Dismiss Notice
You are browsing this site as a guest. It takes 2 minutes to CREATE AN ACCOUNT and less than 1 minute to LOGIN

Obama aendelea kung'ara

Discussion in 'International Forum' started by ESAM, Sep 20, 2012.

  1. E

    ESAM JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Sep 20, 2012
    Joined: Mar 15, 2011
    Messages: 959
    Likes Received: 20
    Trophy Points: 35
    Pamoja na uchumi dhaifu anaonekana bado kuwa chaguo la Wamarekani angalau mpaka wakati huu, ila hatijui ya kesho. WanaJF hebu tujadili hili baada ya kusoma maoni ya wachumi wawili hapa chini, Haya JISOMEENI WENYEWE MWONE:

    It sounds surprising: President Obama is polling well in the nation's key battleground states, despite a national economy that Americans know to be less than terrific, to use just a bit of understatement.

    Mr. Obama currently leads against Republican challenger Mitt Romney in eight out of nine states where the two are in tight contests, according to an average of state-level polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics.

    These swing states, which are poised to decide the election outcome, include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Among those, North Carolina is the one where Mr. Romney currently has an edge.

    Are you more (or less) liberal than President Obama? Take our quiz!
    The president appears to be faring well despite obvious economic problems that persist on his watch:
    • The US unemployment rate is 8.1 percent. The last time a president won reelection with an unemployment rate above 8 percent was Franklin Roosevelt – further back than the Labor Department can go with its monthly histories of the unemployment rate.
    • Although job growth has been positive during the past two years, the nation has fewer jobs now than when Obama took office.
    • The Census Bureau announced last week that household incomes, after adjusting for inflation, have gone down each year since the recession began in 2007 – including a 1.5 percent decline last year.

    What gives?
    Many pundits are busy analyzing alleged shortcomings in Romney's messaging, and some campaign-trail missteps. Others have taken note of the pro-Obama pep talk given by former President at the Democratic National Convention, and a prodigious amount of advertising dollars spent recently by the Obama campaign.

    But part of the answer is more mundane: Obama's position in the polls may not be that surprising after all. By some measures, it matches up pretty well with the economic signals that swing-state voters are receiving in their paychecks, in the help-wanted ads, and in local real estate markets.
    Ray Fair, a Yale University economist who has created a model designed to predict election outcomes based on economic performance, says current conditions suggest a close election, not one tilted obviously against the incumbent. And although Obama may be up in swing-state polls for now, his edge remains vulnerable.

    "The election is too close to call," Mr. Fair says, citing the numbers in his model and noting that they are fairly consistent with what opinion surveys show. His model currently suggests that Obama will get 49.5 percent of all two-party (Romney or Obama) voters, with a margin of error of about 2 percentage points.
    One key reason Obama exhibits what may seem like surprising strength: Despite all the negatives about the US economy, some important trends have been getting better, not worse, during the past year. Jobs are up. Unemployment is down. Home prices have stopped falling and begun to rise. US stock indexes have been rising back toward pre-recession peaks.
    And the swing states, representing a fairly broad cross-section of the nation, aren't noticeably worse off than other locales.
    After adjusting for the electoral clout of each swing state (so that Florida has more influence than Iowa) the nine current "toss-up" states have an average unemployment rate of 8 percent, essentially the same as the national average.
    In Fair's model, based on historical outcomes of elections since 1916, incumbents enter any race with a built-in advantage. A weak national economy will lower the incumbent's chances. But what matters most, according to his research, is the performance of the economy roughly one or two years leading up to the vote.
    In other words, it's more "what have you done for me lately?" than "are you better off now than you were four years ago?" In this election in particular, voters appear ready to cut Obama some slack given that he took office at a time of crisis, with the nation's job count was declining rapidly.
    The Yale professor isn't the only one who has tried to model the economics of elections. Washington Postpolitical blogger Ezra Klein recently worked with some political scientists on the challenge, and came to a similar conclusion.

    "My expectation that incumbents lose when the economy is weak was not backed up by the data," Mr. Klein wrote last week. Rather, the numbers "suggest that incumbents win unless major economic indicators are headed in the wrong direction, as was true with unemployment in 1980 and 1992."

    A Christian Science Monitor analysis early this year also pointed to the importance of unemployment's direction, not just its level.

