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Ministerial Positions? - A Tactical Assault on Chadema

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Mzee Mwanakijiji, Nov 23, 2010.

  1. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

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    Nov 23, 2010
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    The ruling part has been able to deflect with such military precision the political advances and gains made by CHADEMA during the General Elections on 31st October, 2010. Using well known military tactics CCM has been able to "return" fire and has put CHADEMA once again in total shock and in defensive positions. The ultimately goal of this strategy is not just to weaken CHADEMA right now but to absolutely annihilate it before 2015. CHADEMA stands as the greatest threat to CCM political dominance and clout in the nation. CHADEMA then must be destroyed at whatever cost.




    We have to understand that one of the advantages of CCM is that it is run by a number of ex-military personel (especially at the Central Committee) such as Lt. Jakaya Kikwete, Lt. Yusuph Makamba, Col. Abdulrahman Kinana, Capt. George Mkuchika, and Capt. John Chiligati. You will see that the five ex-military offices hold positions of strategic significance a.k.a attack positions. Compared to this Chadema at its highest ranks no one has any formal military training beside the National Service experience. Not Mbowe, Zitto, Slaa, Mnyika, or Lissu etc who can see things from a military perspective like the other side does. This is one of the biggest disadvantage that Chadema has compared to CCM.

    After a successful deflection of the "walk-out" which has left some people confused to what actually is the current position of CHADEMA on recognizing Kikwete's win the next step for CCM is to return CHADEMA to its proper political position – the disgruntled perpetual opposition. Although CHADEMA came out of the election a winner CHADEMA has miserably failed to articulate this victory to the mass. They have not even been able to organize a rally to give their supporters an opportunity to celebrate the gains they have made. It is as if CHADEMA itself believe that it failed or did not do well at all: Is that so?


    • CHADEMA Presidential candidate Dr. Slaa gained 2.2 million votes; no other opposition candidate before him ever reached the 2 million mark.
    • CHADEMA gained more MPs than ever before. You have to remember that it only had 6 (if I'm correct) constituent MPs, right now it has over 24 and I'll argue if they challenge certain CCM's victories they might gain about 7 more seats.
    • CHADEMA gained more Special Seats than ever before
    • CHADEMA was able to retain all of the sits gained during 2005 expect one
    • While in 2005 CHADEMA only had 3 councils to run this time it has 12 of them! Some of them being the most prominent such as Mbeya Urban, Mwanza, Musoma and Arusha urban!
    • CHADEMA was finally able to penetrate Dar-es-Salaam one of the most difficult political regions in Tanzania. And I believe the Segerea seat will ultimately come back to CHADEMA.

    Now, it is sad that CHADEMA believe that CCM "won" to the point they can not even celebrate their own victory. It is sad that going a month after the historic election CHADEMA have not organized a single pep rally for their supporters to appreciate how they voters came through for them. It is indeed disheartening to see that the people who campaigned so much to have people come and vote for them are now back to their individualistic and egoistical mentality and those parochial politics. They could not stand together for a month, shameful!

    So from a military standpoint CCM can not and will not allow any further advances by CHADEMA towards or in 2015. The only mission for CCM's strategists right now is to push back CHADEMA with a vengeance. They can not allow any further advances. So far I can see a meticulous campaign to weaken CHADEMA.

    But all this is good for CCM and its tacticians. We know CHADEMA can not and will never have a unified position on matters of principle; we know for a fact that they can not stand together and put a rational defense of their positions without finding themselves in such notable disagreement, and we know there are so much internal wrangling that it is almost impossible for the Chadema's top brass to function towards victory in 2015. Well, CCM must seize this moment and will in fact seize it. How will this happen?

    I believe the best way to course more discontent and division within CHADEMA and weaken it from within is to offer them 2 ministerial positions. I don't see any rational possibility of giving them full cabinet positions because they ministers will have to participate in cabinet deliberations but I can see two Deputy Ministers. But, I will not be surprised if one of them is indeed a full cabinet position.

