Ministerial Positions? - A Tactical Assault on Chadema

[babu M]

Kikwete akifanya hivyo itakula kwake-Chadema wakikataa hiyo offer na kuwavua uwanachama wale vinganganizi, itasaidi kupunguza migogoro ndani ya Chadema na uongozi kufanya mambo kwa pamoja na kwakuaminiana.

Kwa upande wa wananchi kitajenga imani kwamba wanamsimamo

 

[babu M]

Utabiri wangu kesho
WAZIRI WA VIWANDA NA BIASHARA - NDESAMBURO
NAIBU WAZIRI WA NISHATI NA MADINI-ZITTO

 

[DAR si LAMU]

The ruling part has been able to deflect with such military precision the political advances and gains made by CHADEMA during the General Elections on 31st October, 2010. Using well known military tactics CCM has been able to "return" fire and has put CHADEMA once again in total shock and in defensive positions. The ultimately goal of this strategy is not just to weaken CHADEMA right now but to absolutely annihilate it before 2015. CHADEMA stands as the greatest threat to CCM political dominance and clout in the nation. CHADEMA then must be destroyed at whatever cost.




We have to understand that one of the advantages of CCM is that it is run by a number of ex-military personel (especially at the Central Committee) such as Lt. Jakaya Kikwete, Lt. Yusuph Makamba, Col. Abdulrahman Kinana, Capt. George Mkuchika, and Capt. John Chiligati. You will see that the five ex-military offices hold positions of strategic significance a.k.a attack positions. Compared to this Chadema at its highest ranks no one has any formal military training beside the National Service experience. Not Mbowe, Zitto, Slaa, Mnyika, or Lissu etc who can see things from a military perspective like the other side does. This is one of the biggest disadvantage that Chadema has compared to CCM.

After a successful deflection of the "walk-out" which has left some people confused to what actually is the current position of CHADEMA on recognizing Kikwete's win the next step for CCM is to return CHADEMA to its proper political position – the disgruntled perpetual opposition. Although CHADEMA came out of the election a winner CHADEMA has miserably failed to articulate this victory to the mass. They have not even been able to organize a rally to give their supporters an opportunity to celebrate the gains they have made. It is as if CHADEMA itself believe that it failed or did not do well at all: Is that so?

• CHADEMA Presidential candidate Dr. Slaa gained 2.2 million votes; no other opposition candidate before him ever reached the 2 million mark.
• CHADEMA gained more MPs than ever before. You have to remember that it only had 6 (if I'm correct) constituent MPs, right now it has over 24 and I'll argue if they challenge certain CCM's victories they might gain about 7 more seats.
• CHADEMA gained more Special Seats than ever before
• CHADEMA was able to retain all of the sits gained during 2005 expect one
• While in 2005 CHADEMA only had 3 councils to run this time it has 12 of them! Some of them being the most prominent such as Mbeya Urban, Mwanza, Musoma and Arusha urban!
• CHADEMA was finally able to penetrate Dar-es-Salaam one of the most difficult political regions in Tanzania. And I believe the Segerea seat will ultimately come back to CHADEMA.

Now, it is sad that CHADEMA believe that CCM "won" to the point they can not even celebrate their own victory. It is sad that going a month after the historic election CHADEMA have not organized a single pep rally for their supporters to appreciate how they voters came through for them. It is indeed disheartening to see that the people who campaigned so much to have people come and vote for them are now back to their individualistic and egoistical mentality and those parochial politics. They could not stand together for a month, shameful!

So from a military standpoint CCM can not and will not allow any further advances by CHADEMA towards or in 2015. The only mission for CCM's strategists right now is to push back CHADEMA with a vengeance. They can not allow any further advances. So far I can see a meticulous campaign to weaken CHADEMA.

But all this is good for CCM and its tacticians. We know CHADEMA can not and will never have a unified position on matters of principle; we know for a fact that they can not stand together and put a rational defense of their positions without finding themselves in such notable disagreement, and we know there are so much internal wrangling that it is almost impossible for the Chadema's top brass to function towards victory in 2015. Well, CCM must seize this moment and will in fact seize it. How will this happen?

