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Mkullo, Ndullu na Uchumi Uchwara

Discussion in 'Biashara, Uchumi na Ujasiriamali' started by Mchambuzi, Nov 5, 2011.

  1. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Nov 5, 2011
    Joined: Aug 24, 2007
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    Maana ya neno uchwara kwa lugha ya wenzetu ni ‘Worthless.’ Ni muhimu tukalielewa hili wazi at the outset.

    Mwaka 2008 wakati mtikisiko wa uchumi duniani unaanza kukamata moto, Rais Kikwete alitoa kauli ya kuwahakikishia Watanzania kwamba msukosuko huo hautaleta madhara kwa watanzania kwasababu uchumi wetu hauna deep linkages with the global economy; nina uhakika kwamba Rais alitoa matamshi hayo baada ya kushauriwa na watu aliowateua kuongoza taasisi nyeti za uchumi na fedha – Gavana Ndullu na Waziri Mkullo. Miezi michache baadae, Professor Ndullu akawaeleza watanzania kwamba taasisi yake (BOT) imejizatiti kikamilifu kukabiliana na msukosuko huo na kwamba tupo in safe hands. Haikuchukua muda mrefu kabla hali kuanza kubadilika mpaka kupelekea tatizo la mfumuko wa bei leo hii unaokimbilia asilimia 18. Cha kustaajabisha, bado Waziri Mkullo anakaririwa akisema uchumi upo imara. Mkullo na Ndullu ndio watu waliopewa dhamana ya kusimamia uchumi na fedha zetu, na moja kwa moja hawa wawili ndio sikio kuu la rais Kikwete on that end – kwahivyo kauli zote za rais kwa walipa kodi na wapiga kura wake juu ya hali na mwenendo wa uchumi wa Tanzania zinatokana na ushauri na maelezo ya hawa watu wawili kwa rais; kulikoni Rais hadi sasa anakosa usingizi asijue la kuwaeleza wananchi juu ya hali ya uchumi ya leo? Bila shaka, hadi hivi sasa Rais hana taarifa zenye mashiko na za uhakika juu ya kwanini tumefika hapa na tuchukue hatua gani kuishinda shida hii pamoja na kujizatiti isitukumbe tena kama taifa. Hii ndio maintiki ya kuita makala hii ‘Mkullo, Ndullu na uchumi Uchwara kwani kwa nafasi walizonazo wameshindwa kumsaidia Rais kikamilifu katika kusimamia uchumi kikamilifu hivyo kupelekea wananchi kubaki wanahangaika wasijue la kufanya.
    There are all indications that the monetary authorities in Tanzania have been caught by surprise with the erratic behavior of inflation in the recent period, particularly Mkullo kwani bajeti yake hivi sasa haitekelezeki kwani costing ya items in his budget haikuzingatia uwezekano wa kufumuka kwa bei kiasi hiki. Kwa hivyo, ili bajeti yake itekelezeke ni lazima Mkullo ata submit a mini budget in the next 3 months. Tutarajie kuliona hili.

    Now, what makes inflation such a big issue?
    Madhara ya mfumuko wa bei on households and business unategemea zaidi kama mfumuko huo ulitarajiwa au haukutarajiwa. Tuangalie kwa haraka haraka tofauti kati ya anticipated and un anticipated inflation na madhara yake.
    • Anticipated inflation:
    Anticipated inflation ni hali ya wananchi (households na businesses) kuwa na uwezo wa kufanya accurate predictions juu ya mfumuko wa bei siku za usoni, na kuwa na uwezo wa kuchukua hatua mapema ili kukabiliana na tatizo hilo siku za mbeleni. Kwa mfano, Vyama vya wafanyakazi kama TUCTA wanaweza tumia nguvu yao ya pamoja kushinikiza waajiri wao wapandishe mishahara kama monetary authroties zitatoa alerts in advance (sio kuishia kutoa kauli tatizo likishafika). Pia if inflation is anticipated, wananchi wenye akiba zao benki wanaweza toa fedha zao toka kwenye savings na kupeleka kwa deposit accounts au kwingine kokote ili zisipoteze thamani kwa kubakia benki. Businesses pia zinaweza zika adjust bei zao mapema, na lenders wanaweza adjust interest rate zao mapema. Katika mazingira haya, madhara ya mfumuko wa bei kwa businesses na wananchi yanakuwa sio makubwa. Lakini hilo haliwezekani kama uchumi husika ni Uchumi Uchwara.

    • Unanticipated inflation:
    Uchumi wetu uchwara umekumbwa na unanticipated inflation. Mfumuko wa bei ukiwa na tabia ya kubadilika upesi upesi na bila mwelekeo i.e. volatile from month to month or from year to year, inakuwa ngumu kwa wananchi na wafanyabiashara to correctly predict the rate of inflation siku za mbeleni. Hali hii ya unanticipated inflation hutokea pale economic agents ambao ni wananchi na wafanyabiashara na serikali wanapo fanya makosa in their inflation forecast kutokana na uzembe wa serikali (haswa taasisi zake za kifedha). Kwa mfano actual inflation may end up way below or significantly above expectations na kupelekea madhara mengi moja wapo ikiwa loss of real income. Real income ni ile ambayo ipo adjusted for inflation. Nitatoa mfano:

    Sote tunafahamu kwamba interest rates are the prices that link the present and the future. Na kama tunavyojua, interest rate ambayo mtanzania analipwa kwa kuwekeza madafu yake kwenye benki haizidi 3% (unless wewe ni milionea mwenye uwezo wa ku stash away millions of shillings for a year bila shida, na hawa ni minority). So if you went to any of the commercial banks in Tanzania in November 2010 with let’s say 100,000/= and stashed it into your savings account for a period of one year hoping kufaidi interest rate nzuri, ukienda kuzitoa leo November 2011 (baada ya mwaka mmoja) you would be able to withdraw your 100,000/= plus 3% interest (ambayo ni 3,000/= tu), na kupelekea benki yako kukupatia jumla ya 103,000/= mkononi. Now, does it mean kwamba, compared to November 2010 when you had 100,000/=, are you 103,000/= richer in November 2011?

    The answer depends on what you mean by the term ‘richer’. Certainly you have 3% (or 3,000/=) more shillings in your pocket lakini kama mfumuko wa bei umekuwa mkubwa sana katika kipindi chote ulichoweka hela zako benki, thereby kukufanya uweze kununua less goods and services in November 2011 compared to November 2010, then definitely your purchasing power has not risen by 3%, and instead it has either stayed stable or fallen. Kwa mfano, according to recently released inflation data by NBS, inflation rate in September 2010 stood at around 5%; however, as of September 2011, inflation rate was around 16.8%; what this means is: kwanza tujikumbushe kwamba interest rates are the prices that link the present and the future, Kwahiyo – when you put your 100,000/= into your savings in November 2010, your purchasing power was at 2% i.e. (5% inflation rate MINUS 3% interest rate on your savings); Now in September 2011 inflation rate imepanda kufikia 16.8% (from 5% in November 2010) which means your situation has gotten worse because now the amount of goods you can buy have decreased by 13.8% i.e. (16.8% inflation rate MINUS 3% savings deposit interest rate); huu ndio uchumi uchwara ambao wananchi hawana mamlaka za kuwasaidia with inflation anticipation so that wajipange/wafanye maamuzi wapi sahihi;

    Uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu umewafanya watanzania wasiweze kujipanga na pia umepelekea watanzania wenye ajira rasmi za mishahara (wafanyakazi serikalini, sekta binafsi, na NGOs) wajikute wanadanganyika kwamba mishahara au mapato yao yamepanda (i.e. money illusion). Kuna tofauti kati ya nominal wages (isiyozingatia inflation) na real wages (inayozingatia inflation), na watanzania wengi huwa wanajichanganya na suala hili na kujikuta maisha ya yanakuwa misled na effects of inflation. Kwa mfano kama mshahara wa mtu umepanda kwa asilimia 10, inaweza kumpa mtu an impression kwamba yupo better off in real terms. Lakini kama inflation nayo imepanda kwa asilimia kumi katika kipindi hicho, it means mfanyakazi huyo hajapata any growth in his or her real income. Hili ndio tatizo la money illusion – na linatokea sana katika mazingira ya unanticipated inflation ambayo yapo chini ya uchumi wetu Uchwara kwani people’s expectations of inflation turn out to be way distance from the correct or actual level. Unakuta hata waajiri wanashindwa kujipanga ili kuwakwamua watumishi wao.
    Uchumi uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu umepelekea disruption of planning in businesses in Tanzania. Kwani budgeting has become difficult because of the uncertainty created by rising inflation of both prices and costs; what is happening now ni kwamba there is a reduction in planned capital investment spending in the economy and lower investment has a detrimental effect on the economy’s long run growth potential.

