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Utafiti wa Synovate wabadilishwa kuisaidia CCM?

Discussion in 'Uchaguzi Tanzania' started by Invisible, Sep 14, 2010.

  1. Invisible

    Invisible Admin Staff Member

    #1
    Sep 14, 2010
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    Kuna taarifa kuwa Synovate wapo njiani kutoa matokeo ya maoni ya watanzania kuhusiana na uchaguzi 2010.

    Wasiwasi wangu ni kuwa bado watatumia sampuli ya watu 1,000 - 2,000 ambapo huenda wasipate uhalisia wa mambo ingawa report yao itaweza kutumiwa na baadhi ya wagombea kisiasa. Kwakuwa sijajua nini kitaongelewa basi fuatilia comments chini...

    Tutarajie nini?
     
  2. Ntemi Kazwile

    Ntemi Kazwile JF-Expert Member

    #2
    Sep 14, 2010
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    Hawa ni vibaraka wa CCM, matokeo yatakayotoka yatakuwa na lengo la kuijenga CCM zaidi kuliko kutaka kujua maoni ya Watanzania kuhusu uchaguzi ujao. Hapa tutarajie blah blah zisizo na mashiko
     
  3. M

    Mfwatiliaji JF-Expert Member

    #3
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    I doubt, however, if they will spin eventually it will backfire this time!
     
  4. K

    Kyachakiche JF-Expert Member

    #4
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    Watakuja na aina ya ramli inayofanana na ya Shekh Yahya.
     
  5. Kachanchabuseta

    Kachanchabuseta JF-Expert Member

    #5
    Sep 14, 2010
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    Hawa tunawajuwa wanatumiwa na CCM
    Utasikia wanasema CCM inakubalika 80%
     
  6. TIMING

    TIMING JF-Expert Member

    #6
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    Synnovate inajitahidi kukusanya data lakini nadhani kwa jinsi tuluvyo watanzania, mara nyingi ni wanafiki... we always say what someone wants to hear

    kwahiyo results zitategemea sana methodology na mindset ya researchers/data collectors

    sadly, the results wont matter much as the game outcome is almost certain predetermined and closed
     
  7. Nyambala

    Nyambala JF-Expert Member

    #7
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    Hawa jmaa wakitaka kuwa fair wafanye hiyo reporting yao kwenye ukumbi na maswali yaruhusiwe, pia iwe live on TV and radio! Lakni I smell a rat, all these years wanakuwaga wametoa utafiti wao hata kabla ya kampeni.

    Vipi REDET au wanasubiri waone joto ya hii!!!!!!!!!
     
  8. Luteni

    Luteni JF-Expert Member

    #8
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    Uzuri ni kwamba kwa sasa hali halisi inaonekana uwanjani tofauti na wakati uliopita, hata kama wakifanya spinning watakuwa wanajidangaya wao na watu wao. Mimi ninachoomba vyama na wagombea wao iwe CCM, Chadema au vyama vingine wasibweteke na matokeo yoyote yawe mazuri au mabaya, waendelee kuwafikia wananchi wengi zaidi na matokeo halisi yatapimwa tarehe 31/10.
     
  9. Profesy

    Profesy Verified User

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    Hapa nimekubali. Wabongo kazi yao ni kuogopa kwamba watu watawafunga wakichagua chama tofauti.:confused2:
     
  10. Zak Malang

    Zak Malang JF-Expert Member

    #10
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    Nauliza: Hivi hawa Synovate katika maswali yao watawataka wanaoulizwa kuweka pia into consideration kwamba mgombea JK alianguka jukwaani (not first time) na kwamba huenda afya yake ni kikwazo kuwa rais any more?
     
  11. The Son of Man

    The Son of Man JF-Expert Member

    #11
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    Kwa namba ya wapiga kura nchini na kama watatumia sample ya 1000 to 2000 nadhani haitakuwa na uwakilishi mzuri be it in favor of upinzani or tawala!
     
  12. SILENT WHISPER

    SILENT WHISPER JF-Expert Member

    #12
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    kosa wanalofanya hawa watafiti hawatoi sample size, including gender participation, mean age and standard deviation

    so that other researchers must test their hypothesis, as to whether it lies within the acceptance region or rejection region, that way no one cld just cook the stats.
     
  13. Mlalahoi

    Mlalahoi JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Sep 14, 2010
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    As a research student,nadhani wa kulaumiwa zaidi pindi matokeo ya utafiti ambayo yanapokinzana na hali halisi ni mtafiti na wala sio waliohojiwa katika utafiti husika.Tunaweza kuwalaumu "Watanzania" lakini ni vema lawama hizo zikabainisha "Watanzania wa aina gani" wanaopaswa kulaumiwa.Tatizo la opinion polls za Synovate na REDET lipo zaidi kwenye subjectivity ambapo taasisi hizo zinakuwa na pre-conceptions za matokeo,na maswali yao yanakuwa leading to specific responses.