I believe the best way to course more discontent and division within CHADEMA and weaken it from within is to offer them 2 ministerial positions. I don't see any rational possibility of giving them full cabinet positions because they ministers will have to participate in cabinet deliberations but I can see two Deputy Ministers. But, I will not be surprised if one of them is indeed a full cabinet position.

Once these offers are made CHADEMA must come out and say if they would take the positions or if they would reject them. What does a taking ministerial position mean for CHADEMA?

Two camps will emerge and I totally foresee that they two camps will be in the same line as those who opposed or supported the walk out.

Take Them Camp – This camp will argue for national healing, reconciliation and unity CHADEMA must take the ministerial positions. It will argue that the president has shown he is willing to work with all people and all parties and rejecting them it will be disrespectful of the president. So, this group will whole heartedly jump to take the offered positions.

Don't Take Them Camp – This camp will urge the appointed MPs to refuse the positions based on the argument that by taking the positions it will be legitimizing Kikwete's victory and will remove in perpetuity the argument that the election was not as free and fair. They will argue that by agreeing to take ministerial positions in CCM's administration will be like an endorsement of CCM's election platform. CHADEMA MPs must not work to implement CCMs manifesto.

The two positions will divide the supporters and CHADEMA members in the same line of reasoning and therefore weaken the party more. It will be more troubling if the appointed MPs from CHADEMA will go to be sworn in as ministers/deputies regardless of the party's directives or by saying "we put the nation's interests first".

CHADEMA will have to react swiftly and categorically to deflect that charm offensive when their MPs are named as potential ministers or deputies:

1. First by answering this question was the party consulted in the naming of its MPs or they too found out as the names were read in public. If the answer is NO then CHADEMA must directs its MPs to refuse the posts for they were not done in good faith. If the answer is YES then the party must say if it endorsed the appointments.
2. If the party had rejected the move by the President to name its MPs to ministerial positions then it should be categorical in pointing that out and direct its MPs to refuse the positions.
3. If the MPs are adamant in joining the CCM's government then the Party in a compromise position must ask the president to allow the MPs to implement Chademas' manifesto in their respective ministries. This will be very unlikely to be agreed. If the president refuses then the party must direct its MPs not to TAKE those positions.
4. If the MPs still want to take those positions then CHADEMA will have only one choice to make which will be to remove those MPs from party membership so that the president can nominate them MPs and give them the same positions and call for bi-elections in the respective constituencies to fill up the seats. In this last scenario which I believe might be the most likely to happen CHADEMA will win (by standing on principle), its appointed MPs will win (they will be named MPs and Ministers) and the President will win (by having the people from the opposition who he believes will help him implement his agenda only now they will be not from CHADEMA). But CCM will lose for no CHADEMA MP will take part in the cabinet.

Once this is resolved we have to sit down and wait for another assault on CHADEMA, its MPs, Members and supporters for we know for a fact CCM will not give up power without a fight and believe me fighting they will. Chadema will have to learn to think from a military strategic, they will have to answer one of the oldest military war questions - how does a small army defeat a well equipped, trained and financed army? Unless Chadema find the answer to this question they will not be able to defeat their political adversary and will find itself more than once in defensive positions like it finds itself now.

So the only way to bring unity, reconciliation and harmony in CHADEMA (as if that would be CCM"s interest) is NOT to offer any ministerial position to CHADEMA or its MPs. Wouldn't you agree?



MMM

...A nice piece of fiction, supported by some few facts!

 

[MpendaTz]

Utabiri wangu kesho
WAZIRI WA VIWANDA NA BIASHARA - NDESAMBURO
NAIBU WAZIRI WA NISHATI NA MADINI-ZITTO

Aisee nimekuamini kwa kusababisha rafu za makusudi za maneno. Hivi kweli unategemea yule Mzee wa watu akubali hicho cheo cha uwaziri ndani ya CCM? Nadhani uliwahi kusoma mambo ya wafalme wa zamani, akimchukia mtu sana humwandalia karamu nzuri saaana ili ammalize kwa chakula na kinywaji. Sijui kama hii staili bado inatumika Mkuu

 

[Uwezo Tunao]

Kikwete akifanya hivyo itakula kwake-Chadema wakikataa hiyo offer na kuwavua uwanachama wale vinganganizi, itasaidi kupunguza migogoro ndani ya Chadema na uongozi kufanya mambo kwa pamoja na kwakuaminiana.

