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Ombi kwa Waheshimiwa Wabunge: Tanzania iwe na kikomo cha kukopa (Debt ceiling)

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Mdondoaji, Jul 19, 2011.

  1. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Tanzania's debt soars to $700b

    Saturday, 07 May 2011


    DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA - Tanzania's national debt - external and domestic debt - has soared to US$700 billion in 2009/10 from a low of $507 billion in 2008/09, equivalent to an increase of 30%.

    Controller and Auditor General (CAG) Ludovick Utouh said in his report that the national debt increase was detected after auditing the expenditures of the Central Government between 2009/10 that ended on June 30, 2010.

    "The increase of the national debt is a huge burden to low income Tanzanians because they are major taxpayers' despite being poor," he noted.
    He said in one year 2009/10, the national debt had increased by more than $187bn of which external debt had increased to more over $167b, equivalent to 44% of the total debt. Domestic debt increased to over $347million - equivalent to 23%.

    As a consequence the Government borrowed large amounts of foreign currency to cover Central Government expenditures.

    "This means that the Government is obligated to pay external debtors more than the domestic debtors.

    It also means large amounts of capital of foreign currency will be paid outside the country," he explained.

    The CAG report elaborated that the national economy had grown by 6.5 % from 2008/09 to 2009/2010.

    "This is a dangerous situation if it doesn't match with the real situation of the growth of the national economy," part of the report noted.

    Apart from that debt borrowed by the Government, the CAG's report also detected the existence of unexpected debt of about Tsh 26 b involving nine Ministries and three regions. CAG said that such debts are a burden to the Government. Ludovick, speaking to journalists at the Information Services auditorium assured the public that his National Auditing Office, in collaboration with private auditing companies, is ready to ensure that the public expenditure is effected as approved by the National Assembly


    Source: Business Week.

    My take:

    Kikomo cha kukopa ni kiwango cha juu na mwisho cha serikali kukopa bila ya ruhusa ya bunge. Deni la taifa la sasa linakadiriwa kuwa ni $700 Billion (CAG Report, 2010).

    Hii ina maana kila mmoja wetu anadaiwa kiasi cha $16,375.56 (700,000,000,000/42,746,620 (population until July 2011). Hii sawa na Tshs 26,135,399 kila mtanzania anadaiwa.

    Tunawaomba wabunge hili deni linahitaji kudhibitiwa na bunge tunaomba kikomo cha ukopaji wa serikali nje na ndani. Nitaelezea zaidi nikipata muda.
     
  2. Gagurito

    Gagurito JF-Expert Member

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    Hiki kikomo cha madeni ndicho kinaitesa serikali ya Obama mpaka sasa, Republicans wamemgomea, hawataki ongezeko la deni, na wanaishauri serikali kupunguza matumizi yake(to cut spendings), Nathani kunahaja za kujifunza toka kwa hao!
     
  3. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Ni afadhali iteseke na jinsi ya kulipa deni kuliko serikali ikikopa bila ya mpango na matokeo ni nchi kuelemewa na mzigo wa madeni na kuishia kufilisika kama Ugiriki, Ireland and Ureno.
     
  4. doup

    doup JF-Expert Member

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    dah! nilikuwa sijui kama ni mdaiwa sugu kiasi hicho
     
  5. p

    politiki JF-Expert Member

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    nakubalina nawe ktk hoja yako ya msingi lakini angalia hizi figure zako zinaweza zisiwe sahihi maana mara ya mwisho
    nilipoangalia deni lilikuwa billion $10 lakini nakubaliana nawe kwa maana serikali ni kama mlevi kwenye pombe watatumia
    kila bila kujali na kuangalia ubaya wa madeni kwa maana unapunguza uwekezaji na pia unatuongezea gharama ktk kukopa pesa.
     
  6. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu unaweza ukajiridhisha mwenyewe katika source hizi:-

    Kuhusu deni la nchi click hapa

    Tanzania's debt soars to $700b

    Population

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tz.html
     
  7. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Linalozungumziwa sana ni deni la nje ya nchi ambapo kwasasa limefikia $11 billion ila deni la ndani ya nchi ndio linalokuwa kwa kasi zaidi. Report ya mkaguzi wa hesabu inaonyesha deni la ndani limekuwa kwa 23% zaidi ya asilimia 90 ya ukuaji wote wa deni la nchi. Serikali inakopa kwa kasi kubwa sana ndani ya nchi na hilo linaweza kuwa janga siku za usoni.
     
