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Tanzania Vs Uganda (Ukuaji wa UChumi na Bei za Shiling Tz na Shilling UG)

Discussion in 'Great Thinkers' started by Lambardi, Jun 6, 2012.

  1. Lambardi

    Lambardi JF-Expert Member

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    Nimekuwa nikifuatilia ukuaji wa uchumi wa daftari wa nchi zetu za Africa Mashariki hasa (Tanzania, Kenya na Uganda).

    Leo naomba wajuzi watusaidie kujua zaidi..

    Uchumi wa daftari wa Tanzania unakuwa kwa 7% kwa mwaka wakati Uganda 6.4% kwa mwaka..

    Kubadilisha Fedha Uganda miaka 3 hivi walikuwa .30 Tsh kwa 1 Ush. Sasa .80 Tsh kwa 1Ush.

    Naomba kujua zaidi kwa nini fedha yao inazidi kuwa nguvu zaidi yetu? Uwiano wa kukua kiuchumi na nguvu ya pesa.

    Source

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tz.html
    &
    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ug.html

    Nawakilisha
     
  2. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

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    That is a good question. Hata mimi nawasubiri wataalamu wetu wa uchumi waje wamwage darsa hapa.
     
  3. Saint Ivuga

    Saint Ivuga JF-Expert Member

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    na museven anataka kumuachia mke wake urais.meaning sisi hatuna viongozi nchi linaenda tu..you know what i mean?
     
  4. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Without other data, I think it's counter intuitive to use GDPs to compare the economies of two countries. Percentage of Annual growth is just a barometer which tells what you have done in previous years, and perhaps helps you to project current and future performances.


    Now with regard to the value of currencies, in theory they shouldn’t be used for comparison either. This is because the dynamics and monetary policies which influence the values of currencies in various countries aren’t applied evenly. For instances, if Uganda starts to export its oil, its currency might appreciate greatly against other currencies in East Africa without doing anything. If Tanzanians continue to trade and exchange services locally using US dollar, their currency will continue to drop because they increase the demand of dollar unnecessary.


    After said that, I admit that Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania share historical parallels. First, they used to share the same currency. Second the population consumes almost the same products. So intuitively the values of our modern currencies should indicate which country in the region is performing better.


    Disclamer: I am not an Economist.
     
  5. Yo Yo

    Yo Yo JF-Expert Member

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    this is a serious discussion......pls wachumi tupeni somo.....
     
  6. Kichuguu

    Kichuguu Platinum Member

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    Kwa maelezo rahisi na ya haraka haraka, ni vizuri ufahamu kuwa kukua kwa uchumi wa nchi hakuna uhusiano wowote wa moja kwa moja na uimara wa fedha ya nchi hiyo. Uimara wa fedha unatokana na sera za fedha (monetary policies) za nchi husika na nidhamu ya nchi hiyo katika kudhibiti mzunguko wa fedha. Uchumi wa nchi unaweza kuwa stagnant lakini fedha ya nchi ikaendelea kuwa imara, na vile vile uchumi wa nchi unaweza kuwa unakua lakini fedha yake ikawa siyo imara. Miaka ya nyuma sana kulikuwa na fedha inaitwa Italian Lira ambayo ilikuwa inayumba sana ingawa uchumi wa Italy ulikuwa imara na ukawa unakua.

    Kukua kwa uchumi kunatokana na kuongezeka kwa uzalishaji wa bidhaa na huduma (goods and services) katika nchi hiyo. Inawezekana kabisa Tanzania tuna ongezeko la goods and services lakini sera ya fedha yetu ni hovyo hovyo, au hatuna nidhamu ya kusimamia sera ya fedha yetu ikiwamo na kutotoza kodi sahihi, jambo linalosababisha serikali kukosa mapato stahili yake na hivyo kulazimika kuchapisha fedha nyingi zaidi ya inavyotakiwa.
     