Kwa upande wa wananchi kitajenga imani kwamba wanamsimamo

Good take man!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Arafat]

Watanzania wanataka mabadiliko ya kweli, hawahitaji ubabaishaji wowote yaani wamechoka, kama kuna mtu atatumika kama njia ya kufanya shambulio hilo majibu yametolewa hapo juu na Mwanakijiji, tena nashauri hayo majibu yaperekwe CHADEMA; wasisite kuchukua hatua kati dhidi ya mbabaishaji yoyote anayetaka kuturudisha nyuma.
Cha-muhimu ni kujua pia kuwa kuna-mashambulizi kwa raia na wanachama kwa ujumla; mashambulizi kama hayo hufanywa kwa kusambaza hewa chafu hili watu wengi wafe kwa hara na kwa mkupuo yaani "Chemical attach" haya ni muhimu kuyajua maana nimeona baadhi ya harufu ya mashambulizi ya Gas hata humu, mjue kuwa Viongozi Imara bila wanachama Imara hatutafika Wanachama Imara ni Muhimu sana kuliko Viongozi imara kwa kuwa akipigwa risasi wa mbele wanyuma yake anaingia kwa nguvu mara dufu. Ebu mtafakari sana kuna watu wameanza kuleta hoja teke nimesoma kuna moja inaharufu ya Dini imechanganyikana na elimu anajifanya kumsifia Slaa kuwa amesoma ana PhD siyo ya kupewa lakini ndani anaingiza Uislam na Ukristo huo ni mfano wa shambulizi kwa raia tuwe makini safari bado ndefu, atakae jikwaa na asimame tuendelee atakayeshindwa jamii nzima inamwona
hizi ni salamu zangu za awali

 

[RayB]

Kama ni kweli anataka kuua upinzani na kama anataka kujikosha kwa public basi atafanya hivyo ila inajulikana wazi kuwa CUF watakuwa wengi na kwa upande wa CHADEMA wanajulikana wenye chances

 

[Pascal Mayalla]

The ruling part has been able to deflect with such military precision the political advances and gains made by CHADEMA during the General Elections on 31st October, 2010. Using well known military tactics CCM has been able to "return" fire and has put CHADEMA once again in total shock and in defensive positions. The ultimately goal of this strategy is not just to weaken CHADEMA right now but to absolutely annihilate it before 2015. CHADEMA stands as the greatest threat to CCM political dominance and clout in the nation. CHADEMA then must be destroyed at whatever cost.

We have to understand that one of the advantages of CCM is that it is run by a number of ex-military personel (especially at the Central Committee) such as Lt. Jakaya Kikwete, Lt. Yusuph Makamba, Col. Abdulrahman Kinana, Capt. George Mkuchika, and Capt. John Chiligati. You will see that the five ex-military offices hold positions of strategic significance a.k.a attack positions. Compared to this Chadema at its highest ranks no one has any formal military training beside the National Service experience. Not Mbowe, Zitto, Slaa, Mnyika, or Lissu etc who can see things from a military perspective like the other side does. This is one of the biggest disadvantage that Chadema has compared to CCM.

After a successful deflection of the “walk-out” which has left some people confused to what actually is the current position of CHADEMA on recognizing Kikwete’s win the next step for CCM is to return CHADEMA to its proper political position – the disgruntled perpetual opposition. Although CHADEMA came out of the election a winner CHADEMA has miserably failed to articulate this victory to the mass. They have not even been able to organize a rally to give their supporters an opportunity to celebrate the gains they have made. It is as if CHADEMA itself believe that it failed or did not do well at all: Is that so?

• CHADEMA Presidential candidate Dr. Slaa gained 2.2 million votes; no other opposition candidate before him ever reached the 2 million mark.
• CHADEMA gained more MPs than ever before. You have to remember that it only had 6 (if I’m correct) constituent MPs, right now it has over 24 and I’ll argue if they challenge certain CCM’s victories they might gain about 7 more seats.
• CHADEMA gained more Special Seats than ever before
• CHADEMA was able to retain all of the sits gained during 2005 expect one
• While in 2005 CHADEMA only had 3 councils to run this time it has 12 of them! Some of them being the most prominent such as Mbeya Urban, Mwanza, Musoma and Arusha urban!
• CHADEMA was finally able to penetrate Dar-es-Salaam one of the most difficult political regions in Tanzania. And I believe the Segerea seat will ultimately come back to CHADEMA.