    Serikali imechukua hatua gani kudhibiti mfumuko wa bei?
    Hatua zilizochukuliwa na benki kuu hivi majuzi ni ishara kwamba tafsiri ya serikali kupitia BOT ni kwamba chanzo cha tatizo la mfumuko wa bei ni uwepo wa fedha nyingi katika mzunguko kuliko bidhaa masokoni/madukani; Ndio maana Benki kuu kama msimamizi wa masuala ya fedha na uchumi ikaamua kuongeza bank rate (interest rate) kutoka asilimia 7.58 hadi asilimia 9.58 ili kuzipa benki za biashara incentive ya kuacha pesa zao BOT zifaidi ongezeko kubwa la riba na hivyo kupelekea kupungua kwa mzunguko wa pesa kwenye uchumi. An increase in this rate ina maana kwamba all commercial banks ambazo kisheria zinatakiwa ziwe na reserves BOT zitavutiwa na ongezeko hili la riba na hivyo kupelekea wao kuwekeza pesa nyingi zaidi BOT kuliko kwenye mzunguko wao na hivyo kupelekea kupungua kwa pesa katika mzunguko wa uchumi. Mbali na hatua hiyo, benki kuu pia imeongeza cash reserve requirement inayozitoza benki za biashara kutoka asilimia 10 hadi 20; kuanzia mwaka kama sikosei 2008, ili kufungua biashara yako ya benki, BOT inakupa masharti ya kuwa na mtaji wa dollar milioni 10 badala ya dollar milioni 4 ilivyokuwa awali; na mtaji huu unauweka BOT; sasa ukianza ku operate, every now and then BOT inafanya adjustments juu ya asilimia ngapi ya your cash reserve unatakia ibakie BOT; majuzi BOT imepandisha that requirement from 10% to 20% ikiwa na maana kwamba kila benki Tanzania lazima iache asilimia 20% ya mtaji wake BOT badala ya asilimia 10 ya awali. Matokeo yake ni benki za biashara kupungukiwa na fedha walizonazo na hivyo kupunguza wingi wa pesa katika mzunguko wa uchumi in the hope kwamba hili likitokea, with hope that this would lead into less pressure on prices of goods and service.
    BOT pia imechukua hatua nyingine kadhaa ya kuzuia shilingi yetu isporomoke dhidi ya dollar. Hatua zote hizi za BOT zinafuatia mamlaka na wajibu wake wakusimamia uchumi nyakati kama hizi kwa kutumia chombo kinachoitwa ‘Monetary Policy’ ambapo main tools ni pamoja na interest rate, cash reserve requirements, open market operations n.k – tumeona hapo awali BOT ikitumia baadhi ya hizi nyenzo; Mbali ya BOT, njia nyingine ya kusimamia na kuratibu uchumi sana sana nyakati kama hizi hupitia Wizara ya Fedha/Hazina. Hazina ina nyenzo kwa jina la ‘Fiscal Policy’ ambapo ili kurekebisha mfumuko wa bei n.k, kinachofanyika ni aidha – kuongeza kodi na kupunguza matumizi wakati kuna mfumuko wa bei na kupunguza kodi na kuongeza matumizi kama kuna hali kinyume yaani deflation. Cha kushanganza Waziri Mkullo hajatoa kauli yoyote ya maana zaidi ya kusema uchumi upo imara! Uchumi utakuwaje imara wakati hata bajeti yake ya mwaka 2011-2012 itashindikana kutekelezeka kwa kiasi kikubwa kwasababu hata wao they did not anticipate inflation to be this high today? Ni kawaida kwa BOT kukosa inflation targets but not such a wide margin. Nchi za wenzetu, Central Banks zikikosea with predictions hata kwa asilimia moja, wanawekwa kiti moto kujieleza. Hapa hakuna anaejali. Kilichotokea na Mkullo bajeti ya mwaka jana ni uzembe kwani costing ya items ndani ya bajeti yake hazikuzingatia kwa umakini mfumuko wa bei mbeleni. Miradi mingi ya Maendeleo ndani ya bajeti ya 2011- 2012; ahadi nyingi za CCM kwenye uchaguzi wa rais October 2010 na ahadi za magufuli Igunga hazitatekelezeka. Kama nilivyosema hapo awali itamlazimu Waziri Mkullo kuja na a mini – budjet ndani ya miezi mitatu ili kufanikisha utekelezaji wa bajeti yake ya sasa. Cha kustaajabu ni kwamba bado anasema uchumi upo imara – Mkullo anamdanganya Rais na anadanganya wafanyabiashara na wananchi kwani Uchumi Wake Sio Uchumi Imara bali ni Uchumi Uchwara.

    Rais Kikwete amekuwa kimya kuzungumzia tatizo linalotukabili kwa sababu Mkullo na Ndullu hawajamsaidia ipasavyo. Hivi kwa mfano, Rais leo anapata fursa ya kuhutubia wananchi viwanja vya mwembe yanga, au vya bakhrea, au vya packers kawe au hata uwanja mpya wa taifa, nia yake ikiwa kuwaeleza wananchi ukweli juu ya kinachoendelea katika uchumi. Sio siri kwamba ikitokea hivyo, basi ataenda kwa kujiamini sana kwa sababu ya matamshi na ushauri uliotolewa na wasaidizi wake aliowaamini BOT wakiongozwa na Professor Ndullu ambao wameamua kuchukua hatua nilizozitaja hapo awali kwamba tatizo linalolikabili taifa hivi sasa ni watanzania kuwa na pesa nyingi sana mifukoni kuliko bidhaa masokoni na madukani. Kwahivyo, BOT imeamua kuja na hatua za kupunguza fedha toka kwenye mzunguko wa uchumi. Ni haki yake na sahihi kabisa then kwa Rais Kikwete kupanda jukwaani kwa kujiamini kabisa na kutamka yafuatayo:

    “Ndugu zangu watanzania, nipo mbele yenu kwa kazi moja tu – kuwapa pole kwa jinsi gani maisha yenu yanavyozidi kuwa magumu siku hadi siku kwani vitu kwa sasa, hususan chakula havishikiki kutokana na mfumuko wa bei. Ningependa kuwaelezeni kwamba kiini cha tatizo ni ukweli usiofichika kwamba MIFUKONI MWENU MNA PESA NYINGI SANA KULIKO IDADI YA BIDHAA MADUKANI NA MASOKONI KWAHIVYO BENKI KUU IMESHACHUKUA HATUA MADHUBUTI ZA KUPUNGUZA PESA TOKA MIFUKONI MWENU NA HII ITASAIDIA BEI YA BIDHAA KUSHUKA.”

    Iwapo Rais Kikwete atadiriki kusema haya, haitachukua muda kabla amani kuanza kuvunjika kwani wananchi wengi wataanza kujiuliza, fedha zipi hizo? Na wengi wataanza kuchanganya mambo na kujiuliza, au ni yale mabilioni ya Kikwete?? Kwa kweli Rais Kikwete wala hatopata muda wa kuendelea na hotuba yake kwani wananchi wengi wataondoka kwa hasira na wengine kuzomea kwa nguvu zao zote kwani hiyo itakuwa kama kuwatukana kwani wengi wao miaka nenda miaka rudi sana sana hela za mifukoni mwao ni za kutosha kula mlo mmoja tu kwa siku. Leo hii wasaidizi wa rais wanamwambia Rais kwamba tatizo ni wananchi wana pesa nyingi kupita kiasi mifukoni kwahivyo BOT imechukua hatua za kuzipunguza kwenye mzunguko wao wa maisha? Nina amini kabisa hii ndio sababu kubwa kwanini Rais amekaa kimya hadi leo. Ni haki yake lakini pia ni wajibu wake aidha kuwawajibisha Mkullo na Ndullu au kuwapa onyo kwani in the eyes of many, uchumi wao ni uchwara. Nina uhakika iwapo Mkullo atajali kusoma makala hii humu Jamiiforums na kuona naita uchumi wake uchwara na kuhoji kwanini Mchambuzi anasema hayo, jibu ni kwamba nje ya hayo niliyoeleza, naita uchumi wake uchwara kwa sababu I dare him aende kwenye jimbo lake la Kilosa na kuwaambia wapiga kura wake kwamba serikali kupitia BOT imegundua nyinyi wananchi mna pesa nyingi sana mifukoni Kwahiyo tumeamua ongeza bank rate na cash reserve requirements ili kupuguza wingi wa pesa mifukoni mwenu; pia, I dare him amshauri Rais akaeleze hayo kwenye mkutano wa hadhara. Iwapo Mkullo atasita kufanya hivyo, then ataelewa kwa dhati kabisa moyoni kwake kwanini uchumi wake nauita uchumi Uchwara – anaposema uchumi upo imara bila ya kujali kama the growth ni pro – poor au pro – rich, huo ni uchumi Uchwara!.
    Ok, tuseme basi kwamba hatua ya BOT basi itasaidia tatua tatizo la mfumuko wa bei – kwani wapo watu watakaouliza mbona miaka ya nyuma hali haikuwa hivi? Jibu ni kwasababu economic indicators in Tanzania never reflect hali ya ukweli katika uchumi wetu, uchumi ukikua tunajipongeza, ukizama tunatafuta visingizo – yote ni kwa sababu Tanzania haijitegemei. Ndio maana Mwalimu aliona mbali na kuja na sera ya self – reliance ili kuepuka huu uchwara. Nitayaeleza haya vizuri zaidi kwa takwimu mwisho wa makala hii.