    Once these offers are made CHADEMA must come out and say if they would take the positions or if they would reject them. What does a taking ministerial position mean for CHADEMA?

    Two camps will emerge and I totally foresee that they two camps will be in the same line as those who opposed or supported the walk out.

    Take Them Camp – This camp will argue for national healing, reconciliation and unity CHADEMA must take the ministerial positions. It will argue that the president has shown he is willing to work with all people and all parties and rejecting them it will be disrespectful of the president. So, this group will whole heartedly jump to take the offered positions.

    Don't Take Them Camp – This camp will urge the appointed MPs to refuse the positions based on the argument that by taking the positions it will be legitimizing Kikwete's victory and will remove in perpetuity the argument that the election was not as free and fair. They will argue that by agreeing to take ministerial positions in CCM's administration will be like an endorsement of CCM's election platform. CHADEMA MPs must not work to implement CCMs manifesto.

    The two positions will divide the supporters and CHADEMA members in the same line of reasoning and therefore weaken the party more. It will be more troubling if the appointed MPs from CHADEMA will go to be sworn in as ministers/deputies regardless of the party's directives or by saying "we put the nation's interests first".

    CHADEMA will have to react swiftly and categorically to deflect that charm offensive when their MPs are named as potential ministers or deputies:


    1. First by answering this question was the party consulted in the naming of its MPs or they too found out as the names were read in public. If the answer is NO then CHADEMA must directs its MPs to refuse the posts for they were not done in good faith. If the answer is YES then the party must say if it endorsed the appointments.
    2. If the party had rejected the move by the President to name its MPs to ministerial positions then it should be categorical in pointing that out and direct its MPs to refuse the positions.
    3. If the MPs are adamant in joining the CCM's government then the Party in a compromise position must ask the president to allow the MPs to implement Chademas' manifesto in their respective ministries. This will be very unlikely to be agreed. If the president refuses then the party must direct its MPs not to TAKE those positions.
    4. If the MPs still want to take those positions then CHADEMA will have only one choice to make which will be to remove those MPs from party membership so that the president can nominate them MPs and give them the same positions and call for bi-elections in the respective constituencies to fill up the seats. In this last scenario which I believe might be the most likely to happen CHADEMA will win (by standing on principle), its appointed MPs will win (they will be named MPs and Ministers) and the President will win (by having the people from the opposition who he believes will help him implement his agenda only now they will be not from CHADEMA). But CCM will lose for no CHADEMA MP will take part in the cabinet.

    Once this is resolved we have to sit down and wait for another assault on CHADEMA, its MPs, Members and supporters for we know for a fact CCM will not give up power without a fight and believe me fighting they will. Chadema will have to learn to think from a military strategic, they will have to answer one of the oldest military war questions - how does a small army defeat a well equipped, trained and financed army? Unless Chadema find the answer to this question they will not be able to defeat their political adversary and will find itself more than once in defensive positions like it finds itself now.

    So the only way to bring unity, reconciliation and harmony in CHADEMA (as if that would be CCM"s interest) is NOT to offer any ministerial position to CHADEMA or its MPs. Wouldn't you agree?



    MMM
     
  2. Companero

    Companero Platinum Member

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    Sataranji ya Kijeshi!
     
  3. S

    Silas A.K JF-Expert Member

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    mkuu Mwanakijiji,well researched analysis.Naamini Zitto atatajwa kwenye baraza na he will jump the ship! kwakuwa kijana maamuzi yake mengi ni ya utatanishi sana.
     
  4. Nyani Ngabu

    Nyani Ngabu Platinum Member

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    Mi naona CCM mnawapa ujiko hata wasiostahili kwani sioni lolote extraordinary walilofanya. Ni CHADEMA wenyewe tu ndiyo wamejiingiza mguu mdomoni kwa kubwatabwa ovyo ovyo
     
  5. Ndahani

    Ndahani JF-Expert Member

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    Mara nyingine ni ngumu kuzielewa hizi siasa za bongo.Lolote linawezekana.
     
