MUHIMU: The fuel crisis - facts and figures - Pata undani wa ukokotaji wa bei ya mafuta!

[Susuviri]

DISCLAIMER: I am not and never have been an employee or beneficiary of any Oil Marketing company or dealer. What has pushed me to do this calculation is in trying to find the truth and in finding it more clearly in facts and figures. I am looking forward a clean debate free of political rhetoric.

After reading and hearing a lot of rhetoric about the fuel crisis in Dar I have decided to take a closer look at the pricing mechanism and formula and have reached the following conclusion based on my calculations (all data from www.ewura.go.tz ):

Since January 2009, EWURA has been publishing 2 prices, indicative and cap, for petrol, diesel and kerosene. The cap price was set at 7.5% higher than the indicative price for each fuel type. Thus, in the case of petrol, the indicative and cap prices for Dar had been:

TZS/Ltr	Indicative	Cap	Price Diff.	% Diff.
27-Jan-09	1,250	1,344	94	7.5%
22-Jul-09	1,421	1,528	107	7.5%
06-Jan-10	1,426	1,533	107	7.5%
07-Jul-10	1,563	1,681	118	7.5%
05-Jan-11	1,722	1,852	130	7.5%
01-Jul-11	2,052	2,206	154	7.5%

Furthermore, the then used formula to calculate indicative prices (i.e. old formula) included TZS 101.11/liter and TZS 53.49/liter (TZS 154.6/liter combined) fixed amounts, defined as overheads and margins for wholesalers and retailers.

The old formula meant that wholesalers and retailers room to meet indirect costs and earn profits was kept within a minimum/maximum range of the fixed amount in the formula plus the difference between indicative and cap prices. Thus, in the case of petrol:

	Margin Range
TZS/Ltr	Min.	Max.
27/Jan/09	154.60	248.60
22/Jul/09	154.60	261.60
06/Jan/10	154.60	261.60
07/Jul/10	154.60	272.60
05/Jan/11	154.60	284.60
01/Jul/11	154.60	308.60

On the 3rd of August 2011, the formula changed; a single cap price was announced, thus the earlier logic of indicative and cap prices was discarded. In the new formula the 7.5% margin, instead of being applied to the retail price, was applied to the fix portion of the wholesalers and dealers overheads and margins. Thus, these fixed amounts were increased to TZS 108.69/liter (wholesale) and TZS 57.50/liter (retail) or TZS 166.19 (combined); exactly 7.50% higher than they had been earlier.

This means that the room wholesalers and retailers had to meet overheads and earn profits was curtailed significantly.
For example, the new maximum (TZS 166.19) is 46% lower than the maximum had been on 1st, July 2011 (TZS 308.60) and 33% lower than it had been on 27th, January 2009 (TZS 248.60).

Had the August 3rd, 2011 petrol price been calculated based on the old formula, indicative and cap prices would have been TZS 1,992.20/liter and TZS 2,141.62/liter respectively; thus the minimum/ maximum range would have been between TZS 154.6/liter and TZS 304.02/liter.
Instead wholesalers and retailers had to be content with a maximum of TZS 166.19/liter; thus 45% less. No wonder they are up-in-arms.

This also means that of the TZS 202.21/liter (9.2%) petrol price decrease relative to the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] July 2011 cap price, TZS 137.83 (or 68% of the total, thus the brunt of it) had been achieved at the expense of wholesalers and retailers.

My opinion:
The fuel crisis happened because the Ministry (of Energy and Minerals) and EWURA changed the rule of the game in a fundamental way from one month to the next. Private enterprise enters a business with expectations as to the potential on the market to meet costs plus earn profits. When that potential is cut from one month to the next, by government decree, by 45% in terms of meeting indirect costs and earning profits; it is not reasonable.

Admittedly, given how crude prices have shot up since January 2009, it could be argued that the 7.5% indicative to cap price margin is too high and should be lowered. But going from a 7.5% to a 0.6% margin as had been the case here is, yet again, unreasonable.

