Game Theory
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- Sep 5, 2006
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and how can we forget Stan alipokuwa pale ML?
In the accounting world, i know they make the distinction between pre-tax and post-tax.
For GS they need to make the distinction between pre-lawsuit and post-lawsuit.
GS forgot that they lived in the same financial pond as all of the others. They believed the "contained to subprime" myth, expecting their other lines of business to continue on as usual.
Surprise, surprise...Those braggarts will be paying big bucks to pension funds, et al., post-lawsuit.
Breaks my heart.
Are you expecting GS to be sued by Pension Funds, why?
In the backdrop of Sub-prime, governments have been calling for more regulations of the financial industry. But GS has been arguing that it would be unfair to banks like themselves, who have been doing much better than irresiponsible many, to be subjected to the same regulations. What is your take?
What Paulson wants: fifteen banks kick in a billion each of equity and three of financing into a fund to buy $60b of "bad" assets. The fund is an off-balance sheet SIV that does not mark to market. The assets are not seen or heard of again, until they are sold when the markets recover. The "good" assets are sold in one piece as an all stock transaction (no need for financing). The buyer can then slice it up if it wants to. No Treasury or Fed support for the "bad" assets.
What the fifteen banks want: Obviously a Fed/Treasury guarantee for the "bad" assets. Barring that, nothing to do with it. Why should they get the dregs and BofA get the good stuff for nothing? Why should they get a worse deal than wonder-boy Dimon? Its just not fair that he gets all the good press! Just because he had a crummy investment bank that never got into the bad stuff when it was so, so good!
Will Treasury get its way? Only if a Lehman bankruptcy creates immediate systemic risk. The irony, though, is that the Fed's alphabet-soup of liquidity programs eliminate the "immediate" systemic risk of Lehman failing. So why bail them out?
The secondary effect of a Lehman failure is, of course, wider credit spreads as fixed income investors face their first major bankruptcy. This is too diffuse an effect for a bailout to be in the fifteen banks' self-interest.
Hawa jamaa wanapendekeza stocks na wanapublish all the time. But you invest in those risky assets aware that discretion is the better part of your valour.
Would have thought that this is the primary concern. Setting up the 60Bn fund is still more of a quick fix aimed at curing symptoms rather than the underlying disease. The problem is closely related to the short-term focused renumeration mechanism to the bankers currently in place.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will burn so many people's fingers.
BOFA flicked 2 fingers at Lehman Brothers as well....!!
The end of the financial system as we know it.? It very well may be.
Bank of America Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co. are in talks about a possible combination of the two financial companies, according to an official with direct knowledge of the talks.
So, who is under imminent danger of collapse?
Lehman --> yes?
WaMu --> yes?
AIG --> yes?
Merrill --> getting there?
Citi --> getting there?
My guess. Come Monday, GS explodes higher. Everyone knows Hank Putin will protect his boys and make sure they weather this Katrina.
Wall Street on alert: Lehman endgame
As bankruptcy looms for Lehman, regulators and top execs work to contain damage and calm markets. Fed expands lending to banks.
CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: September 14, 2008: 9:52 PM EDT
Lehman Brothers' stock, which fell another 13.5% Friday, is down 94% so far this year.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street remained on alert as hopes for a buyout of beleaguered Lehman Brothers faded and executives and regulators scrambled to stave off a broader financial crisis.
The Federal Reserve stepped in late Sunday night to try to calm the markets by announcing that it was expanding its lending to the banking industry.
The fate of Lehman, following weeks of speculation about its health, appeared grim after Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and British bank Barclays (BCS), both viewed as potential "white knights," pulled out of deal talks as of Sunday afternoon, according to sources.
A Lehman executive, who declined to be identified, told Fortune "this looks like the end."
Instead, Bank of America was reportedly in merger talks with Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), according to news reports. Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported that a deal, which could be worth about $40 billion, could come as early as Sunday night.
Hours earlier, Barclays had abandoned talks to buy Lehman (LEH, Fortune 500), a source close to the situation told CNNMoney.com.