  7. N

    NasDaz JF-Expert Member

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    Skills4Ever,
    Kama walivyotagulia kusema wachangiaji waliopita; hakuna uhusiano wa moja kwa moja kati ukuaji wa uchumi na exchange rate btn two currencies. Thamani ya pesa inakuwa determined na factors mbalimbali. Thamani kubwa ya fedha does not always reflects ukubwa wa uchumi wa nchi husika. Kuna baadhi ya nchi, wanaamua kwa makusudi ku-over value currency yao. Hii iliwahi kuwapo hapa tanzania enzi za utawala wa Mwalimu. Kiuchumi, hali hii inaitwa Overvaluation na kimsingi ni irrational decision making kwa nchi ku-over value fedha yake coz' ina-disappoint producers. The best practice to favor producures ni kuwa na currency yene thamani ndogo. Na ndio maana unakuta nchi kama China na Japan thamani ya fedha yao ni ndogo sana tena pengine kuliko shilingi ya Kenya! Overvaluation ni political decesion making ambayo inalenga kum-favor mlaji! HOW? Assume Tani moja ya mchele soko la dunia ni $ 1500 na kwamba, ili mfanya biashara apate faida anahitaji kuuza kilo moja ya mchele huo kwa $ 1.5 na say, exchange rate ni $1 for TZS 1000). At current exchange rate, Mtanzania atatakiwa kulipa about TZS 1500 ili kupata kilo moja ya mchele! So, nchi inaweza kuamua ku-over value TZS ili kum-favor mlaji na kuweka kiwango kwamba $1=TZS 700. Hapo maana yake ni kwamba, Mtanzania atatakiwa kulipa TZS 1050 !! Hapo, ume-favor mlaji. Sasa effect yake kiuchumi ni nini? Assume kilo moja ya korosho soko la dunia kwa producer ni $ 1.5. Kama currency isingekuwa overvalued, manake ni kwamba mkulima wa korosho angepata TSZ 1,500 kwa kila kilo lakini kwa kuwa ipo overvalued, atapata only TZS 1050. Na ndio maana unakuta Wachina na Wajapani thamani ya pesa yao ni ndogo coz' when they export, producers wao wana-earn alot of Yens and Yuans!
    Hiyo, ni general over view!

    Now let's be back kwa issue ya Tanzania na Uganda. Why Ugandan Shillings inaongezeka thamani relative to Tanzanian Shillings! Hapa tu-apply simple economic principle inatohusisha masuala ya Demand and Supply kama factor inayo-determine movement of price. Low Demand, Low Price. Ukipeleka product yako sokoni na watu wasiwe na time nayo, automatically bei yake itakuwa ya chini tu and the opposite hold true! So, kama price ya Ugandan Shillings inazidi kupanda relative to TZS, then inaelekea the Demand for Ugandan Shillings is increasing. Kwamba, Watz tunahitaji zaidi Ugandani shillings year to year. Ngoja tuangalie mambo ya kawaida kabisa ambayo hayahitaji sana kuumiza kichwa. Wananchi wa Kagera wanategemea wapi sana kununua bidhaa zao za kibiashara?! Tanzania/Dar es salaam/Mwanza/Arusha au Uganda/Kampala/Entebe?! Mimi, sifahamu lakini huenda Kagera's business community wanaweza kuwa na jibu. Lakini kwavile ni rahisi kwa mtu wa Bukoba kwenda Kampala kuliko kuja Dar es salaam, basi sitashangaa nikisikia kwamba wananunua zaidi kutoka Kampala kuliko Dar na kama ndivyo, hiyo lazima itaongeza demand ya Ugandan Shillings na hivyo kuongeza bei yake!! Mfano mwingine labda tuangalie suala la idadi ya wanafunzi wa Kitanzania wanaoenda kusoma Uganda na Waganda wanaokuja kusoma Tanzania. Generally speaking, Watanzania wanaoenda kusoma Uganda ni wengi maradufu kuliko Waganda wanaokuja kusoma TZ. Hawa wote, wanapoenda Uganda watahitaji kuwa na Ugandani Shillings na hivyo kuongeza demand yake.
     