  8. m

    mwanakazi Member

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    I remember hili suala la kuweka kikomo cha kukopa pamoja na kupunguza utegemezi wa budget kwa wahisani liliwahi kuulizwa bungeni ktk kikao kilichopita na Mh. Mbowe, na alitolea mfano wa Kenya walivyofanya na kufanikiwa ktk hilo! Lakini Mh. Wassira (actualy nimesita kumuita Mh.) akajibu "KITOTO" kuwa huwezi kuendelea bila kukopa na kwamba hata wewe (Mbowe) ni mfanyabiashara na mkopaji mzuri tu! Yakapigwa makofi pale kwa kugonga meza na jibu likawa limekamilika!

    ........so hili jambo limeshawahi kuulizwa bungeni na kujibiwa na serikali.....................labda wabunge walikomalie zaidi!
     
  9. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Inasononesha Mh Mbowe amejibiwa hivyo labda Wassira atuambie je maendeleo gani yanaweza kuja kwa kukopa zaidi ya kiwango cha uwezo wako wa kulipa? Statistics zinaonyesha Tanzania Debt to GDP ratio is 45% (IMF, 2010).

    Kenya debt to GDP ratio is 52%, Uganda 22.6%. GDP ni national income of our country (kwa ufupi ndio pato la nchi). Figures za Tanzania however ni excluding the $500 billion Eurobond serikali inakusudia kuuza katika soko la mitaji ya kimataifa. Zitakapouzwa Debt to GDP ratio will shoot to 70% kiwango cha juu. Pia na kasi ya ukuaji wa deni la ndani (23% annually) hatutakuwa mbali kuwa declared insolvent.

    Kenya wamelitambua hilo wameweka kiwango cha juu cha serikali kukopa bila ya kibali cha bunge. Sisi siasa zitatupeleka pabaya na nchi itakapofilisika IMF na World Bank ndio watakapokuja na kujichotea rasilimali zetu kwa bei ya kutupa. Pia serikali itaambiwa ianze kubana matumizi kwa kukata mishahara ya wafanyakazi na kuongeza kodi. Kwa ufupi watanzania ndio watakamuliwa zaidi na maendeleo yatakuwa hayapo.
     
  10. p

    politiki JF-Expert Member

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    mjomba according to BOT GDP YA TZ ni bil 22 us dollars na kama tunadaiwa billioni us dollars 700 hayo mahesabu ya DEBT to GDP ratio
    45% yanatoka wapi naomba ufafanuzi wako?
     
  11. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Ndugu,

    Debt to GDP ratio ni madeni yote serikali inayodaiwa nje ya nchi kutoka kwenye sekta mbali mbali za kimataifa. They do not include madeni ya ndani ya nchi na yale yanayolipwa in a local currency. Deni la taifa hadi May 2011 linakisiwa kuwa $11 billion. Deni la mwaka jana lilikuwa ni $10.4 billion. Hivyo 45% of GDP ratio is correct but excluding debts denominated in Tshs na madeni ya ndani ya nchi serikali inakopa katika mabenki na pension ndani ya nchi.

    Yakijumuishwa na madeni hayo serikali itakuwa imefilisika tayari kwani $700 bn gawanya kwa $23 billion of GDP utapata debt to GDP ratio 3,000% in short serikali iko hali mbaya.
     
  12. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Government Debt au Deni la Serikali ni jambo la kawaida kwa nchi yeyote duniani.

    Nchi kukopa ni sehemu ya maendeleo kwani mahitaji yake yanatokana na ukosekanaji wa fedha kwa wakati husika. Pia mkopo husaidia kukuza thamani ya nchi kutokana miradi mbali inayoanzishwa na mikopo hiyo (Keynes, 1936). Mtazamo huu wa kitaaluma unakisiwa kuwa ulichangia kwa kiwango kikubwa kutokea kwa Great Depression baada ya vita kuu ya pili ya Dunia in 1939-1946. Serikali nyingi za ulimwengu wa kwanza zilikopa kwa ajili ya kulipia vita kuu ya dunia (Nitzan, J & Bichler, S, 2006). Hata hivyo Keynesian theory bado inakubalika kama msingi mzuri wa maendeleo ya nchi.

    Hata hivyo Modigiliani (1961), Buchanan (1958) na Meade (1958) wamepinga mtazamo huo kwani wamesema na nanukuu " National Debt is a burden for the next generation". Hii inasababishwa na deni linalotokana na ulipaji mkubwa na riba kutoka katika mikopo husika, ufinyu wa upatikanaji wa mikopo katika masoko ya mitaji kwasababu benki nyingi zinatoa kipaumbele kwa serikali kuliko watu binafsi kwasababu ya kuhofia risk. Vilevile burden to the next generation inatokea ikiwa mkopo huwa kwa kiwango kikubwa sana na kusababisha serikali kushindwa kulipa na kupelekea kudorota kwa shughuli za maendeleo (mfano hai Greece).