Top Wall Street officials and federal regulators, who began meeting Friday, remained in talks on Sunday evening at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the hopes of devising a plan to save Lehman and allay fears that threatened to roil U.S. financial markets Monday.
"We're all still here, that should tell you something," a Fed official told Fortune.
Meanwhile, broader efforts to tackle problems plaguing the entire industry were underway.
The Federal Reserve announced a series of steps to support the financial markets. The Fed said it would expand its short-term lending to banks by starting to take all investment-grade debt as collateral - instead of just Treasurys and other high-grade securities.
"The steps we are announcing today, along with significant commitments from the private sector, are intended to mitigate the potential risks and disruptions to markets," said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
And a group of domestic and foreign banks were in talks to create a $50 billion fund to lend to troubled financial firms, according to the Associated Press.
But the scrambling provided little comfort to financial markets around the globe. As of Sunday evening, U.S. markets were headed for a steep selloff at the start of Monday's session.
Futures in the Dow Jones industrial average, as well as the broader Nasdaq composite and the Standard & Poor's 500 were as much as 3% lower, before paring some of their losses.
Investors already started piling into safe-haven Treasuries as the yield on the benchmark 10-year note dipped to 3.565% from 3.72% late Friday.
That nervousness also spread to the currency markets as the dollar eased against both the euro and the yen.
Adding to those concerns was news that insurance giant AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) planned to unveil a restructuring plan that will include the sale of part of its business to raise cash and boost investors' confidence, according to a published report.
Investors are also likely to await more data about troubled savings and loan Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500), which sought to provide assurance about capital levels on Thursday.
Lehman dark and light
Still, much of the market's focus ahead of Monday was on the endgame for Lehman.
Two widely rumored outcomes were the creation of a so-called good bank/bad bank option that would divide Lehman into separate entities, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Another would involve others helping Lehman dissolve in an orderly way to try to stave off a cascade of problems at companies that do business with the firm.
But the abandonment of Barclays and Bank of America left a Lehman Brothers bankruptcy a very real threat. As of Sunday evening, the Wall Street firm was reportedly on the verge of filing for protection.
Separately, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association staged a special trading session so that big brokers could limit their Lehman Brothers risks.
The session was called "to reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. bankruptcy," according to a statement on the ISDA's Web site.
Lehman - one of the nation's largest and oldest investment banks - has suffered a dramatic and rapid descent. Its shares, which sold for as much as $67 in the past 12 months, have plummeted 94% this year and now trade at $3.65.
In the past six months, the company has reported $6.7 billion in losses due largely to bad bets on real estate. At the same time, concern is growing about problems throughout the financial sector.
Race against the clock
Investors are anxiously awaiting an announcement regarding what is next for Lehman. The hope is that some solution can be agreed upon by early Monday morning in the U.S. - before financial markets open in Europe. Most Asian markets are closed for a holiday Monday.
A source with knowledge of the meetings told CNN that representatives of several major financial institutions have been meeting with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner to discuss Lehman and the volatile state of the financial markets.
On Saturday, several heads of big Wall Street banks, including Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain, were seen entering and leaving the offices of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
According to several reports, other financial firms are said to be reluctant to contributing their own funds to help keep Lehman's more toxic assets afloat without the assurance that the government would backstop Lehman's bad loans.
However, a source close to the situation told CNN Friday that the Treasury Department was adamantly against using any government money to help finance a takeover, restructuring or bailout of Lehman.
Top banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve, faced heavy criticism from lawmakers following the bailout of Bear Stearns in mid-March.
The Fed helped engineer a fire sale of the firm to JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), agreeing to put taxpayer funds at risk by guaranteeing $29 billion's worth of potential losses on Bear Stearns' portfolio.
A chaotic week for Lehman and Wall Street
The talks continue after what has been one of the most tumultuous weeks ever on Wall Street.
Things first started to unravel at Lehman Tuesday following reports that talks between the state-run Korea Development Bank, who was rumored to be interested in buying a stake in Lehman, had ended.
