US Companies Financial Meltdown - Capitalism at its best?

and how can we forget Stan alipokuwa pale ML?

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In the accounting world, i know they make the distinction between pre-tax and post-tax.

For GS they need to make the distinction between pre-lawsuit and post-lawsuit.

GS forgot that they lived in the same financial pond as all of the others. They believed the "contained to subprime" myth, expecting their other lines of business to continue on as usual.

Surprise, surprise...Those braggarts will be paying big bucks to pension funds, et al., post-lawsuit.

Breaks my heart.

Are you expecting GS to be sued by Pension Funds, why?

In the backdrop of Sub-prime, governments have been calling for more regulations of the financial industry. But GS has been arguing that it would be unfair to banks like themselves, who have been doing much better than irresiponsible many, to be subjected to the same regulations. What is your take?
 
Are you expecting GS to be sued by Pension Funds, why?

In the backdrop of Sub-prime, governments have been calling for more regulations of the financial industry. But GS has been arguing that it would be unfair to banks like themselves, who have been doing much better than irresiponsible many, to be subjected to the same regulations. What is your take?


What Paulson wants: fifteen banks kick in a billion each of equity and three of financing into a fund to buy $60b of "bad" assets. The fund is an off-balance sheet SIV that does not mark to market. The assets are not seen or heard of again, until they are sold when the markets recover. The "good" assets are sold in one piece as an all stock transaction (no need for financing). The buyer can then slice it up if it wants to. No Treasury or Fed support for the "bad" assets.



What the fifteen banks want: Obviously a Fed/Treasury guarantee for the "bad" assets. Barring that, nothing to do with it. Why should they get the dregs and BofA get the good stuff for nothing? Why should they get a worse deal than wonder-boy Dimon? Its just not fair that he gets all the good press! Just because he had a crummy investment bank that never got into the bad stuff when it was so, so good!


Will Treasury get its way? Only if a Lehman bankruptcy creates immediate systemic risk. The irony, though, is that the Fed's alphabet-soup of liquidity programs eliminate the "immediate" systemic risk of Lehman failing. So why bail them out?

The secondary effect of a Lehman failure is, of course, wider credit spreads as fixed income investors face their first major bankruptcy. This is too diffuse an effect for a bailout to be in the fifteen banks' self-interest.
 
What Paulson wants: fifteen banks kick in a billion each of equity and three of financing into a fund to buy $60b of "bad" assets. The fund is an off-balance sheet SIV that does not mark to market. The assets are not seen or heard of again, until they are sold when the markets recover. The "good" assets are sold in one piece as an all stock transaction (no need for financing). The buyer can then slice it up if it wants to. No Treasury or Fed support for the "bad" assets.



What the fifteen banks want: Obviously a Fed/Treasury guarantee for the "bad" assets. Barring that, nothing to do with it. Why should they get the dregs and BofA get the good stuff for nothing? Why should they get a worse deal than wonder-boy Dimon? Its just not fair that he gets all the good press! Just because he had a crummy investment bank that never got into the bad stuff when it was so, so good!


Will Treasury get its way? Only if a Lehman bankruptcy creates immediate systemic risk. The irony, though, is that the Fed's alphabet-soup of liquidity programs eliminate the "immediate" systemic risk of Lehman failing. So why bail them out?

The secondary effect of a Lehman failure is, of course, wider credit spreads as fixed income investors face their first major bankruptcy. This is too diffuse an effect for a bailout to be in the fifteen banks' self-interest.

Would have thought that this is the primary concern. Setting up the 60Bn fund is still more of a quick fix aimed at curing symptoms rather than the underlying disease. The problem is closely related to the short-term focused renumeration mechanism to the bankers currently in place.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will burn so many people's fingers.
 
It is only few hours before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. If there is no deal between US Treasury and Bank of America before the opening of stock markets in far east, then it is over.

Barclays quits Lehman sale talks
BBC News Online

Barclays has pulled out of talks to buy most of troubled US investment bank Lehman Brothers, the BBC has learned.

The decision, which a source close to the talks said was unlikely to change, is a setback for the rescue effort.

Barclays walked away because it was unable to obtain guarantees in relation to financial commitments faced by Lehman when markets open on Monday.

The rescue effort is being coordinated by the US Treasury and the New York Federal Reserve.

In the light of the credit crunch and the parlous state of financial markets, Barclays feels it would be running a crazy risk if it took [Lehman's obligations] on without any protection right now

BBC business editor Robert Peston


Robert Peston's BBC blog
The US government had hoped to arrange a bailout under which other US investments banks - such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs - would finance a "bad bank" that would hold the most "toxic" investments of Lehman in the property and mortgage market.

The "good bank" or rest of the firm, including its investment and wealth management arms, would then be sold to another financial institution, for example Bank of America or the UK's Barclays.

Although such a deal would have cost the other investment banks millions, it might have restored confidence in the sector and avoided a sharp drop in the share price of all banks.

However, it appears that this plan is falling apart.

"In the light of the credit crunch and the parlous state of financial markets, Barclays feels it would be running a crazy risk if it took [Lehman's obligations] on without any protection right now," says BBC business editor Robert Peston.