    Hata kama mindsets za respondents ziko against ufisadi lakini kama researcher atakwepa kuuliza maswali ya kuchonoa hoja husika kwa undani ni dhahiri majibu yataonyesha ufisadi si kero kwa Watanzania.

    Tukumbuke kuwa wahojiwa sio wanaotengeneza maswali.Ikumbukwe pia kuwa wahojiwa hawahusiki katika kuchambua na kutafsiri findings.Tatizo kubwa la pollsters wetu ni kutaka findings zao ziendane na matarajio ya watawala.Bila kuwa na independent pollsters (kwa maana ya kutofungamana na upande wowote) na wanaojibidiisha kupunguza subjectivity (kuindoa completely ni kitu kigumu) matokeo ya polls hizo yatatoa majibu yasiyoendana na hali halisi.

    Kwa kweli binafsi sintakuwa hata na muda wa kufuatilia matokeo ya opinion polls za Synovate au REDET kwa vile hawa hawana tofauti na TBC,Daily News/Sunday News na Habari Leo au Uhuru na Mzalendo (including hao wanaojikomba akina Rai,etc).Sanasana watakachofanya ni kuonyesha kukubalika kwa CCM na Kikwete ni pungufu kidogo ya ilivyokuwa kwenye previous poll lakini si kwa kiwango cha kushindwa uchaguzi.
     
  14. TIMING

    TIMING JF-Expert Member

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    sio rahisi, unless kumetokea changes kubwa sana kwenye data colletion tactics and tools... the best way ya wao kupata honest feedback ni kuweka open ended questions na focus group discussions, otherwise ni kama zile zetu za form four, six na undergraduate... tunapika data iendane na hypothesis
     
  15. M

    Mkulima JF-Expert Member

    #15
    Sep 14, 2010
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    Invisible,

    Sample kuwa watu kati ya 1000 na 2000 sio tatizo kabisa na ndivyo wanavyofanya hata sehemu zingine. Ukiongeza sample kunaweza kuwa na faida ambayo ni ndogo sana na hivyo haiendani na cost ya kukusanya na ndio maana wengi wameona hiyo ya watu 2000 ni OK.

    Wanaweza kukusanya hata sample ya watu 20,000 ila wanachuja mpaka kupata hao 2000 ambao wanakuwa more representative ya Watanzania walivyo.

    Nitakubali kama kuna bias kwenye kukusanya data lakini sio uchache wa watu.

    wakija wakasema JK atashinda nafikiri hapa JF hapatatosha. Huo ni utafiti tu na unaweza kuwa usiwe sawa. Opinion poll ya uhakika ni Novemba mosi.
     
  16. The Finest

    The Finest JF-Expert Member

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    Nikiangalia idadi ya watu waliojiandikisha kupiga kura na idadi ya watu iliyotumika kwenye hiyo research i doubt kama figures zitakuwa ziko actual kwakuwa inawezekana idadi ya watu iliyotumika kufanya utafiti ni ndogo ukilinganisha na idadi ya watu watu waliojiandikisha na pia itategema na idadi ya miko waliyozunguka kufanya huo utafiti
     
  17. M

    Mfwatiliaji JF-Expert Member

    #17
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    Invisible,
    kama unaweza kuwasiliana nao, waeleze kwamba huu si muda wamwafaka wa kutoa matokeo yao, aidha wamewahi au tayari wamechelewa.. maana tunaelewa waegemeapo!!
    Sasa hivi nadhani utabiri hauhitajiki sana, unawachanganya wananchi. Nasema waachwe wapiga kura waamue wenyewe..
     
  18. M

    MWANALUGALI JF-Expert Member

    #18
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    utabiri wa shehe yahya,synovate na redet ni sawasawa! wakati shehe anatumia nguvu za giza kutabiri, synovate wanatumia nguvu ya fedha na redet nguvu ya watawala!!!!
    Utabiri wa wengi ni kwamba Waaminio mizimu hawatauona ufalme tena.
    mwaka 2005, mkwere alikuwa chaguo la mungu, sasa amekuwa chaguo la she yahya, nguvu za giza.
     
  19. Kibanga Ampiga Mkoloni

    Kibanga Ampiga Mkoloni JF-Expert Member

    #19
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    Nadhani watakuwa smart na hisi watasema mgombea Uraisi CCM ata shinda, Ila wata jikosha kwenye viti vya Ubunge na kutabiri kuwa upinzani unaweza kuchukua viti vingi zaidi kupita chaguzi zilizo pita. zaidi ya hapo amna mpya!
     
  20. Kibanga Ampiga Mkoloni

    Kibanga Ampiga Mkoloni JF-Expert Member

    #20
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    alafu cha ajabu humu jf tunamember karibia 2000 na kitu wananvisit kila siku lakini amna ata mmoja aliyewahi kuwaona hawa jamaa wakichukua data, inakuwaje? Au wanatumia utaalamu wa sheikh yahaya wanachukua data kamawale walinzi wa jk wasio onekana.
     
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