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Madafu Yakatangebe Dola, ni ya kudumu au?

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Ufunuo wa Yohana, Oct 12, 2007.

  1. U

    Ufunuo wa Yohana JF-Expert Member

    #1
    Oct 12, 2007
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    Jamani angalieni jinsi shilingi inavyopata nguvu haraka zidi ya foreign curency, sijui ndiyo itadumu au ni ya muda tu!!

    http://www.moneylinktz.com/rates.htm

    Au ndiyo pesa za misaada zimeanza kushuka kutoka ughaibuni
    tutaishi kwa misaada mpaka lini?

    Tahadhari:
    ikija kushuti sasa mpaka 1500 Tsh mtaniambia kwa dola
     
  2. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

    #2
    Oct 12, 2007
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    Usijali shillingi kupata nguvu hivi sasa, dollar ya marekani iko kwenye mgogoro mkubwa inabadilishwa kwa mfano £1.00 = $ 2.00 hivi sasa. Compare na mwanzo wa mwaka £1.00 = $ 1.45 (kama sikosei) kwa hiyo ukiangalia kwa haraka haraka tu wamepoteza almost 50% ya value yake mwanzoni mwa mwaka. Angalia vile vile Euro imekuwa very strong against the USD.

    Sifikirii BOT wana-mechanism nzuri ya kulinganisha thamani ya shillingi.

    Soma hapa
     
  3. Insurgent

    Insurgent JF-Expert Member

    #3
    Oct 19, 2007
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    Sio kweli dollar imepoteza 50% ya value yake kutokea mwanzo wa mwaka huu.
    Value ya exchange ilikuwa £1.00 = US$ 1.9581 (January 2007) na sasa ni £1.00 = US$ 2.033
    Kwa hiyo dollar imepoteza 3.8% ya value yake.(JAN TO NOW)

    Sasa tukija kwa TShs,
    Mwanzoni mwa mwaka huu 1US$ = 1261.73TShs
    Sasa hivi 1US$ = 1146.97TShs
    Kwa hiyo shilingi imegain kwa 9.1%(JAN TO NOW)

    Ukiangalia haraka haraka utaona shilingi imegain 3.8% kutokana na dollar kudepreciate lakini imegain 5.3% more not related to dollar depreciation. Tuvute Subra...
     
  4. m

    mapinno Member

    #4
    Oct 19, 2007
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    Kupanda thamani kwa Tshs ni suala la muda tu na sio akisi ya hali halisi. endapo taasisi ya fedha ya nchi itaacha kuwa ya kisiasa na ikawa ya kitaaluma hapo tutaweza kuwa na imani na watakayoyasema kwa uchache.
    __________________
    Kwa nini kuku alivuka barabara?
     
  5. R

    Rwabugiri JF-Expert Member

    #5
    Oct 19, 2007
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    Mapinno ,
    Nakubaliana nawewe, kupanda kwa shilingi sasa hivi kumeingiliwa na mkono wa siasa kupitia BOT ili kupunguza kelele za inflation, mpango huu hauwezi kuwa wa muda mrefu kwani uwezo huo BOT haina, kwahiyo mambo yatarudi kule kule very soon!
     
  6. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

    #6
    Oct 30, 2007
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    Strong shilling slows down Tanzania export market.

    The other day they said we don't export enough, today we aren't competetive because of the strong shilling........ what next?

    BTW who wants a weaker shilling? I wonder.
     
  7. U

    Ufunuo wa Yohana JF-Expert Member

    #7
    Oct 30, 2007
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    Wasiwasi ni pale ambapo ile 42% itakapokuwa tayari imeishakubadilishwa ktk Tshs, shillingi itashuka tena sana dhidi ya fedha za kigeni. By February inaweza kuwa dola 1=1500
     
  8. Bowbow

    Bowbow JF-Expert Member

    #8
    Oct 31, 2007
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    Hawa watu ni businessmen(commercial Banks) na wangain alot of money pale fedha inaposhuka thamani, na kwa sababu wao wanunua Forex T Bills when the interst goes up wao wanaloose. Ndio maana wanadiscourage approach serikali iliyotumia.

    However, that is always temporary situation na lazima ziwe supported na other fiscal and monetary policies.