'Too difficult to value'

"No other large firm should buy Lehman whole - its toxic real estate and securities are too difficult to value," said Professor Peter Morici of the business school of the University of Maryland.

"Only a fool would think he could fairly assess their value, unless those are assigned them a value of zero," he added.

Lehman is up for sale after it reported a $3.9bn (£2.2bn) quarterly loss last week amid concerns over its long term financial viability.

The firm's share price has plummeted as fears over its future have mounted.

Uncertainty

Unless a bailout deal can be arranged and another large bank steps up to buy the good bits of Lehman, the US firm may have to file for bankruptcy protection.

This would deal a severe blow to the global banking industry, which is based on the expectation that the other party will always honour its commitments.

Banks and regulators would have to unwind Lehman's complex deals with and obligations to other banks, which could take weeks or months and cause uncertainty in the whole financial system.

'Difficult decision'

Former Federal Reserve boss Alan Greenspan said the US government faces "very difficult decisions" over Lehman if it cannot secure a rescue deal that does not involve public funds.

"They [will then] have to make a very difficult decision as to whether or not they allow it to liquidate or they support it," he said.

Yet Mr Greenspan said it would be "unsustainable" for the government to bail-out every US bank that got itself into difficulty.

Predicting that Lehman would not be the last to require rescuing, Mr Greenspan added that this would not necessarily pose a problem.

"The ordinary course of financial change has winners and losers," he said.
 
Hawa jamaa wanapendekeza stocks na wanapublish all the time. But you invest in those risky assets aware that discretion is the better part of your valour.

MiratKad,

Miye nazungumzia insider information Bwana si Public Info ;)
 
MiratKad, Kuhani, GT,

Naomba nieleweke vema kuhusu Ubepari.

Ninapozungumzia ukatili wake, sina maana ya kuwa naupiga vita mfumo wa uchumi wa kibepari, bali ni vitendo vya watu wanaoushabikia ambao hufikia mahali uroho na ulafi ukawafanya wakose uungwana.

Halikadhalika, nausema ukali wake kwa jamii kama Tanzania ambazo hazijakaa chini kujifunza vizuri kuhusu mfumo huu kama vile tulivyokaa chini na kujifunza ujamaa ambao tunaona kuwa ni mfumo pekee wenye utu na uungwana!

Mifumo hii Ubepari, Ujamaa, Ukabaila kama mifumo haina matatizo zaidi ya utekelezaji wake na watu walio na nguvu za kiutendaji na kiutekelezaji kukosa nidhamu na kuishia kuifanya ionekane ne mifumo sumu kwa jamii!
 
Hawa waungwana by late Tues(EST) watakuwa kwisha kazi....GT shirika lako la ndege la Alitalia limesema halina mafuta, kuna kazi hapo.

Shukurani zimuendee Dubya na mabepari wenzake kwa kutufikisha hapa.
 
BOFA flicked 2 fingers at Lehman Brothers as well....!!
The end of the financial system as we know it.? It very well may be.

Bank of America Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co. are in talks about a possible combination of the two financial companies, according to an official with direct knowledge of the talks.

The person was not authorized to speak publicly because the discussions were ongoing. Spokesmen for Bank of America and Merrill Lynch did not return calls seeking comment.

Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America has the most deposits of any U.S. bank, while Merrill Lynch is the world's largest brokerage. A combination of the two would create a global banking giant to rival Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank in terms of assets.

Major banks and brokerages met this weekend with government officials to try to formulate a rescue of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The withdrawal of Bank of America, along with the pullout of Barclays PLC from the talks, raised the possibility that Lehman might be forced to file for bankruptcy protection.


Many market participants believe Merrill Lynch — the first of the major financial services firms to oust its CEO after the credit markets seized up last year — might have been the next firm to lose the confidence of its investors, counterparties and clients.

Lehman's shares fell a stunning 77 percent last week to $3.65 a share, but Merrill's also performed poorly, dropping 36 percent to $17.05.

Merrill Lynch, whose current chief executive is former New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain, is a more attractive takeover candidate to Bank of America than Lehman is, however, given its size, scope, and foothold in the retail market.

"This is the ultimate New York institution," said Jim Wilcox, professor of financial institutions at the University of California, Berkeley's Haas Business School. "Bank of America has had designs on Manhattan one way or another for some time."

And while Merrill's books are far from clean, there is less uncertainty about its financial health.

"It's awfully difficult to get anyone to take on a fundamentally insolvent instution. And if that's the concern that people had about Lehman, it's a much tougher sale," Wilcox said.

In July, Merrill sold its stake in financial news and data provider Bloomberg LP for $4.43 billion to raise capital, and then sold a huge chunk of its toxic asset-backed securities and issued new stock to raise another $8.5 billion.

Bank of America Corp. has tried many times to build a strong investment bank, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the business only to see it underperform.

"At Bank of America, their investment bank never really dominated any product area. Merrill Lynch is stronger," said Len Blum, managing director at Westwood Capital LLC and former managing director of Prudential Securities Inc.'s investment banking group.

