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Tanzania Shilling Depreciation Blame on Strong Dollar

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by HansMaja, Apr 15, 2011.

  1. HansMaja

    HansMaja Member

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    THE Bank of Tanzania (BoT) has said that the current depreciation of the shilling is a result of a strong US dollar at international level. However, the central bank says that it has no plans at the moment to intervene.....The BoT's Governor Prof Benno Ndulu said the shilling depreciation should not always be looked at with a 'bad eye" as it helps the country to export more.

    Here there is a problem - we have to understand our currency depreciation is directly propotional to Inflation....Maisha yatakuwa juu mpaka..
     
  2. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Bloodygadm*****t hivi hawa jamaa wanatuona mabwege nini tunajua globally the dollar is facing a crisis kwasababu ya US deficit, monetary policy ya marekani na weak us economic recovery. But the basket of other currency is not affected by the dollar. Mfano Singapore Dollar is gaining faster in Asia basket of currency. Brazilian currency is also gaining very fast. China has revised their currency value because of inflationary pressure. Tanzania tunasingizia dollar ndio chanzo cha kushuka kwa thamani ya shillingi.

    Labda tuulize Kenya shillings mbona inazidi kuwa stronger kila siku mpaka sasa inafika karibu 1 Ksh= 20 Tshs je hapa napo ni dollar? Uganda 1 shs = 0.6 Tshs je hapa napo ni dollar?
     
  3. Babu Lao

    Babu Lao JF-Expert Member

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    Sasa naona kuna haja ya kuangalia kama mtu anayetakiwa kuongoza ana uwezo na sio elimu tu.... ni wazi kwamba depreciation ya shilingi ndio inasababisha mfumuko wa bei, sasa huyu mpuuzi anakuja na upuuzi wake :disapointed:!!!!
     
  4. Mvaa Tai

    Mvaa Tai JF-Expert Member

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    Ili uwe Governor ni lazima uteuliwe na Rais na Rais ni mwanasiasa, hapo unategemea nini?
     
  5. Deshbhakt

    Deshbhakt Senior Member

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    Common sense would ask the more we 'gain' vide exports the MORE we equally pay for the imports..where is the logic?

    As pointed out by Mdondoaji, why do not we see any significant changes in the kenyan and uganda shillings?

    The burden of this deprication should not be neglected!!
     
  6. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Singapore dollar has gained by 0.7% against the dollar due to increase in country's export na sasa hivi their exchange rate is around 1.20 against 1$ . Similarly China has also raise their currency value to due increase in inflationary pressure which stands now at 5.4% . Vile vile tukiangalia basket of currency za East Africa toka mwaka jana hadi juzi 14/04/2011 tumeona Kenyan Shilling mfano shifted from 10 Tshs for 1 Kshs to 20 Tshs to 1Kshs. Uganda shilling strengthen its value. But our Tshs is depreciating and Bank of Tanzania is blaming the dollar inasikitisha???
     
  7. M

    Mtu Mmoja JF-Expert Member

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    huyu ni bonge la kilaza, sijui profesa gani huyu, to export more, Tanzania ina kitu gani cha ku-export?

    kumbe mtu akifanya kazi na mafisadi huwa anachanganyikiwwa kidogo?
     
  8. m

    magneto Member

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    ivi hatuwezi kuwa na mfumo mwingine wa kuwa na gavana?eg katika mchakato hu wa katiba mambo kama haya serious mwanasiasa kuteua gavana
     
  9. m

    magneto Member

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    nilimaanisha sheria isimpe haki mwanasiasa kuchagua gavan
     
  10. everybody

    everybody JF-Expert Member

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    Hili sio tatizo la Gavana na wala asilaumiwe kwa kueleza facts za economics. First it is true if you want to have strength in your currency you need to have enough valuable exports. BUT for Tanzania we mainly export raw materials which have low price and less competitive hence we cannot bid up the price so that we can get more dollar per unit of goods sold to foreign countries. The chines and Japanese or Singapore depends more on exports of finished goods which have high value and more competitive. Hence they can decide to increase the price of their exports in dollar terms or any other foreign currency and this is the main reason why Singapore currency is strong in dollar value. Other countries like China which also have more exports of finished goods may decide to devalue their currency so as to attract more foreign markets but for Tanzania we do not decide on devaluation of our currency but it is the economic situation. Therefore, lets work hard, produce more valuable goods (especially manufacturing and other finished goods and services) for exports if we want to improve the strength of our currency and we should not put politics in every thing.
     