    Turudi kwenye mada juu ya hatua ya BOT, je itasaidia? Kabla ya kutafuta jibu, ni muhmu tujiulize, Je ni watanzania wangapi wanamiliki akaunti kwenye mabenki ambao hatua ya BOT kupandisha bank rate na pia cash reserve requirement imewalenga? Jibu ni kwamba sio zaidi ya asilimia 12% ya watanzania milioni 45 wanamiliki akaunti za benki. Hawa ni watanzania wasiozidi milioni tano na nusu kati ya jumla ya milioni 45. Katika nchi yetu, kuna jumla ya taasisi za kifedha 41 na kati ya hizi, 28 ni commercial banks na zilizobakia ni taasisi nyingine ndogo ndogo. Katika nchi ndogo kama Tanzaniai, uwepo wa benki 41 inatakiwa ilete ushindani mkubwa sana baina ya mabenki, lakini hali ipo kinyume. Kwanini sekta ya mawasiliano ya simu za viganjani ina makampuni makubwa manne tu lakini ushindani ni mkubwa sana na unawapatia watanzania mijini na mijini faida kubwa mno? Kwa mfano, suala la mfumuko wa bei halijagusa kabisa sekta ya mawasiliano (simu na internet), in actual sense, bei huko zimepungua sana in the past 5 years. Ukweli ni kwamba hizi benki za bishara tofauti na miaka ya nyuma hazina faida kwa mtanzania wa kawaida. Vinginevyo wingi wa hizi benki ilitakiwa ipelekee riba ya mikopo na masharti ya mikopo kuwa chinui sana lakini kutokana na uchumi uchwara uliopo, hili halitokei. Riba ya mkopo hivi sasa sio chini ya asilimia 16 kama una bahati, vinginevyo kuna benki zinatoza hadi asilimia 25. Fine, inawezekana kuna sababu kwanini riba za mikopo zipo juu; basi angalau hata pawe na faida kwa uwepo wa riba za kuvutia on savings deports iwapo kweli benki hizi zipo kwa ajili ya watanzania na kama kweli watanzania hawa matter katika maamuzi ya uchumi wao; vinginevyo kwa hali kama yangu ambapo sina hata ajira rasmi, kuwa na akaunti benki ni kujiumiza kuliko kupata faida.
    Wanaofaidika na commercial banks ni wawekezaji wakubwa tu kwenye sekta za madini, mawasiliano n.k; na pi watanzania wachache sana wenye biashara halali kama Mzee Mengi, Bakhera na wengineo; pia mafisadi. Mbali ya hawa, benki kubwa hapa nchini zipo kwa ajili ya kazi mbili tu: kununua treasury bonds (mfano Citibank) na kununua dhahabu (mfano FBME). Kama tunavyofahamu, CITIBANK ni among the largest banks in the World, yet hapa Tanzania wana tawi moja tu na lipo katikati ya jiji la Dar-es-salaam, nini cha zaidi wanachofanya zaidi ya kununua treasury bonds na kupokea wateja wakubwa tu wa migodi ya dhahabu, vodacom n.k? Commercial Banks invest in treasury bills than any othe sector Tanzania; na sio ziku nyingi BOT reduced rates from 12% to 5% in order to reduce competition with private borrowing.
    Kwa mwananchi wa kawaida, anashukuru mungu kwamba angalau shughuli zake za kibenki zimepata mkombozi - M-PESA, kwani hana uwezo mkubwa wa kuwa akiba, anachohitaji ni huduma ya kibenki kumwezesha kutuma na/ama kupokea fedha; vinginevyo hata kama anazo pesa kidogo za zaida, kwanini awekeze akiba na kuachia faida yake ya mwaka (just 3% interest rate of savings deposit) ilimwe na unanticipated inflation? Sio bora aziweke chini ya godoro ili apate japo kuzitumia kwa urahisi iwapo jambo la maana au la dharura litajitokeza?
    Taarifa rasmi nilizonazo ni kwamba mzunguko wa M-PESA katika saa 24 hapa Tanzania ni shilingi billion 20, na hii ni sawa na mzunguko wa fedha za benki zote Tanzania. Hii inaonyesha jinsi gani wananchi aidha hawana imani au hawna uwezo wa kutumia benki za biashara kwani mafanikio ya M-PESA ni indication kubwa kwamba the need for banking services kwa wananchi ipo kubwa sana tena. Je, given the 20 billion shillings figure ya M-PESA, Ndullu analijua hili anapokuja na mkakati wa kupunguza mzunguko wa fedha kwenye uchumi via increasing bank rate and cash reserve requirements?

    Hadi sasa nadhani tumeshaona kwamba kuna matatizo makubwa mawili katika uchumi wetu uchwara – moja, tunakumbwa Na unanticipated inflation, Na pili, kuna sehemu kubwa ya uchumi wa Tanzania ambao haupo moja kwa moja kwenye mabenki kwahivyo hatua za BOT za hivi karibuni ni kama kupiga risasi gunia la mchelle ukitegemea mchele ule kuvunjika.
    Swali linalofuatia: Je ni asilimia ngapi ya watanzania wanadhurika moja kwa moja na mfumuko wa bei? Na je hatua za BOT kupunguza mzunguko wa fedha au wingi wa fedha mifukoni mwa watanzania utafanikiwa vipi wakati Tanzania imegawanyika katika chumi kuu mbili – monetized economy ambayo haizidi asilimia 30 ya watanzania na subsistence economy ambayo ni sio chini ya asilimia 70 ya watanzania?

    Majibu ya maswali haya ni magumu lakini naamini tutasaidiana. Nachoweza sana sana ni ku share mawazo yangu. Ebu tuangalie masuala yafuatayo:
    Jadwali 1: Inflation and GDP Growth Rate
    [TABLE]
    [TR]
    [TD]Year
    [/TD]
    [TD]Rate of inflation (%)
    [/TD]
    [TD]GDP Growth (%)
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]September 2006
    [/TD]
    [TD]7.3%
    [/TD]
    [TD]6.7%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]September 2007
    [/TD]
    [TD]7.0%
    [/TD]
    [TD]7.1%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]September 2008
    [/TD]
    [TD]10.3%
    [/TD]
    [TD]7.4%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]September 2009
    [/TD]
    [TD]12.1%
    [/TD]
    [TD]6.0%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]September 2010
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.5%
    [/TD]
    [TD]7.0%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]September 2011
    [/TD]
    [TD]16.8%
    [/TD]
    [TD]6.7%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    Jedwali hili linaonyesha tabia ya mfumuko wa bei ndani ya miaka sita iliyopita. Utagundua kwa haraka kwamba the inflation behavior in the past 6 years has been very erratic. Pia nimeweka takwimu za GDP growth ambapo tunaona jinsi gani uchumi wetu umekuwa kwa kasi nzuri – kwani any growth of 6.5% and above ni sufficient to eliminate poverty by half within 10 years (but assuming that the growth is pro – poor, sio growth inayovutwa na extraction ya madini by Barrick and others). Tangia mwaka 2000 uchumi wetu umekuwa kwa wastani wa zaidi ya asilimia 6 kwa mwaka. Swali la kujiuliza, Mkullo anaposema uchumi wetu upo imara katika nyakati hizi, je anazingatia takwimu zote hapo juu kwa pamoja (ukiondoa zile za levels of unemployment ambazo ni za kutisha?) Nini maana haswa ya kauli yake uchumi wetu upo imara? Imara for who? Je, ni imani yake kwamba mfumuko wa bei ni mbolea nzuri katika uchumi wa nchi? Kwani dhana hii hata nchi tajiri walishaitupilia mbali miaka mingi sana iliyopita. Sina uhakika lakini tafsiri yangu ni kwamba Mkullo suggests “inflation buys growth” na kama nipo sahihi, ukweli uliopo ni kwamba inflation can temporarily fool an economy into growing faster than it otherwise would, but afterwards, the economy starts to pay a penalty of long term losses that would swamp the short term temporary gains. Na hilo ndilo tunaloanza kushuhudia sana - wanasiasa walikuwa na raha sana walipokuwa wanauza sura kwenye luninga kuwaambia wananchi kwamba mafanikio ya CCM ni pamoja na kukua kwa uchumi kwa kasi sana wakati kumbe ukweli wa mambo ni kwamba such growth was not pro – poor growth bali muendelezo wa uchumi uchwara.

    Ebu sasa tuangalie kwa undani juu ya huu mfumuko wa bei. Tuangalie ni vitu gani hasa vinavyopelekea mfumuko kushika kasi namna hii. Hii itatusaidia kuamua kama uchumi wa Ndullu na Mkullo ni uchwara au la. Katika utafiti wangu, nimekutana na takwimu kutoka idara ya takwimu ya taifa (NBS) na kugundua yafuatayo:
    Jedwali 2: Items with the highest percentage change of inflation during the last 12 months.

    [TABLE]
    [TR]
    [TD]Item(s)
    [/TD]
    [TD]12 month change (2010-2011)
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1.Food and non – alcoholic
    [/TD]
    [TD]22.5%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]2.Housing, water, electricity and other fuel
    [/TD]
    [TD]21.7%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]3.Furnishing, housing equipment and routine maintenance of the house
    [/TD]
    [TD]14.2%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]4.Restaurant and Hotels
    [/TD]
    [TD]11.5%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]5.Transport
    [/TD]
    [TD]10.8%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

    Takwimu za jedwali 2 zinatuonyesha vitu au bidhaa, au huduma tano zilizokumbwa na mfumuko mkubwa wa bei. Nimechukua tano bora tu na kuacha nyinginezo. Tunagundua haraka kwamba mfumuko wa bei wa sasa unaongozwa na bidhaa za vyakula, kodi ya nyumba, maji, umeme, mafuta, huduma za hoteli, guesti, migahawa na usafiri. Watanzania wanaotumia hivi bidhaa katika maisha yao ya kila siku ndio wanaopata maumivu makali sana kutokana na mfumuko wa bei unaondelea. Kwahivyo, mfumuko wa bei hivi kufikia hali ya kutisha hivi sasa unavutwa na mfumuko katika bei ya vitu hivi vitano. Sasa ebu tuangalie data nyingine of interest.

    Jedwali 3: Items with the lowest percentage change of inflation during the last 12 months.

    [TABLE]
    [TR]
    [TD]Item(s)
    [/TD]
    [TD]
    1. month change
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1.Communication (mobile phones & internet services)
    [/TD]
    [TD]-1.8%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]2. Recreation and Culture
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.1%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]3.Health
    [/TD]
    [TD]2.3%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]4.Alcoholic and Beverages
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.7%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]5. Education
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.8%
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

    Jedwali 3 ni orodha ya vitu vitano ambavyo vime experience the least percentage change on inflation in the last 12 months. Kwa maana rahisi, watumiaji wa bidhaa na huduma hizi hawapati maumivu makali katika hali ya sasa ya mfumuko mkubwa wa bei. Kama tunavyoona, bei katika sekta ya mawasiliano kama nilivyosema hapo awali actually imeshuka.

