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US $ Vs Gold - Tuelimishwe

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by Zing, Aug 8, 2011.

  1. Zing

    Zing JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Aug 8, 2011
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    wataalmu wa uchumi na wenye data.
    je tanzania

    • Tuna reservse au kiasi gani cha asset au akiba pale BOT kilicho katika USD
    • Tuna reserve au kias gani cha aset na kiba pale BOT kilicho hifadghiwa kama GOLD.
    • kuna sera yeyote inayoguideguide mambo haya???
    • ina gain au inapoteza nini kutoka na mfumo wake wa reseve ulivyo sasa ?
    • Baada ya US kuondoloewa triple A nini implication yake kwa mambo ya finance kwa tanzania.( Import, export ,etc)
    Nimesoma jinsi wawekezaji mapato yao yanavyoshuka sababu ya kutetereka kwa USD na wakati huo huo kimbilio salama la saving na akiba kwa sasa ni Gold na hivyo kufaya thamani ya dhabau kupanda bei.

    Tupeni darasa wataaamu wa mambo ya fedha na uchumi
     
  2. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

    #2
    Aug 8, 2011
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    Zing,

    Sina data kamili ila kujibu maswali yako kwasasa kiwango cha reserve ya foreign currency hasa US dollar kimepungua kutoka $2.062 Billion to $1.727 Billion (June, 2011). Bank of Tanzania imekuwa inainject more dollar katika soko la fedha kuzuia shillingi isianguke. Kiwango cha gold reserve kilifutwa in 1990s kutokana na volatility of the asset katika soko la madini. Hivyo kwasasa hatuna reserve za dhahabu ndio sababu Zitto alipendekeza sasa tuanze kukusanya dhahabu kuboost thamani ya shillingi. Dhahabu kwa sasa imefikia $1700 na Tanzania inaonekana haifadiki lolote katika hili.

    Kuhusu policy zipo ila zilizopo sasa ni kuwa foreign currency reserve ndio inaonekana kama safe heaven asset. Hata hivyo taarifa za karibuni zinaishusha thamani ya dollar na kusababisha gold reserve to be more valuable. Isitoshe sijui sababu gani zilitufanya tukakubaliana na IMF , World Bank recommendation za kuuza dhahabu zetu wakati nchi zilizoendelea waliendelea na wanaendelea kuhodhi dhahabu katika balance sheet za nchi.

    Mfumo uliopo wa kushikilia dollar kama safe heaven una athari kama nchi husika ikianguka kiuchumi na tayari tumeshaanza kuziona athari hizo katika thamani yetu ya shillingi. Shillingi imekuwa volatile kwasababu dollar katika soko la biashara imekuwa ikikumbwa na misuko suko. Hilo limechangiwa na kusuasua kwa uchumi wa marekani. Kwa upande wa pili thamani ya dhahabu imekuwa ikipanda sana na kufikia $1700 kutoka $1513 mwaka 2005. Kushuka kwa thamani ya dollar duniani (na sio credit rating) kuna implication kubwa kwetu Tanzania. Rating downgrade ina athari kwa marekani na wakopeshaji wake kwani interest wanayolipa itabidi ibadilike. Hatari inakuja kwetu ikiwa marekani itafilisika (yaani kushindwa kulipa madeni yake). Kwani US dollar thamani yake inashuka na kusababisha nasi kupanda kwa gharama za maisha na bei za vitu mbali mbali.

    Ni wakati tukawa na a balanced approach yaani tukusanye dollar na gold reserve. Hilo litatusaidia kama US watafilisika tuwe na dhahabu zinaweza kutusaidia tusianguke kiuchumi.
     
