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Niliyojifunza kutokana na mapinduzi ya egypt

Discussion in 'International Forum' started by m_kishuri, Feb 15, 2011.

  1. m_kishuri

    m_kishuri JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Feb 15, 2011
    Joined: Jan 27, 2010
    Messages: 1,470
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    An era came to end on Friday last week as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down after nearly 30 years in power. This historic event has sent a shock in the Middle East. Kwa kizazi chetu, hii kweli ni historia. I mean, kwa wale waliosoma Social Science (History na Political Science) watakubaliana na mimi kwamba, 200 years later baada ya French Revolution, bado scholars wanasoma na kuandika kuhusu mapinduzi hayo yaliyoleta mabadiliko duniani. Mapinduzi haya ya Egypt, na ambayo wote tumeshuhudia ni ya kwetu kuandika na kusimulia kwa watoto na wajukuu zetu wa kizazi kijacho.
    Mapinduzi haya yamenifundisha mambo machache yafuatayo:
    Kwanza, nimegunduwa kwamba wakati mwengine Raisi wa Marekani (Obama Administration kwa sasa) huwa hana majibu wala power ya kubadilisha baadhi ya mambo duniani kama tulivyoona kwa Egpyt. Na pia zile pumba tulizokuwa tunalishwa na NEOCONS (US Conservative) kwamba Arabs, as opposed to Asians, Latin Americans, Africans and Europeans, were uniquely allergic to democracy sio za kweli, kwani leo tumejionea wenyewe kule Tunisia, na leo hii Egypt.
    Pili, nimeafikiana na wale wasomi wa masuala ya uhusiano wa Kimataifa kwamba, kweli President Obama ni REALIST (remember the defence of homeland interests as the supreme and overriding rule?). Hii inatokana na jinsi President Obama, Baiden na Secretary Clinton walivyokuwa wanachange kauli zao za kila siku kuhusu Egypt (Siwalaumu kwani hali ilikuwa inabadilika kila dakika).
    Tatu, maandamo ya Tahiri Square yalikuwa ya wananchi wenye uchungu na nchi yao and very popular. Hakukuwa na any signs of Radical Islamists. Hivyo basi, ile kauli marufu ya viongozi wan nchi za kiarabu kwamba “its either us or Islamic terrorism” haina ukweli wowote. At least mpaka alipoondoka Mubarak majuzi, Muslim Brotherhood walikuwa kama hawapo kwenye maandamano.
    Nne ni changamoto inayoletwa na haya mapinduzi kwenye Ghuba ya Uajemi, haswa kwa Israel. Baada ya 1978 Camp David Peace Accord, suala la usalama wa Israel halikuwa tatizo tena. Yes, kumekuwa na vurugu za hapa na pale kutoka kwa Hamas, Hizbollah na Intifada ya Palestina, lakini yote hayo hayakuwa yanatishia usalama wa Israel kama ilivyokuwa vita na Egypt. Lakini kuanzia sasa, mambo yatabadilika- Inaweza isiwe leo, lakini mambo yatabadilika.
    Kwenye suala hilohilo la Israel/ Egypt kuna mtihani mwingine; Karibia 60% ya raia wa Egypt ambao wana umri kati ya 25-30 hawakuonja kasheshe ya vita baina ya nchi hizo tatu, yaani 1956, 1967, na 1973. Ukweli ni kwamba, wengi wao walizaliwa baada ya kusainiwa kwa Camp David in 1978, hivyo basi hawakuonja joto ya jiwe. Kwa upande mwingine, wanajeshi wengi (haswa maafisa wa ngazi juu) katika jeshi la Egypt ambao walishiriki katika vita na Israel wamekwishazeeka, na baada ya kupambana na Israel mara tatu, hawakuwa na hamu tena ya vita. Zaidi, wengi wao wanaishi vizuri kutokana na mishara minono na marupurupu kutoka Marekani. Hivyo basi, upo uwezekano mkubwa kwamba Egypt mpya ikawa tofauti ya zamani, haswa kwenye mikataba ya amani na Israel.
    Vilevile, baada ya mapinduzi ya Egypt na Tunisia, tumeshuhidia mabadiliko mbalimbali katika nchi za Kiarabu. Kwa mfano, huko Jordan, Prince Abdallah amevunja baraza lake la mawaziri na kuteua waziri mkuu mpya na baraza jipya la mawaziri. Huko Koweit, mfalme Al-Sabah ameamua kumuhonga kila Mkoweit $ 3,500 za bure ili kuwatuliza. Na Yemen, Rais Ally Saleh amahidi kutogombea uchaguzi in 2013. Yote haya ni kutokana na ukweli kwamba Egypt ndio jabali la Mashariki ya Kati, toka enzi za Abdul Naseer. It’s also the largest and the most populated in the region (takriban watu million 80). Kwa kweli Techtonic Plates za Middle East zimeanza kumove (Nakumbuka darasa la Geografia La mwalimu MZEZELE).:clap2:
    Mwisho kabisa ni winner and looser kwenye hii SAGA. Binafsi nadhani Winner bila shaka ni Egyptian People. They chose democracy instead of tyranny kama walivyofanya in 1952 pale walipoupindua ufalme. Winner mwingine, kwa maoni yangu ni Uturuki, kwani wao ndio modal ambayo watu wengi (The West) wanategema Egypt wafuate; ya kiislamu na yenye kufuata demokrasia.
    Looser, of course Mubaraka and his family. Walidhani kwamba wataendelea kuwafool Wamisri mpaka mwishi wa dunia. Mwingine, kwa maoni yangu ni Iran. Endapo Egypt itaibuka na kujiendeleza kiuchumi na kijeshi, basi ile nafasi ya Iran kama mtetezi wa mambo ya nchi za Kiislamu na Waarabu kwa ujumla (haswa Palestina) itakuwa imepata mpinzani. Nadhani Irani kaanza kununa. Zaidi ya hapo Wananchi wa Iran wameona mafanyikio ya Misri na Tunisia, hivyo nao wamehamasika.
    Pamoja na haya yote, natumaini pande zote husika katika sakata hili zitakuwa tayari kukaa nchini na kujadiliana jinsi ya kupambana na hali ya mabadiliko yaliyoletwa na mapinduzi haya, vinginevyo Hell will break loose.
     
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