    During the past year, the nation's official unemployment rate has fallen by a full percentage point. And gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has been rising steadily.
    The swing states fall into a few distinct camps:
    Still in trouble. This group of states includes Nevada (6 electoral votes), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), and Colorado (9). Those are listed in order from the highest unemployment (Nevada at 12 percent) to the lowest (Colorado at 8.3 percent, just above the national average). Nevada and Florida are also housing-bust epicenters, where many mortgage-borrowers have seen the value of their homes plunge below their loan balances. Colorado's jobless rate isn't ultra high, but it hasn't budged in the past year.

    Recovering. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) and Ohio (18) each have unemployment just a bit above 7 percent. And in both states, residents have seen solid improvement in the past year.

    Doing pretty well. Virginia (13 electoral votes), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4) all have unemployment rates below 6 percent. Each of these states has a sizable share of politically conservative voters, though. That, coupled with voters' general anxiety about the national economy, could keep these states in play even though they're among the nation's best job-market performers.

    If the other 40 states break the way pollsters are expecting, Romney needs 79 or more of 110 swing-state electoral votes to win. There's still a ways to go before voting day, but with the economy "improving" as well as "weak," Romney so far hasn't gotten the polling advantage that some forecasters predicted.
     
  2. Nzenzu

    Nzenzu JF-Expert Member

    #2
    Sep 20, 2012
    Joined: Aug 10, 2011
    Messages: 859
    Likes Received: 1
    Trophy Points: 0
    Foward-Obama
     
  3. S

    Starn JF-Expert Member

    #3
    Sep 20, 2012
    Joined: Oct 10, 2011
    Messages: 400
    Likes Received: 1
    Trophy Points: 35
    Haituhusu!
     
  4. mtotowamjini

    mtotowamjini JF-Expert Member

    #4
    Sep 20, 2012
    Joined: Apr 23, 2012
    Messages: 4,540
    Likes Received: 3
    Trophy Points: 0
    obama sio kwamba ni popular zaidi ila republicans mtu wao ovyo..any american with a brain knows romney hawezi kua rais wa america ataipeleka hiyo nchi pabaya ndio maana watu wanaona bora obama aendelee...he's so unpopular within his own party
     
  5. chash

    chash JF-Expert Member

    #5
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: Jun 5, 2012
    Messages: 496
    Likes Received: 0
    Trophy Points: 33
    si umeshasikia kuna 47% ambao lazima wampigie Obama no matter what? Hivyo anatafuta 4% kuweza kushinda. Ila atapata shida democrats watakavyo gunduliwa walipata hiyo video kwa njia gani .Ina hisiwa waliweka camera kwenye mkutano wa romney bila ruhusa. Hiyo ni kashfa mbaya sana ya kulinganishwa na watergate scandal iliyo mtoa Nixon.
     
  6. MaxShimba

    MaxShimba JF-Expert Member

    #6
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: Apr 11, 2008
    Messages: 35,808
    Likes Received: 94
    Trophy Points: 145
    Rap-thePublic are flabbergasted. Where is Mother Jones?
     
  7. Kigogo

    Kigogo JF-Expert Member

    #7
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: Dec 14, 2007
    Messages: 19,245
    Likes Received: 35
    Trophy Points: 145
    well said..Romney ni mtu wa hovyo kabisa ...sijui walimtoa wapi yaani ni kama wagombea wa CCM tu ,,yaani hana vision kabisa
     
  8. Zogwale

    Zogwale JF-Expert Member

    #8
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: Jul 10, 2008
    Messages: 11,470
    Likes Received: 592
    Trophy Points: 280
    Ila kwa uchumi wa dunia ulivyoyumba hao wamarekani wanataka Obama afanye nini? Hata ulaya uchumi unayumba na massive financial lifts zinafanyika sasa huko Marekani ni isolated island? Hebu wamuache mwafrika-amerika wa watu.
     
  9. K

    Kifarutz JF-Expert Member

    #9
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: Aug 7, 2012
    Messages: 1,681
    Likes Received: 2
    Trophy Points: 135
    Mkuu tiririka zaidi, ni video gani hiyo unayozungumzia?
     
  10. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

    #10
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: May 5, 2006
    Messages: 11,450
    Likes Received: 100
    Trophy Points: 145
    4 more years! 4 more years!
     
  11. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

    #11
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: May 5, 2006
    Messages: 11,450
    Likes Received: 100
    Trophy Points: 145
    Achana na Chash. Imeshavuja hiyo na imeshakula kwake Romney. Hakuna cha kashfa wala cha bibi yake kashfa!
     
  12. K

    Kifarutz JF-Expert Member

    #12
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: Aug 7, 2012
    Messages: 1,681
    Likes Received: 2
    Trophy Points: 135
    I mean video ilikuwa inahusu nini?
     
