Obama likely to be re-elected in 2012 elections.

Ab-Titchaz

Ab-Titchaz

JF-Expert Member
Jan 30, 2008
14,631
4,225
What's the likelihood that Democrats could control Washington in 2012?

rothscdm_000836.gif


By David Rothschild | The Signal – 4 hrs ago

As of December 31, 2011 the likelihood of the Democrats retaining the Presidency is 53.7 percent, retaining the Senate is 20.7 percent, and taking the House is 32.7 percent. This is compiled from Betfair, Intrade, and Iowa Electronic Market prediction market data.

The chart shows how these three main predictions have shifted during the course of the year. Obama had a small spike when Osama Bin Laden was captured, but otherwise he's been on a slow decline for most of the summer and early fall, with a slow resurgence in the late fall and early winter. The Senate has been relatively steady with small spikes corresponding to shifts in specific seats, including retirements and announcements of new candidates. The House has shown the most flux with a steep decline that mirrored the President's, but continued longer into the fall. Yet, it has taken a sharp turn towards the Democrats in recent weeks:



Likelihood-of-Democratic-Victory-in-President-Senate-and-House_Dec-31.png


​


Sources: Betfair, Intrade, and Iowa Electronic Market

Obama has been polling well against both the generic Republican and the specific Republicans (with Mitt Romney being the most likely opponent, followed by Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum). The Real Clear Politics aggregated polling trend has him up 1.6 percentage points on Romney and down 0.5 percentage points on the "generic Republican." Other data, including approval numbers and economic indicators, have been moving in his direction, but are still far from ensuring his reelection. Key indicators, however, are still a few months away-they will come at the end of the first and second quarter of the election year.

What does that 53.7 percent mean for Obama? Not to much at this moment. With the election 10 months away, markets are going to be conservative. Still, markets are predicting that numbers will continue to move in his favor.

As for holding on to the Senate, it is not looking good for the Democrats. The Democrats control 23 of 33 seats up for election and are facing slew of retirements, including Ben Nelson from Nebraska this week.

In the House, things have been looking up for the Democrats lately, yet the Republicans are still likely to retain control. The census-induced redistricting of House seats likely helps the Republicans in the House. Yet, the recent Democratic creep forward is likely a result of record low Congressional approval numbers. It also coincides Republican squabbling over the payroll tax issue, which stemmed from lack of cohesion in the Republican-controlled House. The Wall Street Journal's editorial board called this a fiasco that could help Obama get reelected, but the reverberations for this type of event may be felt in House elections as well.

It has been a pleasure sharing our data driven view of the world with you in 2011 and we look forward to much more in-depth data driven commentary in 2012! Happy New Year!

Follow along on PredictWise for the real-time likelihood of the Presidency and the Senate and House.

David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. His dissertation is in creating aggregated forecasts from individual-level information. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

What
 
This time around you have disappointed me Tichaz for not reading well the signs :shock:eek:f the time. Obama is a one-term president. Not many will be missing him. He lied to people big time and failed to revive the economy. He had all the support of the American people as well as the world when assumed power but decided to squander the goodwill of the people and to follow the elites and his supremacists handlers.
He will never be re-elected.
Understand that the writer of the article is a Jewish (probably a Zionist). These guys will want to see Ron Paul drop dead today. Also I suspect the article is old, for, the latest is that Ron Paul is leading the polls in Iowa. But even if the article is old, Ron Paul has never been in the position the author has put him. You can clearly see this is a wishful thinking and an attempt at downplaying Ron Paul's popularity.
Zionist Jews will not like Ron Paul's victory because he does not think US foreign policy should be dictated by Israel. Also, he hits them at their financial nerve system by wanting to abolish the Federal Reserve, which is owned by Jewish families who are taxing the American government for printing its own money! Where have you seen that in the world?
:lol:
 
No doubt bado tuna miaka minne na ushee hivi wa kuona picha za Michelle hapa :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
 
The only guy ambaye yuko electable kwenye hiyo GOP field ni flip flopper Mitten, lakini hebu anagalia analysis ya ma-conservative wenzie hapa chini.

7 Reasons Why Mitt Romney's Electability Is A Myth
Mitt Romney was a moderate governor in Massachusetts with an unimpressive record of governance. He left office with an approval rating in the thirties and his signature achievement, Romneycare, was a Hurricane Katrina style disaster for the state. Since that's the case, it's fair to ask what a Republican who's not conservative and can't even carry his own state brings to the table for GOP primary voters. The answer is always the same: Mitt Romney is supposed to be "the most electable" candidate. This is a baffling argument because many people just seem to assume it's true, despite the plethora of evidence to the contrary.