After a massive drop in the investment bank's earnings in last year's third quarter, Bank of America's CEO Ken Lewis said during a conference call: "I never say never. But I've had all of the fun I can stand in investment banking at the moment. So to get bigger in it is not something I really want to do."

___
 
Would have thought that this is the primary concern. Setting up the 60Bn fund is still more of a quick fix aimed at curing symptoms rather than the underlying disease. The problem is closely related to the short-term focused renumeration mechanism to the bankers currently in place.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will burn so many people's fingers.


So, who is under imminent danger of collapse?

Lehman --> yes?
WaMu --> yes?
AIG --> yes?

Merrill --> getting there?
Citi --> getting there?

My guess. Come Monday, GS explodes higher. Everyone knows Hank Putin will protect his boys and make sure they weather this Katrina.
 
BOFA flicked 2 fingers at Lehman Brothers as well....!!
The end of the financial system as we know it.? It very well may be.

Bank of America Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co. are in talks about a possible combination of the two financial companies, according to an official with direct knowledge of the talks.


BTW Somehow the Harvard Endowment Fund made money this quarter... Conspiracy theories anyone.

The theory almost writes itself. Paulson, Dubbya, many of the big I-bank CEO's all went to Harvard.
 
Wall Street on alert: Lehman endgame

As bankruptcy looms for Lehman, regulators and top execs work to contain damage and calm markets. Fed expands lending to banks.

CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: September 14, 2008: 9:52 PM EDT

Lehman Brothers' stock, which fell another 13.5% Friday, is down 94% so far this year.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street remained on alert as hopes for a buyout of beleaguered Lehman Brothers faded and executives and regulators scrambled to stave off a broader financial crisis.

The Federal Reserve stepped in late Sunday night to try to calm the markets by announcing that it was expanding its lending to the banking industry.

The fate of Lehman, following weeks of speculation about its health, appeared grim after Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and British bank Barclays (BCS), both viewed as potential "white knights," pulled out of deal talks as of Sunday afternoon, according to sources.

A Lehman executive, who declined to be identified, told Fortune "this looks like the end."

Instead, Bank of America was reportedly in merger talks with Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), according to news reports. Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported that a deal, which could be worth about $40 billion, could come as early as Sunday night.

Hours earlier, Barclays had abandoned talks to buy Lehman (LEH, Fortune 500), a source close to the situation told CNNMoney.com.

Top Wall Street officials and federal regulators, who began meeting Friday, remained in talks on Sunday evening at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the hopes of devising a plan to save Lehman and allay fears that threatened to roil U.S. financial markets Monday.

"We're all still here, that should tell you something," a Fed official told Fortune.

Meanwhile, broader efforts to tackle problems plaguing the entire industry were underway.

The Federal Reserve announced a series of steps to support the financial markets. The Fed said it would expand its short-term lending to banks by starting to take all investment-grade debt as collateral - instead of just Treasurys and other high-grade securities.

"The steps we are announcing today, along with significant commitments from the private sector, are intended to mitigate the potential risks and disruptions to markets," said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

And a group of domestic and foreign banks were in talks to create a $50 billion fund to lend to troubled financial firms, according to the Associated Press.

But the scrambling provided little comfort to financial markets around the globe. As of Sunday evening, U.S. markets were headed for a steep selloff at the start of Monday's session.

Futures in the Dow Jones industrial average, as well as the broader Nasdaq composite and the Standard & Poor's 500 were as much as 3% lower, before paring some of their losses.

Investors already started piling into safe-haven Treasuries as the yield on the benchmark 10-year note dipped to 3.565% from 3.72% late Friday.

That nervousness also spread to the currency markets as the dollar eased against both the euro and the yen.

Adding to those concerns was news that insurance giant AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) planned to unveil a restructuring plan that will include the sale of part of its business to raise cash and boost investors' confidence, according to a published report.

Investors are also likely to await more data about troubled savings and loan Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500), which sought to provide assurance about capital levels on Thursday.

Lehman dark and light
Still, much of the market's focus ahead of Monday was on the endgame for Lehman.

Two widely rumored outcomes were the creation of a so-called good bank/bad bank option that would divide Lehman into separate entities, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Another would involve others helping Lehman dissolve in an orderly way to try to stave off a cascade of problems at companies that do business with the firm.

But the abandonment of Barclays and Bank of America left a Lehman Brothers bankruptcy a very real threat. As of Sunday evening, the Wall Street firm was reportedly on the verge of filing for protection.

Separately, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association staged a special trading session so that big brokers could limit their Lehman Brothers risks.

The session was called "to reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. bankruptcy," according to a statement on the ISDA's Web site.

Lehman - one of the nation's largest and oldest investment banks - has suffered a dramatic and rapid descent. Its shares, which sold for as much as $67 in the past 12 months, have plummeted 94% this year and now trade at $3.65.

In the past six months, the company has reported $6.7 billion in losses due largely to bad bets on real estate. At the same time, concern is growing about problems throughout the financial sector.

Race against the clock
Investors are anxiously awaiting an announcement regarding what is next for Lehman. The hope is that some solution can be agreed upon by early Monday morning in the U.S. - before financial markets open in Europe. Most Asian markets are closed for a holiday Monday.

