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The JK popularity Paradox

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by PELE, May 3, 2010.

  1. P

    PELE JF-Expert Member

    #1
    May 3, 2010
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    The JK popularity Paradox digg



    [​IMG] President Jakaya Kikwete

    By Lucas Liganga and Bernard James
    President Jakaya Kikwete’s consistent high ratings in opinion polls in which his Cabinet ministers and other government officials have generally scored poorly among the respondents, is somewhat of a political paradox in the run-up to the General Election in October.

    That the President is headed for re-election with a resounding majority to his second and final five-year term is not in doubt, as those sampled in the various polls have approved of his performance. The only irony is that the national chairman of Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is placed far ahead of his principal assistants, and yet they are his appointees.
    The question some observers, including political analysts and scientists have been grappling on Mr Kikwete’s runaway popularity amid the numerous challenges faced by his government is how come a general can retain the confidence of the people while the army he heads is virtually losing the battle.

    Some critics have even suggested that the poll results are probably being cooked to portray Mr Kikwete as the most preferred presidential candidate in this year’s election.

    The debate was heightened last week by the latest opinion poll by the Research and Education for Democracy in Tanzania (Redet) Institute of the University of Dar es Salaam, which gave Mr Kikwete a confidence rating of a record 89.7 per cent. Vice-President Ali Mohamed Shein scored 79.9 per cent, and Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda had 83.9 per cent, but the ministers managed only 25.7 per cent.

    The poll also showed that 60 per cent of the 232 MPs elected in the various constituencies, and who mostly belong to CCM, would have lost their seats had elections been held last month, when the opinion poll was conducted.
    Contacted for comment by the Sunday Citizen on the apparent paradox of the popular President who leads an unpopular team, a cross section of leaders, some academics and other analysts gave mixed views.
    The Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s office for Parliamentary Affairs, Mr Philip Marmo, faulted the findings of the Redet poll, questioning the methodology.
    Mr Marmo said: “I also get surprised about the results because it is the ministers who perform on behalf of the President. The government executes its duties in a collective manner.”


    The MP for Mbulu in Manyara region added: “There is a problem of perception of ordinary people on how the government works. I think the respondents in the opinion polls do not know the actual situation. It is very possible that they believe everything is being done by one person.”
    But on a parting note, the minister said he respects the views of the people, as they have a right to express their opinions.

    While State House Assistant Press Secretary Premy Kibanga did not wish to explain why Mr Kikwete is rated higher than his Cabinet, she said he was, indeed, a good performer who kept his promises.
    Citing the findings of the poll, she said health and education were some of the areas where the progress made had earned the President a lot of mileage.

    “The President is fulfilling what he promised at a level the wananchi appreciate,” she told the Sunday Citizen.
    “The fact that women, who experience more difficulties in life than men, appear satisfied with the President’s leadership than men, is a clear manifestation of a leader who is performing.”
    The executive secretary of Agenda Participation 2000, a non- governmental organisation working in the fields of democracy, culture, governance and conflict resolution, Mr Moses Malaba, said: “It is possible that either the questions asked by Redet or the sampling were not appropriate.”

    He added: “The questions were too general. The people must be asked another question to make them substantiate why they think the performance of the President is high.”
    There was a danger, he warned, of the people confusing a personality cult with the level of performance.

    “As an individual, the people who love him see him as a very good person and they sometimes fail to distinguish between this and his performance in the government.”

    The CCM secretary for publicity and ideology, Mr John Chiligati, said people were impressed with the implementation of the party’s election manifesto under President Kikwete’s leadership.
    Mr Chiligati, who is also the minister for Lands, Housing and Human Settlements, defended his Cabinet colleagues, saying they were doing their level best to improve the provision of water, health and education and build infrastructure.

    In response to a query on Redet’s independence in carrying out its opinion polls, of its officials, Dr Benson Bana, denied that the research institute was pro-government.
    “We are very impartial and candid. We conduct our researches professionally without any bias.”
    Dr Bana said the high approval ratings for the President confirmed that people have confidence him and not his ministers.
    “The people are not ignorant. They have eyes to see all,” he said, adding: “When Redet opinion polls showed that approval ratings for the President were low in 2007 and 2008, we were praised by the same people who are accusing us today. They said Redet was doing a wonderful job.”

    But the Civic United Front (CUF) chairman, Prof Ibrahim Lipumba, who is also a prominent economist, said the poll was not logical.
    “How could the President score an impressive rating while the poll shows that his subordinates have performed very poorly?”

    A philosophy lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Azaveri Lwaitama, said: “The Redet polls were like polls in the West, which were only designed to help politicians.”
    He added: “There is nothing wrong with Redet. They asked strategic questions and they got answers.”
    Faulting the research, Dr Lwaitama said the polls had been designed to encourage people to choose what they were familiar with.