Now, it is sad that CHADEMA believe that CCM “won” to the point they can not even celebrate their own victory. It is sad that going a month after the historic election CHADEMA have not organized a single pep rally for their supporters to appreciate how they voters came through for them. It is indeed disheartening to see that the people who campaigned so much to have people come and vote for them are now back to their individualistic and egoistical mentality and those parochial politics. They could not stand together for a month, shameful!

So from a military standpoint CCM can not and will not allow any further advances by CHADEMA towards or in 2015. The only mission for CCM’s strategists right now is to push back CHADEMA with a vengeance. They can not allow any further advances. So far I can see a meticulous campaign to weaken CHADEMA.

But all this is good for CCM and its tacticians. We know CHADEMA can not and will never have a unified position on matters of principle; we know for a fact that they can not stand together and put a rational defense of their positions without finding themselves in such notable disagreement, and we know there are so much internal wrangling that it is almost impossible for the Chadema’s top brass to function towards victory in 2015. Well, CCM must seize this moment and will in fact seize it. How will this happen?

I believe the best way to course more discontent and division within CHADEMA and weaken it from within is to offer them 2 ministerial positions. I don’t see any rational possibility of giving them full cabinet positions because they ministers will have to participate in cabinet deliberations but I can see two Deputy Ministers. But, I will not be surprised if one of them is indeed a full cabinet position.

Once these offers are made CHADEMA must come out and say if they would take the positions or if they would reject them. What does a taking ministerial position mean for CHADEMA?

Two camps will emerge and I totally foresee that they two camps will be in the same line as those who opposed or supported the walk out.

Take Them Camp – This camp will argue for national healing, reconciliation and unity CHADEMA must take the ministerial positions. It will argue that the president has shown he is willing to work with all people and all parties and rejecting them it will be disrespectful of the president. So, this group will whole heartedly jump to take the offered positions.

Don’t Take Them Camp – This camp will urge the appointed MPs to refuse the positions based on the argument that by taking the positions it will be legitimizing Kikwete’s victory and will remove in perpetuity the argument that the election was not as free and fair. They will argue that by agreeing to take ministerial positions in CCM’s administration will be like an endorsement of CCM’s election platform. CHADEMA MPs must not work to implement CCMs manifesto.

The two positions will divide the supporters and CHADEMA members in the same line of reasoning and therefore weaken the party more. It will be more troubling if the appointed MPs from CHADEMA will go to be sworn in as ministers/deputies regardless of the party’s directives or by saying “we put the nation’s interests first”.

CHADEMA will have to react swiftly and categorically to deflect that charm offensive when their MPs are named as potential ministers or deputies:

1. First by answering this question was the party consulted in the naming of its MPs or they too found out as the names were read in public. If the answer is NO then CHADEMA must directs its MPs to refuse the posts for they were not done in good faith. If the answer is YES then the party must say if it endorsed the appointments.
2. If the party had rejected the move by the President to name its MPs to ministerial positions then it should be categorical in pointing that out and direct its MPs to refuse the positions.
3. If the MPs are adamant in joining the CCM’s government then the Party in a compromise position must ask the president to allow the MPs to implement Chademas’ manifesto in their respective ministries. This will be very unlikely to be agreed. If the president refuses then the party must direct its MPs not to TAKE those positions.
4. If the MPs still want to take those positions then CHADEMA will have only one choice to make which will be to remove those MPs from party membership so that the president can nominate them MPs and give them the same positions and call for bi-elections in the respective constituencies to fill up the seats. In this last scenario which I believe might be the most likely to happen CHADEMA will win (by standing on principle), its appointed MPs will win (they will be named MPs and Ministers) and the President will win (by having the people from the opposition who he believes will help him implement his agenda only now they will be not from CHADEMA). But CCM will lose for no CHADEMA MP will take part in the cabinet.

Once this is resolved we have to sit down and wait for another assault on CHADEMA, its MPs, Members and supporters for we know for a fact CCM will not give up power without a fight and believe me fighting they will. Chadema will have to learn to think from a military strategic, they will have to answer one of the oldest military war questions - how does a small army defeat a well equipped, trained and financed army? Unless Chadema find the answer to this question they will not be able to defeat their political adversary and will find itself more than once in defensive positions like it finds itself now.