    Other reasons ambazo hazijasemwa ni kwamba:
    1. Most of traditional crops zinauzwa kipindi hiki so more Forex inflow

    2. July to Sept ndio kipindi kina wageni wengi wanaokuja kama tourist.

    3. Inasemakana pia kuna effect ya tangazo la serikali siku za hivi karibuni kwamba ni kosa la (sijui ni jinai a ua la)kwa wafanya biashara kumcharge mteja in term of FOREX. thus hela ambazo zilikua kwa watu zimerudi kwenye financial institutions (including Bureaul de Change)
    n. k
     
  9. K

    Katibu Tarafa JF-Expert Member

    #9
    Oct 31, 2007
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    Kinachofanyika bongo,ukiona dola imeshuka tena mara nyingi si zaidi ya wiki inapanda tena,huwa bot wanauza dola kwenye inter-banking, na iliufanywa hilikupunguza kasi ya kupanda kwa bei ya dola katika soko la ndani,tanzania inapata kiasi kidogo sana cha dola kutoka nje kwa njia ya watalii.
    ila watanzania wanapeleka nje dola nyingi sana kwa ajili ya kununulia bidhaa mbalimbali kwa ajili ya matumizi ya ndani.fanya utafiti mdogo tu pale kariakoo bidhaa ktk maduka yote pale ni imported je wanapatawapi pesa ya kigeni kwa ajili ya kununulia hizo bidhaa ?pia jaribu kuangalia mara nyingi dola inapanda kwa kasi mwishoni mwa wiki kwa sababu wafanyabiashara wengi huwa wanasafiri kwenda nje ya nchi, na mieze mitatu kabla ya sikukuu za idi na x mas hiki ni kipindi cha kuagiza mali kwa ajili ya sikukuu na muda huu pia dola upanda sana.januari pia dola hupanda pia kwa sababu wafanyabiashara wengi wanakuwa na pesa ya madafu mikononi lakini mwezi wa pili dola inashuka kwa kutumia hivyo vigezo.
     
  10. K

    Koba JF-Expert Member

    #10
    Oct 31, 2007
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    ..globally across the board dollar is weakening,from cable,euro zote ziko all time high against the dollar...shillings is not exceptional lazima iwe strong tuu na it nothing to do with our economy..lakini sometimes weak shillings is not bad na ina reflect kukua kwa uchumi lakini factor out inflation
     
  11. Idimi

    Idimi JF-Expert Member

    #11
    Nov 1, 2007
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    Hili nalo linahitaji mjadala.
    Imekuwaje shilingi ikapanda thamani? Je ni kutokana na mkwara wa waziri Meghji kuwa watu waache kutumia dola hata katika manunuzi ya ndani ya nchi? Ma kuna sababu nyingine!
     
  12. K

    Koba JF-Expert Member

    #12
    Nov 2, 2007
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    ...haha haha hahah huyu mama asinifanye nicheke hapa,naona anatake advantage ya dollar crisis kuchukua sifa ambazo hazipo,ukweli ni kwamba strong shillings kwa sasa has nothing to do na internal factor za Tanzania...kwa ufupi across the board dollar is weak,kama kweli na anachosema angalia pound ilivyo gain kwa shillings,anyway sometimes strong shillings sio nzuri kwa economy yetu na wala sio factor ya kukua kwa uchumi...important ni inflation iwe chini mengine yote mazuri yata fall in!
     
  13. Idimi

    Idimi JF-Expert Member

    #13
    Nov 2, 2007
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    Tatizo la viongozi wetu ni kwamba huwa tarifa technical kama hizo ulizosema hapo huwa wanazifanya ni siasa. Kila kitu siasa!
     
  14. Kasheshe

    Kasheshe JF-Expert Member

    #14
    Nov 2, 2007
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    Huyu mama, mimi simwamini kabisaa!!!!!!!!!!! Nadhani wako wengi wanaoweza ongoza wizara nyeti kama ile, wanaompita huyo mama uwezo kwa mbaaali sana...
     
  15. M

    Mwana Wa Maryam Member

    #15
    Nov 2, 2007
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    Katika kipindi cha miaka mitano thamani ya dollar ya kimarekani imeshuka sana. Kwa mfano, si muda mrefu US 1 = 1.5 Canadian Dollar, US 1 = 1 Euro, 1 UK Pound = US 1.5.

    Sasa hivi, US 1 = 1 Canadian Dollar, US 1 = 1.5 Euro, 1 UK Pound = US 1.8 au 2.

    Kwa kuwa dollar inatumika katika biashara nyingi za kimataifa, kuna uwezekano mkubwa kuwa kukuwa kwa thamani ya shilling kunatokana na kupungua kwa thamani ya dollar ya kimarekani.

    Kwa upande wangu sioni umuhimu mkubwa wa kukua kwa thamani ya shillingi. Naona umuhimu ni kuwa na pesa yenye stability ya thamani.
     
  16. Insurgent

    Insurgent JF-Expert Member

    #16
    Nov 3, 2007
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    Nafikiri thread za dollar VS shilling zingekuwa merged AU watu wangekuwa wanasoma kilichoandikwa kabla kungekuwa hakuna haja ya kuleta Siasa katika mijadala hii.

    Sio kweli TShs imegain ONLY sababu dollar imeshuka thamani.
    Fanyeni Utafiti kabla ya kupost.
     