  3. H

    Hardwood JF-Expert Member

    #3
    Aug 8, 2011
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    Thumbs up kaka!!! Umempa jamaa recipe nzuri sana...ashindwe mwenyewe kuelewa.
    Labda niongezee kwenye mahusiano yaliyopo kati ya US $ na GOLD na kwanini ni vizuri tuwe na GOLD reserve. Kwa kifupi US$ ikishuka thamani, GOLD inapanda thamani (yaani US$ and GOLD are inversely related in terms of value). Nina muda mchache kuelezea kwanini hii relationship iko hivi. Ila kikubwa cha kutambua ni kwamba yale mataifa au ma-FORBES ambao wana high financial intelligency wana-watch sana relationship kati ya US$ na GOLD ili wawe na correct timing ya wakati gani wabadilishe thamani ya utajiri wao uende kwenye US$ au uende kwenye GOLD ili kuepuka thamani ya utajiri wao isishuke!!!

    Kwa kifupi kiuchumi, ni aibu kubwa sana kwa benki kuu (BOT) kukosa akiba ya GOLD kwa sababu ya umuhimu wake kiuchumi. Mfano US$ reserves zilizoko BOT thamani yake imetikiswa sana na mtikikisiko wa uchumi wa dunia(coz US$ ilishuka thamani). Loss in value ya US$ reserves ingekuwa offset na GOLD reserves(coz gold price inakuwa juu wakati dola inaposhuka thamani). Maskini TANZANIA haina GOLD reserves.
     
  4. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Very good kaka that is why nashauri kuwe na balance approach inayoweza kuwa na uwezo wa kufanya market timing ili kuifanya sarafu isipoteze thamani na uchumi kuyumba. Kwasasa dollar ikiyumba utaona shillingi nayo inaenda kombo na hilo ni tatizo kwetu hasa uchumi wetu unaotegemea zaidi import kuliko exports. Gharama za uagizaji vitu zikipanda bei za vitu nchini vinapanda na gharama za maisha zinapanda na kusababisha maisha magumu.
     
  5. Zing

    Zing JF-Expert Member

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    Aug 9, 2011
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    Mdondoaji thanks wa maelezo. Sijui jamaa zetu wa mjengoni kama wanajiuliza maswali kama haya na wapo wenye mawazo na idea nzuri kama zako. Sijui gavana wetu na waziri wetu wa fedha wanamshuri nini JK kuhusu sera nzuri ya Financial reserve.




    Yote tisa mbaya zaidi ni gharama ya dhahabu ikipanda nchi haifaidiki. wanaofadika ni hao wachimbaji.
     
  6. Chamoto

    Chamoto JF-Expert Member

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    Hivi ni nani aliyekubali kuondoa gold reserve yote BOT, yaani madini tunayo lakini hatuna reserve, huu ni uendawazimu!
     
  7. M

    Mgalatia JF-Expert Member

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    Aug 9, 2011
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    Hivi hawa wasomi wetu hawalioni hili? Kama tunaenda hivyo tuelewe kuwa elimu yetu ina matatizo au kuna laana fulani inahitaji toba ya kitaifa iondolewe
     
  8. Zing

    Zing JF-Expert Member

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    Aug 9, 2011
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    Hawakosagi majibu ya kisiasa kuwa ushauri wa IMF au ushauri wa kitaalamu. Au labda waliona dhahabu inazidi kushuka beii wakajua mwaka 2011 bei ya dhahabu itakuwa kama mkaaa. Sasa nchi kama USA na Uk zina gold reseve nikichekesho Tanzania ina US $ reserve tu....

    Mwenye access ya karibu na Max Melo amuombe ampigie simu gavana au wahusika BOT kupata maoni yao ya kitaalam kwa nini Tanzania haina Gold reserve
     
  9. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Kumpigia simu gavana wanapoteza muda watajibiwa hizo ndio policy za nchi na mapendekezo ya IMF na World Bank. Vya kushangaza ni kwamba mabosi wa World Bank na IMF kama USA, France, Britain na wengineo wanamantain gold reserves sisi ndio hivyo tena. Labda wamuulize lini ameacha kuwa msomi na kuanza kuwa mwanasiasa anatuhuzunisha sie wanafunzi wake tuliokuwa tunamkubali sana!!!!
     
  10. kaygeezo

    kaygeezo Senior Member

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    Aug 10, 2011
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    I think i need a serious class about this :(
     
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