1) People just don't like Mitt: The entire GOP primary process so far has consisted of Republican voters desperately trying to find an alternative to Mitt Romney. Doesn't it say something that GOP primary voters have, at one time or another, preferred Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and now even Ron Paul (In Iowa) to Mitt Romney?

To some people, this is a plus. They think that if conservatives don't like Mitt Romney, that means moderates will like him. This misunderstands how the process of attracting independent voters works in a presidential race. While it's true the swayable moderates don't want to support a candidate they view as an extremist, they also don't just automatically gravitate towards the most "moderate" candidate. To the contrary, independent voters tend to be moved by the excitement of the candidate's base (See John McCain vs. Barack Obama for an example of how this works). This is how a very conservative candidate like Ronald Reagan could win landslide victories. He avoided being labeled an extremist as Goldwater was; yet his supporters were incredibly enthusiastic and moderates responded to it.

Let's be perfectly honest: Mitt Romney excites no one except for Mormons, political consultants, andJennifer Rubin. To everybody else on the right, Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama would be a "lesser of two evils" election where we'd grudgingly back Mitt because we wouldn’t lose as badly with him in the White House as we would with Obama. That's not the sort of thing that gets people fired up to make phone calls, canvass neighborhoods, or even put up "I heart Mitt" signs in their yards.

2) He's a proven political loser: There's a reason Mitt Romney has been able to say that he's "not a career politician." It's because he's not very good at politics. He lost to Ted Kennedy in 1994. Although he did win the governorship of Massachusetts in 2002, he did it without cracking 50% of the vote. Worse yet, he left office as the 48th most popular governor in America and would have lost if he had run again in 2006. Then, to top that off, he failed to capture the GOP nomination in 2008. This time around, despite having almost every advantage over what many people consider to be a weak field of candidates, Romney is still desperately struggling. Choosing Romney as the GOP nominee after running up that sort of track record would be like promoting a first baseman hitting .225 in AAA to the majors.

3) Running weak in the southern states: Barack Obama won North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida in 2008 and you can be sure that he will be targeting all three of those states again. This is a problem for Romney because he would be much less likely than either Gingrich or Perry to carry any of those states. Moderate northern Republicans have consistently performed poorly in the south and Romney won't be any exception. That was certainly the case in 2008 when both McCain and Huckabee dominated Romney in primaries across the south. Mitt didn't win a single primary in a southern state and although he finished second in Florida, he wasn't even competitive in North Carolina or Virginia. Since losing any one of those states could be enough to hand the election to Obama in a close race, Mitt's weakness there is no small matter.

4) His advantages disappear in a general election: It's actually amazing that Mitt Romney isn't lapping the whole field by 50 points because he has every advantage. Mitt has been running for President longer than the other contenders. He has more money and a better organization than the other candidates. The party establishment and inside the beltway media are firmly in his corner. That's why the other nominees have been absolutely savaged while Romney, like John McCain before him, has been allowed to skate through the primaries without receiving serious scrutiny.

Yet, every one of those advantages disappears if he becomes the nominee. Suddenly Obama will be the more experienced candidate in the race for the presidency. He will also have more money and a better organization than Mitt. Moreover, in a general election, the establishment and beltway media will be aligned against Romney, not for him. Suddenly, Romney will go from getting a free pass to being public enemy #1 for the entire mainstream media.

If you took all those advantages away from Romney in the GOP primary, he'd be fighting with Jon Huntsman to stay out of last place. So, what happens when he's the nominee and suddenly, all the pillars that have barely kept him propped up in SECOND place so far are suddenly removed? It may not be pretty.

5) Bain Capital: Mitt Romney became rich working for Bain Capital. This has been a plus for Romney in the Republican primaries where the grassroots tend to be dominated by people who love capitalism and the free market. However, in a year when Obama will be running a populist campaign and Occupy Wall Street is demonizing the "1%," Mitt Romney will be a TAILOR MADE villain for them. Did you know that Bain Capital gutted companies and made a lot of money, in part, by laying off a lot of poor and middle class Americans? Do you know that Bain Capital got a federal bailout and Mitt Romney made lots of money off of it?