Also, the manner in which EWURA tried to change the rule of the game, by reinterpreting the 7.5% margin to apply to wholesalers and dealers fixed margins instead of the wholesale and retail price, is not only unreasonable; it is outright deceitful. Furthermore, EWURA, as an independent agency, failed in its mandate to keep undue political pressure and meddling from affecting the proper functioning of the market.

I welcome your comments and opinions...

 

[Susuviri]

Kwa Kiswahili:
Tokea Januari 2009, EWURA imekuwa ikitoa bei 2: bei elekezi na bei ya kikomo kwa ajili ya mafuta ya petrol, dizel na mafuta ya taa. Bei ya kikomo ilikuwa zaidi ya bei elekezi kwa asilimia 7.5. Hivyo kwa mkoa wa Dar bei zilikuwa zifuatazo:

TZS/Ltr	Elekezi	Kikomo	Tofauti ya bei.	Tofauti kwa %
27-Jan-09	1,250	1,344	94	7.5%
22-Jul-09	1,421	1,528	107	7.5%
06-Jan-10	1,426	1,533	107	7.5%
07-Jul-10	1,563	1,681	118	7.5%
05-Jan-11	1,722	1,852	130	7.5%
01-Jul-11	2,052	2,206	154	7.5%

Pamoja na hayo, formula wakati ule uliotumika kukokotoa bei elekezi ilikuwa na bei ya kupanga - TZS 101.11/lita na TZS 53.49/lita (TZS 154.6/lita kwa wastani wa jumla) iliyoitwa "matumizi na faida" ya wauzaji wa jumla na wa rejareja. Hivyo kuwa na wigo au margin range kama ifuatavyo.

	Margin Range
TZS/Ltr	Min.	Max.
27/Jan/09	154.60	248.60
22/Jul/09	154.60	261.60
06/Jan/10	154.60	261.60
07/Jul/10	154.60	272.60
05/Jan/11	154.60	284.60
01/Jul/11	154.60	308.60

Tarehe 3 Agosti 2011, formula ilibadilishwa na kuwekwa bei moja ya kikomo. Katika formula mpya ile tofauti au margin ya asilimia 7.5 haikukokotelewa kutoka bei ya rejareja bali kwenye ile bei ya kupanga inayoitwa "matumizi na faida" ya wauzaji. HIvyo idadi hiyo iliongezeka na kuwa TZS 108.69/lita (jumla) and TZS 57.50/lita (rejareja) au TZS 166.19 (wastani kwa ujumla) ; hii ni asilimia 7.5 zaidi ya bei ya awali.
Hata hivyo hii ina maanisha kuwa nafasi ya wauzaji jumla na rejareja kufidia gharama na matumizi na faida yao imepunguzwa kwa kiasi kikubwa.
Kwa mfano kwa formula hii mpya bei ya juu (TZS 166.19) imepungua 46% ya bei ya juu ya Julai mosi 2011 (TZS 308.60) na imepungua kwa 33% kuliko bei ya Januari 27 2011(TZS 248.60).
Kama bei ya Agosti 3 2011 ingekokotolewa kwa kutumia formula ya zamani basi bei elekezi na bei ya kikomo ingekuwa TZS 1,992.20/lita na TZS 2,141.62/lita; hivyo tofauti kati ya bei ya juu na chini ingekuwa kati ya TZS 154.6/lita na TZS 304.02/lita.
Badala yake kwa sasa wauzaji wa jumla na rejareja wanatakiwa kupata si zaidi ya TZS 166.19/lita; ambayo ni punguzo la 45%. Hivyo si ajabu kuwa wamepinga vikali mabadiliko haya.

Hii pia inamaanisha ya kuwa katika punguzo lililofanyika la TZS 202.21/lita (9.2%) ya bei ya petrol ukilinganisha na bei ya kikomo ya Julai mosi 2011, TZS 137.83 (au 68% ya jumla hivyo sehmu kubwa ya TZS202.21/lita) imepatikana kwa kuwalalia wauzaji wa jumla na rejareja.

