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'Mini- budget' likely

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Invisible, Jan 11, 2010.

  1. Invisible

    Invisible Admin Staff Member

    #1
    Jan 11, 2010
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    • Govt in talks with the World Bank in a bid to close the possible financing shortfall
    By The Citizen Reporter
    Jan 10, 2010

    The government may be forced to seek supplementary financing for its Sh9.1 trillion 2009/10 Budget due to some predictable and unforeseen economic difficulties, The Citizen can reveal today.

    According to information obtained from independent sources, a review carried out by experts recently had identified some of the obstacles hampering the achievement of budget targets.

    An International Monetary Fund (IMF) review of the economy, the sources said, had established that achieving improved tax compliance would not be easy in the context of a slowing economy, and difficulties in reining in tax exemptions.

    The IMF also found that foreign financing appeared high relative to current commitments, and the contingency reserve was limited, given the potential need to respond to food shortages or fix key infrastructure.

    This, it was found, had forced the country to hold discussions with the World Bank, with a view to finding ways to plug the financing gaps, according to the IMF document released last month, and a copy of which was made available to The Citizen. However, we could not immediately establish the outcome of the negotiations.

    And yesterday in Dar es Salaam, President Jakaya Kikwete hinted at more problems, when he told members of the diplomatic corps that the El Nino rains had already caused immense damage estimated at Sh6.7 billion, and the government would have to seek funds from other sources to fix the ruined infrastructure.

    Addressing diplomats at a sherry party he threw at the State House, President Kikwete said it was, however, "very unfortunate" that the rains had come too late to salvage the withering crops.

    "The El Nino rains are set to become a major destructive force on our infrastructure. Already in the two weeks of rains since Christmas, the damage done to the central railway line and roads in Morogoro and Dodoma regions requires some Sh6.7 billion to repair and rebuild," he said.

    The government, he added, would have to raise the money within the existing Budget, meaning that allocations to various ministries and government departments may be cut to raise the funds.

    "We are at a loss about how many more times shall we have to do this if the rains persist at this pace until the end of rainy season at the end of May," he said

    But he assured the diplomats that the government would have to shelve some of its plans and programmes or omit others altogether to enable the country to respond to the emergencies.

    "Determining which ones to sacrifice will be another big headache. But, having to do this again after the emergency economic rescue programme, means major reversals in our economic fortunes and projections," he said, pleading for help from donors.

    Apart from damage to infrastructure, the raging floods have also claimed a number of lives.

    Thousands have been displaced and property damage after floodwaters either destroyed or swamped their houses, notably in Kilosa district in Morogoro and Kongwa and Mpwapwa districts of Dodoma.

    Last September, mudslides in Same district, Kilimanjaro Region killed more than 20 people, and destroyed property, whose value has yet to be determined.

    According to the IMF document, the government has been in talks with the World Bank for possible supplemental Budget financing.

    The document indicates that the discussions were aimed at seeking ways to largely close possible financing shortfalls, estimated at around 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

    According to the Bank of Tanzania's economic review for last November, the GDP stood at Sh25.3 trillion.

    This suggests that the financing shortfall (estimated at around 0.8 per cent of GDP) could be about Sh202 billion.

    The gap might have increased by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) collection shortfall amounting to a whopping Sh100 billion, which was exclusively revealed by our sister paper, the Sunday Citizen, in November.

    The loss was recorded in the first three months of the current financial year, sparking concern that the government might fail to meet some of its financial obligations.

    The taxman did not meet the income targets for July, August and September; with impeccable sources indicating that the situation was not any better in November either.

    The poor performance means that the government may find it increasingly difficult to finance the 2009/2010 Budget, should the trend in this first quarter of this financial year persist.

    However, Finance minister Mustafa Mkulo appeared to downplay the issue when contacted by the Sunday Citizen for comment, saying that the three-month shortfall should not raise any alarm.

    He said it was a normal trend during the early months of the financial year, and gave an assurance that government plans would not be in jeopardy.

    Given the precarious situation, further plans by IMF are to review the fiscal situation carefully by mid-year, and the authorities indicate that in the event of shortfalls, low-priority expenditure would be curtailed, notes part of the 46-page document.

    "A comprehensive public financial management reform programme is in place, but budget planning and execution could be strengthened further to ensure value for Money," said the document in appraisal of the government Budget.

    The IMF noted substantial risks to the outlook for both growth and inflation. The uncertainty on recovery in global demands, drought, the strain on the existing infrastructure, including the introduction of rolling electricity blackouts in October, were cited as major factors that could jeopardise economic recovery efforts.

    The Sh9.1 trillion Budget announced by Finance minister Mkulo in June last year was targeted to invigorate agriculture, boost education, livestock, health, infrastructure, tourism and manufacturing sectors.

    Education, at Sh1,743.9 billion, received the lion's share of the national Budget followed by infrastructure (Sh1,096 billion), health (Sh963 billion), agriculture (Sh666.9 billion) and water (Sh347.3 billion).

    Together with the Sh285.5 billion allocated for minerals and power sectors, this accounts for 64 per cent of the entire 2009/10 Budget.

