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Tathmini Arumeru mashariki yaibeba CHADEMA.

Discussion in 'Chaguzi Ndogo' started by Concrete, Mar 31, 2012.

  1. C

    Concrete JF-Expert Member

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    CHADEMA-59% CCM-41% *VIGEZO ULINGANIFU VILIVYOTUMIKA(Comparison criteria) @UPEPO wa kisiasa(Chadema 64%,CCM36%) @Uwezo wa WAGOMBEA(Chadema 64%, CCM36%) @Mafanikio ktk KAMPENI(Chadema65%,CCM35%) @MTAJI wa wapigakura(Chadema37%, CCM63%) @Nguvu ya WAPIGA DEBE(Chadema63%, CCM37%) @Vyombo vya HABARI(Chadema52%, CCM48%) @Makundi JAMII(Chadema60%, CCM40%) @SERA mvuto(Chadema63%, CCM37%) @HAMASA za kampeni(Chadema65%, CCM35%) @MAANDALIZI ya uchaguzi(Chadema60%, CCM40%) *SOURCE: Wachambuzi na wadadisi wa mambo ya kisiasa,kwa msaada wa tathmini za vikao vya ndani kutoka vyama vyote viwili mpaka kufikia tarehe 28/3/2012.
     
  2. v

    vngenge JF-Expert Member

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    Good analysis, though is not a guarantee!
     
  3. M

    Mchomamoto Senior Member

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    Basi heri mkubwa!!ngoja tuone baada ya dk 90 ushindi utakuwaje?
     
  4. GeniusBrain

    GeniusBrain JF-Expert Member

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    Hayo mengine yote yana amuliwa na maandishi yenye rangi nyekundu, tunashukuru kutuambia kuwa CDM tayari imeshindwa kwani haina mtaji wa wapiga kura

     
  5. OSOKONI

    OSOKONI JF-Expert Member

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    ungeweka wazi hao wachambuzi wa siasa , sample size ya huo utafiti na analyzed data
     
  6. bucho

    bucho JF-Expert Member

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  7. Mwita Maranya

    Mwita Maranya JF-Expert Member

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    Kama mgombea wa chadema atapata 59% na wa ccm akapata 41%, jumla ya hawa wawili inakuwa ni 100%

    Lakini ni ukweli kwamba Arumeru mashariki kuna wagombea wanane, je wale wagombea wengine sita wasiotajwa kwa ujumla watapata 0% ya kura? Hii tathmini haionyeshi uhalisia wowote.
     
  8. Shardcole

    Shardcole JF-Expert Member

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    Hata bila ya hizo tafiti ukweli utabaki pale pale kuwa CDM ndo mshindi wa Arumeru na Nassary ndo mbunge wa Arumeru.
    Source: tarh 1 aprl.
     
  9. Feedback

    Feedback JF-Expert Member

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    Mwita Maranya siwezi kuamini ama kutoamini kuwa utafiti umefanyika, ila namjibia hizo percentage 59% na 41% ulizohoji kuwa total ni 100%. Kwenye statistics huwa kuna sample error range (+ or -) wakati mwingine % zingine zinakuwa negligible, kwa mfano kama sample error ni +/- 1% na kuna chama kimepata 0.5% basi kinaweza kumezwa na percentage zingine.
     
  10. Mwita Maranya

    Mwita Maranya JF-Expert Member

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    Feedback,
    Nimekupata lakini ni vizuri tukajitahidi kuwa realistic.

    Nimekuwa nikiwasiliana na watu wangu walioko arumeru wananihakikishia ushindi kwa chadema.
    Lakini tukizungumzia utafiti ni lazima tuwe makini sana. Kwa mfano anaposema chadema wana mtaji wa kura 37% na ccm 63% anarefer matokeo ya 2010 ambayo huwezi kuneglect kura za wagombea wengine wakati walikuwa na kura nyingi tu.
     
  11. C

    Concrete JF-Expert Member

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    @Huu ni uchambuzi ulinganifu kwa vyama viwili tu.Vyama vingine vimepuuziwa(ignored) kwa makusudi kwa sababu kuu mbili: 1/Ushindani wao hafifu kiuchambuzi(<1%) 2/Kukosekana kwa information za kutosha zinazowahusu.
     
  12. Feedback

    Feedback JF-Expert Member

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    Mwita Maranya nakuelewa, hapa mimi sizungumzii ushindi nazungumzia statistics kama somo kuna vitu vingine huwa vina kuwa negligible katika kutoa report ya jumla hasa kwa vyombo vya habari, huwezi kusema chama X kilishinda kwa asilimia 61.823615% simply unasema kilishinda kwa 62%.
     
  13. Bazazi

    Bazazi JF-Expert Member

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    Social Science analysis. Sidhani kama itafaa kuengiza vitu ambavyo ni qualitative then unvi"quantify". Naamini katika ushindi wa CDM lakini huu uchambuzi n feki
     
  14. Feedback

    Feedback JF-Expert Member

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    Hujui analysis inavyofanya kazi.
     
  15. C

    Concrete JF-Expert Member

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    @Soon nikipata ridhaa yao nitaweka majina ya hawa wachambuzi hapa, Kuhusu sample size nafikiri bado hujaelewa tofauti kati ya Scientific study vs Political analysis. This is political analysis.
     
  16. MNYISANZU

    MNYISANZU JF-Expert Member

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    Sina imani na source yako. Yaani huu ni utafiti uliofanywa na magamba na CDM halafu ukafanana hivyo?. Labda wewe umefanya generalization.
     
  17. Mwita Maranya

    Mwita Maranya JF-Expert Member

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    Feedback,
    Statistics haijawahi kunipa shida kiasi hicho. Pamoja na uzee mahesabu hapa ndio nyumbani kwake usiwe na shaka hata kidogo.
    Kwa kuangalia matokeo ya 2010 sidhani kama itakuwa ni sahihi ku neglect matokeo ya wagombea wengine. Ndio maana nikasema wagombea wengine sita hawawezi kupata 0%!
    Labda nikubaliane na mdau aliyesema kilichofanyika ni comparison kati ya wagombea wawili tu, wa chadema na wa ccm.
     
  18. Gracious

    Gracious JF-Expert Member

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    Ivi igunga CDM ilikua na mtaji kiasi gani?
     
  19. ruko dkerwa

    ruko dkerwa Member

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    huo mtaji wa wapiga KURA mbona unaipa CCM 100%
     
  20. Feedback

    Feedback JF-Expert Member

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    Hesabu(mathematics) na statistics ni vitu viwili tofauti.

    Kwenye bold kitendo cha kufanya comparison kwa vyama viwili tu kati ya vingi ndiyo negligence ninayoisema. Halafu nazidi kusema mimi nimejikita kwenye somo zaidi ya matokeo halisi.
     
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