    At this stage ni matumaini yangu kwamba tunazidi kujizatiti katika nafasi nzuri zaidi ya kubaini iwapo uchumi wa Mkullo na Ndullu ni uchwara au la. Swali la kujiuliza before departure ni je: Katika watanzania takriban milioni 45, ni wangapi ambao wana hangaika kutokana na tatizo la mfumuko wa bei ya chakula, usafiri, usafi na maintenance ya makazi, hoteli, migahawa na gesti na usafiri?
    Tukumbuke kwamba inflation literally means – everything else in the economy gains value except money! Na kutokana na duality of our economy, BOT should come with atleast two types of interventions – one for the monetized sector and the other for the subsistence sector; sio sahihi for BOT kuja na a “one size fits all solution’ kwani itatupelekea into an illusion” na kuchochea uchumi uchwara. Hoja yangu ya msingi hapa ni kwamba, over 70% ya watanzania wapo vijijini, je wanasaidiwaje katika shida zao za kila siku tokea Tanzania ipate uhuru? Ingawa kuna suala la urban – rural linkages, lakini ukweli unabakia wazi kwamba wengi ya hawa hawaishi katika monetized economy na badala yake wapo katika subsistence economy (mfano wanajilimia mbaazi na mlenda nyuma ya nyumba zao za udongo; wanatwanga mahidi kwa kinu; wanachota maji mtoni au ziwani n.k, hawahitaji fedha mkononi kila saa ili kupata mlo au most of the things katika jedwali letu hapo juu; Tukumbuke kwamba ni hawa watanzania zaidi ya milioni 30 ambao wameipelekea serikali ya Uingereza hivi karibuni kuamua kukata mchango wake katika bajeti ya Mkullo kwa kutoridhishwa na jinsi gani serikali inalishughulikia suala la la kutokomeza umaskini – sijatunga maneno haya bali ndivyo yalivyosemwa na serikali ya uingereza. Je, maskini hawa wategemee wapate nafuu kutokana na BOT’s intervention on Money Supply? Huu ndio uchumi wa Mkullo na Ndullu ambao unasifika kupaa kumbe ni uchwara. Mikakati ya Maendeleo ya uchumi wetu chini ya BOT na Wizara ya Fedha sio – pro poor na ndio maana hata ukuaji wake hauwezi kuwa pro – poor i.e pro poor growth. Vinginevyo basi given such an impressive economic growth since 2000, Britain and other rich countries walitakiwa wamwage fedha nyingi sana kwa serikali yetu. Atokee mwananchi mmoja amuulize mbunge wake au waziri wa fedha, inakuwaje mnasema uchumi unapaa halafu tunasoma kwenye magazeti Uingereza imeamua kupunguza fedha kutukwamua wananchi kutoka katika lindi la umaskini, huo uchumi tangia mwaka 2000 kumbe unakuwa kwa ajili ya nani? Nina hakika Mbunge au waziri huyo atajiuma uma tu kwa sababu Tanzania ina uchumi Uchwara. UNDP majuzi imetoa ripoti ya Maendeleo na Tanzania ipo katika bottom 30 of the poorest countries in the World, a position ambayo in the past 15 years haven’t improved much. This ia s country with one of the largest deposits of gold, Ruby, sole in Tanzanite, Mbuga za wanyama, all major sources of energy (gas, wind, coal, hydro in abundance) etc etc; the only country in Africa surrounded by maji mengi (Maziwa matatu makuu yapo Tanzania) na tuna ukanda mrefu sana wa Bahari ya Indi, yet Uchumi Wetu Ni Uchwara. Kwa hali hii, kwa kweli hatustahili kuendelea kupewa misaada na wahisani.

    Ebu tumwangalie kwa ukaribu zaidi mwananchi wa kijijini in the context of the current inflation crisis kwa kuangalia majedwali hayo hapo juu (hasa hasa jedwali namba 2). Je madhara ya moja kwa moja ya inflation katika maisha yake ya kila siku ni yepi?
    • Food and non – alcoholic bevarages
    Sote tunakubaliana kwamba bei ya chakula imepanda sana - sembe, maharagwe, nyama havishikiki, lakini ukweli unabakia kwamba hili ni tatizo zaidi kwa watu wa mijini ambao wana rely on monetized economy on a daily basis – sababu kubwa ya bei kwao kupanda ni gharama za usafirishaji toka vijijini na market misformation kwamba wapi kuna ziada na wapi kuna uhaba. Food inflation kwa watu wa vijijini haipo kwasababu kubwa mbili, kwanza, wao ndio wazalishaji Kwahiyo huwa wana mazao ya akiba kwa ajili ya mahitaji yao; kuna mengine huwa yanaozea huko kwa kukosa soko na walaji kila mwaka (mfano mahindi Rukwa) wakati mijini wanalalamika njaa na mfumuko mkuwa wa bei; Sababu ya pili kwanini food inflation haiwagusi wa vijijini ni kwamba – wao huwa hawanunui vyakula masokoni bali wanachuma toka katika mashamba na bustani zao (a typical subsistence livelihood) – serikali imewageuza kuishi maisha kama ya chimpmunks/squirrels katika nchi zinazopata misimu ya theluji whereby hulazimika kuhifadhi nuts kwa wingi during winter ili wasiishiwe na chakula.
    • Housing, water, electricity, fuel
    According to the latest household budget survey, watanzania wengi bado wapo vijijini – zaidi ya asilimia 70. Na kati ya hawa, 94% wanaishi katika nyumba zao binafsi tena za hali duni kupindukia; kwa mijini, asilimia 60 ya watanzania wanaishi katika nyumba zao binafsi, na asilimia 40 katika nyumba za kupanga. Takwimu hizi zinaonyesha bayana kwamba pressure ya kodi ya nyumba on inflation ni kwa watanzania wachache sana, na karibia wote wapo mijini;

    Water - majority ya watanzania hawagharamii maji kwani wengi wao wanachota maji toka kwenye mito au maziwa. Only 14% percent of people in rural areas wanapata maji safi ya Visima;

    Suala la umeme – Kupanda kwa bei ya Luku kunawaumiza zaidi wananchi wanaoishi mijini na sio wote wenye umeme majumbani; maumivu kwao ni makali zaidi kutokana na kupanda kwa gharama ya bidhaa zinazozalishwa viwandani kwa kutumia umeme wa mgao. Kwa majority ya watanzania ambao wapo vijijini suala la umeme haliwagusi sana, wameshazoea kuishi maisha ya kutotegemea umeme. Isitoshe, it is only 10% of households in Tanzania wana umeme; and other stats show us about 14 ya watanzania wanatumia umeme; kuna wanasiasa wanakujaga na hoja kwamba watanzania waandamane kupinga mgao wa umeme, hili jambo huwa haliniingii akilini kwani kuna watanzania ambao hawajui umeme ni kitu gani toka uhuru, na kama hawa wamevumulia kwa miaka 50 kukaa na vibatari, watakuungaje mkono wewe unaelia mgao? Nyakati za mgao maeneo ya mwananyamala, umeme ukikatika usiku unasikia wananchi waishio nyumba zisizo na umeme wanapiga kelele “MOJA – MOJA” kwa maana ya kwamba mlikuwa mnafaidi umeme sasa tupo suluhu. Huu ndio uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu.

    Fuel inflation– hili linawaathiri zaidi watu wa mijini ambao wanategemea usafiri mijini au usafiri wa mazao toka vijijini; ni watanzania wachache wa vijijini ambao wanategemea bidhaa toka mijini mara kwa mara kuliko the other way round; sana sana gharama kubwa ya mwanakijiji katika fuel ni mafuta ya taa kwa ajili ya taa kwani 92% ya watanzania vijijini wanategemea taa za mafuta ya taa;

    Inflation on furnishing, housing equipment, house maintenance – suala la dawa za kusafisha vyoo, dawa za kupulizia mbu, fanicha lipo zaidi mijini na hata huko huku mijini ni wachache sana ambao kupanda kwa bei ya bidhaa hizi kunawaathiri kwani kutokana na hali ngumu ya maisha, kwao usafi ni maji pekee, sio lazima dawa za kuua vijidudu chooni kwani hazishikiki kwa bei; isitoshe vyoo vingi mijini bado ni vya shimo; huko vijijini suala hili ndio halipo kabisa kwani karibia vyote ni vya shimo na fanicha ni za kuunga unga;

    Inflation on restaurants and hotels services– hili lipo zaidi mijini kwahivyo linawagusa minority of the 45 million total Tanzanians.

    Transport – Hili ni suala la mijini zaidi kwani vijijini mahitaji ya usafiri sio ya mara kwa mara. Maeneo mengi vijijini watu huwa wanaenda kwa baiskeli au miguu, kwa mfano according to the recent household budget survey, sehemu zilizo mbali vijijini ambazo pengine huulazimisha mahitaji ya usafiri ni zifuatazo:
    Benki - about 38 kilometers.
    Posta – about 29 kilometers.
    Polisi – about 19 kilometers.
    Primary Court – about 19 kilometers.

    Ukitizama maeneo yote haya utagundua kwamba nusu yake hayahitaji sana usafiri – kwa mfano shughuli za posta (kusafirisha barua na vifurushi) kwa sasa zinafanywa na mabasi yaendayo mikoani; na shughuli za kibenki vijijini ni kama hazijawahi pelekwa vijijini tangia uhuru, mfano, mabenki ya biashara yapo katika mikoa mikuu sita tu – Dar, Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Mbeya, Mwanza na Dodoma; mikoa mingine huduma za benki ni za kudonoa donoa na ni matawi machache sana kwenye maeneo wilayani; ndio maana huduma kama ya M-PESA imechukuliwa kama mkombozi wa huduma za ki – benki vijijini;
    Maeneo mengine vijijini hayahitaji usafiri kwa mfano kwenda kazini (shambani ambapo majority ya wanavijiji ajira yao rasmi bado ni kilimo), kwenda dukani, gengeni, kanisani, msikitini, kusaga au kukoboa nafaka, huduma zote hizi zipo within walking distance kwahivyo inflation on transport services haina madhara makubwa kwa wananchi wengi vijijini; hospitali hazipo, zahanati hazina madawa, ni kawaida watanzania wengi vijijini kutumia tiba za kienyeji kutokana na uhaba wa dawa/fedha, na pia ni kawaida kwa dada na mama zetu kujifungulia majumbani.