That, combined with the threat of a downgrade by some of the credit ratings agencies, led to a bloody sell-off in the firm's stock.
Hoping to finally put all the rumors to rest, the company released its third-quarter results more than a week in advance on Wednesday, booking a nearly $4 billion loss and announcing a drastic restructuring plan. Investors were unconvinced though and the sell-off in Lehman shares continued, with the stock plunging 42% on Wednesday.
By Thursday evening, it was widely reported that Lehman was actively seeking a buyer for the entire firm. The company reportedly reached out to a number of suitors, including Bank of America and Barclays.
Speculation also surfaced Friday that J.C. Flowers & Co. and other private equity firms may bid for all or parts of Lehman. Current regulatory restrictions prevent buyout firms from owning a bank outright, although the Federal Reserve has eyed loosening those restrictions as bank failures pile up.
But as Friday wore on without any news of a deal, Lehman's stock wound up falling another 13.5%. Shares plunged 77% over the course of the week, setting the stage for regulators to call upon banking executives to get together Friday night and begin talking about ways to hash out an end to the Lehman crisis.
End of an era for Wall Street icon
If Lehman is sold or broken up, it would mark the end for one of Wall Street's oldest and most well-known firms. Getting its start as a modest cotton-trading firm in Montgomery, Ala., in 1850 by German immigrant brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, the firm saw its fortunes rose and fell along with the rest of Wall Street.
After World War II, Lehman's profile grew as it advised such household American companies as Ford, Campbell Soup and Philip Morris on deals, before expanding overseas into Europe and Asia in the 1960s and 1970s.
The firm also became a breeding ground for high-profile dealmakers. Both Steve Schwarzman and Pete Peterson, co-founders of the private equity giant Blackstone Group, worked for Lehman in the early 1980s.
But Lehman's rise was cut short in April of 1984, when the company agreed to be purchased by Shearson/American Express for $360 million. The company emerged independent just seven years later, albeit in much weaker shape than it was before.
It was around that time, however, that CEO Richard Fuld Jr., assumed the helm at Lehman and the firm went public after splitting off from American Express (AXP, Fortune 500).
Known for his direct approach and staunch loyalty to the firm, Fuld transformed Lehman in the decade that followed from a lowly bond trading house into a worthy adversary of larger investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Still there were bumps along the way for the long-time Lehman chief, including the Russian credit crisis and the painful collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in the late 1990s.
Fuld was quick to remind investors of those painful days and subsequent comeback during a conference call Wednesday, just after the company revealed its nearly $4 billion third-quarter loss.
"This firm has a history based on adversity and delivering," said Fuld. "We have a long track record of pulling together when times are tough."
But the obstacles Lehman faced this time around may prove too tough for Fuld to overcome.
CNN Wires and Fortune's Roddy Boyd and Telis Demos contributed to this report.
First Published: September 14, 2008: 9:38 AM EDT
It makes sense to consider that it might happen in light of all the bad economic news that's making headlines these days. Taratibu Lehman Brothers nayo inakwenda na maji nani mwingine atafuatia. CEOs wengi wanazungumzia kuhusu world wide depression nyuma ya pazia hawataki kuwaogopesha walala hoi wengi. It is important to remember that when the stock market crashed in 1929 the depression didn't really hit until around 1931. So are we heading down that road? Any opinion(s)?
It was the Bernanke Doctrine (think Bush doctrine, Sarah). Preemptive merger prior to short waveers taking down the next one.
Hey, that's pretty good--The Bernanke Doctrine: It is within my power to direct the merger of any entity or entities that, in the absence of said merger, would threaten the stability of the financial system.
BTW--you geniuses are forgetting about WaMu. Maybe next Friday? Or does the FDIC have the assets? Bove says it'll cost 40B plus.
Greenspan miaka kumi iliyopita alisema Bofya HAPA
MJOMBA, Greenspan's arguments are absurd.