    “If one examines the way the polls are conducted one finds there is no paradox in President Kikwete’s popularity,” he said.

    Dr Lwaitama said it would be better for Redet to stop mentioning personalities when conducting its opinion polls and focused on candidates’ qualities and issues facing the country.
    CUF Nominated MP Ismail Jussa Ladhu dismissed the Redet poll as “a practical joke”, questioning the research institute’s credibility.

    He said President Kikwete’s administration was a one-man-show, claiming that major decisions in regions or districts awaited him and were made by him during his visits upcountry.
     
  2. Abdulhalim

    Abdulhalim JF-Expert Member

    #2
    May 3, 2010
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    Wajinga ndio waliwao..
     
  3. Buchanan

    Buchanan JF Diamond Member

    #3
    May 3, 2010
    Joined: May 19, 2009
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    REDET wako highly strategic! Siku za nyuma wanadai eti umaarufu wa JK ulishuka, ghafla mwaka wa uchaguzi umaarufu unapanda! Halafu eti watz walio wengi wanapata taarifa kupitia DAILY NEWS! Ukiconnect dots; vitisho vya watakaompinga JK kuonja mauti, Tsh 40bn za kampeni, JK hajaingia Ikulu bado?
     
  4. Abdulhalim

    Abdulhalim JF-Expert Member

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    I don't blame '100%' this REDET thingy..its a pity kwamba this wahenga magic still works

    \njaa ni mwanakharamu\..
     
  5. M

    Mkandara Verified User

    #5
    May 3, 2010
    Joined: Mar 3, 2006
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    Wakuu zangu,
    Mimi sioni makosa yoyote ktk hizi kura za maoni kwa sababu hata mimi mwenyewe nimefuatilia swala hili kiyanguvyangu na kugundua kwamba:-
    1. Asilimia kubwa ya Watanzania wanaamini kabisa kwamba JK anaangushwa na wasaidizi wake (Mawaziri wake)..
    2. Kuna Asilimia kubwa pia wanaamini kwamba Lowassa was a better PM, ni fitna tu za watu ndizo zilimwangusha (incl. Richmond)
    3. Mkapa sii popular lakini was the better President than any...(Perfomance).
    4. Kina Shein, Pinda, Mwandosya, Mwanri, Membe, kind likes wote, hawa ni weak leaders hawana mvuto hawafai..
    5. Mbunge bora na anayependwa ni yule aliyeleta maendeleo jimboni mwake, kwa kutumia fedha toka mfukoni mwake.. ie. Lowassa na Mkono.
    6. Kuna maendeleo makubwa sana. Tanzania leo imepiga hatuambele kuliko wakati wowote haswa ktk sekta za - Uhuru wa Kuongea na Biashara.

    Haya ni baadhi tu ya maswala machache ambayo wananchi niliokutana nao wamekuwa wakiyapa sifa tofauti kabisa na matumaini yangu ama niseme mtazamo wangu. Wakuu zangu amini msiamini haya ndio mawazo ya Wadanganyika....wasomi wetu wenye akili ya vitabu wasijue nini maana ya uongozi bora..

    Hivyo naamini kabisa kwamba matokeo ya REDET yanaweza kabisa kuwa halali hasa ukizingatia kwamba wananchi wengi wanaamini JK anaangushwa na wasaidizi wake... hivyo, Popular vote inawezekana kabisa kabisa kuwa juu na kibaya zaidi ni kwamba rais wa Tanzania huchaguliwa kutokana na Umaarufu wa mgombea (Popular vote) sio Uchaguzi mkuu wa Wabunge (Electral vote) kumpa kiti rais wa nchi..

    Sehemu pekee ambayo napingana na REDET ni pale waliposema kwamba kama Uchaguzi ungefanyika March 2010, JK na CCM wangeibuka washindi hali utafiti wa REDET unasema theruthi mbili (2/3) ya Wabunge wangeshindwa. Sasa unaposema 2/3 ya Wabunge wangeshindwa, wakati CCM ndiyo yenye Wabunge wengi hii inge maanisha CCM wangepoteza majimbo mengi hivyo kuwanyima ushindi..Ajabu ya REDET ni pale tu inapoonyesha ushindi kwa CCM hata baada ya kupoteza asilimia kubwa ya wabunge wake..Uchaguzi mkuu haufanyiki baina ya wagombea wawili toka CCM bali ni CCM against Upinzani, tunaposema 2/3 ya Wabunge watashindwa uchaguzi mkuu, basi utafiti huu ulitakiwa kusema Jk angeshinda uchaguzi na CCM itashindwa.
     
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