So the only way to bring unity, reconciliation and harmony in CHADEMA (as if that would be CCM"s interest) is NOT to offer any ministerial position to CHADEMA or its MPs. Wouldn't you agree?

MMM

Thanks for this, kwa idhini yako, naomba kuitumia hii mahali fulani, nitakuatribute na itakuwa hivi hivi ilivyo, not a word more, not a word less.

 

[Jembe Ulaya]

Shibuda waziri, Mhonga naibu waziri.

 

[jmushi1]

This is not even about Zitto.. for Zitto is good being the Asst Opposition leader and CCM knows that so.. ningekuwa CCM siwezi kumpa Zitto offer ya Uwaziri! Kumpa Zitto is too predictable! wape wengine halafu Zitto na Mbowe na watu walio nyuma wao wajikuta wanachukua opposing sides. It is not about Zitto at all kwa upande wa CCM this is about the attack on CHADEMA.

Kwa hiyo attack on chadema is not attack on Zitto?

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Kwa hiyo attack on chadema is not attack on Zitto?

not necessarily... one can attack an organization without attacking individual members of that organization.

 

[Mkandara]

We have to understand that one of the advantages of CCM is that it is run by a number of ex-military personel (especially at the Central Committee) such as Lt. Jakaya Kikwete, Lt. Yusuph Makamba, Col. Abdulrahman Kinana, Capt. George Mkuchika, and Capt. John Chiligati. You will see that the five ex-military offices hold positions of strategic significance a.k.a attack positions. Compared to this Chadema at its highest ranks no one has any formal military training beside the National Service experience. Not Mbowe, Zitto, Slaa, Mnyika, or Lissu etc who can see things from a military perspective like the other side does. This is one of the biggest disadvantage that Chadema has compared to CCM.

This piece scares me most!

Talking from CCM point of view, I beg top differ. In a series of extraordinary events, I don't think JK will appoint any Chadema MP to serve under his political coup Government. Strategically this may cause more trouble within the party itself 'cause the're many CCM MPs waiting in line to be appointed than positions to be filled, as a fact some have taken rather astonishing steps in securing their position through witchcraft.

Kwa wachumia tumbo, such move by CCM to include Chadema or CUF MPs in the ministerial cabinet will definitely weaken CCM and expect many MPs to makes their move during Parliament session. Another right-wing factional will be formed indirectly and may support Opposition by joining and others will support Chadema initiating a series of maneuvers behind the backs of the caucus and the party to affect leadership challenge.

Within no time Wapambanaji wapya will be in full swing issuing defiant statements that they have been elected by the people, not by a factional Mtandao..Once JK lose their confidence and their support will be withdrawn, his opinion poll rating and that of the CCM party, will fall accordingly....This time CCM won't survive.

- Again To understand Watu na Mazingira. CCM leadership has ceased to be a mass political party in any meaningful sense. Most challenges are not decided by President for the people or nation interest but by a tiny handful of known factional bosses and financial elites who don't give a damn about CCM survival rather their interests.

Well, I can't wait..

 

[Kichuguu]

Mwanakijiji; usiwaogope hao wanajeshi uchwara; wote walikuwa selule tu, hawakuwa wapiganaji kama akina Lupogo au Kota. Kwa hiyo hawana mbinu yoyote ya ushindi zaidi ya kutegemea kuiba kura na kutumia rushwa za aina mbalimbali zikiwemo fulana, tisheti, pesa, pikipiki na ahadi lukuki zisizo na nyuma wala mbele. Hakuna hata mmoja kati yao aliyepitia mafunzo halisi ya kijeshi kuweza kuona mambo ya adui kwa mapana na marefu, wao walipitia kwata za rasharasha na kupewa vyeo vilivyokuwa vimekwisha pangwa. Makamba alikuwa ni mtoa burudani jeshini, hakuwa mpiganaji. Kikwete alikuwa kamisaa na mpelelezi wa kisisasa, hakuwa mpiganaji; Mkuchika ndiye basi kabisa; hakutumikia jeshi muda mrefu akaenda kuwa mkuu wa wilaya mpaka leo, naye alikuwa kamisaa wa siasa tu. Sina background ya Kinana ila nadhani naye alikuwa ni selule tu, ndiyo maana hana mbinu yoyote zaidi ya wizi wa kura na rushwa.