  11. pmwasyoke

    pmwasyoke JF-Expert Member

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    Mimi sio mchumi - labda ndio maana simwelewi Gavana anaposhabikia inflation!
     
  12. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Kwahiyo unatuambia Uganda nayo wanatengeneza valuable goods? Kenya exports zao nyingi raw materials hasa agricultural goods je hizo ni valuable goods? Sisi tuna madini, ardhi, mafuta, gesi, utalii but our currency is depreciating. In my view nadhani shillingi inashuka thamani kwasababu inakosa mahitaji ya shillingi. Hilo linachangiwa na loosely policy kuruhusu dollar, pound zitumike in local transactions na kusababisha demand for our local currency to disappear. Vile vile ufisadi unaweza kuwa umechangia kwavile most of the pesa za kigeni zinapelekwa nje ya nchi na kupelekea mahitaji ya foreign currency kuwa makubwa. Mwisho kabisa kuporomoka kwa sarafu yetu kunachangiwa vile vile na upatikanaji mdogo wa foreign currencies. Hili linasababishwa na poor exports, lower tourism na mapato kiduchu katika sekta kama za madini. Haya yote yanachangia kwa namna moja au nyengine kushuka thamani ya sarafu ya Tanzania.
     
  13. everybody

    everybody JF-Expert Member

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    At last umekuja kwenye point niliyokuwa na insist. Export is the main drive in this. Kama Tanzania ina less exports don't expect tuwe na more foreign currency compared to Kenya. The Kenyan economy has a lot of exports of finished (manufactured) goods and cannot be compared to Tanzania.
     
  14. A

    Aldo Member

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    is the governor trying to say that,,USA federal bank will say," our currency is in a good position bcoz our value has grown high in comparison to the Tshs,.."

    this is bullcrap..,BOT z another piece of ***t that has failed to save this country from the ongoing massive economic deterioration,..instead of benefiting from the intellectuals installed in our monetary system,it is so annoying that they are the ones failing to be creative in tryn to save this country,..learn from developing countries like INDIA,,also learn from other African countries,,even Kenya surpasses us by far,.,.

    our banks under the ctrl of BOT are just mekin life harder for the citizens,businessmen,,to mention but a few...come on step up and challenge the ministry of finance,the parliament,,even our so called Mr. President,..show us wat u have in ur brains,..Prof. Benno,,being well recognized in the international enviroment doesnt mek u a hero in our country,,u and ur buddy who gave u that position,..
     
  15. M

    MPadmire JF-Expert Member

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    BOT waongo wakubwa....

    Pia kwanini huo Benno Ndulu hasemi export inaongezeka vipi? Wafanyabiashara wanaokwenda kuuza products za Tanzania nje wameongezeka? Hasemi je kiasi cha mazao yanayouzwa nje yameongezeka?

    Wafanya biashara wanauza raw materials au processed products?

    Je import imepungua?

    Mbona Sioni Mwanasiasa mchumi kama Prof Lipumba akimkosoa Benno Ndulu anapowapotosha watanzania mchana kweupe??

    CHADEMA haina wachumi wakakosoa hii kitu?? Kama haina Wachumi kwa nini wasiajiri?
     
  16. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Export may be the main drive to accumulate foreign currency reserves but it is not the driver of currency value. What drives the currency value is the demand for currency to be used as a medium of exchange. Shillingi ya tanzania inakosa demand of its usage kila siku kuanzia kodi ya nyumba mpaka kulipia baadhi ya transanctions nchini mwetu us dollar au pound au euro ndio zinatumika unadhani shillingi itakuwa na thamani tena? If Export is the main driver of currency value kwanini basi China, Japan currencies zao ziko chini? Unagundua kwamba wanajaribu kushusha demand of their currencies ili kusababisha exports zao ziwe cheap na viwanda vyao viendeleee kukua (currency manipulation). Tanzania needs to tighten their MOP na kuzuia utumiaji wa foreign currency in the country for local transactions. Pili kuzuia watu wanaosafirisha pesa nje ili kupunguza demand for foreign currencies in the country. Otherwise, it will be useless kusema to increase exports wakati viwanda vyenyewe hatuna, kilimo chetu hafifu, mauzo yetu hatuna bargaining power na hata hayo madini tunapata just 3% of the profit.
     