    Je, tumeilewa jinsi gani Uchumi wa Mkullo na Ndullu ni Uchwara?
    Bila shaka wengi mpaka sasa wanakubaliana nami kwamba kwa wananchi wa vijijini (subsistence sector), kinachofanywa na serikali/benki kuu kama njia ya kuwakwamua kwa njia ya ‘one size fits all’ – yani kutokuwa na ubaguzi wa policy intervention ya inflation in the monetized and subsistence sector ni uchumi uchwara. Given uelewa huu, hatua za hivi karibuni za BOT zinasaidiaje? Na je, serikali inachangiaje kutatua au kuongeza tatizo la mfumuko wa bei?
    Tukumbuke ni BOT na Hazina pekee wenye mamlaka za kushughulikia tatizo la mfumuko wa bei. Muhimu zaidi ni kwamba BOT haitakiwi kuingiliwa na chombo chochote kile katika maamuzi yake i.e. maamuzi yake hayataikiwi kuingiliwa na siasa. Nchi za wenzetu ukisikia Greenspan au Gavana wa bank of England anataka kutoa tamko juu ya mwenendo wa uchumi, nchi inakaa mkao wa ‘cliff hanger’ sababu maamuzi au kauli zao kwanza ni political independent na pili zinatokana na uhalisia wa hali ya uchumi wao, sio za kubabaisha kama zetu Tanzania ambazo zimejaa uchwara!

    Tuanze kwa kuangalia Jinsi Gani serikali (hazina kwa Mkullo) kunachangia uwepo wa mfumuko wa bei halafu tutamalizia kwa kuangalia upande wa benki kuu ya Tanzania - BOT.
    Nia yangu hapa kwa kifupi ni kuonyesha ni jinsi gani wizara ya fedha kupitia nyenzo yake ya fiscal policy imeongezea mafuta ya petroli katika mafuta ya mfumuko wa bei; pengine ndio maana mpaka leo Mkullo hajatoa kauli yoyote zaidi ya kusema kwamba uchumi upo imara; angalau mafuru wa NBC yeye alieleza kwamba tatizo ni pesa nyingi (75%) zipo mikononi mwa watu na only (25%) zipo kwenye benki na kwamba matumizi ya plastic cards yatasaidia kupunguza hili tatizo; tukaona pia jinsi gani vijana wa Mafuru walienda Ikulu kwa Rais na kupiga nae picha wakimkabidhi Mheshimiwa rais kadi yake mpya ya ATM ya NBC iwe kama mfano kwa watanzania. This is fine, lakini haichi maswali:
    • Je, Mafuru anafahamu kwamba asilimia ya watanzania milioni 45 wenye akaunti benki haivuki 15 i.e. 15%?
    • Je anafahamu ni fedha kiasi gani zipo katika mfumo au uchumi usio rasmi?
    • Je anajua kwamba kuna ATMs 2.6 tu katika kila watanzania 100,000? Kwa takwimu hizi za WorldBank, ina maana kwamba kuna jumla ya ATM zisizozidi 1,200 Tanzania. The 75/25 ratio inaingiaje hapa?
    • Je, benki yake ya NBC ikiwa kama mfano inafanya nini kuvutia wananchi wa kawaida kuwekeza hela huko? Kwani kwa nchi zilizoendelea, hata watu wa kipato cha chini wanapata incentive ya kuwa na a bank account. Je, riba ya NBC kwa mfano kwenye savings za watu ni kiasi gani? Ukweli ni kwamba haizidi asilimia 3. Je hii inavutia mtanzania kuweka akiba? Ni ukweli usio bayana kwamba katika benki kama NBC, interest rate spread (lending rate – deposit rate) ni kubwa sana; sidhani kama at NBC, lending rate ni chini ya asilimia 17, na deposit rate ni si zaidi ya asilimia 3; kwahivyo interest spread ya NBC haitakuwa chini ya 15%!!!
    Haya, tuweke pembeni suala la lending and deposit rate, tusema basi watanzania wana hamasa ya kutumia hizo plastic cards thereby kupunguza monetary inflation, ukweli unabaki kwamba majority of them bado watakuwa hawana uwezo wa kwenda kutumia ATM kwani wanatashia kulipishwa gharama na benki husika kupata huduma ya ATM kwani haiji bure – hata kama suala ni kutoa pesa zao mwenyewe; kwa principle ya opportunity cost, wengi wao wataonelea ni bora watembee kwenye jua na kwenda katika tawi la benki lililo karibu badala ya kutumia ATM ili kuokoa ATM charges. Ni mara mia mwananchi atumie hela hiyo kwa ajili ya nauli kwenda benki au mlo kwa mama ntilie; It is prudent for Mafuru kukaa na wenzake kwanza na kuangalia masuala kama haya kabla ya kutoa maoni yao juu ya tatizo la inflation; isitoshe changamoto kubwa ya kaka zangu Mafuru wa NBC, Kaduma wa CBA na wengineo ni kwamba M-PESA amegeuka kuwa mshindani wenu mkubwa sana kwenye mobile banking. Jumla ya daily transactions katika mfumo wa kifedha Tanzania ni about 40 billion shillings; and guess what, 50% ya mzunguko upo M-PESA, je mnalifahamu hili? Na mnajua maana yake to your business ni nini? Kaka zangu Mafuru, Kaduma na wengineo, huo ni ushindani unaohitaji mkakati wa hali ya juu wa innovation kuukabili, vinginevyo mtaishia kuendelea kutolea kauli Watanzania mkidhani ni relevant kwa watanzania wote kumbe just a handful!

    Turudi kwenye mada juu ya jinsi gani serikali/hazina ni responsible na tatizo la inflation moja kwa moja kutokana na sera zake mbovu. Ninachomaanisha hapa ni kwamba Budget Deficit ndio petroli katika mfumuko wa bei. Kwa miaka mingi sana sasa, serikali imekuwa inatumia fedha kuliko mapato yake; kwa mfano, as a percentage of GDP, matumizi ya serikali yamekuwa yanaongezeka kwa kasi sana mfano mwaka 2000 ilikuwa 11% of GDP, sasahivi ni 20% of the GDP. Matumizi ya serikali kuwa makubwa maana yake ni kwamba ina mwaga fedha kwenye umma; na petrol inazidi kuwa nyingi pale ambapo tunaendeleza utamaduni wetu wa kupeleka majority of fedha za bajeti kwenye matumizi ya kawaida/recurrent expenditure; Tukumbuke kwamba bajeti imegawanyika sehemu kuu mbili, matumizi ya Maendeleo na matumizi ya kawaida. For the past 5 years, over 60% of our budget imekuwa inaenda katika recurrent expenditure/matumizi ya kawaida – na hizi ni posho na mishahara ya watumishi wa serikali; na 40% or less ndio zinakwenda kwenye miradi ya Maendeleo; kwa mfano kupata picha halisi, kwa maneno yake mwenyewe Mkullo wakati anawasilisha bajeti ya 2011-2012, hadi kufikia march 2011, malipo kwa watumishi wa serikali kama posho na mishara kutoka katika lundo la fedha za bajeti ya juni 2010 yalishafikia zaidi ya shilling trilioni 1.8; ikiwa na maana kwamba mapesa haya yanamwagwa moja kwa moja kwenye umma. Hii imechangia sana kuleta mfumuko wa bei, na kinachoendelea sasa ni BOT majuzi to raise bank rate and cash reserve requirements inakuwa kama ni kulamba matapishi ya serikali yake yenyewe kwani kazi yake sasa ni kupunguza mzunguko wa pesa - mapesa yanayomwagwa na serikali kila mwaka kwenye umma na bila mpangilio unaoeleweka; Katika bajeti ya mwaka 2011 – 2012, jumla ya matumzi ya serikali yalikuwa shilling trillion 13.5 na kati ya hizi, trilioni 8.6 zilienda kwenye posho na mishahara na zilizobaki about 4 trillion zilienda kwenye matumizi ya Maendeleo;

    Swali: Serikali inapata wai jeuri kubwa hivi ya pesa?
    Sio siri kwamba serikali inakabiliwa na uhaba wa fedha. Kabwe Zitto, one of the very few leaders in this country that I admire - hivi karibuni alitufichulia siri jinsi gani hata wabunge wamekuwa hawalipwi mishahara kutokana na serikali kukumbwa na uhaba wa fedha. Pia tunashuhudia misukosuko ya fedha ulaya na marekani ambayo inapelekea nchi maskini kama Tanzania kutopata misaada ya fedha za kutosha kuchangia katika bajeti zetu. Vile vile tumeona jinsi gani uingereza imepunguza mabilioni ya fedha zake za msaada kwenye fungu letu la bajeti kutokana na kutoridhishwa na ufanisi wetu kutokomeza umaskini; tukumbuke, uamuzi huu ulikuwa ni kabla ya ule ya ‘ushoga’ na hauingiliani. – Kutonana na such developments, njia pekee kwa serikali yetu kupata fedha to finance its deficit zinabakia chache sana, kwa mfano (sitataja zote):to print money and to borrow from commercial banks kwani kwa hali ya sasa, kuwepo au kutowepo na inflation, serikali ilishajipanga na matumizi kwahiyo lazima ifanye juu chini kumwaga fedha zaidi kwenyeumma na kuiachia BOT waziokote kwa umakini tuliokwisha uona awali. Kama sio uchumi uchwara huu wa Mkullo na Ndullu, basi ni nini? Sina taarifa lakini kuna uwezekano mkubwa serikali kupitia BOT wamelazimika kuchapisha noti mpya ili kukabiliana na uhaba wa fedha uliopo na kama hili limefanyika, tuna hatari kubwa mbeleni. Natumai Mheshimiwa Zitto kama waziri kivuli wa fedha atatueleza iwapo hili limetokea. Mungu ampe nguvu ili arudi upesi sana kututumikia wananchi. Vingnevyo sio jambo la ajabu serikali kuwa na sehemu ya matumizi yake kutoka kwenye newly printed money lakini hili linatakiwa lifanywe kwa uangalifu mkubwa sana, otherwise given uchumi wetu uchwara, hili haliwezi fanyika bila kuzidi kuiweka nchi katika hali mbaya zaidi kiuchumi. Vinginevyo, serikali kuwa na sehemu ya its revenue from printed money ni sahihi as long as the amount stays under 5% out of the total revenue for that financial period. The other 95% should come from taxes etc.