“The way the company was rescued was with a federal bailout of $10 million,” the ad says. “The rest of us had to absorb the loss … Romney? He and others made $4 million in this deal. … Mitt Romney: Maybe he’s just against government when it helps working men and women.”The facts of the Bain & Co. turnaround are a little more complicated, but a Boston Globe report from 1994 confirms that Bain saw several million dollars in loans forgiven by the FDIC, which had taken over Bain’s failed creditor, the Bank of New England.

​
Did you know Ted Kennedy beat Romney in 1994 by hammering Mitt relentlessly on his time at Bain Capital? No wonder. The ads write themselves.

Imagine pictures of dilapidated, long since closed factories. They trot out scruffy looking workers talking about how bad life has been since Mitt Romney crushed their dreams and cost them their jobs. Then they show a clip of Mitt making his $10,000 bet and posing with money in his clothes. All Mitt needs is a monocle and a sniveling Waylon Smithers type character to follow him around shining his shoes to make him into the prototypical bad guy the Democrats are trying to create.

Now, the point of this isn't to say that what Mitt did at Bain Capital was dishonorable. It certainly wasn't. To the contrary, as a conservative, I find his work in the private sector to be just about the only thing he has going for him. But, people should realize that in a general election, Mitt's time at Bain Capital will probably end up being somewhere between a small asset and a large liability, depending on which side does a better job of defining it.

6) The Mormon Factor: This is a sensitive topic; so I am going to handle it much, much more gently than Hollywood and the mainstream media will if Mitt gets the nomination. Mormons do believe in Jesus Christ, the Mormon Church does a lot of good work, the ones I've met seem to be good people, and two of my best friends are Mormons. That being said, Mormons are not considered to be a mainstream Christian religion in large swathes of the country. There will be Protestants who will have deep reservations about voting a Mormon into the White House because they'll be afraid it will help promote what they believe to be a false religion. There have also been a number of polls that show that significant numbers of Americans won't vote for a Mormon as President.

Just look at a couple of the more recent polls and consider how much of an impact this issue could have in a close election.

The poll found 67 percent of Americans want the president to be Christian and 52 percent said they consider Mormons to be Christian. Twenty-two percent of those polled said they don't think Mormons are Christians and 26 percent are unsure."I do believe they are moral people, but again there is a difference between being moral and being saved," Linda Dameron, an evangelical Republican in Independence, Mo., told the Tribune.

​
More than 40 percent of Americans would be uncomfortable with a Mormon as president, according to a new survey that also suggests that as more white evangelical voters have learned White House hopeful Mitt Romney is Mormon, the less they like him.A survey by the Public Religion Research Institute released late Monday also shows that nearly half of white evangelical Protestant voters — a key demographic in the Republican primary race — don’t believe that Mormonism is a Christian faith, and about two-thirds of adults say the LDS faith is somewhat or very different than their own.

​
You should also keep in mind that if Mitt Romney gets the nomination, Hollywood and the mainstream media will conduct a vicious, months’ long hate campaign against the Mormon Church. They will take every opportunity to make Mormons look weird, racist, kooky, scary, and different. Would this be a decisive factor? I'd like to say no, but by the time all is said and done, it's very easy to see Romney potentially losing hundreds of thousands of votes across the country because of his religion.

7) He's a flip-flopper. Maybe my memory is failing me, but didn’t George Bush beat John Kerry's brains in with the "flip flopper" charge back in 2004? So now, just eight years later, the GOP is going to run someone that even our own side agrees is a flip-flopper right out of the gate? Romney doesn't even handle the charge well. When Brett Baier at Fox pointed out the obvious, Romney's response was to get huffy and deny that he was flip flopping, which is kind of like Lady Gaga denying that she likes to get attention. If Mitt can't even handle run-of-the-mill questions from FOX NEWS about his flip flopping, what makes anyone think he can deal with the rest of the press in a general election?

There are a lot of issues with trying to run a candidate who doesn't seem to have any core principles. It makes it impossible for his supporters to get excited about him because you can't fall in love with a weathervane. Even worse, since politicians tend to be such liars anyway and you know Romney has no firm beliefs, it's very easy for everyone to assume the worst. Democrats will feel that Romney will be a right wing death-beast. Republicans will think that Romney will screw them over. Independents won't know what to believe, which will make the hundreds of millions that Obama will spend on attack ads particularly effective.