  17. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

    #17
    Nov 5, 2007
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    Dar exports up, as construction boom drives Zanzibar economy
    Hapo juu walisema hatuwezi ku-export kwa sababu ya kuwa na strong shilling sasa week moja wanasema tumeuza zaidi - Makubwa haya wivu tu unawasumbua. Lets put our house in order.
     
  18. M

    MgonjwaUkimwi JF-Expert Member

    #18
    Nov 6, 2007
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    Mkuu, ni wapi hapo walisema kwamba hatuwezi ku-export kwa sababu ya shiling kuwa strong? Naona umewahukumu bila kosa lolote, au haujasoma hizo postings kwa umakini.

    Post ya kwanza walisema kwamba endapo shilingi itaendelea ku-appreciate ita undermine competitiveness. Hii haina maana kwamba fedha inapo appreciate export za nchi hiyo haziwezi kuongezeka. Kumbuka kwamba kuuzika kwa bidhaa zetu sio function ya bei[thamani ya shiling]tu, bali ni function ya mambo mengi ikiwamo ubora wa bidhaa, taste za wanununuzi,upatikanaji au ukosefu wa bidhaa za substitute,mahitaji ya wanunuzi wa bidhaa zetu, nk. Hivyo basi kama shilingi yetu imepanda dhidi ya fedha nyingine, bado tunaweza kuuza zaidi na zaidi, endapo mambo mengine yanaendelea kuchochea mahitaji ya bidhaa zetu kwa wanunuzi. Naona mkuu hapa unahukumu innocents; hakuna chembe la kosa lililofanyika.
     
  19. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

    #19
    Nov 6, 2007
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    MgonjwaUkimwi

    last week

    Strong shilling slows down Tanzania export market.

    Naona nimewahukumu vizuri kabisa kwani unapokuwa na strong currency bidhaa zako zinakuwa hazinunuliwi kwa wingi na wanunuzi, wengi wanakimbilia kwenye soko nafuu kwa kujipatia huduma. (Kama bidhaa hizo zipo katika standard ambayo mnunuzi anaitaka). Kwa ukweli kama mahindi yanapatikana Tanzania na SA na bei yetu ikawa kubwa kupita kiasi sidhani Kenya ama nchi nyingine yoyote itanunua mahindi yetu, yatadoda tu. Swala la usafiri na competitiveness linakuja kama kuna substitute ya bidhaa kama hakuna unakuwa unabembeleza source yako. Nafikiri haya ni machozi ya mamba.

    Uko right kutokana na kusema kwamba kuna vitu vingi vinachangia kutokuuza bidhaa zako, tatizo letu kubwa Tanzania limekuwa la ubora wa packing kwenye standard inayokubalika kimataifa (ingawaje kuna improvement). Ukweli wa mambo kuna watu wachache ambao wanafaidi sana kwa shilligi yetu kuwa weak na ndio hawa wanapiga kelele kutaka kuona kwamba status quo inaendelea ili waendelee kufaidi, inabidi tuwe macho na hilo ili tuweze kuwasaidia wazalishaji na WTZ wote kwa ujumla.

    BTW mbona siku hizi umepotea sana tunahitaji nondo zako mkuu.
     
  20. M

    MgonjwaUkimwi JF-Expert Member

    #20
    Nov 6, 2007
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    Mkuu Dua, nipo nipo. Si unajuwa tena kazi na dawa! Nikiwa na muda wakucheza naingia JF, nisipokuwa nao itabidi tu nipigike ili kuhakikisha naongeza mahudhurio ya maliwatoni.

    Tukirejea kwenye kukata issue, bado mkuu naona umehukumu pasipo kosa. Upo uwezekano mkubwa kwamba shilingi ika appreciate na bado export zikaongezeka katika kipindi fulani. Yapo mengi yanayosababisha hili kutokea na mambo haya nilishayaeleza hapo awali. Ila la muhimu ambalo sikuliongelea awali ni time-lag; ambapo wanunuzi wa bidhaa zetu ambazo tayari walishafanya committment za kununua bidhaa watahitaji muda ili wabadiri purchase pattens zao ili ku-reflect thamani mpya ya shilingi.

    Mfano dola ya Canada sasa imeipita ya US, bado bei za vitu Canada zipo pale pale, kwa sababu itachukuwa muda kua-djust. Kadhalika kupanda kwa shilingi theoretically "kunategemewa" kupunguza export volume, lakini hii itachukuwa muda. Time-lag wakati mwingine inasababishwa na imani za wanunuzi, kama wanaona kupanda kwa shilingi ni mvua za rasha-rasha tu, wala hawatapunguza manunuzi ya bidhaa zetu. Kadhalika wakiona kwamba shilingi itaendelea kupanda kwa kipindi kirefu wataongeza manunuzi yao leo ili ku-hedge hasara wanazoweza kupata mbeleni. Hivyo ni very possible kwamba shilingi inaweza kupaa na bado exports zetu zikaongezeka in short-run, kama posting zilivyosema.
     
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