A source with knowledge of the meetings told CNN that representatives of several major financial institutions have been meeting with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner to discuss Lehman and the volatile state of the financial markets.

On Saturday, several heads of big Wall Street banks, including Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain, were seen entering and leaving the offices of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

According to several reports, other financial firms are said to be reluctant to contributing their own funds to help keep Lehman's more toxic assets afloat without the assurance that the government would backstop Lehman's bad loans.

However, a source close to the situation told CNN Friday that the Treasury Department was adamantly against using any government money to help finance a takeover, restructuring or bailout of Lehman.

Top banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve, faced heavy criticism from lawmakers following the bailout of Bear Stearns in mid-March.

The Fed helped engineer a fire sale of the firm to JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), agreeing to put taxpayer funds at risk by guaranteeing $29 billion's worth of potential losses on Bear Stearns' portfolio.

A chaotic week for Lehman and Wall Street
The talks continue after what has been one of the most tumultuous weeks ever on Wall Street.

Things first started to unravel at Lehman Tuesday following reports that talks between the state-run Korea Development Bank, who was rumored to be interested in buying a stake in Lehman, had ended.

That, combined with the threat of a downgrade by some of the credit ratings agencies, led to a bloody sell-off in the firm's stock.

Hoping to finally put all the rumors to rest, the company released its third-quarter results more than a week in advance on Wednesday, booking a nearly $4 billion loss and announcing a drastic restructuring plan. Investors were unconvinced though and the sell-off in Lehman shares continued, with the stock plunging 42% on Wednesday.

By Thursday evening, it was widely reported that Lehman was actively seeking a buyer for the entire firm. The company reportedly reached out to a number of suitors, including Bank of America and Barclays.

Speculation also surfaced Friday that J.C. Flowers & Co. and other private equity firms may bid for all or parts of Lehman. Current regulatory restrictions prevent buyout firms from owning a bank outright, although the Federal Reserve has eyed loosening those restrictions as bank failures pile up.

But as Friday wore on without any news of a deal, Lehman's stock wound up falling another 13.5%. Shares plunged 77% over the course of the week, setting the stage for regulators to call upon banking executives to get together Friday night and begin talking about ways to hash out an end to the Lehman crisis.

End of an era for Wall Street icon
If Lehman is sold or broken up, it would mark the end for one of Wall Street's oldest and most well-known firms. Getting its start as a modest cotton-trading firm in Montgomery, Ala., in 1850 by German immigrant brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, the firm saw its fortunes rose and fell along with the rest of Wall Street.

After World War II, Lehman's profile grew as it advised such household American companies as Ford, Campbell Soup and Philip Morris on deals, before expanding overseas into Europe and Asia in the 1960s and 1970s.

The firm also became a breeding ground for high-profile dealmakers. Both Steve Schwarzman and Pete Peterson, co-founders of the private equity giant Blackstone Group, worked for Lehman in the early 1980s.

But Lehman's rise was cut short in April of 1984, when the company agreed to be purchased by Shearson/American Express for $360 million. The company emerged independent just seven years later, albeit in much weaker shape than it was before.

It was around that time, however, that CEO Richard Fuld Jr., assumed the helm at Lehman and the firm went public after splitting off from American Express (AXP, Fortune 500).

Known for his direct approach and staunch loyalty to the firm, Fuld transformed Lehman in the decade that followed from a lowly bond trading house into a worthy adversary of larger investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Still there were bumps along the way for the long-time Lehman chief, including the Russian credit crisis and the painful collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in the late 1990s.

Fuld was quick to remind investors of those painful days and subsequent comeback during a conference call Wednesday, just after the company revealed its nearly $4 billion third-quarter loss.

"This firm has a history based on adversity and delivering," said Fuld. "We have a long track record of pulling together when times are tough."

But the obstacles Lehman faced this time around may prove too tough for Fuld to overcome.

CNN Wires and Fortune's Roddy Boyd and Telis Demos contributed to this report.

First Published: September 14, 2008: 9:38 AM EDT
 
It makes sense to consider that it might happen in light of all the bad economic news that's making headlines these days. Taratibu Lehman Brothers nayo inakwenda na maji nani mwingine atafuatia. CEOs wengi wanazungumzia kuhusu world wide depression nyuma ya pazia hawataki kuwaogopesha walala hoi wengi. It is important to remember that when the stock market crashed in 1929 the depression didn't really hit until around 1931. So are we heading down that road? Any opinion(s)?

Greenspan miaka kumi iliyopita alisema Bofya HAPA
 
Now the Lehman rescue has collapsed na Merril Lynch inauzwa!

Lehman rescue fails, BofA seen buying Merrill​

By JOE BEL BRUNO, CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER and MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Business Writers
45 minutes ago


NEW YORK - A failed plan to rescue Lehman Brothers was followed Sunday by more seismic shocks from Wall Street, including an apparent government-brokered takeover of Merrill Lynch by the Bank of America.


A forced restructuring of the world's largest insurance company, American International Group Inc., also weighed heavily on global markets as the effects of the 14-month-old credit crisis intensified.