Maoni yangu:
Mgogoro wa mafuta ulianza pale Wizara na EWURA walipoamua kubadili masharti ya biashara kwa njia muhimu sana kutoka mwezi mmoja hadi mwingine. Kampuni binfasi inaingia katika biashara ikiwa na matarajio yanayotokana na uwezekano uliopo katika soko la kulipa gharama zake na kutengeneza gharama. Kama uwezo huu unapunguzwa kutoka mwezi mmoja hadi mwingine, kwa amri ya serikali, tena kwa asilimia 45% , hii haijakaa sawa.

Ni kweli kuwa bei ya mafuta katika soko la kimataifa imekua kwa kasi tokea Januari 2009, na inaweza kukubalika ya kuwa tofauti ya asilimia 7.5% kati ya bei elekezi na bei ya kikomo ni kubwa. Hata hivyo kushuka kutoka asilimia 7.5 kwenda 0.6 tena haiinigii akilini.

Pia njia iliyotumika ya EWURA ya kubadili masharti kwa kubadilisha maana na ukokotoaji wa tofauti ya 7.5% kutoka bei ya kupanga ya auzaji na badala yake kuikokotoa kutoka bei yenyewe haikuwa sawa na ilifanyika kidanganyifu.
Pia EWURA kama chombo kinachojitegemea imeshindwa kusimama katika majukumu yake ya kubaki nje ya uwanja wa siasa na imeingilia kati soko.

Naomba kuwaarifu kuwa mi si mfanyakazi wala sijawahi kunufaika na makampuni ya mafuta au biashara yake. Hata hivyo naamini siku zote kuwa ni muhimu kupata ukweli wa mambo na ukwei hupatikana katika namba na ukweli wa mambo.
Naomba tusaidiane kurekebishana na kutafuta data zaidi kwani naamini kuwa mgomo au mgogoro huu chanzo kikuu ni SERIKALI!
Nawasilisha.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Njoo kule International forums so I can kick your ass.

 

[Susuviri]

Njoo kule International forums so I can kick your ass.

Mkuu nitakuja ngoja tupambane na matatizo ya nyumbani kwanza! Vipi umekosa watu wa kulumbana nao kwenye jukwaa hilo?

 

[RealMan]

Umeng'ang'ana na matokeo ya ukokotoaji, huonyeshi hayo mafuta yanapatikana kwa bei gani hadi yanafika hapa ili hizo percentage tuone zinatumikaje.

Wasomi nyie mnatuvuruga tu!

 

[Susuviri]

Umeng'ang'ana na matokeo ya ukokotoaji, huonyeshi hayo mafuta yanapatikana kwa bei gani hadi yanafika hapa ili hizo percentage.

Wasomi nyie mnatuvuruga tu!

Mkuu mi nimeleta data nilizopata na kuonyesha ni jinsi gani ukokotoaji mpya ulivyobadilika. Hayo unayoyasema wewe basi uchangie kwa kuongeza data hizo kama unazo. Sasa nimekuvuruga nini, mkuu? Au hesabu haipandi? Natumaini umesoma kwa makini mahesabu haya.

 

[RealMan]

Mkuu mi nimeleta data nilizopata na kuonyesha ni jinsi gani ukokotoaji mpya ulivyobadilika. Hayo unayoyasema wewe basi uchangie kwa kuongeza data hizo kama unazo. Sasa nimekuvuruga nini, mkuu? Au hesabu haipandi? Natumaini umesoma kwa makini mahesabu haya.

Wekeni hesabu ili hata sie tuloishia skuli za kata tuelewe.
Nikitaka kuagiza ki-starlet naweza nikapiga hesabu kwamba mpaka naitoa bandarini itagharimu kiasi fulani.
Sasa wasomi kama mnatakiwa kutuelimisha kwamba mafuta kule arabuni yanagharimu kiasi kadhaa pamoja na gharama za bima, TRA, TPA, EWURA, TBS etc ili kupata bei elekezi.

Tuelimisheni vizuri!