Ronald Reagan famously said the GOP needed "a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors." That's particularly relevant when it comes to Mitt Romney who has proven to be a pasty grey pile of formless mush.



​
 
Sijali said:
This time around you have disappointed me Tichaz for not reading well the signs :shock:eek:f the time. Obama is a one-term president. Not many will be missing him. He lied to people big time and failed to revive the economy. He had all the support of the American people as well as the world when assumed power but decided to squander the goodwill of the people and to follow the elites and his supremacists handlers.
He will never be re-elected.
Understand that the writer of the article is a Jewish (probably a Zionist). These guys will want to see Ron Paul drop dead today. Also I suspect the article is old, for, the latest is that Ron Paul is leading the polls in Iowa. But even if the article is old, Ron Paul has never been in the position the author has put him. You can clearly see this is a wishful thinking and an attempt at downplaying Ron Paul's popularity.
Zionist Jews will not like Ron Paul's victory because he does not think US foreign policy should be dictated by Israel. Also, he hits them at their financial nerve system by wanting to abolish the Federal Reserve, which is owned by Jewish families who are taxing the American government for printing its own money! Where have you seen that in the world?
:lol:
Click to expand...


Sijali,

Hata sijui nikujibu vipi aisee.

....Kwanza kabisa Im wondering how I disapppoint you yet I have not voiced my opinion on the above article. I simply
put it out there for folks to debate.

.....Pili sijui kama ni uvivu wetu kusoma au vipi tena? Article inaanza kwa kusema as of Dec 31st...sasa where are you
getting the "understanding" that its an old article?

.....kisha unazidi kusema Obama will not be re-elected. That is a very damning statement that you need to substantiate with
some semblance of proof. Otherwise ni kelele za kijiweni tu!

......then you are all over the place talking about Ron Paul and Zionism, something that has no bearing to the article whatsover.

Happy New Year by the way.
 
BAK said:
....With almost 70% of latino support, Bama will be re-elected for another term in WH. Few months ago I thought this was impossible. YES WE CAN.
Click to expand...

Hiyo namba ya 70% sidhani kama ni ya kuaminika. Ukiangalia sehemu ambazo Latino ni wengi kama California, kuna chuki sana kati ya weusi na Latino. Tena zile jela za kubwa za California yaani ni vita kabisa kati ya Latino na Weusi. Yaani weusi na Latino hawaruhusiwi kukaa pamoja. Halafu huko ma uswazi wanapokaa ndiyo usiseme kabisa. Ma gangs ya Latino na weusi wanachinjana kama kuku. Halafu subiri hiyo 2050 ambayo Latino wanatarajiwa kuwa wengi Marekani nzima. Weusi watanyanyaswa sana na Latino.
 
In case I have missed out on Obamamite goodies: those who support Obama, could you kindly please tell us two things that the Americans and the world have enjoyed and appreciated, thanks to Obama?
 
Uchaguzi wa USA siku zote hautabiriki yeyote anayejifanya ni mjuzi huadhirika siku ya matokeo.
 
Sijali said:
In case I have missed out on Obamamite goodies: those who support Obama, could you kindly please tell us two things that the Americans and the world have enjoyed and appreciated, thanks to Obama?
Click to expand...
Bin Laden hayupo and hence a better and safer world.

Kwenye uchumi kuna improvements na pia situationa could've been worst kama si policies zake kama stimulus package, cash fo clunkers, bailouts and all that.

Sidhani kama unafuatilia hizi issue, inawezekana unasukumwa na hisia zaidi na propaganda za right wings na tea party poopers lol

Saa hizi kuna 99%, sijui kuhusu tea partiers kama na wao ni pasenti ngapi ya wananchi and if they can handle the massive changes about to come, hao occupy wallstreet wanataka same changes ambazo Obama aliahidi kabla ya kuingia madarakani.

Matajiri na corporations ni lazima watambue kuwa hawakuuokoteza huo utajiri barabarani, they got it kwa msaada mkubwa sana wa hao 99 percenters.

Wakishakubali tu kuwa its time for them to pay their fair share, basi mambo itakuwa sawa tu, kwa ttarifa yako matajiri waligoma kuwekeza kwenye utawala wake wa first term, they have been sitting on the cash, nadhani wakihope kuwa chuki dhidi ya jamaa itazidi kwa wancnhi na hivyo ataondolewa na kuwa only a one term president, lakini mwanamme kasavaiv!