  8. c

    chama JF-Expert Member

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    well said, just to add; we should look deep into corruption induced inflation; both countries face the same global downturn however our counter part perform slightly better than us; we were better off two decades ago; why Uganda economy pick up? other points we should consider how both countries do in terms of fiscal and monetary disciplines, in other words we will never be better because we transformed our economy to ombaomba model instead of production model.

    Chama
    Gongo la Mboto DSM
     
  9. nngu007

    nngu007 JF-Expert Member

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    Unasahau? wana OIL
     
  10. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Chama,

    The ombaomba model was invented in 1968. Today they have added ufisadi, but the underlying model is still ombaomba. Now concerning inflation, some economists believe that government spending greatly induces inflation.

    If this is true, the best way to reduce the inflation is to cut government spending. For example, if the government decided to reintroduce the austerity measures that were taken between 1995-2000, I believe the inflation would go back to single digit.
     
  11. c

    chama JF-Expert Member

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    Zakumi
    During those years we had vision whether the policy worked or did not work is another question but we tried very hard; these days we spends more than before; very interesting we budget our spending from other people pocket; how can you curb spending while you have big corrupted government, unnecessary ruzuku to vyama and army of don`t do nothing 300+ member of parliaments?

    Chama
    Gongo la Mboto DSM
     
  12. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Chama,

    The same scenario applied when we had our own vision. We budgeted our spending from other people pocket. I remember when Msuya was the finance minister, in his budget speechies to the parliament, first he used to enumerate and thank all international donors that had helped the country in previous years. On one hand it was a good gesture to do that. On the other hand, he set the motion for what we do today. We can survive as a nation without international handout.

    In international development communities, they believe that financial aid in poor countries such Tanzania spurs economic growth. However, the same aid begets irresponsible leaders.
     
  13. N

    NasDaz JF-Expert Member

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    Technically speaking, not SOME economists but rather MANY economists believe the same especially kama hakuna production. I believe the same as well.
    Pamoja na hayo, sizani kama government expenditure kwa hapa Tanzania ndiyo inaweza kuwa ndiyo source kubwa ya inflation. Kwanini nasema hivi....kwanza tuangalie mazingira yanasababisha Government expenditure ku-boost inflation. In short, matumizi makubwa ya seikali yanaongeza money supply kwenye circulation. Tunapozungumza money supply, ni zile fedha zilizomo kwenye mikono ya wananchi (currency in public hands) pamoja na zile zilizo kwenye form ya bank deposits (za wateja) ambazo they can withdrawal on demand!! Hiyo ndio money supply. So, kwavile matumizi makubwa ya serikali yanasababisha kuongeza money supply in the economy than products and/or services offered by the economy, then automatically patatokea mfumuko wa bei coz' public hold alot of money!

    Sasa ni mazingira gani ambayo yanaweza kusababisha government expenditure iendee mikononi mwa public? NI pale ambapo matumizi makubwa ya serikali yanafanyika domestically. Lakini ukiangalia hapa nchini, pamoja na kwamba serikali inafanya matumizi makubwa lakini bado pesa hazipo ndani ya uchumi wetu. Kwa mfano, unakuta serikali inatumia billions of dollars kununua magari....ambayo kimsingi yanatengenezwa Japan na sehemu kubwa ya pesa inayotumika kununua magari hayo inaenda kuzunguka kwenye uchumi wa Japan na sio hapa. Na hata kwenye mahitaji mengine ya serikali, bado unakuta matumizi mengi yanafanyika nje ya nchi. Na hii ndio sababu moja wapo inayotufanya tupige mark-time! Laiti matumizi makubwa haya ya serikali yangekuwa yana-circulate within our economy, hivi sasa tusingekuwa hapa!! Ni sehemu ndogo tu ya matumzi ya serikali ndiyo yanayoingia kwenye uchumi wetu na mengi yapo in the form of salary and wages.
     