  6. U

    Uwezo Tunao JF-Expert Member

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    Mwanakijiji, many thanks for this analytical piece. It is very ANALYTICAL, and so informative to smart minds.

    However, STRATEGICALLY speaking, upto this minute we write it is CHADEMA that HOLDS THE GOLDEN KEYS to a Kikwete LEGACY as the four-phase President of our country. As such, it would only be FOOLHARDY to aim an assault at a MAN who is warmly CARRYING your little baby around his arms. Any bullet meant to kill him MUST equally kill the innocent baby. The world would be left to wonder what kind of generals are these.

    Indeed, much cannot be divulged at all at this stage or media but one can imagine the restrictive options that CCM Rostam Aziz still hold to the hour. For your information, several disatisfied members in (1) the CCM Nyerere Camp, and (2) CCM Yatima Camp are deep down into business finalising a the Mother-of-all GREATEST assaults at the very core of (3) the CCM Academia Camp which is currently waging a lone war against the public
    .

    Best brains of this country are badly afoot on the realisation of CHADEMA's primary goals on Constitutional Overhaul and not mere political positions of leadership. Don't anyone wonder why CHADEMA is not even bothered at pressing for positions todate??? Watch this space, much surprises are on the way depending on how CCM Academia reacts!!!
     
  7. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

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    Omega.. umefanya nini tena?? LOL.. believe me.. underestimate CCM at your own peril. CCM walizembea sana this past five years strategically speaking na wamelipa gharama ya kutosha tu. Sidhani hata kidogo wataenda 2015 kwa udhaifu waliokuwa nao kwa sababu wakianguka point 10 tu kwenye uchaguzi wa Rais guess wako wapi?
     
  8. Ndibalema

    Ndibalema JF-Expert Member

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    I bet CCM will do exactly wat u predict.
    They will apoint some chadema MPs (including Zitto) and suddenly, chadema leaders will be in dilemma whether to accept the post or not.
    Some will oppose and some will propose. That will be the first and very big fragment to chadema.
    We will have two chademas.
    And finaly ccm will going to have a steep slope to 2015 larry.
    This is the advantage of having ex military officers.
     
  9. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

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    Mwanakijiji great analysis
    Kuna comment nilitaka kutoa lakini naona nashindwa ku dare ku talk openly.
     
  10. Ndahani

    Ndahani JF-Expert Member

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    Usisite kusema as long humtukani wa kumdhalilisha mtu. Unajua taratibu itasaidia kujifunza ku voice out our opinion bila kuvunja sheria. Ukimya wa mda mrefu umetufanya tukaacha kuongea baadhi ya mambo ambayo tunayalipia kwa gharama kubwa
     
  11. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

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    You mean CCM will try to CUF CHADEMA? My advice to CHADEMA: do not fall into the CUF trap. Let the dead bury their dead.
     
  12. M

    Moelex23 JF-Expert Member

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    Mkuu Mwanakijiji, Kwanza HONGERA from the bottom of my heart kwa kucover scenario zote ambazo CHADEMA will have to take kudeal na hii Nuclear attack from CCM.

    Zitto is a big Liability, na Chadema Must not HESITATE even for a second to cancel his membership if he accepts a position from JK bila JK kuconsult na leadership ya CHADEMA. Yaani The moment Zitto anakubali appointment kabla hajaapishwa CC ya Chadema ikae na kumvua Uanachama ASAP, then tutadeal na negative reactions ambazo zitachukua at most 6 months, lakini CHADEMA watarecover in time for 2015.

    Huyu Kichwa maji na mwenye kiherehere itakuwa bora zaidi aondoke sasa hivi kwa sababu hata asipopewa huo unaibu this time, I can not see 5 yrs zitakwisha bila kuzidi kuivuruga CHADEMA.

