Ab-Titchaz
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With a system designed for status quo, Ruto had better start reforming IEBC
By MAINA KIAI
Posted Thursday, August 8 2013 at 19:25
Because one week is a long time in politics, most pre-election coalition agreements are for one term. Thus the 2002 deal between Mwai Kibaki's Narc and Raila Odinga's LDP - which Kibaki later reneged on - and Raila's own pact with Kalonzo Musyoka.
It was true too between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in 1997 in the UK, which Tony Blair also reneged on.
So it is fair to assume that the Jubilee deal between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto is for one term. If it is, and given Kenyatta's very early indications that he will be going for a second term, Ruto had better start looking to change and reform the IEBC well before 2017.
Much depends on what happens with the ICC and his crimes against humanity charges. If he is convicted then this is all moot.
But if he is acquitted, or the case is unable to proceed because witnesses disappear or get cold feet, or both the suspects decide not to cooperate with the ICC, we could well witness a battle royal for the presidency similar to 1997.
For William Ruto is shaping up to be the next big political colossus in Kenya, following Jomo Kenyatta, Tom Mboya, Daniel Moi and Raila Odinga.
Already he is the "go-to" guy to resolve tough issues. He was first off the block dealing with disaffected governors over the regime's back-tracking on the constitutional transfer of powers to counties.
And he has been desperately working to ensure the Kalenjin community remains coalesced around him as undisputed king, playing the same game of tribal numbers for votes.
He has handled the teachers' strike looking more reasonable than Education Secretary Jacob Kaimenyi, and spends a good deal of time focusing on areas that have been "Corded" as he tries to inherit their support. But this comes at a price.
Leaks, clearly from high up, about wanting to upgrade a brand new house and chartering a plane when he could have used Kenya Airways, aim to reduce his status. And he is acutely aware that it will be Kenyatta's handlers and inner core that are most anxious about him, knowing that they will certainly lose their power and privilege were he to become president.
So to make a fair stab, he should be leading efforts to reform and change the current IEBC set-up for if we go to the next elections as is, he stands no chance.
This is the IEBC that can't tell who is registered or not, giving different figures for registration each time it is asked including the latest one to Parliament. And if registered voters are a moving target, rest assured that manipulation will happen, with or without a grand plan.
This is what Africa's most respected election commission, the Ghana commission, is currently in the crosshairs for as it defends its handling of Ghana's December 2012 elections.
Like in Kenya, registered voters in Ghana were a moving target, and the cross-examination of the erstwhile respected chairperson, has revealed a lack of administrative accuracy, inattention to detail, and lots of confusion.
Pundits in Ghana say that the evidence has shown that the process was deeply flawed and the question is whether their Supreme Court will find this weighty enough to change the results.
It is the IEBC that refused to use technology to verify results taking us back to 2002 with manual tallying and verification as its ideal. Remember, technology did not fail. It was made to fail.
For how can anyone in Kenya send uncharged laptops and phones without the requisite back-up to areas it knows have no electricity?
And as we are seeing from evidence in petitions against all sides, it is remarkably easy to manipulate election results from the ground to the top.
With all this, would Ruto believe he stands a chance against Kenyatta in a system designed to maintain status quo?
Mr Kiai is former chairman of Kenya National Commission on Human Rights.
With a system designed for status quo, Ruto had better start reforming IEBC - Opinion - nation.co.ke
By MAINA KIAI
Posted Thursday, August 8 2013 at 19:25
Because one week is a long time in politics, most pre-election coalition agreements are for one term. Thus the 2002 deal between Mwai Kibaki's Narc and Raila Odinga's LDP - which Kibaki later reneged on - and Raila's own pact with Kalonzo Musyoka.
It was true too between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in 1997 in the UK, which Tony Blair also reneged on.
So it is fair to assume that the Jubilee deal between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto is for one term. If it is, and given Kenyatta's very early indications that he will be going for a second term, Ruto had better start looking to change and reform the IEBC well before 2017.
Much depends on what happens with the ICC and his crimes against humanity charges. If he is convicted then this is all moot.
But if he is acquitted, or the case is unable to proceed because witnesses disappear or get cold feet, or both the suspects decide not to cooperate with the ICC, we could well witness a battle royal for the presidency similar to 1997.
For William Ruto is shaping up to be the next big political colossus in Kenya, following Jomo Kenyatta, Tom Mboya, Daniel Moi and Raila Odinga.
Already he is the "go-to" guy to resolve tough issues. He was first off the block dealing with disaffected governors over the regime's back-tracking on the constitutional transfer of powers to counties.
And he has been desperately working to ensure the Kalenjin community remains coalesced around him as undisputed king, playing the same game of tribal numbers for votes.
He has handled the teachers' strike looking more reasonable than Education Secretary Jacob Kaimenyi, and spends a good deal of time focusing on areas that have been "Corded" as he tries to inherit their support. But this comes at a price.
Leaks, clearly from high up, about wanting to upgrade a brand new house and chartering a plane when he could have used Kenya Airways, aim to reduce his status. And he is acutely aware that it will be Kenyatta's handlers and inner core that are most anxious about him, knowing that they will certainly lose their power and privilege were he to become president.
So to make a fair stab, he should be leading efforts to reform and change the current IEBC set-up for if we go to the next elections as is, he stands no chance.
This is the IEBC that can't tell who is registered or not, giving different figures for registration each time it is asked including the latest one to Parliament. And if registered voters are a moving target, rest assured that manipulation will happen, with or without a grand plan.
This is what Africa's most respected election commission, the Ghana commission, is currently in the crosshairs for as it defends its handling of Ghana's December 2012 elections.
Like in Kenya, registered voters in Ghana were a moving target, and the cross-examination of the erstwhile respected chairperson, has revealed a lack of administrative accuracy, inattention to detail, and lots of confusion.
Pundits in Ghana say that the evidence has shown that the process was deeply flawed and the question is whether their Supreme Court will find this weighty enough to change the results.
It is the IEBC that refused to use technology to verify results taking us back to 2002 with manual tallying and verification as its ideal. Remember, technology did not fail. It was made to fail.
For how can anyone in Kenya send uncharged laptops and phones without the requisite back-up to areas it knows have no electricity?
And as we are seeing from evidence in petitions against all sides, it is remarkably easy to manipulate election results from the ground to the top.
With all this, would Ruto believe he stands a chance against Kenyatta in a system designed to maintain status quo?
Mr Kiai is former chairman of Kenya National Commission on Human Rights.
With a system designed for status quo, Ruto had better start reforming IEBC - Opinion - nation.co.ke