  14. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    I think, even in small economy like ours, public spending induces inflation. To what extent, it’s debatable. Tanzanian government is the largest employer on the land, and it’s responsible for major projects that put money into people’s pockets.

    Tanzanians aren’t Japanese. The more you put money into their pockets, the more they will spend. Hence, they will distort the equilibrium of supply and demand and increase the price. Unfortunately, they spend on the products that aren’t produce locally. So indirectly they add another noise into the economy.

    Now concerning the current rate of inflation, I guess there are multiple factors, and therefore, multiple approaches should be taken into consideration. For example, the government should formulate public policies that address long term needs while the central bank should come up with monetary policies for short and immediate solutions.

    I don’t have financial expertise. So I will try to speculate what government should do. I believe that the government should address transportation infrastructure. For the higher price of oil has significantly increased the cost of transporting commodities and other basic items. Certainly we don’t set the price of oil; however, we can improve the transportation infrastructures, in particular railways, which could offset the transportation costs by moving goods in huge quantities.

    Increasing government spending in selected areas is one of the public policies that could keep inflation in check. It sounds counter intuitive to what I have said before. But we should remember that agriculture sector is very capital intensive and without well planned subsidies our farmers and peasants won’t reach the production level that will lower the price of their products.

    That’s what I have in mind today.

    Ta-da
    Z10
     
  15. c

    chama JF-Expert Member

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    NasDaz
    I do agree with your points; but one thing you should understands majority of Sub Sahara countries have high inflation rates because of corruption; almost everything is over priced because of corruption; how can you establish mechanism to check inflation while every one participates in corruption? Just take an example of Tanzania Port Authority how much it cost local traders who import goods to Tanzania; they always have to pay kickbacks to Port and TRA officials, whatever they pays adds up to cost of goods; also failure for our government to collect Taxes due to corruption fuel inflation rates.

    Chama
    Gongo la Mboto DSM
     
  16. c

    chama JF-Expert Member

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    Zakumi
    Do I need to remind you about our vision? Ujamaa na Kujitegemea was our vision; Can you tell me what is our policy now? Aim of Ujamaa na kujitegemea was to make sure we stands on our own right now we are like blind man walking alone in desert; the gvernment needs to set major economic policy other than that we will remain poor for years to come.

    Chama
    Gongo la Mboto DSM
     
  17. Zakumi

    Zakumi JF-Expert Member

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    Chama,
    Your vision reminds me of the dog race I saw on one of the Australian TV channels. Six greyhound dogs were racing for the prize. In the middle of the race, a crazy rabbit crossed the racing tracks. You could think that being well trained animal athletics; the dogs would have continued to run to the finishing line. Nope, instinctively the dogs started chasing the rabbit, and the show had to be postponed.


    Ujamaa na Kujitegemea existed only on paper. Being the scene, the country had insatiable appetite for foreign aid like the dogs I explained above. For example, between 1965 and 1985, Nyerere made 13 visits to China, mainly to seek aid. In 1985 before he retired, he made a world tour to visit all countries that helped Tanzania during his tenure. So if you want to talk about Ujamaa na kujitegemea or the so called your vision, let's talk about the culture of dependence of foreign aid.


    It true that we need to set economic and public policies that will transform the nation. However, we should also admit that what we experience today is a combine result of mediocre stewardship of previous administrations, in particular the first one. Nyerere was a good leader in terms of fighting for freedom of others; however, his economic policies weren't that stellar.


    Ta-Da
    Z10
     
  18. c

    chama JF-Expert Member

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    NasDaz
    Without vision nothing will come into practical even USA and China are on top today because their leaders set the vision; Ujamaa na Kujitegemea was put into practical ;when Mwl. Nyerere left the office the new leaders opted to change economic policy without setting the new one; at least the greyhounds opted to chase the rabbit instead of the ring; as country what are we chasing now? Mwl. Nyerere was not proud of dependence foreign aid many time he stood firm against foreign aid with attached strings.

    Chama
    Gongo la Mboto DSM
     
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