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Population, maendeleo na rasilimali - Tanzania

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by Nzokanhyilu, Nov 5, 2008.

  1. Nzokanhyilu

    Nzokanhyilu JF-Expert Member

    #1
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    Naomba kuuliza swali;
    Ninajaribu kufuatilia mambo ya Tanzania. Nafuatilia kwa kuangalia vitu kama Population na resources. Sasa katika kusoma soma data, na kuplot, nimepata maswali machache.
    Data za Population nimepata website ya UN. Nimechukua data hizi, nimepiga mahesabu simple kwaajili ya Pop growth rate (nikatengeneza plot). Nime-attach plots.

    Kati ya 1975 na 1990 pop. growth rate ilishuka - Kwanini??
    Kati ya 1990 na 1995 growth rate ilipanda - kulitokea nini??
    Kati ya 1995 na 2000, growth rate ilishuka ghafla - Kwanini??
    Kati ya 2000 na 2005, ilipanda tena. Kwanini??

    Ubadilikaji wa growth rate unaweza kutokana na immigration (mfano vita Rwanda/Congo), emmigration (mfano vita kuisha Rwanda/Congo), au birth rate kupanda/kushuka (hivi vitu bado sijaangalia kwa Tanzania), magonjwa etc.

    Ningependa kujua haya mabadiliko yanatokana na nini? Njaa? Magonjwa? Vita? etc

    Formula ya Pop. growth (g) niliyotumia ni;

    g = (P(n+1)/P(n-1)) - 1/(T(n+1) - T(n))

    P (population), n = mwaka wa sensa (au predicted Pop), T = Time (mwaka)

    Ukifanya mahesabu haya haya kwa nchi kama Rwanda, utaona kwamba wakati wa vita vya 1994 na miaka kadhaa iliyofuata, Pop ilishuka, Pop growth rate ilishuka. Baada ya hapo, ikashoot (both Pop and gowth rate). Then Pop growth rate ime-stabilize baada ya 2000. Hii ikimaanisha Pop. growth rate yao inaendana na resources walizonazo (amongst other things). Unaanza kujiuliza, kwanini Rwanda wanataka sana kujiunga EAC? Is it a resources issue?
    Je, sisi tunafuatilia mambo haya? Pop. yetu inajitosheleza vipi na resources tulizo nazo? kama hatujitoshelezi, ndio sababu growth rate ishuke? Kwanini UN wapredict growth rate inayoshuka? Ina maana hatuna mpango wa kuendelea?
    Maswali haya ni socio-economical, siasa etc.
    Naombeni majibu.
     

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  2. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

    #2
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    you know COLIN is dump right

    not gonna read all that

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Nzokanhyilu

    Nzokanhyilu JF-Expert Member

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    COOL. A picture says a thousand words. So if you could click on the plots, naomba unieleze kwanini pop. growth rate ya Tanzania imekuwa ikishuka kama unajua. Shukran.
     
  4. G

    Game Theory JF-Expert Member

    #4
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    wewe unatafuta SHULE na mimi sipo kwenye mood ya kumwaga shule sijui itakuwaje. Nakumbuka niliandika something on population growth about two years ago na zaidi ilikuwa inaongelea Malthusian Thoery of population

    anyway nipe two mins kisha nitarudi nikupe more info

    sawa?

    BTW

    kuna tangazo nimeweka kwenye forum ya Tangazo hebu nisaidie kama unaweza
     
  5. Nzokanhyilu

    Nzokanhyilu JF-Expert Member

    #5
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    Yes, leta shule.
    GT, nimetafuta thread ya Malthusian Theory, sijapata zaidi ya hii;
    Farewell Alms. Lakini haijibu maswali, ingawa kuna vitu nimepick up kutoka kwa Yakubu na Mkandara.
    Halafu personally mimi sio mpenzi wa theories, napenda kufanya kazi na data. Theories za hawa wasomi kwenye mambo kama ya population wana-assume mtu huwezi hesabu, na wanatoka na information wakificha wamefikaje kwenye conclusions zao wakiamini wewe huwezi ukacheza na hizo data.