    Naomba Dr Slaa, Mbowe na CC nzima wasikubali kuua Chama sababu ya mtu mmoja. Ukishaingia kwenye serikali, utaweza vipi kuisema CCM kushindwa kuleta maendeleo wakati waziri ni Chadema Mbr?? Si CCM watasema tumeshindwa wote CCM na Chadema kuleta maendeleo??


    ZITTO has to Go, this might just be a Blessing in Disguise Kupata nafasi nzuri ya kuondoa HII CANCER CHADEMA.
     
  13. RayB

    RayB JF-Expert Member

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    Kwanza kwa sasa yuko kwenye visit binafsi hukoooo Malaysia nadhani
     
  14. m

    matawi JF-Expert Member

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    Vey Valid point Ndibalema, ccm wako very strategic kuivuruga chadema and anything can be done. It just depend on chadema mps spirit because its very difficult to know what other human being feels. Tuombe Mungu
     
  15. Mzee Mwanakijiji

    Mzee Mwanakijiji Platinum Member

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    This is not even about Zitto.. for Zitto is good being the Asst Opposition leader and CCM knows that so.. ningekuwa CCM siwezi kumpa Zitto offer ya Uwaziri! Kumpa Zitto is too predictable! wape wengine halafu Zitto na Mbowe na watu walio nyuma wao wajikuta wanachukua opposing sides. It is not about Zitto at all kwa upande wa CCM this is about the attack on CHADEMA.
     
  16. Nyani Ngabu

    Nyani Ngabu Platinum Member

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    Yeah kwa vile Zitto makes it easy for CCM kwa sababu ya huo mdomo wake na kiherehere na kimbelembele chake....

    Ukiwa na Zitto kama asst. opposition leader huhitaji hata talking points....lol....
     
  17. M

    MpendaTz JF-Expert Member

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    Mwanakijiji, I can bet CCM does not have the b***s to include a Chadema in the cabinet. If they have its going to be only one, and one who was actually not a true Chadema! will have revealed his true colors. CCm would rather disable than take that bastard back to the party so openly.
    You should understand how many matters go under cover and unpublicised in the inner circle of that group of elites and families. If it was so easy Chenge would have been enjoying his second or third year somewhere unknown, or Balali would have been here with us. The list goes on and on...
    The most on offer is "waziri kivuli"
     
  18. Nicky82

    Nicky82 JF-Expert Member

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    I wish this not to happen MM, because it will be a big test to CDM.
    And if it happen, CDM will have to tell their MP not to accept the nomination on the bases that the party were not consulted before the appointment, as I am forced to believe that before February 2011, CDM will have officially acknoldege Kikwete's win. Therefore if they refuse on the bases of not acknowledging JK's win, when times come this action will hit them back the moment they declare to acknoledge JK's win
     
  19. Mtazamaji

    Mtazamaji JF-Expert Member

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    Nimeona Kuna Post inasema Lowasa ameanalyse kuwa vijana wengi wanazdi kuichukia CCM. Huo ni ukweli. Probality ya New voters wengi kuchagua CCM inazidi kupungua. Sijui by 2015 tutakuwa na jumla ya wapiga kura wapya wangapi.????

    Nilichocheka ni kwenye hiyo Post ni Kuwa Loawasa ansema vijana wanaichukia CCM sababu kuu ni ajira.Ndo utagundua wanasiasa hawapendi ukweli. Hivi Loawasa mchapakazi hajui kashfa za ufisadi zimecost CCM kuliko hata ajira.

    Kwa maono kama ya Lowasa inabidi watumie mbinu za kijeshi zaidi kama ulivyosema mwanakijiji
     
  20. Nyambala

    Nyambala JF-Expert Member

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    Mkjj I beg to differ, CCM and especially muungwana will neva appoint CDM MP for such posts. Afterall nafasi zenyewe ni too few and there is so many CCM bigwigs who in eitherway contributed alot to the re-election of muungwana.

    With the egoistic manners these guys have, they simply believe CDM can easily be brought down just the same way as NCCR, TLP or CUF in mainland.

    Mark my words that will just neva happen.
     
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