    Kuna maswali ambalo huwa najiuliza na ningeomba wadau tusaidiane kuyajibu.
    Kwanza, hivi taasisi za serikali kama TPDC, EWURA, TCRA n.k, serikali ikichota fedha huko zinaenda katika hesabu gani za bajeti na equation ipi ya money circulation?
    Pili, katika nyakati hizi ambazo uchumi unatakiwa uwe contracted and not expanded – meaning matumizi ya serikali yawe madogo na mzunguko wa fedha uwe mdogo (if we follow the principles of handling monetary inflation that’s been devised by BOT sasahivi), tunaposikia taasisi kama TCRA, NHC, NSSF wanakuja na miradi ya mabilioni ya dollar ambayo wanayamwaga kwenye umma, mambo haya yana uhusiano gani na monetary and fiscal policy wakati wa contraction period? Tumeshuhudia jinsi gani haya yamekuwa yakifanyika. Je, since hizi ni taasisi za serikali, BOT na serikali inachukuaga hatua gani kudhibiti tabia hii ili kuhakikisha kwamba iwapo tupo kwenye contraction period basi they all abide? Je kuna coordination na monitoring ya taasisi hizi hasa NSSF ambao wana pesa kuliko mabenki mengi nchini to stay within the current monetary and fiscal frameworks? Do these institutions decide to go loose na mabilioni yao based on economic conditions of the time au maamuzi yao hayaingiliwi na BOT? Kukosa kwangu kwa majibu haya ni sehemu ya sasabu nyingi sana zinazopelekea mimi kuita uchumi wa Ndullu na Mkullo Uchwara.

    Monetary Developments - BOT activities
    Sasa tuhamie/tumalizie kwa kuangalia upande wa BOT. Mbali na maswali yangu hapo juu om BOT na taasisi kama NSSF, hadi sasa tumeshaona angalau kwa juu juu ni jinsi gani interventions za BOT zinagusa a very small portion of the economy, na kuacha the rest of the economy (subsistence sector) ikitapapa katika mazingira ya uchumi uchwara. Tumeona pia kuwa hatua iliyochukuliwa na BOT hivi majuzi ya kuongeza bank rate na cash reserve requirement pamoja na ile ya kupunguza maumivu ya shilingi dhidi ya dollar kwa ujumla yake yanalenga kuinua shillingi yetu dhidi ya dollar na vile vile kupunguza mzunguko wa pesa mikononi mwa watu.

    Ningependa tulizungumzie hili la kuporomoka kwa shillingi dhidi ya dollar kidogo
    Hili suala lina mapana na marefu sana kwahivyo nitaligusia from a different angle kidogo na kwa kifupi sana. Tatizo kubwa linaliokumba shillingi yetu ni kwamba hakuna anayehiitaji tena shillingi kuliko dollar ya marekani kwani karibia kila kitu tunachokiona madukani kimetokana na matumizi ya dollar kukifikisha hapo dukani. Ni rahisi kwa mtu kukataa kauli yangu hii na kusema kwamba mbona ukienda dukani unatumia shilling na sio dollar; ni kweli lakini vitu vingi sana unavyoviona mle madukani – maduka ya wapemba, kariakoo, mlimani city na kadhalika, wao wamevitoa nje ya nchi, na ujue kwamba hata kuleta blueband toka Kenya uje uuze huku, hautumii madafu kwenda Kenya, unaenda na dollar. Kwahiyo ili wafanyabiashara watuletee blue band, panadol ya Kenya n.k, literary inabidi wazitupe hela zao za madafu into dollars then wafanikishe azma yao hiyo.Kwa mfano, hata Bhakhresa majuzi alikuwa analalamika kwamba Tanzania hakuna matunda ya kutosha hivyo inabidi waagize toka nje – sasa wewe ukienda dukani na kuamua kununua juisi kwa shilling yako ya kitanzania na kuchagua ya azam ukudhani ni Uzalendo kumbe sio; ni kweli juisi imeandikwa Made in Tanzania lakini matunda yaliyokamuliwa kuitengeneza yamenunuliwa kwa dollar;
    Ok, wapo watakaosema, je, vipi kuhusu baadhi ya vitu vinatengenezwa hapa nyumbani kama toilet papers, vibiriti, sabuni, dawa za mbu na kadhalika? Jibu ni kwamba, mchezo ni ule ule. Mashine na malighafi zake haziitokei SIDO bali China na kwingineko. Mwisho wa siku unakuta bila kujijua unanunua bidhaa ambayo dollar imechangia kwa kiasi kikubwa ikufikie wewe, whether directly or indirectly. Kenya wanachofanya ni kinyume na sisi ndio maana fedha yao bado ina nguvu sana dhidi ya dollar. Mambo madogo madogo kama sabuni, dawa za mbu, siagi n.k vinatengenezwa Kenya 100%. Mwalimu Nyerere alisisitiza sana umuhimu wa self – reliance/kujitegemea hasa hasa kwenye light industries, na ni wazo ambalo bado linatakiwa litekelezwe kama tunataka kurudisha thamani yetu ya shillingi. Kinyume chake, hadi sasa tunazidi kushabikia uchumi uchwara – the impressive GDP growth averaging over 6% since the 2000.

    Tukirudi kwenye BOT na uchumi uchwara:
    Leo hii kuna jumla ya benki 41 Tanzania. Takwimu za haraka haraka ni kwamba only four banks ndizo zinashikilia 57% of all assets in the banking sector; of the total assets in the banking sector, about 50% zipo mikononi mwa foreign owned banks, and the other half zipo held by local banks (Tanzanian banks); tusisahau kwamba biashara kubwa kuliko zote ya mabenki makubwa, hasa ya nje hapa Tanzania ni on treasury bonds kuliko on kitu au sector nyingine yoyote, na majuzi BOT imepunguza rates on treasury bonds from 12% to 5%; Unakuta kwamba mwisho wa siku, mteja mkuu wa mabenki ya Tanzania ni serikali kupitia BOT, sio watanzania, na wala sio wafanyabiashara wadogo na wa kati (SMEs); kwa maana nyingine, BOT haipo kwa ajili ya maslahi ya maskini Tanzania zaidi ya porojo za uchumi uchwara.

    Tumeona kwamba jumla ya mzunguko wa fedha kwa siku katika mabenki yote Tanzania ni shillingi billion 40; cha kustaajabisha ni kwamba, asilimia 50 ya mzunguko huu i.e. shilingi bilioni 20 zipo mikononi mwa Vodacom (kupitia M-PESA). Cha kuzidi kustaajabisha ni kwamba sio Ndullu wala Mkullo ambae ameingilia suala hili kati na kuhakikisha kwamba transactions za M-PESA zinakuwa monitored and thus taken into account katika ku manage money growth kama BOT walivyofanya hivi karibuni kwa kuongeza bank rate and cash reserve requirement. Hapa tunagundua kwamba kwa kuto monitor transactions za M-PESA, hatua ya BOT inazihusu only the 20 billion shillings that exchange hands daily while the 20 billion remain un accounted for thus zinaachwa zielee kwenye umma zinavyotaka. And mind you, M-PESA imegeuka kuwa benki ya maskini – while only 15% of Tanzanians wapo katika system ya commercial banks, almost 75% if not more use M-PESA. Kwa maana hii, all the cash that belongs to the informal sector or all transactions done by over 70% of Tanzanians zinatokana na M-PESA ambayo BOT haina muda wa kui regulate. Yet BOT inategemea interventions zake za juzi to trickle down mpaka kwenye informal economy. What an irony!

    Kuna marketing guru mmoja marekani aliwahi kutamka kwamba:
    “I know half of my advertising is wasted but I don’t know which half”;

    Hali hii haina utofauti sana na hali ya Ndullu leo hii na inatakiwa nay eye aseme tena kwa ujasiri kwamba:
    “I know my policy interventions aim to reduce the inflationary pressure on the half of the total money supply in the Tanzanian economy but I don’t know which half”;

    Ebu tutazame nini hasa ni Money Supply :
    Money supply kwa ufupi ni pesa zote ambazo zipo ndani ya mzunguko wa uchumi na tayari kwa matumizi, it include the currency (noti na coins zote), demand deposits (zilizopo kwenye checking accounts), savings deposits and time deposits. In economics hii huitwa M2 au broad money.
    Nyakati za inflation mbali ya vitu vingine, kama tulivyoona BOT hucheza na Interest Rate – pakiwa na inflation, interest rate inapanda ili kushusha inflation and vice versa; vile vile nyakati za inflation, BOT hupandisha cash na kupelekea money supply to total reserve ratio kuwa juu and vice versa;

    Nimejaribu sana kupata takwimu za kuonyesha inflation, interest rate, money supply in Tanzania from an historical perspective na ikanichukua muda mrefu sana kupata takwimu. Benki kuu are hardly up to date na takwimu za namna hii na vile vile hawana takwimu za miaka ya nyuma kama 60s, 70s, or atleast hawaziweki kwenye website kwa makusudi au bahati mbaya. Wka hali hii, ni vigumu kujua kama maamuzi yao huwa based on the trends zilizotokea miaka ya nyuma au la. This becomes more of a concern iwapo uchumi wetu unakuwa na tabia ua uchwara uchwara kama ilivyo sasa. Nina contact yangu nzuri toka World Bank ambae ameweza nisaidia na takwimu za tangia enzi za uhuru. Lakini hapa nitaweka chache tu za on money growth, inflation, interest rate and cash reserve requirement for the past ten years then nyinyi muamue (based on the behavior of these variables) kama kweli it reflects uchumi ulio mikononi mwa wananchi.