A global consortium of banks, working with government officials in New York, announced late Sunday a $70 billion pool of funds to lend to troubled financial companies. The aim, according to participants who spoke to The Associated Press, was to prevent a worldwide panic on stock and other financial exchanges.

Ten banks — Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS — each agreed to provide $7 billion "to help enhance liquidity and mitigate the unprecedented volatility and other challenges affecting global equity and debt markets."

The Federal Reserve also chipped in with more largesse in its emergency lending program for investment banks. The central bank announced late Sunday that it was broadening the types of collateral that financial institutions can use to obtain loans from the Fed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the discussions had been aimed at identifying "potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses."

Futures pegged to the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 300 points in electronic trading Sunday evening, pointing to a sharply lower open for the blue chip index Monday morning. Asian stock markets were also falling.

Lehman Brothers may be forced to seek an orderly unwinding of its businesses. All potential buyers walked away after the U.S. Treasury refused to budge on its refusal to provide any takeover aid, as it had done six months ago when Bear Stearns faltered and earlier this month when it seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Expectations that the 158-year-old Lehman would survive dimmed after Barclays PLC withdrew its bid to buy the investment bank. Barclays and Bank of America were considered front-runners to buy Lehman, which is foundering under the weight of $60 billion in soured real estate holdings.

Insurer AIG, hit hard by deterioration in the credit markets, said Sunday it is reviewing its operations and discussing possible options with outside parties to improve its business after a week when its stock dropped 45 percent amid concerns about the company's financial underpinnings. It was working with New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo and a representative of the governor's office through the weekend to craft a solution that protects policyholders, according to Dinallo's spokesman David Neustadt.

Merrill Lynch, another investment bank laid low by the crisis that was triggered by rising mortgage defaults and plunging home values in the U.S., agreed to be acquired by Bank of America for $29 a share, according to the Wall Street Journal. That's a premium to its closing price on Friday of $17.05 but only a fraction of its price of almost $100 a share early in 2007.

Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America has the most deposits of any U.S. bank, while Merrill Lynch is the world's largest brokerage. A combination of the two would create a global financial giant to rival Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank in terms of assets.

The deal would not come without risks, however. Merrill Lynch, like many of its Wall Street peers, has been struggling with tight credit markets and billions of dollars in assets tied to mortgages that have plunged in value. Merrill has reported four straight quarterly losses.

And Bank of America's own finances are far from robust. As consumer credit deteriorates, the bank has seen its profits decline, and the company is still in the midst of absorbing the embattled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial, which it acquired in January.

The stunning weekend developments took place as voters, who rank the economy as their top concern, prepare to elect a new president in seven weeks.

The weekend's developments will likely spur a much greater focus by presidential candidates — Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama — and members of Congress on the need for stricter financial regulation.

Samuel Hayes, finance professor emeritus at Harvard Business School, said the current administration may get a lot of blame for the situation, which could benefit Obama.

"Just the psychological impact of this kind of failure is going to be significant," he said. "It will color people's feelings about their well-being and the integrity of the financial system."

Paulson was huddled through the weekend at the New York Federal Reserve's fortress-like building in downtown Manhattan with executives from major banks and investment houses to hash out the fate of Lehman Brothers and to staunch the bleeding on Wall Street that threatened to shatter investor confidence around the globe.

"It's clear we're one step away from a financial meltdown," said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of the consulting firm RGE Monitor.

The meetings that began Friday night were a who's who of financial heavyweights: Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs, including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s John Thain.

For all their efforts, Lehman appeared ready to file for bankruptcy.

The end of Lehman may not stop the financial crisis that has gripped Wall Street for months, analysts said. More investment banks could disappear soon.

The independent broker-dealers "are going the way of the dodo bird," said Bert Ely, an Alexandria, Va.-based banking consultant.

That's partly because some of the firms, particularly Merrill, made bad bets on real estate. But several analysts said that investment companies will need the deep pockets of commercial banks to survive the next few years.

Roubini said with no deal for Lehman, Merrill and the other investment firms would have been hit with a "run on the bank," as hedge funds and other clients withdraw funds and banks become reluctant to lend to them. Many of the investment banks rely on short-term loans to finance their day-to-day operations.

The cost of insuring financial firms' debt from default has been soaring.

A rise in the cost of the insurance, known as credit default swaps, indicates debt holders believe there is a greater chance of default by the financial companies. Especially over the past week, those insurance costs have been increasing rapidly as more debt holders fear companies like Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual Inc. could collapse and not be able to repay their debt.

Swaps on most financial firms are likely to get even worse during the upcoming week, analysts said.

On Sunday, there was also an emergency trading session being held at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to "reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy." The ISDA, which arranges trades for derivatives, said it was allowing customers to make trades and unwind positions linked to Lehman — but that those trades would be

Roubini said it's difficult to accurately gauge the health of companies like Merrill because their financial health depends on how they value complex securities. As a result, their finances aren't very transparent, he said.

That can lead to a loss of confidence in the financial markets, he said, which can overwhelm an investment bank even if it is financially healthy by some measures.

"Once you lose confidence, the fundamentals matter less," he said.

