenye umilionea
    atoke kwenye ubilionea....
     
  15. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Binti Maringo wewe umesoma "The Snowball", unafikiri bahati ile?

    Jamaa kaanza zamani sana, kanza enterpreneurial spirit in his early teens wakati anauza magazeti, akawa consinstent mpaka leo. They say when skills meet opportunity good luck happens.

    Bahati yake kuzaliwa Marekani na kuzaliwa mweupe katika middle class America na kuzaliwa muda aliozaliwa, the rest ni juhudi zake.
     
  16. m

    mgeniwadunia Member

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    Binti:
    Mi sio mathematician, lakini ukiangalia historia ya Buffet na Soros, utaona yakwamba Soros umeshafanya transactions nyingi sana, akilinganishwa na Buffet.

    If you toss a coin 100,000 times and get heads, chances are that the coin is loaded. If you toss it 10 times and get heads, that is chance (luck). Notice that Taleb is not saying that Buffet is just lucky. He is saying that he cannot prove that Buffet is NOT just lucky.
     
  17. k_u_l_i

    k_u_l_i Senior Member

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    Buffet investing style for the most part is very different from the mainstream investing. When he invests he does it big time and get fully involved with the stock/company's financials and even in making major decisions.
    Luck plays role in every aspect of life but Buffet cannot be classified as just lucky-he's the oracle.

    ¬K
     
  18. Binti Maringo

    Binti Maringo JF-Expert Member

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    Kilanga,K-u-l-i and Mgeni wa Dunia...Ndiyo maana nilikuwa na mawazo tofauti with Nassim Taleb...with Luck of evidence on Wrren Buffet....the guy has skills na pia he is lucky let lone be....Mambo ya stock bana hayana formular kabisa ni kama gambling you can either win or lose it...so unafanya at your own risk with that said huwezi kusema he is luck dude got skills and top of that smart thinker....

    Kiranga unajua nini hata sisi waafrica tupo smart ila sema tumatawaliwa sana na zile mentality kuwa white people are smart than us....i think wakati ule wa ukoloni na kuchukuliwa kuwa slaves kumetupumbaza sana tuu!.....
     
  19. k_u_l_i

    k_u_l_i Senior Member

    #19
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    Binti - sawa sawa ulivyosema kama kuweka pesa kwenye stock ni kamari. Katika historia ya Stock market watu wawili tu waweweza kutajirika kwa ku-invest kwenye individual stock alone. Mmoja wapo ni Buffet na tunaelewa ni kwa nini. Hata yeye mwenyewe amesema watu wa kawaida wa-invest kwenye index funds angalau itawarudishia 8%.

    Watu weupe/weusi/wekundu kuwa smart kuliko wengine ni tautalogy.

    ¬K
     
  20. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    "Tautalogy" ndiyo nini?
     
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