    Sasa vitu navyofikiria hapa ni ugumu wa maisha (nyerere's time), urahisi wa pesa (mwinyi's time), ugumu wa pesa (Mkapa's time)....kunaweza ku-affect familia zinapanga vipi maisha yao....haya ni mawazo ya haraka haraka (lakini inawezekana kuna mambo mengine sioni, mtu mwingine akaona). Kutokana na data, nataka niwork backwards.

    Tangazo lako siwezi kukusaidia, ila ukitengeza flyer naweza kusambaza.
     
  6. Pundit

    Pundit JF-Expert Member

    #6
    Nov 5, 2008
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    Nzoka,

    Sukrani sana kwa kufinyanga hizi data na charts.Nchi yetu ina ugonjwa wa "information starvation" na kupata data inaweza kuwa vigumu sana, na hata hizo zinazopatikana zinakuwa siyo reliable.Kwa hiyo nakushukuru sana kwa kuweka hapa data hizi zinazoweza kutoa mwanga kidogo.

    Kwa kuzingatia hili swala hapo juu, napenda kuuliza...

    How reliable is your data?
     
  7. Nzokanhyilu

    Nzokanhyilu JF-Expert Member

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    Data reliability is based on assumptions by the UN.
    Hii page inaelezea assumptions zao.

    ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE RESULTS OF THE
    2006 REVISION OF WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS


    Mimi nimechukua Pop. variant ya Medium. Foward projection ni ngumu even by UN standards. Kwa nchi za Ulaya ni rahisi kupata data.

    The only plot I have done, based on the data I have, ni hiyo ya 'growth rate'. Kwa Tanzania, naomba mtazamo wenu up to 2005. Nadhani kutoka 1970 hadi 2005 kuna reliability fulani. UN wako involved sana na nchi zetu, so wanajua matatizo yetu, nadhani pia tumefanya sensa kadhaa.

    USA pia huwa wana data nyingi sana za nchi zetu ambazo hata viongozi wetu hawajui. Nataka nitafute data za Energy consumption, resources zetu na nione kama naweza ku-relate na maendeleo yetu. Kwa developed countries ni rahisi sana kupata trends.

    United Republic of Tanzania
    Total population (2005): Estimated to be consistent with the 2002 census adjusted for underenumeration and with estimates of the subsequent trends in fertility, mortality and international migration.
    Total fertility: Based on maternity-history data from the 1991-1992, 1996 and 2004 United Republic of Tanzania DHS, and the 1999 Reproductive and Child Health Survey (RCHS).
    Infant and child mortality: Based on maternity-history data and on data on children ever born and surviving classified by age of mother from the 1991-1992, 1996 and 2004 United Republic of Tanzania DHS, and the 1999 RCHS. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality estimates (see chapter IV).
    Life expectancy at birth: Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality estimates (see chapter IV).
    International migration: Based on refugee statistics compiled by UNHCR.
     
  8. Nzokanhyilu

    Nzokanhyilu JF-Expert Member

    #8
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    Pundit,
    Kusaidia point, naongeza info ya Rwanda (Pop projectins ni za UN), na hiyo ya growth rate nimetengeneza mwenyewe. Ukiangalia utaona vita vya Rwanda vilisababisha Pop. decline, growth rate ika-decline. Baada ya vita, watu wali-rudi Rwanda, nadhani growth rate ilipanda sababu ya immigration....ukiangalia hizo blip ni sababu ya vita. Na growth rate wana-predict itabaki pale pale, hata kama Pop. inaongezeka.
    Je, Tanzania kunani?

    Nimeongeza graph nyingine ya Tanzania (data kutoka Census Bureau Home Page). Angalia emmigration ya Rwanda inavyofanana na immigration ya TZ and vice versa miaka ya around 1995.
     

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