    While the donors' contribution was pegged at 33.4 per cent, the TRA was tasked to collect Sh5.1 trillion to finance the Budget.


    Sina hakika kama hii tulishaipitia tulio wengi, binafsi nimeisoma nikabaki nawaza tuuuu...
     
  2. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

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    Tatizo Budget yetu inaandaliwa na maofisa budget ambao wanakopi na kupaste ile ya mwaka uliopita bila kuzingatia mahitaji na focus ya mwaka husika, wanatumia standard mfu, ambazo kitaalamu hazileti majibu murua, inakuwaje budget inacollapse baada ya miezi sita, ni aibu sana kwa wasomi wetu hasa mabwana uchumi ,mipango na fedha.
     
  3. Invisible

    Invisible Admin Staff Member

    #3
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    Kumbuka inavyotetewa Bungeni kwa mbwembwe nyingi kisiasa, failures zikianza kujitokeza inakuwa balaa kabisa!
     
  4. Idimi

    Idimi JF-Expert Member

    #4
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    Bro pole pole!
    Una uthibitisho usio na mawaa wa dai hilo lenye rangi nyekundu?
     
  5. Ibrah

    Ibrah JF-Expert Member

    #5
    Jan 11, 2010
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    Sasa kama si kweli mini budget zinatokea wapi? Hata kwenye kamati zetu za harusi huwa tunaweka 10 percent ya bajeti nzima kama contingecy (unforseen events) sasa wao wanashindwa nini wasitenge asilimia kadhaa kwenye budget kwa ajili contingencies?

    Vinginevyo utuambie kuwa Serikali yetu haijui ku-save, inatumia kila shilingi inayoingia mfukoni pale Hazina.
     
  6. Idimi

    Idimi JF-Expert Member

    #6
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    Sikatai suala la kuwa na contingency, lakini ukumbuke kwamba mashirika ya dini yalipewa misamaha baada ya bajeti kuandikwa, na kukawa na uwezekano finyu wa kurekebisha bajeti hiyo. Mapato ambayo yalikadiriwa kutoka katika misamaha ya mashirika ya dini ni sehemu ya hiyo nakisi! It's not the matter of copying and pasting the previous budget.
     
  7. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

    #7
    Jan 11, 2010
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    mfumo wa budget unaanzia kwenye ngazi za Idara za serikali kisha huwa kompiled kwenye ngazi ya Wizara kisha huwasilishwa Hazina kwenye ngazi yan kitaifa. sasa kama unatumia standard mfu bila kureview maana yake nikua utapata jumla ama matokeo yenye mashaka na utata mkubwa, budget hiyo ukitaka kujua inakua pasted kutoka le ilio pita tazama namna vitabu vinavyokua na makosa ya kusahau kudelete baadhi ya takwimu ambazo hazihitajiki.

    Jambo la pili kama kuna kureview hizo standard na mahitaji kufuatia matakwa na mwaka unafuatwa hakupaswi kutokea anguko la budget hadi kuhitaji support ya minbudget..

    sasa kwanini nakuambia wanapaste budget hizo, wakati mwaka ukikaribia kumalizika maafisa mipango wa serikali hujichimbia kwenye maeneo ya mbali na maofisi yao kwa mafano Arusha , Morogoro ili kupata utulivu, sasa nimewahi kuwatembelea baadhi ya waandaa budget , kweli unakuta katika siku 21 walizolipwa kucompile wanatumia labda siku tano zingine huwa ni kustarehe na kuburudika, sasa wanachofanya ni kuangalia anguko la thamani ya shiling katika kipindi hicho let say ni 7% wanachofanya unachukua tarakimu za mwaka uliopita unazidisha mara 1.07 kisha figure unayoipata inakuwezesha kutoka na jawabu mfu kuwa ni mahitaji ya mwaka ujao . kuna vituko vingi wee acha tu.
     
  8. Ibrah

    Ibrah JF-Expert Member

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    Idimi, usitetee kutowajibika kwa Wataalamu na Serikali yetu, si wangetafuta njia mbadala? Hivi hujui kuwa kodi ya VAT ilipunguzwa hadi asilimia 18 kutoka asilimia 20? Wangerejesha ikarudi asilimia 20 nani angelalamika? Hadi leo mini najiuliza na kushangaa bila kuwa na majibu kwa nini Serikali iliamua kupunguza VAT wakati huu ni mwaka wa matumizi makubwa kutokana na Uchaguzi na wakati huo huo bado tunategemea Wafadhili. Badala ya kufikiria namna ya kupunguza utegemezi ati tunajipunguzia kodi= tuendelee kuwa tegemezi!
     
  9. O

    Omumura JF-Expert Member

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    Jan 12, 2010
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    Bila kutilia mashaka yoyote, hiki ni kipindi kingine cha ulaji kwa wale walobarikiwa na shetani na wasoona haya kwa umaskini uliokithiri wa nchi hii.
     
  10. Recta

    Recta JF-Expert Member

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    Kuna matumizi makubwa sana yanakayofanyika mwaka huu wa fedha.