Kwa ulafi wa CCM, sioni kama kuwa uwezekano wa kutoa ministerial position kwa mtu yeyote wa CHADEMA; Wao wenyewe ni wengi waliopigania sana ubunge kwa matumaini ya kuukwaa uwaziri, kwa hiyo kama Kikwete akiwaaacha na kuchukua mtu wa CHADEMA nadhani atazidi kukigawa chama chake zaidi. CHADEMA ina watu makini sana. Nimewahi kuambiwa kuwa baada za zogo la Buzwagi na lile la Richmond, Kikwete alitaka kumpa Zitto nafasi ya uwaziri akakwaa Kisiki, na vile vile Kikwete aliwahi kumapproach Slaa ili awe Balozi umaja wa Mataifa, nako akakwaa kisiki. Labda Shibuda akipewa Uwaziri atachukua lakini huyo atajulikana kuwa ni CCM tu.


Kikwete anaogopoa watu wa CHADEMA wasikaribie kwenye siri za serikali kwa vile ataumbuka na huenda hata mpango wa namna walivyotekeleza wizi wa kura utagundulika.

 

[Membensamba]

Mzee Mwanakijiji thank you for this great analysis. I agree with you on the point that ccm is strategically hastining to annihilate cdm, and that to some extent they have been successful in throwing it into confusion. But I also see this as a very healthy senario for cdm. Why? because, first, this is serving as training for them. The cdm leader are toughening up as they encounter serious opposition from ccm, and this will serve them well in the future should they come out victoriously. Second, this will help filter out for cdm those unreliable ones, thus strengthening the party further.

As for the selection of cdm MPs I seriously doubt if ccm will dare do that. But if they do, it will be clear to the public that the ones chosen are viruses sent into cdm to "finish it off." Don't forget that already the public is skeptical of some of cdm MP's. So it will not be difficut for cdm to vomit them up. My advice to cdm is just to make sure they stick to the principles and not be afraid. I think your analysis has encouraged them to see this senario positively and not negatively. Again thank you mzee.

 

[Deodat]

Mwanakijiji I should first congratulate you for this well articulated Game theoritic analysis. You have tried to indicate all the possible route paths and the corresponding outcomes (payoffs). But I wonder if this will happen......, that 4th scenario is the best scenario-win-win situation just as you said (optimal solution), but the truth is CCM now has reached a point that they can not reverse their natural death process, however, how long it will take before we burry them it entirely depends on the nxt move taken by CHADEMA. I believe, despite the military background of those top guys in CCM, they will hardly see this case in the same specs as you have analysed, UFISADI na MAFISADI have obscured the analytical part of their brains. They will not see this opportunity.

Anyway....lets wait and see but for sure, I recommend that CHADEMA should take your analysis seriously and it will open their eyes, even though they dont have military strategists, a few economists and political analysts like you can fill the gap with GAME THEORETIC STRATEGIES!

 

[Kinyambiss]

JK oh JK... embu tupe tuu first 11 (or more like first 50 ) hiyo kesho tupate picha ya msimamo wako binafsi kwa sasa ili tuweze tabiri hii miaka mitano itakuaje..

 

[Kusadikika]

Vote of thanks to you MM. CCM is likely to employ such tacts or even worse ones you can imagine. But this time is different. I can see it from the villages where CCM commended a lot of respect, but today it is regarded as exploiter. This time in 2015 it will be the people who will defete the army. Thanks for the CHADEMA's Motto "PEOPLES' POWER!" who cares about the army...Army people themselves are suffering, most of them can't make ends meet. And I can assure you MM, the Kikwete's Military Archtects did not train more on the strategies you have just mentioned but mostly trained in discepline "yes without questioning" they are not such clever. Even if they were it is not the country with the strongest army that became socially stable...again people have known "unfortunately" after a long time that these CCM men stopped at Political Independence straggle instead of taking a further step to Economic prosperity, this is what fails them. After all don't under-estimate CHADEMA's ability to survive any intimidations from CCM...this CHADEMA have some leaders from the oldest institutions in the world, they know what to do probably better than the army people. My greatest hope is in people. "I ask you to Believe, not in my ability to bring change but in your" B.H.Obama this is what I see in TZ today, The peoples' Power!. Thanks.

