Mambo yanyoendelea Tz yananikatisha tamaa sana. Mimi nipo nje ya nchi toka mwaka 2009, but nafuatilia sana mambo yanayoendelea huko through magazeti na humu kwenye JF. So bado nipo kwenye position ya kuelewa kinachoendelea nchini mwangu.
Kitu kinachoniuma sana ni mgao wa umeme na jinsi wanasiasa wetu wanavyoshughulikia suala hili. Naongelea wana siasa kwa vile katika mfumo wetu Tz wanasiasa wana nguvu zaidi kuliko watendaji, na most of watendaji wamegeuka kuwa wanasiasa.
Hivi mpaka sasa wakati tupo kwenye mgao since end of Nov, kuna mkakati gani wa kuondokana na kadhia hii? Nasema hivi kutokana na uhusiano uliopo kati ya matumizi ya umeme na maendeleo kama ninavonukuu paper hii ya Anjum Aqeel and Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt*,
" By applying techniques of co-integration and Hsiaos version of Granger
causality, the results infer that economic growth causes total energy
consumption. Economic growth also leads to growth in petroleum
consumption, while on the other hand, neither economic growth nor gas
consumption affect each other. However, in the power sector it has been
found that electricity consumption leads to economic growth without
feedback"
source :http://www.unescap.org/drpad/publication/journal_8_2/AQEEL.PDF
Nafikiri kila Mtanzania kwa sasa atakuwa anaona jinsi anavyoteseka/athirika na mgao wa umeme. Kwa wale wanaoishi mijini wanaweza kuona jinsi wananchi hasa wenye biashara ndogondogo/ajira isiyo rasmi wanavyo athirika na huu mgao. Sawa inawezekana ni tatizo ambalo lilikuwa nje ya uwezo wetu, but now tuna mkakati gani wa kulishughulikia?
Kwa nini wanasiasa wetu wanashupalia mamabo ya kamati za bunge as if hiyo ndio tatizo letu kwa sasa? Kwa nini hatusikii hata mtu mmoja akituambia mgao utaisha lini?
Mimi ninaamini mgao hautaisha Tanzania. Najua wengine hawawezi kunielewa bu facts ni kama hivi:
1) TZ tunazalisha 750MW na mahitaji ni zaidi ya 800 MW.
2) Demand inaongezeka by 14% ambayo ni 112 MW, hii ina maana lazima kwa mwaka tuongeze production by 150MW ili tuweze kutosheleza demand tuu
3) Ili kuwa na umeme usio na maatizo lazima tuwe na kitu kinachoitwa spinning reserve, huu ni umeme wa ziada baada ya demand ambao utatumika iwapo kuna power plant itapata matatizo. South Afrika wana spinning reserve ya 8000 MW (8 GW) na bado wana invest for the next 20 years.
Sasa sisi tutaendeleaje na kushupalia haya makamati ya bunge???????????Hakuna manufaa yoyote zaidi ya kujiandaa kwa uchaguzi wa 2015. Inauma hasa unapoona jirani yako anamwachisha mtoro wake shule kwa kukosa ada kuokana na biashara yake ya welding kuathiriwa na mgao wa umeme. Tanzania hatuma shida ya energy sources. una shida ya maadili ya kuileea nchi maendeleo.
Kitu kinachoniuma sana ni mgao wa umeme na jinsi wanasiasa wetu wanavyoshughulikia suala hili. Naongelea wana siasa kwa vile katika mfumo wetu Tz wanasiasa wana nguvu zaidi kuliko watendaji, na most of watendaji wamegeuka kuwa wanasiasa.
Hivi mpaka sasa wakati tupo kwenye mgao since end of Nov, kuna mkakati gani wa kuondokana na kadhia hii? Nasema hivi kutokana na uhusiano uliopo kati ya matumizi ya umeme na maendeleo kama ninavonukuu paper hii ya Anjum Aqeel and Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt*,
" By applying techniques of co-integration and Hsiaos version of Granger
causality, the results infer that economic growth causes total energy
consumption. Economic growth also leads to growth in petroleum
consumption, while on the other hand, neither economic growth nor gas
consumption affect each other. However, in the power sector it has been
found that electricity consumption leads to economic growth without
feedback"
source :http://www.unescap.org/drpad/publication/journal_8_2/AQEEL.PDF
Nafikiri kila Mtanzania kwa sasa atakuwa anaona jinsi anavyoteseka/athirika na mgao wa umeme. Kwa wale wanaoishi mijini wanaweza kuona jinsi wananchi hasa wenye biashara ndogondogo/ajira isiyo rasmi wanavyo athirika na huu mgao. Sawa inawezekana ni tatizo ambalo lilikuwa nje ya uwezo wetu, but now tuna mkakati gani wa kulishughulikia?
Kwa nini wanasiasa wetu wanashupalia mamabo ya kamati za bunge as if hiyo ndio tatizo letu kwa sasa? Kwa nini hatusikii hata mtu mmoja akituambia mgao utaisha lini?
Mimi ninaamini mgao hautaisha Tanzania. Najua wengine hawawezi kunielewa bu facts ni kama hivi:
1) TZ tunazalisha 750MW na mahitaji ni zaidi ya 800 MW.
2) Demand inaongezeka by 14% ambayo ni 112 MW, hii ina maana lazima kwa mwaka tuongeze production by 150MW ili tuweze kutosheleza demand tuu
3) Ili kuwa na umeme usio na maatizo lazima tuwe na kitu kinachoitwa spinning reserve, huu ni umeme wa ziada baada ya demand ambao utatumika iwapo kuna power plant itapata matatizo. South Afrika wana spinning reserve ya 8000 MW (8 GW) na bado wana invest for the next 20 years.
Sasa sisi tutaendeleaje na kushupalia haya makamati ya bunge???????????Hakuna manufaa yoyote zaidi ya kujiandaa kwa uchaguzi wa 2015. Inauma hasa unapoona jirani yako anamwachisha mtoro wake shule kwa kukosa ada kuokana na biashara yake ya welding kuathiriwa na mgao wa umeme. Tanzania hatuma shida ya energy sources. una shida ya maadili ya kuileea nchi maendeleo.