    Kumekuwa na uchaguzi wa serikali za mitaa na mwaka huu kuna uchaguzi mkuu. Maandalizi ya chaguzi hizo zote yanafanyika katika kipindi cha mwaka huu wa Bajeti. Maana haiwezekani kuanza kujiandaa katika kipindi cha mwaka 2010/2011.

    Vile vile kumekuwa na majanga mbalimbali ambayo yameikumba nchi, ikiwemo mabomu ya Mbagala, na sasa mafuriko (El-nino).

    Inachoweza kuwa kimetokea, pamoja na punguzo la kodi ni matumizi mabaya ya fedha iliyokuwa imetengwa. Kumbuka manunuzi ya magari ya uchaguzi ambayo ni hakika kwa kiasi kikubwa pesa imetoka serikalini. Kuna safari za ajabu ajabu, semina na mengine mengi ambayo yanachangia kupungua kwa uwezo wa serikali kabla ya muda.

    Ila yote hiyo inasababishwa na mipango mibovu na usimamizi duni wa pesa za serikali.
     
  11. J

    JokaKuu Platinum Member

    #11
    Jan 12, 2010
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    ..JK keshapata kisingizio cha kutokutimiza ahadi alizotoa wakati wa kampeni.

    ..halafu utasikia anasafiri nje ya nchi kutafuta wafadhili wa kutusaidia kutokana na maafa ya mvua.
     
  12. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

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    jokaKuu,
    Neno fiscal responsibility halimo kabisa kwenye vocabulary ya Mwungwana.
     
  13. Mambo Jambo

    Mambo Jambo JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Jan 12, 2010
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    Hapa kuna maswali mengi sana ya kujiuliza:-

    0. Msamaha wa kodi kwa mashirika ya dini.
    1. 18% VAT
    2. 6.7bil so far el-nino ( Na hii bado inaendelea mpaka May)
    3. Uchaguzi Serikali za mitaa
    4. Magari 250 + taxes
    5.Uchaguzi mkuu 2010
    6. Campaign za 2010

    Maswali ni mengi sana..halafu imebakia miezi 5 tuanze mwaka mwingine wa serikali 2010/2011.
     
  14. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

    #14
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    Mimi nilisema hizi budgets michezo ya redio tu.

    Sintashangaa nikisikia mini budget nayo ikahitaji mini budget yake, tuna uchaguzi after all mwaka huu, if you get my drift.
     
  15. O

    Orkesumet Member

    #15
    Jan 12, 2010
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    kuna wakati serikali ilisema iko tayari to "bail out" makampuni yaliyoathirika na mtikisiko wa uchumi. je yalikuwa maneno ya kujipendekeza au kujigamba kwa mataifa mengine kuwa bongo tuko juu. kama serikali haikutumia hayo mafungu si vyema basi wakahamishia fungu hilo kwenye maafa?
     
  16. Kiranga

    Kiranga JF-Expert Member

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    Si muungwana alisema hakuna atakachofanya differently?
     
  17. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

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    ndo maana naamini budget yetu haina focus yakinifu, haina macho , inatenbea kizani.
     
  18. Idimi

    Idimi JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Jan 13, 2010
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    Sawa. Sasa tutatueje kadhia zote hizi na uongozi tulio nao?
     
  19. nguvumali

    nguvumali JF Bronze Member

    #19
    Jan 13, 2010
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    jambo moja dhahiri ni kua lazima kuna watu wanapaswa kuwajibika kwa kushindwa kufanya kazi, wachumi pale wizara ya Fedha na uchumi lazima wawajibike kwa kuanzia na kamishna wa uchumi, washauri wa uchumi lazima wawajibishwe pale Ikulu maana wanahatarisha ustawi wa taifa hili.
    Mara nyingi mzee Lipumba amekua akitoa tathmini yake kila baada ya budget kupita, sasa ukimsikiliza utadhani anajadili siasa, lakini mwisho wa siku mambo huja kama alivyoonya, yule bwana ni mchumi kwelikweli...alisema "HII BUDGET Haifiki popote nawaambia " akatoa sababu lukuki, nani anajali.
    lazima kuanzishwe kitengo cha Intellegensia ya uchumi , hawa watawajibika mojakwa moja na kubuni na kupambana na vita na hekaheka za uchumi, hapa wataingizwa wachumi waliobobea, watu makini , sasa tutaweza kuona nnchi ikishine tena, lazima watawala wawe na utashi wa kweli kuwezesha maswala haya otherwise tutahangaika na vijibudget hivi uchwara visivyo na macho.
     
  20. SMU

    SMU JF-Expert Member

    #20
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    Kimantiki unasema hivi: "Budget hupelekwa bungeni ili ipitishwe na bunge". Mimi naamini Budget inapelekwa bungeni kujadiliwa na hatimaye kupitishwa kama wabunge wanaikubali. Endapo kuna vitu wabunge hawakubali, serikali hutakiwa kufanya marekebisho kwenye budget hiyo. Serikali bado ipo accountable kwenye hayo mabadiliko hata kama ni wabunge ndio waliyoyataka!

    Sasa ndo kusema marekebisho yaliyofanywa na serikali baada ya wabunge kukataa kufuta misamaha ya kodi kwa mashirika ya dini hayakuwa makini!
     
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