Ely said similar shake-outs have happened in other parts of the financial industry, such as credit cards and thrifts. Bank of America acquired independent credit card issuer MBNA in 2005, for example, while credit card company Capital One Financial Corp. has diversified itself by purchasing regional banks in Louisiana, Texas and New York.

The common denominator of the financial crisis, analysts said, is the bursting of the housing bubble. Home prices have dropped on average 25 percent so far. Roubini predicted they could drop another 15 percent.

The crisis has begun to slow the broader economy as banks make fewer loans and consumers have begun cutting spending. Many economists are now forecasting that the economy could slip into recession by the end of this year and early next year.

That, in turn, could cause additional losses for commercial banks on credit cards, auto loans and student loans.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 2 percent, below inflation, when it meets Tuesday. It was possible, however, that the central bank might decide in coming weeks to cut rates if such a move is seen as needed to calm turbulent financial markets.

The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier this year that total losses from the credit crisis could reach almost $1 trillion. So far, banks have only taken about $350 billion in losses.

Commercial banks are also starting to feel the pinch. Eleven have closed so far this year, including Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bank, which had $32 billion in assets and $19 billion in deposits.

Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, a research firm, predicts that approximately 110 banks with $850 billion in assets could close by next July. That's out of 8,400 federally insured institutions, he said, which together hold $13 trillion in assets.

Individual customers are starting to get nervous about the financial health of their banks for the first time in generations, he said. Whalen's firm analyzes the safety and soundness of banks for business clients, but began receiving inquiries from individuals in the past two months for the first time, he said.

"If we don't get ahead of this, we are going to face a run on the retail banks by election day," he said.

[media]http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/financial_meltdown[/media]
 
Kipindi iki ndio kizuri sana cha kununua gold na silver.....who knows....hali hii itaendelea mpaka lini?
 
So, who is under imminent danger of collapse?

Lehman --> yes?
WaMu --> yes?
AIG --> yes?

Merrill --> getting there?
Citi --> getting there?


My guess. Come Monday, GS explodes higher. Everyone knows Hank Putin will protect his boys and make sure they weather this Katrina.

Going, going, gone. Terrifying! And the worst is still to come.
 
Wall Street on alert: Lehman endgame

As bankruptcy looms for Lehman, regulators and top execs work to contain damage and calm markets. Fed expands lending to banks.

CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: September 14, 2008: 9:52 PM EDT

Lehman Brothers' stock, which fell another 13.5% Friday, is down 94% so far this year.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street remained on alert as hopes for a buyout of beleaguered Lehman Brothers faded and executives and regulators scrambled to stave off a broader financial crisis.

The Federal Reserve stepped in late Sunday night to try to calm the markets by announcing that it was expanding its lending to the banking industry.

The fate of Lehman, following weeks of speculation about its health, appeared grim after Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and British bank Barclays (BCS), both viewed as potential "white knights," pulled out of deal talks as of Sunday afternoon, according to sources.

A Lehman executive, who declined to be identified, told Fortune "this looks like the end."

Instead, Bank of America was reportedly in merger talks with Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), according to news reports. Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported that a deal, which could be worth about $40 billion, could come as early as Sunday night.

Hours earlier, Barclays had abandoned talks to buy Lehman (LEH, Fortune 500), a source close to the situation told CNNMoney.com.

Top Wall Street officials and federal regulators, who began meeting Friday, remained in talks on Sunday evening at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the hopes of devising a plan to save Lehman and allay fears that threatened to roil U.S. financial markets Monday.

"We're all still here, that should tell you something," a Fed official told Fortune.

Meanwhile, broader efforts to tackle problems plaguing the entire industry were underway.

The Federal Reserve announced a series of steps to support the financial markets. The Fed said it would expand its short-term lending to banks by starting to take all investment-grade debt as collateral - instead of just Treasurys and other high-grade securities.

"The steps we are announcing today, along with significant commitments from the private sector, are intended to mitigate the potential risks and disruptions to markets," said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

And a group of domestic and foreign banks were in talks to create a $50 billion fund to lend to troubled financial firms, according to the Associated Press.

But the scrambling provided little comfort to financial markets around the globe. As of Sunday evening, U.S. markets were headed for a steep selloff at the start of Monday's session.

Futures in the Dow Jones industrial average, as well as the broader Nasdaq composite and the Standard & Poor's 500 were as much as 3% lower, before paring some of their losses.

Investors already started piling into safe-haven Treasuries as the yield on the benchmark 10-year note dipped to 3.565% from 3.72% late Friday.

That nervousness also spread to the currency markets as the dollar eased against both the euro and the yen.

Adding to those concerns was news that insurance giant AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) planned to unveil a restructuring plan that will include the sale of part of its business to raise cash and boost investors' confidence, according to a published report.

Investors are also likely to await more data about troubled savings and loan Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500), which sought to provide assurance about capital levels on Thursday.

Lehman dark and light
Still, much of the market's focus ahead of Monday was on the endgame for Lehman.

Two widely rumored outcomes were the creation of a so-called good bank/bad bank option that would divide Lehman into separate entities, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Another would involve others helping Lehman dissolve in an orderly way to try to stave off a cascade of problems at companies that do business with the firm.