    Kwa maelezo haya utagundua kwamba ijapokuwa serikali kukopa kunachangia maendeleo lakini kunategemea na zaidi wapi inakopa na kwa kiwango gani. Wingi wa kukopa kunaweza kuchangia serikali ikashindwa kulipa deni na kupelekea kuzorota kwa shughuli za maendeleo nchini (Krugman, 1988). Pia kukopa katika idara za ndani kama benki na mifuko ya hifadhi ya jamii huweza kuchangia kuzorota kwa maendeleo kutokana na kuongezeka kwa kiwango cha riba, ufinyu wa upatikanaji wa fedha nchini (Reihart and Rogoff, 2010). Hivyo basi sio kweli kwamba kukopa huchochea maendeleo pekee bali uhusiano wa mkopo na maendeleo ya nchi huwa na pande mbili (kuchochea maendeleo na kuzorota kwa maendeleo pia (a non-linear relationship)).

    Uthibitisho wa haya ni kama ifuatavyo:- Utafiti wa nchi 93 zilizoendelea unaonyesha kuwa nchi zote zilizokopa kutoka mwaka 1969-1998 zilionekana GDP yake kuporomoka. Hizo nchi zilikuwa na ratio ya debt to GDP growth of 35%-40%. Reihart and Rogoff (2010) wakiwa na ukubwa wa nchi 20 kutoka mwaka 1790 - 1990 waligundua kuwa mahusiano ya kukopa na ukuaji wa uchumi na maendeleo hupotea au kupungua kiwango cha debt to GDP ratio ikivuka zaidi ya asilimia 90. Utafiti mwengine unaoshabihiana na huu pia ulikutana na matokeo hayo hayo kwamba kiwango cha ukuaji deni kikivuka zaidi ya asilimia 90 uchumi huporomoka (Kumar and Woo, 2010). Checherita and Rother (2011) waligundua kuwa katika nchi 12 za ulaya kwa muda wa miaka 40 nchi zilizokuwa zimekopa kati ya 90%-100% ziliporomoka kimaendeleo kuliko zilizokopa chini ya hapo. Walimalizia kwa kusema kuwa vichocheo vya maendeleo ya nchi sio kukopa peke yake bali government saving, uwekezaji kwenye miradi ya maendeleo (na usimamizi mzuri wa pesa za serikali), ongezeko la uzalishaji na pia usimamizi mzuri wa riba inayotolewa kwa wakopaji.

    Kutokana na taarifa hiyo utagundua kwamba kukopa peke yake hakusaidi nchi kuwa na maendeleo. Deni linapozidi zaidi ya asilimia 90 linachangia kuongezeka kwa riba ya ulipaji na kupelekea kukua kwa deni husika. Pia kukiwepo na deficit kwenye serikali matokeo ni serikali kufilisika na kuzorota kwa miradi ya maendeleo kutokana na kukosekana kwa fedha za kulipia miradi husika. Hivyo basi ni muhimu kwa serikali iwe na kikomo cha kukopa kuepuka hali kama hiyo kwani effect za serikali kufilisika ni kama kupunguzwa kwa wafanyakazi (forced redundancies), kupunguzwa kwa mishahara ya wafanyakazi, serikali kuanza kuuza rasilimali zake, kuanguka kwa sarafu ya nchi na kadhalika. Tutafakari!!!!
     
  13. Nyambala

    Nyambala JF-Expert Member

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    Nimekaa najiuliza jinsi BHO alivyobanwa kuhusu ku-raise a debt ceiling. Congress ambayo ni majority republicans wanaonekana hawako tayari kupitisha chochote chenye harufu ya not only tax increases bali hata kuziba zile loopholes za kukwepa kodi kihalali. Senate majority dems nao hawako tayari kupitisha mpango ambao utaondoa/ utapunguza benefits entitlements kwa wazee, wasiojiweza na wasio na ajira. Kifupi it's a deadlock!! Na namna pekee viable kwa sasa ni compromise kabla ya hiyo deadline - Aug 02.

    My Take:

    1. Turudi bongo je sisi kwenye haya mambo ya kukopa kuna any set limit ambayo ikifikiwa hatuwezi kukopa tena au kama ni lazima basi JK inabidi aende dodoma kuomba wabunge wauplift hiyo cap ya mkopo????????? Au ndiyo yale yale mambo ya kifalme kwamba tunategemea busara za raisi as such JK ana limitless credit card?