    Jedwali 4: Key Monetary Aggregates
    [TABLE]
    [TR]
    [TD]
    [/TD]
    [TD]2000
    [/TD]
    [TD]2001
    [/TD]
    [TD]2002
    [/TD]
    [TD]2003
    [/TD]
    [TD]2004
    [/TD]
    [TD]2005
    [/TD]
    [TD]2006
    [/TD]
    [TD]2007
    [/TD]
    [TD]2008
    [/TD]
    [TD]2009
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Money Supply to reserve Ratio
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.9
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.6
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.3
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.3
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.7
    [/TD]
    [TD]2.2
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.9
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Inflation Rate (%)
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.9
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.1
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.3
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.3
    [/TD]
    [TD]4.7
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.0
    [/TD]
    [TD]7.3
    [/TD]
    [TD]7
    [/TD]
    [TD]10.3
    [/TD]
    [TD]12
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Real interest rate (%)
    [/TD]
    [TD]11.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]15.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]12.9
    [/TD]
    [TD]8.3
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]4.6
    [/TD]
    [TD]4.0
    [/TD]
    [TD]2.7
    [/TD]
    [TD]6.7
    [/TD]
    [TD]7.9
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Money Supply annual growth (%)
    [/TD]
    [TD]14.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]34.2
    [/TD]
    [TD]25.6
    [/TD]
    [TD]17.9
    [/TD]
    [TD]13.5
    [/TD]
    [TD]34.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]21.5
    [/TD]
    [TD]20.5
    [/TD]
    [TD]19.8
    [/TD]
    [TD]17.7
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    Tukumbuke kwamba mara ya mwisho Tanzania ilikuwa katika kiwango kama cha leo cha inflation inflation ilifikia ilikuwa mwaka 1997 wakati wa Mkapa; na mwaka huo GDP growth ilikuwa chini sana at 3.5%; Leo hii inflation is 16.8% ana GDP growth rate is comfortably over 6%. Swali la kujiuliza, je hii ni tabia gani ya economic indicators? Je, huu ni uchumi wa watanzania i.e. is this growth pro - poor? Nawaachia wataalamu wengine watusaidie to interpret the table above. All in all kuna indication kubwa sana something is wrong hapa; ni as if variable kama GDP growth, inflation, money supply growth and other variables zinawakuta our policy makers by surprise. Mkullo au Ndullu, What has been the value of the impressive growth averaging over 6% since the year 2000 kwa watanzania vijijini (over 70% of the population)?

    Other data of interest
    [TABLE]
    [TR]
    [TD]Mwaka
    [/TD]
    [TD]Money Supply growth (%)
    [/TD]
    [TD]Inflation (%)
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1979
    [/TD]
    [TD]46
    [/TD]
    [TD]12.9
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1990
    [/TD]
    [TD]41
    [/TD]
    [TD]35.8
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1992
    [/TD]
    [TD]40
    [/TD]
    [TD]21.8
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1993
    [/TD]
    [TD]39
    [/TD]
    [TD]25
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1994
    [/TD]
    [TD]35
    [/TD]
    [TD]34
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    Key things to note:
    • Mwaka 1979 dunia ilikumbwa na msukosuko wa uchumi, bei za mazao kushuka kwa kasi, bei ya mafuta kupanda kwa kasi, zao letu kuu tegemezi kiuchumi la mkonge kupata substitute duniani ya synthetic fibers, vita vya nduli iddi amini; Jumuiya ya Afrika mashariki ilikuwa imetoka kuvunjika;
    • Katika kipindi cha 1990 na 1994, Tanzania ilifikia hatua ya kuwa nchi ya tatu toka mwisho kwa umaskini, tukiwatangulia nadhani Somalia na Afghanistan pekee.
    Wana Jamiiforums, sio wajibu wangu kupendekeza solutions peke yangu bali kushiriki nanyi kuchangia mawazo. Binafsi nina mawazo mengi juu ya jinsi gani tunaweza pata suluhu juu ya tatizo hili la mfumuko wa bei na vile vile tatizo kubwa zaidi la kuepukana na uchumi uchwara. Kwa sasa labda niseme mambo mawili. Kwanza ni wadau wote wa Maendeleo wakiongozwa na serikali kuja na utaratibu wa kukabili monetized economy tofauti na subsistence economy, tusifanye mchezo wa ‘one size fits all’. Pili, nchi za wenzetu magavana wa benki kuu na mawaziri wa fedha dhamana walizopewa na wapiga kura zikiwalemea huwa wanawaachia wengine wajaribu. Kwa Tanzania alifanya hivyo Mtei akiwa Gavana wa Benki Kuu, na alifanya hivyo Mwalimu Nyerere akiwa Rais wa Tanzania. Katika nyakati tofauti, ilifikia wakasema sasa basi, hili limenishinda, ngoja niwapishe wengine waendeleze nilipoishia. Hicho ndicho kipimo cha kiongozi bora, vinginevyo ni uwepo wa bora kiongozi!
     
  2. Mwanajamii

    Mwanajamii JF-Expert Member

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    Nina mashaka na weredi wakoi ungetoa muktasari wa ulichosoma na kutufikishia ujumbe mfupi hapa nani atasoma hayo yote
     
  3. H

    Hofstede JF-Expert Member

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    Duh! aisee mkuu wewe ni mchambuzi hasa.
    Sijaisoma yote, ushauri wangu ni bora ungetengeza threads tano kwenye hili yaani kila wiki unapost section na mwisho kusema itaendelea......

    Kwa jinsi hii kitu ilivyo ndefu utadhani Academic paper, sidhani kama watumia internet za simu watachangia. Halafu ni kwamba ili uweze kupata wachangiaji threads fupi zinazoamsha michango ni bora zaidi.

    Maana hii mtu akianza na mstari wa kwanza then akafika wa mwisho atakuwa amesahau wa kwanza ulisemaje na kujikuta hajui achangie nini. Otherwise ni uchambuzi mzuri sana kwa mwenye kutaka kujifunza.
     
  4. Semilong

    Semilong JF-Expert Member

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    Mchambuzi naomba uifanyie uchambuzi hii habari yako
     
  5. Kimbunga

    Kimbunga Platinum Member

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    Mkuu umetoa elimu kubwa. nitaiprint niiweke kwenye maktaba yangu.
     
  6. Mwanajamii

    Mwanajamii JF-Expert Member

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    umedesa mada mahala hukiilewa unaleta hapa kutupa usumbufu
     
  7. Juma Contena

    Juma Contena JF-Expert Member

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    Inaonesha ni jinsi gani hawa jamaa wawili walivyo useless kwa data ulizo shusha. Thank you for the effort, if only hao waandishi wa magezeti wangejua jinsi ya kuripoti habari magazetini, may be you should add another career goal.
     
  8. Mshume Kiyate

    Mshume Kiyate JF-Expert Member

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    kweli hawa jamaa uchwara hakuna kitu kabisa..
     
  9. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Nashukuru Juma contena. Kuhusu magazeti, hakuna lililo bora kuliko mtandao wa JF - mengi ni aidha uchwara au yamenunuliwa na mafisadii. Kinachosubiriwa kwa hamu na wananchi ni teknolojia rahisi ya wao kuweza kuwa sehemu ya JF. Siku hiyo inakuja kwani teknolojia haimtupi mja wake.
     
  10. D

    DAR si LAMU JF-Expert Member

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    ...Ndugu, siku nyingine jaribu kufupisha hoja unayojenga kuhusu suala fulani. Ingekuwa unamjibu mwalimu wako wa ME 201, ningeelewa kidogo.

    ...Tuweke mambo machache sawa. Unataka kutuambia kuwa bwana mkubwa hana lolote analolifahamu juu ya hali ya uchumi, kwasasa? Sidhani kama mtazamo huo ni sahihi. Tunategemea kwamba ana washauri wengi zaidi ya hao wawili katika eneo hili; Mkulo na Prof. Ndullu. Wale washauri wake wa uchumi si wapo?.

    ...Kama wameshindwa kazi, tunategemea atafahamu. Kumbuka, majuzi alitoka kufoka juu ya kasi ya kuzalisha umeme wa dharura. Naamini kuwa, anafahamu nini kinachoendelea kuliko hata baadhi yetu.

    ...Nakubaliana nawe kwamba, kwa hatua hii, monetary policy haitafua dafu hata kidogo. Fiscal policy inabidi itumike kwa nguvu zote. Na hapa ndio kwenye tatizo. Je, watu watakula wapi? kumbuka, tuna watu walafi na wabinafsi kupindukia, hivi sasa. Tunabidi pia, kuiweka na kuisimamia sawa sawa sekta ya fedha; kuna money laundering, unmonitored and unaccounted transactions, a huge informal economy, n.k.

    ...Btw, Gov. Mtei hakutoka serikalini kwa kushindwa kazi, bali, alipishana na Mwl. Nyerere kwenye sera za uchumi, hasa kuhusiana na kukubali masharti ya WB/IMF.
     
  11. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

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    Mchambuzi,

    BAK na Juma Contena watakuwa shahidi niliwahi kumtahadharisha Mheshimiwa Mkullo kuwa bila ya serikali kufanya maamuzi magumu ya kutight fiscal policy we are heading to the doldrums. Nikamuambia Professa Ndulu kuwa BOT intervention may only save the situation in the short run but in long run tutakuwa worse off. Serikali inachokifanya kuongeza kodi katika mafuta na vitu vyengine ili kuongeza mapato sio busara bali inatakiwa ipunguze matumizi yake (government expenditure, expand tax resources, regulate excessive use of us dollars and electricity shortage). Kasi ya ukopaji wa serikali yetu, kuporomoka kwa shillingi are just early signals to woes of Tanzania economy. Tutakapoanza kukwama katika kasi ya ulipaji madeni ya nchi, kupungua kwa foreign direct investment and spiral inflation pressures ndio Tanzania economy itakwama.

    Ndio maana wenzetu ulaya wanawashauri wa Rais katika masuala ya uchumi (maprofessa wa uchumi waliobobea na wafanyabiashara wenye uzoefu wa muda mrefu) ambao watamshauri rais nini la kufanya. Perhaps labda tuulize rais wetu washauri wake wa uchumi ni akina nani?
     