Wameviziana sana kwa hii term ya kwanza, sasa naona Obama anataka avizie tena apate support toka both the congress and the senate ili aweze kufanikisha mipango yao yote.
 
Sijali said:
In case I have missed out on Obamamite goodies: those who support Obama, could you kindly please tell us two things that the Americans and the world have enjoyed and appreciated, thanks to Obama?
Click to expand...
He has restored America's image abroad. He saved the US economy from collapsing from Bush's mismanagement.
Umesema two things kwa hiyo nitaachia hapo.
 
jmushi1 said:
Bin Laden hayupo and hence a better and safer world.

Kwenye uchumi kuna improvements na pia situationa could've been worst kama si policies zake kama stimulus package, cash fo clunkers, bailouts and all that.

Sidhani kama unafuatilia hizi issue, inawezekana unasukumwa na hisia zaidi na propaganda za right wings na tea party poopers lol

Saa hizi kuna 99%, sijui kuhusu tea partiers kama na wao ni pasenti ngapi ya wananchi and if they can handle the massive changes about to come, hao occupy wallstreet wanataka same changes ambazo Obama aliahidi kabla ya kuingia madarakani.

Matajiri na corporations ni lazima watambue kuwa hawakuuokoteza huo utajiri barabarani, they got it kwa msaada mkubwa sana wa hao 99 percenters.

Wakishakubali tu kuwa its time for them to pay their fair share, basi mambo itakuwa sawa tu, kwa ttarifa yako matajiri waligoma kuwekeza kwenye utawala wake wa first term, they have been sitting on the cash, nadhani wakihope kuwa chuki dhidi ya jamaa itazidi kwa wancnhi na hivyo ataondolewa na kuwa only a one term president, lakini mwanamme kasavaiv!

Wameviziana sana kwa hii term ya kwanza, sasa naona Obama anataka avizie tena apate support toka both the congress and the senate ili aweze kufanikisha mipango yao yote.
Click to expand...

Mangi naona umekariri zile talking points za Democrat party kama kasuku vile. Yaani ujasahau hata moja. Yaani hata mtu akikuamsha usingizini unaweza kuzirudia kama hapo juu. Lakini jaribu kufikiri mara moja moja. Usikariri tuu talking points. Huyo Obama unafikiri hizo dola bilioni moja za kufanya kampeni 2012 ametoa wapi? Si hao hao matajiri wamempa. Sasa kama matajiri wanamchukia Obama kwa nini wanataka tena arudi madarakani? Na hicho kifo cha Bin Laden kimezidisha amani vipi? Mbona vita bado zinaendelea? Tena Obama alianzisha nyingine mpya hapo Libya?
 
kmdh said:
Hiyo namba ya 70% sidhani kama ni ya kuaminika. Ukiangalia sehemu ambazo Latino ni wengi kama California, kuna chuki sana kati ya weusi na Latino. Tena zile jela za kubwa za California yaani ni vita kabisa kati ya Latino na Weusi. Yaani weusi na Latino hawaruhusiwi kukaa pamoja. Halafu huko ma uswazi wanapokaa ndiyo usiseme kabisa. Ma gangs ya Latino na weusi wanachinjana kama kuku. Halafu subiri hiyo 2050 ambayo Latino wanatarajiwa kuwa wengi Marekani nzima. Weusi watanyanyaswa sana na Latino.
Click to expand...


Hiyo ni opinion poll iliyofanyika hivi karibuni inaweza kuwa off by few points. (+/-) Kuchinjana kwa weusi na latino hakuwazuii latino kumpigia kura 'Bama kama wanamuona ni bora kuliko hao wengine wa kutoka GOP.
 
Jasusi said:
He has restored America's image abroad. He saved the US economy from collapsing from Bush's mismanagement.
Umesema two things kwa hiyo nitaachia hapo.
Click to expand...

Yale yale. Sasa mbona uchumi wa Amerika bado uko hoi? Na hiyo picha ya Amerika amei restore kivipi? Mbona foreign policies za Obama na Bush ni sawa tuu? Yaani hakuna tofauti. Halafu tena OBama ndiyo ameongezea vita mpya ya Libya na anaweza kuleta mpya nyingine hapo Iran. Sielewe unachokiongea. Inaelekea na wewe ni kasuku mwingine. Unarudia rudia tuu mambo.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar Discussions

Back
Top Bottom
Forums
New posts
Post thread
Back