 

[Sungi]

The ruling part has been able to deflect with such military precision the political advances and gains made by CHADEMA during the General Elections on 31st October, 2010. Using well known military tactics CCM has been able to "return" fire and has put CHADEMA once again in total shock and in defensive positions. The ultimately goal of this strategy is not just to weaken CHADEMA right now but to absolutely annihilate it before 2015. CHADEMA stands as the greatest threat to CCM political dominance and clout in the nation. CHADEMA then must be destroyed at whatever cost.




We have to understand that one of the advantages of CCM is that it is run by a number of ex-military personel (especially at the Central Committee) such as Lt. Jakaya Kikwete, Lt. Yusuph Makamba, Col. Abdulrahman Kinana, Capt. George Mkuchika, and Capt. John Chiligati. You will see that the five ex-military offices hold positions of strategic significance a.k.a attack positions. Compared to this Chadema at its highest ranks no one has any formal military training beside the National Service experience. Not Mbowe, Zitto, Slaa, Mnyika, or Lissu etc who can see things from a military perspective like the other side does. This is one of the biggest disadvantage that Chadema has compared to CCM.

After a successful deflection of the “walk-out” which has left some people confused to what actually is the current position of CHADEMA on recognizing Kikwete’s win the next step for CCM is to return CHADEMA to its proper political position – the disgruntled perpetual opposition. Although CHADEMA came out of the election a winner CHADEMA has miserably failed to articulate this victory to the mass. They have not even been able to organize a rally to give their supporters an opportunity to celebrate the gains they have made. It is as if CHADEMA itself believe that it failed or did not do well at all: Is that so?

• CHADEMA Presidential candidate Dr. Slaa gained 2.2 million votes; no other opposition candidate before him ever reached the 2 million mark.
• CHADEMA gained more MPs than ever before. You have to remember that it only had 6 (if I’m correct) constituent MPs, right now it has over 24 and I’ll argue if they challenge certain CCM’s victories they might gain about 7 more seats.
• CHADEMA gained more Special Seats than ever before
• CHADEMA was able to retain all of the sits gained during 2005 expect one
• While in 2005 CHADEMA only had 3 councils to run this time it has 12 of them! Some of them being the most prominent such as Mbeya Urban, Mwanza, Musoma and Arusha urban!
• CHADEMA was finally able to penetrate Dar-es-Salaam one of the most difficult political regions in Tanzania. And I believe the Segerea seat will ultimately come back to CHADEMA.

Now, it is sad that CHADEMA believe that CCM “won” to the point they can not even celebrate their own victory. It is sad that going a month after the historic election CHADEMA have not organized a single pep rally for their supporters to appreciate how they voters came through for them. It is indeed disheartening to see that the people who campaigned so much to have people come and vote for them are now back to their individualistic and egoistical mentality and those parochial politics. They could not stand together for a month, shameful!

So from a military standpoint CCM can not and will not allow any further advances by CHADEMA towards or in 2015. The only mission for CCM’s strategists right now is to push back CHADEMA with a vengeance. They can not allow any further advances. So far I can see a meticulous campaign to weaken CHADEMA.

But all this is good for CCM and its tacticians. We know CHADEMA can not and will never have a unified position on matters of principle; we know for a fact that they can not stand together and put a rational defense of their positions without finding themselves in such notable disagreement, and we know there are so much internal wrangling that it is almost impossible for the Chadema’s top brass to function towards victory in 2015. Well, CCM must seize this moment and will in fact seize it. How will this happen?

I believe the best way to course more discontent and division within CHADEMA and weaken it from within is to offer them 2 ministerial positions. I don’t see any rational possibility of giving them full cabinet positions because they ministers will have to participate in cabinet deliberations but I can see two Deputy Ministers. But, I will not be surprised if one of them is indeed a full cabinet position.

Once these offers are made CHADEMA must come out and say if they would take the positions or if they would reject them. What does a taking ministerial position mean for CHADEMA?

Two camps will emerge and I totally foresee that they two camps will be in the same line as those who opposed or supported the walk out.