  12. D

    DAR si LAMU JF-Expert Member

    #12
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    ...Mganga akikwambia kunywa dawa usipokunywa ukapata kilema na labda kukaribia mauti, ni kosa la nani?

    ...Muda si mrefu watu wataanza kuheshimu taaluma za watu.
     
  13. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

    #13
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    I am interested to know who are economic advisers of our President kwasababu watakuwa wanaishi labda nchi tofauti na hii tunayoishi. Nauliza hivi kwasababu economic advisers wa rais ndio wana sauti ya mwisho kwa rais na wao ndio wanatoa independent view ya ishu muhimu ambazo rais anapelekewa na waziri na gavana wake. Vile vile wao ndio wanatengeneza mbadala wa mapendekezo ya waziri au gavana wakiona ni bomu. Hivyo tujiulize washauri wa rais akina nani tutapata kujua tatizo liko wapi.
     
  14. D

    DAR si LAMU JF-Expert Member

    #14
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    ...Kama mimi na wewe tunafahamu nini cha kufanya, basi, i wazi wapi tatizo lilipo.
     
  15. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    Asante kwa ushauri Dar Si Lamu. Nakubaliana na wewe pia kwamba tatizo lipo kwenye fiscal side lakini pia monetary side wana mapungufu yao. Kuhusu washauri wa Rais, ni jambo lililo wazi kwamba washauri wake wakuu JK kuhusu uchumi especially katika hali kama hii ni Ndullu na Mkullo, unless una maana he reaches out for others besides the two ambao wanajazia mapungufu au ziada ya hawa wawili. Kuhusu Mtei kupishana na Mwalimu ni sahihi lakini bado hoja ipo pale pale kwamba aliamua kuachia ngazi baada ya kuona yale anayoyafanya katika mazingira wa uchumi ule hayafanyi kazi.
     
  16. D

    DAR si LAMU JF-Expert Member

    #16
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    ...Mchambuzi, sio kwamba anao hao tu. Kwa ufahamu wangu, ni kuwa, ,marais wote duniani huwa na washauri wa masuala mbalimbali, ukiwaacha hao wawili. Washauri wa uchumi wapo pia. Na hawa ndio hutakiwa kushape mtazamo wake kwenye uchumi. Hao wawili ni washauri watekelezaji.

    ...Anyways, the bucks stops with him. Kama hawamshauri vizuri, tunategemea atawaweka pembeni.
     
  17. M

    Mdondoaji JF-Expert Member

    #17
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    Mkuu,

    Monetary side inayo mapungufu yake ila faida ya monetary policy ni kwamba wanaweza both direct instrument and indirect instruments to reduce volume of currencies in the economy. Hata hivyo, kupunguza amount of money in the circulation ina limitation zake especially katika uchumi kama wetu mchanga (emerging economy). Kwanza tunategemea wazalishaji wa kati (SME) ambao kama sekta ya fedha itapunguza mzunguko wa hela wengi wao wanaweza kukwama. Vile vile ukisema watumie monetary policy kubana matumizi utaaffect sekta ya mikopo ambayo pia ni uti wa mgongo wa ukuaji wa uchumi wa nchi hii.

    Inflationary pressure za nchi zinasababishwa na vitu viwili kwanza upandaji wa bei za mafuta (hilo liko nje ya uwezo wa Tanzania) na la pili kupotea kwa nishati ya umeme kunakosababisha kupanda kwa gharama za uzalishaji na eventually kupanda kwa bei za vitu madukani. Tukisema tupunguze amount of money in the circulation unaweza kusababisha a third inflation pressure nayo ni kutoka katika riba ya mikopo na credit squeeze.

    Ningelikuwa mie gavana ningelikubali inflation iwe inaendelea kama ilivyo lakini ningelijitahidi kumhamasisha waziri wa fedha na rais wahakikishe tatizo la umeme litokomee. Kwani kutatuliwa kwa tatizo la umeme kutapunguza inflation pressure katika nchi na kusaidia kupungua kwa makali ya maisha.

    Washauri wa uchumi wa rais ni vizuri kuwafahamu kwani they should have detected these signals three years before or may be more. Ushauri wa rais sio kwenda kunywa chai na rais au kahawa bali ni kufanya kazi yenye kuaffect hundreds of lives in the country. Kama sio wachumi waliobobea basi tunacheza viduku tu kwani waziri au gavana hatoweza hata siku kumcriticise bosi aliyempa chakula wao ni watekelezaji na sio washauri. Lakini mshauri anao uwezo wa kumwambia mzee hivyo sio kwasababu yeye ni mshauri. Na rais akiamua kumtoa katika ushauri anarudi kwenye kazi yake ya zamani na maisha yanaendelea.
     
  18. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Nov 6, 2011
    Joined: Aug 24, 2007
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    Ulikuwa na bado upo sahihi; cha kushangaza ni kwamba Ndullu ni mmoja wa wachumi wa hali ya juu kabisa kimataifa na ameandika mambo mazuri mengi sana miaka ya nyuma covering uchumi chini ya Nyerere hadi Mkapa lakini hatuoni akiyatekeleza kwa vitendo; Lipumba ambae ni mwenzake as World Class Economists toka IV League nae anasema mengi sana sasahivi on the root cause of the problem and how we can get out of it; Kinachoonekana ni kwamba walimu ni wazuri kwa maneno yao, sio matendo yao.

    Kuhusu washauri wa Rais katika masuala ya uchumi, ni dhahiri amezungukwa na wataalamu wengi sana, tatizo labda wanamwogopa na wanajitahidi kumweleza yale tu ambayo wanadhani atapenda kuyasikia wakati ukweli ni kwamba JK ni msikilizaji mzuri. Kama mnavyokumbuka enzi za iddi amin - true story - alitembelea siku moja Central Bank of Uganda ghafla after uchumi kuanza kuporomoka na kukutana na gavana, wakiwa kwenye corridor akauliza "Mr Gavana, tatizo ni nini"? Gavana akajibu, 'it is inflation your excellency', Amin akasimama na kuhamaki na kumwangalia usoni , "the problem is inflation?????, who is this inflation individual?" Gavana kuona hali ngumu na kwamba ni tatizo kumkosoa Rais, akamwonyeshea afisa mmoja aliekuwa karibu yao na kusema 'that's him sir'; iddi Amin akatoa amri - "Give him V.I.P treatment right away' meaning auliwe, walinzi wakatekeleza hayo.
     
  19. D

    DAR si LAMU JF-Expert Member

    #19
    Nov 6, 2011
    Joined: Mar 31, 2007
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    ...Ninavyoona, inflation hii inachochewa na mahitaji makubwa ya chakula; nchi jirani kama Kenya, Zambia, Malawi, n.k zimekuwa soko kubwa la nafaka yetu. Kukosekana kwa umeme mara kwa mara kumepelekea gharama za uzalishaji kupanda; kwakuwa mafuta yanatumika zaidi. Utegemezi wa manunuzi mengi toka nje, yenye kutumia dollar, huku shilingi ikishuka thamani kumechangia; bei za vitu vingi vitokavyo nje zimepanda.

    ...Ningependa kufahamu, Mkapa alikuwa anashauriwa na kina nani. Watanzania, au Wamarekani na Waingereza?
     
  20. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #20
    Nov 6, 2011
    Joined: Aug 24, 2007
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    Mdondoaji, ni kweli kwamba nishati na mafuta vinachangia. Suala la nishati limeshazungumzwa sana na tatizo lake ni kwamba kwanza - ni tabia yetu CCM kujaribu kukwepa kumruhusu waziri fulani aibuke kuwa a hero na mradi fulani kwani itamtengenezea njia ya Urais, ndio maana miaka yote, mawaziri wote ambao system iliyopo haimtaki awe next president wanapewa wizara za kawaida sana - kwahiyo siasa zinatangulizwa kuliko maslahi ya taifa; pia katika miradi migongano ya kisera (mawaziri) na kiutendaji (makatibu wakuu) huwa wanagongana sana na mwisho wake miradi mingi kuwa shelved; vile vile mawaziri wengi wanapenda kuchangamkia miradi ya upesi upesi kwani hiyo inawapatia ten percent mapema wakiwa bado kwenye nyadhifa zao kuliko kusubiri miradi yenye milolongo mirefu, na matokeo yake ni Richmond, IPTL n.k.

    Pia kuna taarifa kwamba kwa miaka mingi sana WorldBank iliamua at any cost to discourage development of any major project za umeme zilizokuwa cheaper than Gas before songosongo's project starts to pay back kwani IFC wana hela zao mle, ndio maana miradi mikubwa mikubwa kama Mchuchuma imakuwa inapigwa danadana; viongozi wetu wakiamua shinika wanaweza geuza hili but wengi they dont because ya mambo ambayo baadhi yake nimeyaelezea hapo tu; pale tu songo songo itakapoanza kuwarudishia IFC fedha zao ndipo tutaanza kuona miradi mikubwa ya umeme ikipewa ukipa umbele;

    Kuhusu monetary policy and credit squeeze, hivi ni sekta gani zinapata the largest chunk of credit Tanzania? Ni mbili tu - construction and trade by very far; manufacturing na SMEs zipo way down the bottom;

    Kuhusu kushauri gavana aachie inflation iendelee, this is problematic kwani it would eat up earnings za all factors of production namely wages, rent, interest, profits especially if margins zake zipo below the rate of inflation; pia malipo kama pension kwa wazee wetu wastaafu purchasing power yake would erode kwani hiz ni fixed amount for the rest of your life; nadhani point yako ni kwamba suala sio to arrest inflation bali to match it with the availability of goods in the circulation and thats where masuala ya umeme na uzalishaji yanakuja; but all in all, inflation rate that is above rewards of other factors of production, capital in particular is problematic; a desirable rate is that of single digits, and the lower the better;
     
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