  17. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu hili linawezekana kabisa namshauri Waziri wa Fedha kivuli ambaye ni bwana Zitto aliraise katika bunge ili Benki Kuu iwe kama Bank of England ambapo waziri mkuu na Chancellor wake hawana ubavu wa kumuingilia kazi gavana wa BOE Professor Mervyn King. Yaani Bank of Tanzania iwe an independent entity inayojitegemea na Rais hawezi kuingilia utendaji wake badala yake Bunge na Kamati ya fedha ndio ziwe wasimamizi wakuu wa BOT hapo ndio tutakuwa accountability. Pia Chairman wa bodi ya Bank of Tanzania asiwe Governor awe mtu mwengine ili kuepusha a possible conflict of interest na kupunguza powers za gavana.
     
  18. B

    Bulesi JF-Expert Member

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    Nakubaliana na wewe kuwa kuna umuhimu wa kuangalia kama kweli mtu ana uwezo wa kuongoza benki yetu kuu na sio elimu tu; huyu gavana Ndullu anasema sie kuumia kwa thamani ya shillingi yetu kushuka sio jambo baya kwani linawanufaisha wale wanaopeleka vitu kuviuza nje ya nchi!! This guy is out of sync kwasababbu economy ya Tanzania ni dependent on imports na exports zetu ni kiduchu sana; hapo zamani tulikuwa tunatengeneza hata majembe lakini leo tunaagiza toka china kwahiyo inflation ya China inatuathiri sisi pia!! Ajabu ni kwamba shillingi ya Kenya inaimalika ,lakini ya Bongo ndio inazidi kudididmia, Ndullu kubali yaishe rudi Marekani ukakakae kwenye mali zako usitudanganye sisi walala hoi!!
     
  19. M

    Maimai Senior Member

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    :.: kaka kama hujui professor ndulu bonge la economist sema tu matatizo ya kiuchumi yanatokana na siasa mbovu.... Waziri wa fedha ndiye gavana,mchumi,mhasibu mkuu wa serikali, mwalikishi wa imf, mkaguzi mkuu wa serikali, mwakilishi wa worldbank. kwa taarifa ndulu kafanya kazi kama senior economist wa worldbank. Taasisi ambayo wewe ukipata kazi mpaka upate ujauzito. He is among of genious people in this country. Make central bank independent..period!!!
     
  20. Anfaal

    Anfaal JF-Expert Member

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    Mie binafsi naanza kwa kukubaliana na Prof Ndulu kuwa siyo depreciation zoote za currencies ni matatizo. Mfano mdogo ni China; Marekani na nchi nyingine za G8 wanajaribu kupiga kelele kwa China ila waiachie currency yao ifloat freely na wao waweze kuexist na ndio maana sasa hivi ni vitisho kati ya mataifa haya mawili. Ila depreciation ikiendelea saana inakuwa mbaya kama ilivyotokea Zimbambwe. Na haya ni miongoni mwa matunda ya kudai nyongeza ya mishahara bila kuongeza tija/uzalishaji. Watu wanapiga soga in the the end wanataka maslahi yaongezeke.
    Kwa nchi kama Tanzania yapo baadhi ya mambo ambayo tunaweza kuyafanya;
    1. Kustimulate domestic consumptions. Vile vinanvyopatikana Tanzania wananchi wahimizwe wavitumie hivyo na serikali ilinde wazalishaji wa nchi ili kupunguza matumizi ya pesa za kigeni. Mfano serikali ingewashawishi wananchi watumie zaidi gesi na kuepuka umeme ambao uzalishaji wake unatumia mafuta yanayotoka nje.
    2. Matumizi ya fedha za kigeni nayo yaangaliwe upya. Kuna baadhi ya hoteli na photocopy wanachaji kwa foreign currency hii ni hatari.
    3. Kwenye yale tunayoyaweza kama chakula; hapa tuhakikisha tuzalisha vya kutosha na tuepuke kabisa kuagiza ikiwezekana watu waagize kutoka kwetu.
    4. Tuandae miundo mbinu ya kuvutia uwekezaji mkubwa wa viwanda kama barabara, umeme nk.
    Pia kwa mdondoaji, kuhusu Ush kuwa kwenye 0.6 sasa hivi ni better kuliko miaka 2 iliyopita. Uganda hawafanyi vizuri na hawana haja ya kusifiwa sasa hivi.
    Pia Ndulu kuendelea kung'ang'ania mfano wa dola ni kukosa sababu za kutosha. Dollar ya Marekani imekuwa very steady for sometime now with reference to other major currencies kama Pound, Yen na Euro lakini ukilinganisha na Tsh ni hatari. Kuna haja ya kuangalia policies zao tena. Hebu wa tight kidogo spending ya serikali na rushwa tuone kama hali hii ya Tsh kukosa taste itaendelea. Pia kuna haja ya kuangalia trade off kati ya inflation na rates wanazooffer kwenye government securities.
     
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