Take Them Camp – This camp will argue for national healing, reconciliation and unity CHADEMA must take the ministerial positions. It will argue that the president has shown he is willing to work with all people and all parties and rejecting them it will be disrespectful of the president. So, this group will whole heartedly jump to take the offered positions.

Don’t Take Them Camp – This camp will urge the appointed MPs to refuse the positions based on the argument that by taking the positions it will be legitimizing Kikwete’s victory and will remove in perpetuity the argument that the election was not as free and fair. They will argue that by agreeing to take ministerial positions in CCM’s administration will be like an endorsement of CCM’s election platform. CHADEMA MPs must not work to implement CCMs manifesto.

The two positions will divide the supporters and CHADEMA members in the same line of reasoning and therefore weaken the party more. It will be more troubling if the appointed MPs from CHADEMA will go to be sworn in as ministers/deputies regardless of the party’s directives or by saying “we put the nation’s interests first”.

CHADEMA will have to react swiftly and categorically to deflect that charm offensive when their MPs are named as potential ministers or deputies:

1. First by answering this question was the party consulted in the naming of its MPs or they too found out as the names were read in public. If the answer is NO then CHADEMA must directs its MPs to refuse the posts for they were not done in good faith. If the answer is YES then the party must say if it endorsed the appointments.
2. If the party had rejected the move by the President to name its MPs to ministerial positions then it should be categorical in pointing that out and direct its MPs to refuse the positions.
3. If the MPs are adamant in joining the CCM’s government then the Party in a compromise position must ask the president to allow the MPs to implement Chademas’ manifesto in their respective ministries. This will be very unlikely to be agreed. If the president refuses then the party must direct its MPs not to TAKE those positions.
4. If the MPs still want to take those positions then CHADEMA will have only one choice to make which will be to remove those MPs from party membership so that the president can nominate them MPs and give them the same positions and call for bi-elections in the respective constituencies to fill up the seats. In this last scenario which I believe might be the most likely to happen CHADEMA will win (by standing on principle), its appointed MPs will win (they will be named MPs and Ministers) and the President will win (by having the people from the opposition who he believes will help him implement his agenda only now they will be not from CHADEMA). But CCM will lose for no CHADEMA MP will take part in the cabinet.

Once this is resolved we have to sit down and wait for another assault on CHADEMA, its MPs, Members and supporters for we know for a fact CCM will not give up power without a fight and believe me fighting they will. Chadema will have to learn to think from a military strategic, they will have to answer one of the oldest military war questions - how does a small army defeat a well equipped, trained and financed army? Unless Chadema find the answer to this question they will not be able to defeat their political adversary and will find itself more than once in defensive positions like it finds itself now.

So the only way to bring unity, reconciliation and harmony in CHADEMA (as if that would be CCM"s interest) is NOT to offer any ministerial position to CHADEMA or its MPs. Wouldn't you agree?



MMM

I do not understand your correlation between the military credentials of the politicians you mention, i.e., the President and et al. and whatever political maneuvering they employ politically. I think you are giving them credit that they do not deserve! The political structure that is now fading of "chama kuchika hatumu" made these old timers to move from military officers to holding political portfolios.

The new MPs, especially from CHADEMA have the opportunity to show wananchi that they (wananchi) have the power to dictate their own fate. They are young, have international exposure and are highly educated. I hope that they do not fall into the usual trap that is summed up by the old adage "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely". If an MP is not doing what he or she was elected to do, he or she will loose come the next general election. It is a good start for realizing true democracy.

 

[Mtanganyika]

Wherever happen in few hours concern Tanzania government cabinet, i total respect this particular analysis that MM conducted.
After reading this peace, i came to conclusion that CCM are in war and i doubt if CDM knows that.

CDM have a huge potential to prosper, but the conflict within the party detour all possibilities.

 

[Tom]

MM hao CCM licha ya ubabe na ufisadi, hawana uwezo mkubwa kiasi hicho la sivyo wangeweza kabisa kuibadili nchi iwe bora toka zamani. CCM walishalewa madaraka ya chama kushika hatamu na sasa kilichobaki ni kuwazika tu, sasa hivi wapo shimoni nusu, fika 2015 wamezikwa kabisa.

Walibakia vijini lakini nao wameshaanza ona CCM si chochote.