But the abandonment of Barclays and Bank of America left a Lehman Brothers bankruptcy a very real threat. As of Sunday evening, the Wall Street firm was reportedly on the verge of filing for protection.

Separately, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association staged a special trading session so that big brokers could limit their Lehman Brothers risks.

The session was called "to reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. bankruptcy," according to a statement on the ISDA's Web site.

Lehman - one of the nation's largest and oldest investment banks - has suffered a dramatic and rapid descent. Its shares, which sold for as much as $67 in the past 12 months, have plummeted 94% this year and now trade at $3.65.

In the past six months, the company has reported $6.7 billion in losses due largely to bad bets on real estate. At the same time, concern is growing about problems throughout the financial sector.

Race against the clock
Investors are anxiously awaiting an announcement regarding what is next for Lehman. The hope is that some solution can be agreed upon by early Monday morning in the U.S. - before financial markets open in Europe. Most Asian markets are closed for a holiday Monday.

A source with knowledge of the meetings told CNN that representatives of several major financial institutions have been meeting with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner to discuss Lehman and the volatile state of the financial markets.

On Saturday, several heads of big Wall Street banks, including Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain, were seen entering and leaving the offices of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

According to several reports, other financial firms are said to be reluctant to contributing their own funds to help keep Lehman's more toxic assets afloat without the assurance that the government would backstop Lehman's bad loans.

However, a source close to the situation told CNN Friday that the Treasury Department was adamantly against using any government money to help finance a takeover, restructuring or bailout of Lehman.

Top banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve, faced heavy criticism from lawmakers following the bailout of Bear Stearns in mid-March.

The Fed helped engineer a fire sale of the firm to JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), agreeing to put taxpayer funds at risk by guaranteeing $29 billion's worth of potential losses on Bear Stearns' portfolio.

A chaotic week for Lehman and Wall Street
The talks continue after what has been one of the most tumultuous weeks ever on Wall Street.

Things first started to unravel at Lehman Tuesday following reports that talks between the state-run Korea Development Bank, who was rumored to be interested in buying a stake in Lehman, had ended.

That, combined with the threat of a downgrade by some of the credit ratings agencies, led to a bloody sell-off in the firm's stock.

Hoping to finally put all the rumors to rest, the company released its third-quarter results more than a week in advance on Wednesday, booking a nearly $4 billion loss and announcing a drastic restructuring plan. Investors were unconvinced though and the sell-off in Lehman shares continued, with the stock plunging 42% on Wednesday.

By Thursday evening, it was widely reported that Lehman was actively seeking a buyer for the entire firm. The company reportedly reached out to a number of suitors, including Bank of America and Barclays.

Speculation also surfaced Friday that J.C. Flowers & Co. and other private equity firms may bid for all or parts of Lehman. Current regulatory restrictions prevent buyout firms from owning a bank outright, although the Federal Reserve has eyed loosening those restrictions as bank failures pile up.

But as Friday wore on without any news of a deal, Lehman's stock wound up falling another 13.5%. Shares plunged 77% over the course of the week, setting the stage for regulators to call upon banking executives to get together Friday night and begin talking about ways to hash out an end to the Lehman crisis.

End of an era for Wall Street icon
If Lehman is sold or broken up, it would mark the end for one of Wall Street's oldest and most well-known firms. Getting its start as a modest cotton-trading firm in Montgomery, Ala., in 1850 by German immigrant brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, the firm saw its fortunes rose and fell along with the rest of Wall Street.

After World War II, Lehman's profile grew as it advised such household American companies as Ford, Campbell Soup and Philip Morris on deals, before expanding overseas into Europe and Asia in the 1960s and 1970s.

The firm also became a breeding ground for high-profile dealmakers. Both Steve Schwarzman and Pete Peterson, co-founders of the private equity giant Blackstone Group, worked for Lehman in the early 1980s.

But Lehman's rise was cut short in April of 1984, when the company agreed to be purchased by Shearson/American Express for $360 million. The company emerged independent just seven years later, albeit in much weaker shape than it was before.

It was around that time, however, that CEO Richard Fuld Jr., assumed the helm at Lehman and the firm went public after splitting off from American Express (AXP, Fortune 500).

Known for his direct approach and staunch loyalty to the firm, Fuld transformed Lehman in the decade that followed from a lowly bond trading house into a worthy adversary of larger investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Still there were bumps along the way for the long-time Lehman chief, including the Russian credit crisis and the painful collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in the late 1990s.

Fuld was quick to remind investors of those painful days and subsequent comeback during a conference call Wednesday, just after the company revealed its nearly $4 billion third-quarter loss.

"This firm has a history based on adversity and delivering," said Fuld. "We have a long track record of pulling together when times are tough."

But the obstacles Lehman faced this time around may prove too tough for Fuld to overcome.

CNN Wires and Fortune's Roddy Boyd and Telis Demos contributed to this report.

First Published: September 14, 2008: 9:38 AM EDT

Thanks for the news...now whats your take on the subject?
 