    2. Kama hatuna debt ceiling hatuoni kwamba ni muda muafaka ku-implement hii kitu maana hatujui huko mbeleni tunaweza kuja pata prezidaa wa style ya mobutu? Well ni vizuri kuiga mambo mazuri.

    3. Mpaka sasa deni la taifa ni kiasi gani na ni% ngapi ya GDP?
     
  14. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Jibu lake hakuna kuna thread moja nilianzisha imezungumzia haya na deni la taifa nawaomba MOD waunganishe na hii.
     
  15. nngu007

    nngu007 JF-Expert Member

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    ONLY America They do have Dept Ceiling... This happened during first world War and it was just to make lawmakers aware of what they have increased on expenditure on Arms... It was not an Issue at all

    During President Bush they did increased the Ceiling 9 times...
    It become an Issue because of Obama and the new Congress whom the Republican Majority are Tea Party whom don't prefer Federal GVT and FEDERAL TAXES...

    SO TZ like any other country we don't need Dept CEILING!!!!
     
  16. SHERRIF ARPAIO

    SHERRIF ARPAIO JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu, you gotta be kiddin' me!!
    Budget yenyewe ni ya kuungaunga na gundi, 40% wanachangia donor countries halafu unaongelea Tanzania kuwa na debt ceiling
     
  17. Nyambala

    Nyambala JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuiu hata kwenye normal household budget regardless wewe ni masikini kiasi gani unajiwekea ka-debt ceiling hata kama hakajaandikwa mahali. The limit on your credit card is the debt ceiling!!!
     
  18. Bongolander

    Bongolander JF-Expert Member

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    The question is how do you spend the money you borrow. Do you spend it kwa safari za mkuu nje na na wapambe wake? au kwa investements ambazo baadaye zitalipa. And why do you borrow?

    Au inakuja kwa sababu tunataa kuiga wamarekani.
     
  19. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Nngu007,

    I am sorry mkuu ila tunahitaji debt ceiling kwasababu zifuatazo:
    a. Kwanza ile misamaha ya madeni tulioipata miaka 2000-2004 kutoka Japan, USA, France, Ujerumani , Uingereza na nchi nyenginezo haupo tena hivyo basi tunachokikopa sasa hivi tunatabidi tukirudishe kwasababu serikali nyingi za magharibi zimeishiwa hela na kusamehe madeni itakuwa ngumu sana si umeona Greece wanavyovutana na wamekataa katakata kufuta deni badala yake wamepunguza interest rate ya deni ili kushusha kasi ya ukuaji wa deni ila sio kulifuta kabisa.

    b. Mikopo tunayochukua kwa wingi ni ya ndani ya nchi na si nje kama taarifa ya mkaguzi mkuu wa hesabu inavyoonyesha asilimia 90 ya ukuaji wa deni la nchi umetokea ndani ya nchi. Hivi karibuni ulisikia mtikisiko wa PSPF ikitaka kulipwa deni lake serikalini la Trilioni kadhaa hatujasikia limeishia wapi, NSSF pia wamekopa, Mabenki ya biashara. Serikali ikishindwa kulipa hayo madeni unajua ni akina nani watakaoumia ni sisi wachangiaji katika pension funds, tulioweka vijisenti vyetu benki (wenzetu viongozi wameweka pesa zao nje ya nchi kama New York, Isles of Man and Switzerland). Hivyo basi kuna hatari ya kupoteza pesa zetu katika mabenki, michango yetu ya kustaafu bila ya kusahau ajira za watu wahusika.

    c. Serikali inapokopa ni kama mtu wa kawaida anamiliki Credit Card it is infectious. Deni linapozidi kuwa kubwa ndivyo malipo yanapozidi kuongezeka kufikia kiwango hakilipiki. Chukulia mfano mtu anayefahamika mtaani ni mtu wa mikopo akikopa sana mwishoe huishia kuitwa mtaani mzee wa mikopo au kwamaana nyengine hakopesheki. Inapotokea hivyo tuombe mungu serikali isije kuwa imeshauza rasilimali zote kulipa madeni kwani ndio zitatuokoa katika janga hilo ama sivyo nchi itakuwa ishauzwa.
     
  20. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Nadhani kuna mantiki ya hoja yangu sasa kwani Tunajionea debt balooning from 10 Trillion to 14 Trillion. Wabunge amkeni tutakabana huko mbele na hili deni waheshimiwa.
     
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