He blames an excess of global savings that started pushing down long rates in the early 90s as the source of these bubbles, and becaused the Fed couldn't control these long rates, they couldn't stop the bubbles.
a) Long rates began declining in the early 90s because of the appearance of a marked disinflationary trend. This took a lot of economists by surprise at the time. The distinct possibility of lower inflation in the future is precisely the sort of thing that would push down long rates.
b) Greenspan could have stopped these incipient bubbles dead in their tracks by not using monetary policy to abort the business cycle and engineer the much celebrated "soft landing" in the mid 90s. This is similar to the first signs seen in the Japanese bubble economy where the old business cycle of booms and busts suddenly seemed not to apply.
c) Greenspan had a second chance to quash all these bubbles by not implementing the infamous "Greenspan Put" during the Asian financial crisis later in the 90s. US stocks had been soaring prior to that and then began to nosedive. Greenspan cut rates to, once again, abort a recession and equities responded by rocketing straight into interstellar space.
We saw a similar pattern after the dot.com bust. Extreme monetary stimulus. New bubble.
To even mention excesses of global savings as a cause of these bubbles is patently absurd when the US Central Bank goes into emergency reinflationary easy money blasting mode everytime a bubble begins to deflate.
IMO Greenspan is disingenuous and deceitful for reasons that I suspect are purely self-serving.
In the end, however, all these bubbles are the result of this widespread deeply-rooted belief in a dangerous economic fantasy -- the idea that Fed can use monetary stimulus to avoid recessions.
They cannot. They can only postpone them by creating economic distortions and asset bubbles that piles recession on top of recession some day in the future.
But in the short-term, people love bubbles. So they loved Greenspan for giving them bubbles. And they wanted even more.
So I think Greenspan liked the attention and gave them what they wanted.Another typical yahudi...nilianza kusoma kile kitabu chake cha kwanza sijakimaliza juzi naona anapromote kingine. By the way naona hapa kwenye CNBC screens za ma brokers zimeanza kuturn red....
Cantwait for NY closing bell
Now the Lehman rescue has collapsed na Merril Lynch inauzwa!
Lehman rescue fails, BofA seen buying Merrill
By JOE BEL BRUNO, CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER and MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Business Writers
45 minutes ago
NEW YORK - A failed plan to rescue Lehman Brothers was followed Sunday by more seismic shocks from Wall Street, including an apparent government-brokered takeover of Merrill Lynch by the Bank of America.
"If we don't get ahead of this, we are going to face a run on the retail banks by election day," he said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/financial_meltdown
Ahhhh well....lets see
• Impact on pension funds and their obligation
• Fewer IB means hedge's choices are getting narrowed. They can't pit IB against each other now. This result in higher commission and interest rate paid on their margin loan.
• Hedge fund's margin recall
• The above leads to commodity bust
• Commodity bust damages the collateral
• The above problems causes marked-to market to be applied
• Which in turn forces banks to raise lot more capitol
• FED is running out of good capitol (treasury bonds for swap)
• That is sudden surge in demand for $
• Sudden surge in $ causes technology companies to book less profit or even losses due to exchange rate problem on their cumulative foreign savings
• This leads to Nasdaq crash in October once the earnings season gets into.
• Meanwhile WaMu causes lots for bank run.
• Bank run causes the banks to announce that they don't have hard currency at their disposal to meet customers demand.
• Main stream media picks up this news and plays that there is no $ and all deposits are already used to rescue FRE, FNM, BS, AIG, WM and on.
• Suddenly mass starts screaming.
• Ben calms the market saying that he has been printing money for the past one year and he is arranging the KC130s to air drop them.
• Mass doesn't believe it and starts windrowing as much as possible.
• Banks go BK causing them fore-close their credit card obligation.
• Shops start decline credit card payments and ask the customer to pone up the cash upfront.
• Cash transaction every where means lower revenue collections for states and state and municipalities going belly-up.
• Every things leads to evaporation of lots of service sector jobs.
• Americans realize that manufacturing, farming and hard labor jobs are the way to go and look for those....well JK gets a call from OBAMA ( wakati huo ni rais) asking for advice on sustainable farming forgeting kuwa sisi we were not interested in farming tangu UHURU