It makes sense to consider that it might happen in light of all the bad economic news that's making headlines these days. Taratibu Lehman Brothers nayo inakwenda na maji nani mwingine atafuatia. CEOs wengi wanazungumzia kuhusu world wide depression nyuma ya pazia hawataki kuwaogopesha walala hoi wengi. It is important to remember that when the stock market crashed in 1929 the depression didn't really hit until around 1931. So are we heading down that road? Any opinion(s)?


It was the Bernanke Doctrine (think Bush doctrine, Sarah). Preemptive merger prior to short waveers taking down the next one.

Hey, that's pretty good--The Bernanke Doctrine: It is within my power to direct the merger of any entity or entities that, in the absence of said merger, would threaten the stability of the financial system.

BTW--you geniuses are forgetting about WaMu. Maybe next Friday? Or does the FDIC have the assets? Bove says it'll cost 40B plus.
Greenspan miaka kumi iliyopita alisema Bofya HAPA


MJOMBA, Greenspan's arguments are absurd.


He blames an excess of global savings that started pushing down long rates in the early 90s as the source of these bubbles, and becaused the Fed couldn't control these long rates, they couldn't stop the bubbles.



a) Long rates began declining in the early 90s because of the appearance of a marked disinflationary trend. This took a lot of economists by surprise at the time. The distinct possibility of lower inflation in the future is precisely the sort of thing that would push down long rates.



b) Greenspan could have stopped these incipient bubbles dead in their tracks by not using monetary policy to abort the business cycle and engineer the much celebrated "soft landing" in the mid 90s. This is similar to the first signs seen in the Japanese bubble economy where the old business cycle of booms and busts suddenly seemed not to apply.



c) Greenspan had a second chance to quash all these bubbles by not implementing the infamous "Greenspan Put" during the Asian financial crisis later in the 90s. US stocks had been soaring prior to that and then began to nosedive. Greenspan cut rates to, once again, abort a recession and equities responded by rocketing straight into interstellar space.



We saw a similar pattern after the dot.com bust. Extreme monetary stimulus. New bubble.


To even mention excesses of global savings as a cause of these bubbles is patently absurd when the US Central Bank goes into emergency reinflationary easy money blasting mode everytime a bubble begins to deflate.


IMO Greenspan is disingenuous and deceitful for reasons that I suspect are purely self-serving.


In the end, however, all these bubbles are the result of this widespread deeply-rooted belief in a dangerous economic fantasy -- the idea that Fed can use monetary stimulus to avoid recessions.


They cannot. They can only postpone them by creating economic distortions and asset bubbles that piles recession on top of recession some day in the future.


But in the short-term, people love bubbles. So they loved Greenspan for giving them bubbles. And they wanted even more.

So I think Greenspan liked the attention and gave them what they wanted.Another typical yahudi...nilianza kusoma kile kitabu chake cha kwanza sijakimaliza juzi naona anapromote kingine. By the way naona hapa kwenye CNBC screens za ma brokers zimeanza kuturn red....

Cantwait for NY closing bell
 
Now the Lehman rescue has collapsed na Merril Lynch inauzwa!

Lehman rescue fails, BofA seen buying Merrill​

By JOE BEL BRUNO, CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER and MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Business Writers
45 minutes ago


NEW YORK - A failed plan to rescue Lehman Brothers was followed Sunday by more seismic shocks from Wall Street, including an apparent government-brokered takeover of Merrill Lynch by the Bank of America.



"If we don't get ahead of this, we are going to face a run on the retail banks by election day," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/financial_meltdown















Ahhhh well....lets see







• Impact on pension funds and their obligation

• Fewer IB means hedge's choices are getting narrowed. They can't pit IB against each other now. This result in higher commission and interest rate paid on their margin loan.


• Hedge fund's margin recall


• The above leads to commodity bust


• Commodity bust damages the collateral


• The above problems causes marked-to market to be applied


• Which in turn forces banks to raise lot more capitol


• FED is running out of good capitol (treasury bonds for swap)



• That is sudden surge in demand for $


• Sudden surge in $ causes technology companies to book less profit or even losses due to exchange rate problem on their cumulative foreign savings


• This leads to Nasdaq crash in October once the earnings season gets into.


• Meanwhile WaMu causes lots for bank run.


• Bank run causes the banks to announce that they don't have hard currency at their disposal to meet customers demand.


• Main stream media picks up this news and plays that there is no $ and all deposits are already used to rescue FRE, FNM, BS, AIG, WM and on.


• Suddenly mass starts screaming.


• Ben calms the market saying that he has been printing money for the past one year and he is arranging the KC130s to air drop them.


• Mass doesn't believe it and starts windrowing as much as possible.



• Banks go BK causing them fore-close their credit card obligation.


• Shops start decline credit card payments and ask the customer to pone up the cash upfront.



• Cash transaction every where means lower revenue collections for states and state and municipalities going belly-up.



• Every things leads to evaporation of lots of service sector jobs.


• Americans realize that manufacturing, farming and hard labor jobs are the way to go and look for those....well JK gets a call from OBAMA ( wakati huo ni rais) asking for advice on sustainable farming forgeting kuwa sisi we were not interested in farming tangu UHURU
 
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