  13. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: May 5, 2006
    Messages: 11,450
    Likes Received: 100
    Trophy Points: 145
    Ni ile video ambapo Romney anasema asilimia 47% ya wale watakaompigia kura Obama ni mabwege wanaotegemea fadhila za serikali. Hawajitumi na wanategemea vya kupewa bure.
     
  14. chash

    chash JF-Expert Member

    #14
    Sep 21, 2012
    Joined: Jun 5, 2012
    Messages: 496
    Likes Received: 0
    Trophy Points: 33
    Romney alinaswa kwenye video cam akitamka,

    "There are 47 percent who are with him [
    President Obama], who are dependent upon government, who believe they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it,"

    Angalia hii link Mitt Romney video fact check: Is 47 percent of US 'dependent' on government? - CSMonitor.com

    Kwenye huo mkutano haijulikani ni nani aliye shoot hiyo video na inaelekea ilitumika remote control
     
  15. Candid Scope

    Candid Scope JF-Expert Member

    #15
    Sep 22, 2012
    Joined: Nov 8, 2010
    Messages: 11,892
    Likes Received: 50
    Trophy Points: 145
    [​IMG]

    Candidates wazuri kutoka Republican hawapendi kupambana na aliye madarakani kwani mazingiara yanampa favor kulikoa ambaye ana-struggle. Unakumbuka yule mama aliyekuwa Gavana wa kule Alaska, ameingia mitini na hatumsikii tena, ataibuka mwishoni mwa awamu ya pili ya Obama kama atapita.

    Huyu wa Republican alishapigwa mweleka uchaguzi mkuu uliopita, bora angeamua kuendelea na biashra zake, vinginevyoa atajutia pesa anazozipoteza.

    Ameshalipuliwa kwamba ni mkwepaji mkubwa wa kodi. Yeye akiwa bilionea amelipa tax kidogo kuliko Obama milionea.
     
  16. kmdh

    kmdh JF-Expert Member

    #16
    Sep 22, 2012
    Joined: May 19, 2010
    Messages: 505
    Likes Received: 0
    Trophy Points: 0
    Wewe umekariri talking points za Democratic party, sidhani kama umetafakari fizuri haya mambo.
     
  17. kmdh

    kmdh JF-Expert Member

    #17
    Sep 22, 2012
    Joined: May 19, 2010
    Messages: 505
    Likes Received: 0
    Trophy Points: 0
    Hizi ni zile talking points za Democratic party. Ukweli ni kwamba Romney si bilionea na amelipa kodi zaidi ya Obama. Mwaka 2011 Obama amelipa kodi $162,000 na Romney amelipa kodi $1,935,708. Sasa nani amelipa zaidi hapo?
     
  18. kmdh

    kmdh JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Sep 22, 2012
    Joined: May 19, 2010
    Messages: 505
    Likes Received: 0
    Trophy Points: 0
    Obama ni socialist naye kama CCM. Sera zake za wealth redistribution zinanikumbusha zile za Azimio la Arusha na ujamaa aliotuletea Nyerere.
     
  19. Sikonge

    Sikonge JF-Expert Member

    #19
    Sep 22, 2012
    Joined: Jan 19, 2008
    Messages: 11,397
    Likes Received: 190
    Trophy Points: 160
    Inasemekana ni Mfanyakazi kwenye huo mnuso. Ila aliyeitangaza ni Mjukuu wa Rais wa zamani wa USA, Jimmy Carter.

    Huyu ana hasira sana na Republican kwani walimfanyia ujinga Babu yake kwenye ile Mission ya Iran, ndege zikagongana. Matokeo yake, Carter akashindwa kurudi madarakani (naona wanataka kufanya kwa Obama vilevile kwa kurusha hili li Video la kumkashifu Mtume Muhammad). Reggan alishinda na wale mateka wakarudishwa bila bughudha ila watu wakakomba mamilioni baadaye. Mwisho unasikia "USA huwa hawajadiliani na majasusi au Matekaji...."


     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  20. Candid Scope

    Candid Scope JF-Expert Member

    #20
    Sep 22, 2012
    Joined: Nov 8, 2010
    Messages: 11,892
    Likes Received: 50
    Trophy Points: 145
    Usiangalie kiasi cha kodi, angalia amound ya pesa aliyo nayo mtu.
    Obama ana kipato cha chini kuliko Romney
    Kodi aliyolipa Romney ni ya kiwango cha kipato cha kati ambapo alitakiwa kulipa % si chini ya 33, amejitahidi kukwepa kwa kusingizia kwamba amepeleka pesa kusaidia jamii.
     
Loading...